The Numbers Game: Impact Analysis by Categories
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Today’s edition of the Numbers Game looks at how reliant players are on a particular category. For example, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is making 1.9 three-pointers this season while flirting with late-round value. We can estimate that 3-pointers have a 1.59 ‘Impact’ for KCP, so his fantasy value is tethered to perimeter shooting and a cold streak (he had missed 17 straight 3s before making one on Tuesday) will destroy his appeal. His next-highest Impacts are all negative: FG% (-1.25), rebounds (-0.67) and assists (-0.67). Without those 3-pointers, KCP would drop from being a top-160 player to barely cracking the top-220, just ahead of Chris Anderson, Lavoy Allen and Pablo Prigioni.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $150,000 fantasy basketball league for Wednesday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $10,000. Starts Wednesday at 7pm ET. Enter now!
This analysis is restricted to the top-150 players as gauged by season-long, per-game averages in 8-cat leagues (so you won’t find KCP listed). I’ve eliminated all players who are averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game and/or haven’t appeared in at least 15 games. I pulled the raw statistics from the inimitable BasketballMonster.com, as their formatting is cleaner and simpler than NBA.com and most other sites, after which I manipulated the numbers in a variety of ways — you can see the results here.
Before posting the results of the analysis, here is a quick summary of my methodology:
1) Compile league-wide stats and eliminate ineligible players
2) Determine league means and standard deviations by categories
3) Determine each player’s z-score for points (PTS), 3-pointers (3PT), rebounds (REB), assists (AST), steals (STL), blocks (BLK), weighted field goal percentage (FG%) and weighted free throw percentage (FT%)
4) Rank players by cumulative value, then eliminate anyone outside the top-150 and re-calculate means/st. dev/z-scores
5) Divide each player’s category values into their cumulative value to arrive at player-by-player estimations of the ‘Impact’ of each category
6) Turn it into a chart with appropriate formatting, then share it
Two more quick notes: The red and green formatting should be read horizontally for each player, not vertically for each category. You’ll also notice a block of 18 players who don’t have any formatting — the numbers you see are their actual z-scores for that category, not an ‘Impact’ number. This is because their cumulative values were all very close to zero, so when you divided into it the results were unreliable. If I were smarter I could figure out a solution, but for now I’ve just skirted the problem.
Player value ‘Impact’ by category:
| Name | 8-cat value | PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% |
| James Harden | 1.12 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| Stephen Curry | 1.08 | 0.19 | 0.27 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 0.24 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Anthony Davis | 0.98 | 0.23 | -0.12 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| Russell Westbrook | 0.84 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.29 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Durant | 0.76 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.05 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 0.67 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Chris Paul | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.47 | 0.26 | -0.12 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| LeBron James | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.12 | -0.20 |
| Damian Lillard | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.34 | -0.06 | 0.26 | 0.15 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| Klay Thompson | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.55 | -0.20 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.22 |
