Could Cards' Heyward be next $200M player?
Jason Heyward has a higher WAR than Giancarlo Stanton. (Getty Images)
JUPITER, Fla. — Could Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward join baseball’s ultra elite and become the 11th $200 million player?
While Heyward isn’t a consistent slugger and hasn’t put up any numbers that would lead many to view him as a $200 million player, one major-league GM said he foresees Heyward getting $200 million as a free agent, or very close to it, if he doesn’t quite hit that figure.
“He’s the best defensive right fielder in the game. He’s young. He has upside. He’s a leader with great makeup. And his WAR is higher than Giancarlo Stanton,” the GM pointed out.
All those things are true, even the part about Heyward having a higher lifetime WAR than Stanton (Heyward’s WAR is 21.3 compared to 18.1 for Stanton, though Heyward has played a half-year more). But Heyward, for all his potential, doesn’t have the raw power numbers — not even close to Stanton, in fact. Last year, Heyward hit only 11 home runs, and had only a .384 slugging percentage, though his .429 career mark is respectable.
All things considered, the $200 million figure seemed a bit high, and upon checking, six of seven other GMs said they couldn’t see it. Though one other GM, stipulating that he’d need a nice season in his first year in St. Louis, opined that he wouldn’t rule out $200 million for Heyward.
“It only takes one,” that GM pointed out.
That GM had another salient point: While there is expected to be a long list of excellent free-agent starting pitchers this coming winter, including David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Ian Kennedy (plus Zack Greinke if he decides to opt out with $71 million and three years to go), the list of bona fide positional stars is neither as long or nor as impressive. It includes Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Jimmy Rollins (and Alex Gordon if he doesn’t pick up his $12.5 million player option).
The great majority of GMs and assistant GMs consulted regarding Heyward said they see Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, who surprised folks by signing for as high as $130 million and $153 million, as fair comps — and one pointed out Ellsbury is more accomplished, a center fielder and a terrific leadoff hitter.
Of course, almost no free agent is as young as Heyward (he’ll be 26 next winter), and few are as flattered by their WAR numbers. Stanton got a record $325 million deal this past winter from the Marlins, and that was two years from free agency.
Stanton and star pitcher Max Scherzer joined the ranks of $200 million-plus deals this past offseason. The others were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Clayton Kershaw, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez (twice).
One GM went so far as to call it “crazy” to suggest Heyward could get $200 million, and some others were fairly skeptical, as well. The executives in that camp suggested he hasn’t shown enough power or hit enough, especially against left-handers, to warrant that type of contract. Several pointed to the Choo deal as fair, though even those execs acknowledged he’d shoot much higher than that. One said he could see $20 million a year (though not for 10 years), and one thought only $15 million to $17 million.
However, the second GM said he could see it: “While the triple slash numbers don’t do him justice, he is very well rounded,” the GM said “He fields his position well and runs the bases well. He’s a complete player.”
A few pointed out that if he were to get $200 million, or anywhere close to it, it probably wouldn’t be with the Cardinals, who to this point have seemed to have a limit of around $120 million, which is what Matt Holliday received on his record Cardinals deal six years ago, and appeared to be about their limit in initial talks with Scherzer and Jon Lester, the top two free agents this past winter, who went to the Nationals and Cubs.
Heyward, talking earlier in camp, suggested he loves being a Cardinal already. “I hope I never have to leave,” Heyward said. “I didn’t ever want to leave Atlanta, and I hope I never have to leave here.”
Heyward generally has very good memories of the Braves, his hometown team, but he’s happy to be in St. Louis. “I feel like I had a good place to start. I was very fortunate to play for Bobby Cox and other good coaches, and to play with one Hall of Famer, Chipper Jones, and a second, Brian McCann, who has a chance,” Heyward said. “Now I’m in an even better situation.”
Some say Heyward didn’t love batting leadoff last year in Fredi Gonzalez’s lineup, and when asked where he might hit this year, he answered, “It won’t be leadoff.” That is true, as the Cardinals have Matt Carpenter in that role.
Heyward said he wasn’t shocked to be traded, as he was a year from free agency with no ongoing contract dialogue. “There was never a circumstance as far as working it out,” Heyward said. “They didn’t know what it would take. I know we never had any conversations. So I’m definitely not surprised I was traded.”
It is true there was no contract talk with Atlanta this winter before be was traded for young right-hander Shelby Miller, which was considered a big price considering Heyward is tied for only one more year to St. Louis. There were some Braves contract attempts earlier in his career by the Braves to lock him, though nothing just prior to the trade, and nothing on the order of what he may receive in free agency.
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