Greg Cosell’s NFL draft preview: Examining QB Jameis Winston

I think, like many others, that Jameis Winston is the best quarterback prospect in this class. But I want to take a moment to emphasize a key word there: prospect.

Everybody in the NFL draft is a prospect. No matter how many times people say a player “can’t miss,” they’re all prospects. Every player coming into the NFL has positives and negatives. The negatives can be worked on because the players are young. If the flaws aren’t fixed, they’ll become blemishes that will prevent them from playing at a high level in the NFL.

That’s how I like to present draft prospects. There are pluses and minuses to them all. There aren’t many Andrew Lucks, who come along with very few flaws.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Winston.

I broke down six of his games for this piece: against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Boston College and Oregon. Here is what he does well and what he’ll need to work on:

Positives

Against Virginia last season, Winston threw a 22-yard touchdown pass to Rashad Greene that showed a lot of positive traits and attributes needed to play quarterback from the pocket in the NFL.

There was pressure right in his face, and he still stood in strong against it, throwing as he got hit. That’s a strength of his game in general. Winston had to throw with good anticipation because of the rush, which is a must in the NFL. He got rid of the ball under pressure and still had good ball placement. It was the kind of play you need to make to succeed at the next level.

It’s just a one-play snapshot (it comes at the 18-second mark on the video above), but through his two years starting at Florida State he showed these skills and others on a consistent basis.

He has an edge because there are NFL route concepts and combinations in FSU’s passing game. He understands that and has a three-step/five-step/seven-step drop foundation. That’s becoming rare with many colleges using spread offenses. Winston shows natural anticipation on different kinds of throws. He can turn it loose before his receivers come out of the their breaks, and this showed up in every game I looked at. That’s rare for a college quarterback. He showed progression reading ability, eliminating what wasn’t there quickly. That’s a very important trait in the NFL.

Winston can make firm touch throws that are staples of an NFL passing game. He has a good feel throwing between the numbers. He can throw with touch and pace, taking something off the ball when needed. When he throws to the intermediate levels, he has the ability to drive the ball because he has a strong arm. He can get his hip through those throws to the intermediate levels, with good weight transfer, which allows him to drive the ball.

One thing I really liked about Winston is how oblivious he was to pressure. That’s a great thing. He can make strong throws from the pocket while not reacting to pressure around him. That’s a great skill to have in the NFL.

These are all reasons Winston is a highly regarded prospect in this draft. There’s a lot to like.

Negatives

Although Winston shows a lot of good things, there are concerns as you project him to the NFL. There will be things he has to clean up in the pros.

The more film I watched, the more I saw an erratic decision maker. He walked a very fine line between making sticks throws into tight windows and forcing balls into the teeth of coverage. I saw him have some trouble reading underneath coverage between the numbers, and that has to be factored into his evaluation. It’s a positive that he’s confident in willing to turn it loose into tight windows, especially at intermediate levels, but again, he walks a fine line.

There were also flashes of inaccuracy with poor ball location. Will that be an issue in the NFL with more bodies around him?

I also saw some fundamental issues Winston will need to work on. The footwork on his drop and in the pocket will need to be cleaned up. He has a tendency to be sloppy and undisciplined with that. Also, while his initial ball position when he sets up in the pocket is very good, he has a tendency at times to drop the ball to his waist as he begins his deliver. That increases delivery time and at times leads to high throws. There’s little bit of a windup in his delivery.

At times Winston over-strides, throwing with too wide of a base. On those occasions he was a little elongated with a long stride, which required functional space. Will Winston put added stress on his offensive line due to his stride and a release that is slower than teams would ideally desire it to be?

These are all things that the film showed on Winston. There are a lot of good things, and a lot of things that he’ll need to work on as he enters the NFL. That’s not a surprise; all players come into the NFL with a lot of growing to do.

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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.