| Kyrie Irving | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.28 | -0.21 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jimmy Butler | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.34 |
| John Wall | 0.42 | 0.13 | -0.07 | -0.11 | 0.75 | 0.42 | -0.03 | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| Jeff Teague | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.01 | -0.32 | 0.48 | 0.40 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| Eric Bledsoe | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.34 | 0.39 | -0.02 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| Pau Gasol | 0.37 | 0.23 | -0.30 | 0.66 | -0.06 | -0.44 | 0.60 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 0.35 | 0.56 | -0.18 | 0.53 | -0.19 | -0.20 | 0.17 | -0.10 | 0.41 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 0.34 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.20 | -0.11 | 0.75 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.07 |
| Marc Gasol | 0.34 | 0.24 | -0.35 | 0.25 | 0.07 | -0.13 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Paul Millsap | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.27 | -0.03 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| Gordon Hayward | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.26 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 0.30 | -0.16 | -0.09 | 0.26 |
| Kyle Lowry | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | -0.16 | 0.61 | 0.37 | -0.29 | -0.40 | 0.18 |
| Jrue Holiday | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.29 | 0.64 | 0.48 | -0.04 | -0.14 | 0.17 |
| Rudy Gay | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.08 | 0.45 |
| Draymond Green | 0.26 | -0.24 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.49 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| Brandon Knight | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.49 | -0.26 | 0.38 | 0.36 | -0.33 | -0.31 | 0.44 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 0.25 | 0.87 | 0.25 | 0.15 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.16 | -0.24 | 0.20 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 0.24 | 0.48 | -0.50 | 0.87 | -0.26 | -0.31 | 0.05 | 0.68 | -0.01 |
| Serge Ibaka | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.40 | -0.51 | -0.62 | 1.38 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Al Horford | 0.20 | 0.11 | -0.51 | 0.36 | 0.03 | -0.30 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.04 |
| Kevin Love | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.61 | 0.96 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -0.15 | -0.33 | 0.25 |
| Darren Collison | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.54 | 0.62 | 0.59 | -0.33 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Blake Griffin | 0.17 | 1.07 | -0.62 | 0.43 | 0.52 | -0.17 | -0.24 | 0.56 | -0.55 |
| Kemba Walker | 0.17 | 0.58 | 0.41 | -0.43 | 0.56 | 0.47 | -0.09 | -0.94 | 0.44 |
| Kobe Bryant | 0.16 | 1.08 | 0.40 | 0.01 | 0.68 | 0.42 | -0.46 | -1.66 | 0.53 |
| Chris Bosh | 0.16 | 0.95 | 0.33 | 0.34 | -0.31 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 0.03 |
| Victor Oladipo | 0.15 | 0.43 | 0.05 | -0.36 | 0.22 | 0.86 | -0.49 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| Monta Ellis | 0.15 | 0.69 | 0.13 | -0.82 | 0.33 | 1.38 | -0.35 | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| Mike Conley | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.41 | -0.63 | 0.66 | 0.41 | -0.54 | -0.25 | 0.67 |
| Danny Green | 0.14 | -0.44 | 1.22 | -0.32 | -0.47 | 0.47 | 0.58 | -0.34 | 0.29 |
| Ricky Rubio | 0.13 | -0.59 | -0.35 | 0.06 | 2.10 | 1.50 | -0.76 | -1.23 | 0.28 |
| Tim Duncan | 0.13 | -0.06 | -0.94 | 1.15 | -0.13 | -0.35 | 1.47 | 0.35 | -0.49 |
| Kyle Korver | 0.11 | -0.39 | 2.17 | -0.49 | -0.24 | -0.69 | -0.20 | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| Ty Lawson | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.03 | -0.86 | 2.76 | 0.50 | -0.87 | -0.38 | -0.49 |
| Dwyane Wade | 0.10 | 1.54 | -0.71 | -0.73 | 0.96 | 0.32 | -0.52 | 0.26 | -0.11 |
| Trevor Ariza | 0.10 | -0.46 | 1.60 | -0.10 | -0.39 | 2.06 | -0.83 | -1.36 | 0.48 |
| Kevin Martin | 0.08 | 1.55 | 1.67 | -0.81 | -0.65 | -0.56 | -1.34 | -0.59 | 1.73 |
| Wesley Matthews | 0.08 | 0.41 | 2.88 | -0.93 | -0.52 | 0.69 | -1.02 | -0.38 | -0.14 |
| Tyson Chandler | 0.07 | -1.39 | -1.89 | 3.44 | -1.47 | -1.56 | 1.38 | 2.71 | -0.22 |
| Derrick Favors | 0.06 | 0.67 | -1.93 | 1.58 | -1.20 | -0.70 | 2.41 | 2.18 | -2.01 |
| Tyreke Evans* | 0.05 | 0.52 | -0.17 | -0.15 | 1.50 | 0.41 | -0.36 | -0.59 | -0.68 |
| Tobias Harris* | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.28 | -0.60 | -0.02 | -0.16 | -0.05 | 0.26 |
| Brandon Jennings* | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1.04 | -1.19 | 1.58 | 0.07 | -0.93 | -1.22 | 0.70 |
| Isaiah Thomas* | 0.02 | 0.42 | 1.09 | -1.23 | 0.37 | -0.27 | -0.94 | -0.71 | 1.51 |
| Zach Randolph* | 0.02 | 0.44 | -1.13 | 2.20 | -0.63 | -0.14 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -0.31 |
| Greg Monroe* | 0.02 | 0.32 | -1.24 | 1.86 | -0.55 | -0.02 | -0.36 | 0.62 | -0.47 |
| Goran Dragic* | 0.01 | 0.39 | 0.26 | -0.80 | 0.45 | -0.02 | -0.81 | 0.73 | -0.07 |
| Al Jefferson* | 0.00 | 0.65 | -1.20 | 1.22 | -0.66 | -0.71 | 1.08 | 0.47 | -0.83 |
| Robert Covington* | 0.00 | -0.32 | 1.60 | -0.36 | -0.84 | 0.99 | -0.41 | -1.11 | 0.46 |
| Khris Middleton* | -0.01 | -0.44 | 0.40 | -0.42 | -0.55 | 1.17 | -0.81 | 0.16 | 0.43 |
| Dirk Nowitzki* | -0.01 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.12 | -0.63 | -1.22 | -0.35 | -0.17 | 1.22 |
| Gorgui Dieng* | -0.01 | -1.15 | -1.22 | 1.10 | -0.56 | -0.29 | 1.53 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| DeAndre Jordan* | -0.01 | -0.73 | -1.24 | 3.40 | -1.19 | -0.06 | 2.52 | 2.38 | -5.22 |
| Nerlens Noel* | -0.02 | -1.25 | -1.24 | 0.77 | -0.73 | 1.70 | 2.02 | -0.23 | -1.24 |
| Hassan Whiteside* | -0.03 | -0.79 | -1.24 | 1.59 | -1.43 | -1.22 | 2.75 | 1.78 | -1.75 |
| Chandler Parsons* | -0.04 | 0.21 | 1.22 | -0.30 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.59 | -0.21 | -0.32 |
| Nicolas Batum* | -0.04 | -1.11 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.87 | 0.34 |
| Mo Williams* | -0.05 | -0.11 | 0.88 | -1.25 | 1.65 | -0.64 | -0.77 | -0.92 | 0.70 |
| Jared Sullinger | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.06 | 1.71 | -0.67 | -1.24 | 0.07 | -0.55 | -0.24 |
| Brook Lopez | -0.06 | 0.39 | -2.05 | 0.66 | -2.04 | -1.97 | 2.68 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | -0.06 | 0.11 | -0.65 | 0.01 | 3.03 | 1.74 | -0.72 | -2.56 | -1.96 |
| Bradley Beal | -0.07 | 0.13 | 1.17 | -0.95 | -0.13 | 0.62 | -1.01 | -1.17 | 0.33 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | -0.08 | -0.65 | -1.49 | 0.50 | -0.46 | 0.06 | 0.90 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
| Eric Gordon | -0.08 | -0.33 | 2.03 | -1.36 | 0.42 | -0.40 | -0.87 | -0.96 | 0.46 |
| Markieff Morris | -0.08 | 0.17 | -0.43 | 0.10 | -0.62 | 0.56 | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| Derrick Rose | -0.08 | 1.06 | 0.82 | -1.15 | 1.00 | -1.02 | -0.62 | -1.69 | 0.61 |
| Jamal Crawford | -0.09 | 0.48 | 1.26 | -1.57 | -0.37 | -0.33 | -0.83 | -1.40 | 1.76 |
| Rudy Gobert | -0.10 | -1.63 | -1.26 | 1.01 | -0.97 | -0.70 | 2.71 | 1.00 | -1.15 |
| Marcin Gortat | -0.10 | -0.57 | -1.25 | 1.18 | -1.02 | -1.23 | 1.05 | 1.23 | -0.39 |
| DeMarre Carroll | -0.10 | -0.55 | 0.90 | -0.19 | -0.79 | 0.63 | -0.73 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| David West | -0.10 | -0.45 | -1.12 | 0.59 | 0.02 | -0.48 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.02 |
| Terrence Jones | -0.11 | -0.42 | -0.77 | 0.55 | -0.97 | -1.09 | 2.01 | 0.81 | -1.11 |
| Thaddeus Young | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.59 | -0.24 | -0.29 | 1.40 | -0.51 | -0.08 | -0.58 |
| Joe Johnson | -0.11 | 0.10 | 0.63 | -0.28 | 0.11 | -0.64 | -0.63 | -0.51 | 0.21 |
| George Hill | -0.11 | -0.13 | 0.48 | -0.65 | 0.52 | -0.26 | -0.53 | -0.44 | 0.01 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | -0.12 | -0.48 | -1.06 | 0.96 | -1.12 | -1.22 | 0.67 | 0.98 | 0.27 |
| Lou Williams | -0.12 | 0.13 | 0.86 | -1.25 | -0.51 | 0.23 | -0.75 | -0.89 | 1.18 |
| DeMar DeRozan | -0.12 | 0.83 | -0.72 | -0.47 | -0.02 | 0.59 | -0.68 | -1.20 | 0.68 |
| Luol Deng | -0.12 | 0.01 | 0.08 | -0.20 | -0.49 | -0.15 | -0.48 | 0.29 | -0.06 |
| Deron Williams | -0.12 | -0.25 | 0.22 | -0.79 | 1.09 | -0.08 | -0.52 | -1.12 | 0.45 |
| Andrew Bogut | -0.15 | -1.24 | -0.83 | 0.62 | -0.19 | -0.62 | 1.13 | 0.45 | -0.32 |
| J.R. Smith | -0.16 | -0.38 | 0.80 | -0.61 | -0.09 | 0.34 | -0.45 | -0.56 | -0.05 |
| Jarrett Jack | -0.16 | -0.31 | -0.43 | -0.60 | 0.50 | 0.01 | -0.48 | -0.18 | 0.49 |
| Patrick Beverley | -0.16 | -0.59 | 0.86 | -0.29 | 0.04 | 0.08 | -0.28 | -0.73 | -0.09 |
| P.J. Tucker | -0.16 | -0.78 | 0.08 | 0.15 | -0.51 | 0.50 | -0.36 | -0.09 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Chandler | -0.16 | -0.08 | 0.63 | 0.08 | -0.47 | -0.53 | -0.26 | -0.45 | 0.09 |
| Tony Wroten | -0.17 | 0.32 | 0.16 | -0.63 | 0.54 | 0.76 | -0.38 | -0.76 | -1.01 |
| J.J. Redick | -0.17 | 0.09 | 1.01 | -0.79 | -0.44 | -0.78 | -0.54 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Mario Chalmers | -0.17 | -0.48 | -0.08 | -0.66 | 0.25 | 0.86 | -0.50 | -0.44 | 0.04 |
| Joakim Noah | -0.18 | -0.88 | -0.71 | 0.95 | 0.30 | -0.50 | 0.56 | -0.15 | -0.58 |
| Ryan Anderson | -0.18 | 0.02 | 0.78 | -0.12 | -0.58 | -0.56 | -0.33 | -0.58 | 0.36 |
| Reggie Jackson | -0.18 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.32 | 0.34 | -0.25 | -0.48 | -0.44 | 0.39 |
| Jeremy Lin | -0.19 | -0.42 | -0.08 | -0.61 | 0.36 | 0.14 | -0.22 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Green | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.13 | -0.29 | -0.34 | -0.41 | -0.20 | -0.41 | 0.41 |
| Rajon Rondo | -0.21 | -0.61 | -0.34 | 0.02 | 1.08 | 0.40 | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.73 |
| Andre Drummond | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.58 | 1.33 | -0.56 | -0.13 | 0.88 | 0.31 | -2.09 |
| Josh Smith | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.17 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.59 | -0.41 | -1.11 |
| Robin Lopez | -0.22 | -0.48 | -0.56 | 0.24 | -0.45 | -0.73 | 0.68 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| Dwight Howard | -0.22 | 0.19 | -0.54 | 0.91 | -0.38 | -0.40 | 0.52 | 0.80 | -2.11 |
| Paul Pierce | -0.23 | -0.18 | 0.33 | -0.24 | -0.25 | -0.42 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| Corey Brewer | -0.23 | -0.29 | -0.07 | -0.37 | -0.17 | 0.53 | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| Manu Ginobili | -0.23 | -0.27 | 0.21 | -0.43 | 0.25 | -0.08 | -0.27 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| Rodney Stuckey | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.33 | 0.00 | -0.20 | -0.37 | -0.06 | 0.27 |
| Andrew Wiggins | -0.24 | 0.13 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.26 | 0.07 | -0.03 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
| Matt Barnes | -0.24 | -0.45 | 0.30 | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.17 | -0.02 | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| Tony Allen | -0.24 | -0.57 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.35 | 0.90 | -0.12 | 0.12 | -0.27 |
| Timofey Mozgov | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.50 | 0.31 | -0.50 | -0.59 | 0.48 | 0.35 | -0.09 |
| Roy Hibbert | -0.25 | -0.35 | -0.50 | 0.23 | -0.40 | -0.78 | 0.72 | -0.11 | 0.20 |
| Kelly Olynyk | -0.25 | -0.35 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.10 | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
| Tony Parker | -0.25 | 0.02 | -0.16 | -0.57 | 0.31 | -0.36 | -0.41 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Amar’e Stoudemire | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.47 | 0.08 | -0.41 | -0.42 | 0.08 | 0.43 | -0.07 |
| Kenneth Faried | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.47 | 0.45 | -0.35 | -0.25 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.35 |
| Avery Bradley | -0.26 | -0.05 | 0.26 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -0.02 | -0.30 | -0.25 | 0.03 |
| Enes Kanter | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.37 | 0.35 | -0.43 | -0.52 | -0.21 | 0.23 | -0.01 |
| C.J. Watson | -0.27 | -0.39 | 0.08 | -0.39 | 0.09 | -0.14 | -0.29 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| Patrick Patterson | -0.27 | -0.51 | 0.15 | -0.03 | -0.25 | -0.28 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.02 |
| Jabari Parker | -0.27 | -0.18 | -0.39 | -0.02 | -0.26 | 0.17 | -0.28 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| Anderson Varejao | -0.27 | -0.38 | -0.45 | 0.12 | -0.31 | -0.26 | -0.03 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| James Johnson | -0.27 | -0.50 | -0.37 | -0.24 | -0.31 | -0.17 | 0.29 | 0.43 | -0.11 |
| Jordan Hill | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.44 | 0.31 | -0.30 | -0.47 | 0.10 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Courtney Lee | -0.28 | -0.32 | 0.12 | -0.45 | -0.18 | -0.04 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alec Burks | -0.28 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.34 | -0.28 | -0.35 | 0.25 |
| O.J. Mayo | -0.30 | -0.20 | 0.17 | -0.38 | -0.06 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.23 | 0.14 |
| Ben McLemore | -0.30 | -0.19 | 0.30 | -0.35 | -0.26 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| Nikola Pekovic | -0.30 | -0.12 | -0.41 | 0.27 | -0.36 | -0.32 | -0.14 | -0.19 | 0.28 |
| Donatas Motiejunas | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.15 | 0.04 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.11 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| Taj Gibson | -0.30 | -0.29 | -0.41 | 0.12 | -0.30 | -0.38 | 0.33 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| Langston Galloway | -0.31 | -0.26 | 0.09 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.19 | -0.38 | -0.02 |
| Wesley Johnson | -0.31 | -0.34 | 0.10 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.20 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| Arron Afflalo | -0.32 | -0.04 | 0.20 | -0.29 | -0.20 | -0.34 | -0.30 | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| Jose Calderon | -0.32 | -0.38 | 0.15 | -0.33 | 0.22 | -0.22 | -0.34 | -0.19 | 0.09 |
| Amir Johnson | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.30 | 0.03 | -0.26 | -0.32 | 0.08 | 0.37 | -0.23 |
| Evan Turner | -0.32 | -0.40 | -0.22 | -0.08 | 0.24 | -0.09 | -0.23 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| Devin Harris | -0.33 | -0.38 | 0.11 | -0.44 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.23 | -0.19 | 0.10 |
| Ed Davis | -0.33 | -0.41 | -0.38 | 0.21 | -0.28 | -0.31 | 0.31 | 0.39 | -0.52 |
| Harrison Barnes | -0.33 | -0.29 | 0.05 | 0.01 | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.24 | 0.07 | -0.10 |
| D.J. Augustin | -0.33 | -0.26 | 0.01 | -0.41 | 0.21 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.21 | 0.25 |
| Jodie Meeks | -0.33 | -0.20 | 0.08 | -0.45 | -0.24 | -0.01 | -0.29 | -0.26 | 0.37 |
| Alex Len | -0.34 | -0.52 | -0.36 | 0.10 | -0.38 | -0.35 | 0.44 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
| John Henson | -0.36 | -0.44 | -0.34 | -0.12 | -0.30 | -0.40 | 0.55 | 0.24 | -0.19 |
A few clear trends emerge. The top-50 players tend to have high Impact ratings for points and weighted FT percentages, which is no surprise since they’re almost invariably go-to scorers for their respective teams (the heavy Impact of FT% in the early rounds also confirms some of my previous analyses). This same top-40 group doesn’t rely on rebounds or blocks for much of their value, which is unsurprising when you consider that 10 of the top 15 players this season (per-game) are pure guards — the exceptions are Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler.
The top-50 players are also generally weak in FG%. It’s not until players 100-150 that we see consistently positive field goal numbers — even the middle-50 players are nearly as weak as the top-50, making FG% a uniquely late-round category. That’s due largely to the plethora of PF/Cs who play limited minutes but still eke into late-round value on the strength of their FG%, boards and blocks. The hardest categories to find outside of the top-100 are points, assists and to a lesser extent steals.
Points
Keep in mind that we’re not talking about which players contribute the most points among the top-150 players, only which players rely most heavily on the Impact of scoring for their overall fantasy value. Kevin Martin‘s value relies on points more than any other player, followed closely by Dwyane Wade. They are followed by Kobe Bryant, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, DeMar DeRozan and Monta Ellis.
The guys who rely the least on scoring are Rudy Gobert, Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Joakim Noah, P.J. Tucker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rajon Rondo, Patrick Beverley and Ricky Rubio. That’s a fairly predictable group of low-scoring centers and guards, with a few across-the-board wingmen thrown in for good measure. Gobert’s fantasy value hinges the least on scoring, making him somewhat immune to a low usage rate and poor offensive outings.
3-pointers
The results here are exactly what you’d expect. Wesley Matthews was the most reliant on 3s prior to his awful Achilles injury. Next in line are Kyle Korver, Eric Gordon, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Jamal Crawford, Danny Green and Bradley Beal. It’s worth noting that Klay Thompson comes in 19th for reliance on perimeter shooting, a testament to his growth as an all-around weapon this season.
The bottom guys in this category aren’t worth mentioning since it’s an obvious group of centers, but a few non-PF/Cs do make the bottom 50. In ascending order, they are Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan, Dwyane Wade, Michael Carter-Williams, Tony Allen, Jarrett Jack, James Johnson, Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo.
Rebounds
Now that we’ve established the meaning of these ‘Impact’ numbers, I’ll streamline the process by listing some key players at the top or bottom of their respective categories.
Top-10: Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan, Zach Randolph, Greg Monroe, Jared Sullinger, Hassan Whiteside, Derrick Favors, Andre Drummond, Marcin Gortat and Al Jefferson.
Bottom-5 (who aren’t guards): Chandler Parsons, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Paul Pierce and Thaddeus Young.
Assists
Top-5 (who aren’t guards): We know that Michael Carter-Williams, Ty Lawson and Ricky Rubio rely heavily on assists for fantasy value. The first 10 non-guards we come across, however, are Nicolas Batum, Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Joakim Noah, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Draymond Green, Josh Smith, Kevin Durant and Al Horford.
Bottom-5 (who are guards): Some guards don’t need assists to help owners in standard fantasy leagues, including Robert Covington, Kevin Martin, Wes Matthews, Lou Williams and Danny Green. The first pure guards to make the list are Langston Galloway, Devin Harris and C.J. Watson, though they all qualify as combo guards.
Steals
Top-10: Trevor Ariza, Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, Ricky Rubio and Thaddeus Young rely the most heavily on steals for fantasy value. They’re followed by Monta Ellis, Tony Allen, Mario Chalmers, Victor Oladipo and Tony Wroten. Kawhi Leonard isn’t far behind, but it’s interesting to note that league-leader Stephen Curry doesn’t appear until No. 45 on this list. Curry has the greatest overall impact in steals for fantasy owners, and it’s one reason he’s vying for No. 1 fantasy honors this season, but he does so much else that a game without any swipes won’t tank his value.
Bottom-10: Steals contribute almost nothing to Brook Lopez‘s overall value. Close behind him are Tyson Chandler, Jared Sullinger, Marcin Gortat, Dirk Nowitzki, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Jones, Derrick Rose, Roy Hibbert and J.J. Redick. Other guards toward the bottom of this category include Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, Joe Johnson and Kevin Martin.
Blocks
Top-10: The guys who most rely on blocks are all the usual suspects. Hassan Whiteside tops the list, followed by Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Derrick Favors, Nerlens Noel, Terrence Jones, Gorgui Dieng, Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler. The first non-centers to appear are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Josh Smith, Danny Green and Draymond Green.
Bottom-10 (who aren’t guards): Trevor Ariza is in the bottom-10 for reliance on blocks, joined in the bottom-50 by guys like Khris Middleton, DeMarre Carroll, Zach Randolph, Chandler Parsons, Thaddeus Young, Luol Deng, Markieff Morris, Greg Monroe and Dirk Nowitzki. The PFs I just listed are worth keeping in mind on draft day next season — a lack of blocks obviously doesn’t tank their value, but they may require extra planning to draft a balanced team.
I’ll let you all peruse the results for FG% and FT% as you see fit, and I hope to revisit this analysis while adding a few extra wrinkles in a future column. Next week I plan to look at each player’s consistency on a game-by-game basis, which should prove particularly useful for DFS owners trying to avoid unreliable players. If you have any questions or insights, send me a message on Twitter @Knaus_RW. I’ll see you all again next week, and good luck to all those who are in the midst of a fantasy playoff battle.
Today’s edition of the Numbers Game looks at how reliant players are on a particular category. For example, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is making 1.9 three-pointers this season while flirting with late-round value. We can estimate that 3-pointers have a 1.59 ‘Impact’ for KCP, so his fantasy value is tethered to perimeter shooting and a cold streak (he had missed 17 straight 3s before making one on Tuesday) will destroy his appeal. His next-highest Impacts are all negative: FG% (-1.25), rebounds (-0.67) and assists (-0.67). Without those 3-pointers, KCP would drop from being a top-160 player to barely cracking the top-220, just ahead of Chris Anderson, Lavoy Allen and Pablo Prigioni.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $150,000 fantasy basketball league for Wednesday’s NBA games. It’s just $2 to join and first place wins $10,000. Starts Wednesday at 7pm ET. Enter now!
This analysis is restricted to the top-150 players as gauged by season-long, per-game averages in 8-cat leagues (so you won’t find KCP listed). I’ve eliminated all players who are averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game and/or haven’t appeared in at least 15 games. I pulled the raw statistics from the inimitable BasketballMonster.com, as their formatting is cleaner and simpler than NBA.com and most other sites, after which I manipulated the numbers in a variety of ways — you can see the results here.
Before posting the results of the analysis, here is a quick summary of my methodology:
1) Compile league-wide stats and eliminate ineligible players
2) Determine league means and standard deviations by categories
3) Determine each player’s z-score for points (PTS), 3-pointers (3PT), rebounds (REB), assists (AST), steals (STL), blocks (BLK), weighted field goal percentage (FG%) and weighted free throw percentage (FT%)
4) Rank players by cumulative value, then eliminate anyone outside the top-150 and re-calculate means/st. dev/z-scores
5) Divide each player’s category values into their cumulative value to arrive at player-by-player estimations of the ‘Impact’ of each category
6) Turn it into a chart with appropriate formatting, then share it
Two more quick notes: The red and green formatting should be read horizontally for each player, not vertically for each category. You’ll also notice a block of 18 players who don’t have any formatting — the numbers you see are their actual z-scores for that category, not an ‘Impact’ number. This is because their cumulative values were all very close to zero, so when you divided into it the results were unreliable. If I were smarter I could figure out a solution, but for now I’ve just skirted the problem.
Player value ‘Impact’ by category:
| Name | 8-cat value | PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% |
| James Harden | 1.12 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| Stephen Curry | 1.08 | 0.19 | 0.27 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 0.24 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Anthony Davis | 0.98 | 0.23 | -0.12 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| Russell Westbrook | 0.84 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 0.29 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Durant | 0.76 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.05 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 0.67 | 0.30 | -0.18 | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Chris Paul | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.47 | 0.26 | -0.12 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| LeBron James | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.12 | -0.20 |
| Damian Lillard | 0.51 | 0.30 | 0.34 | -0.06 | 0.26 | 0.15 | -0.12 | -0.15 | 0.27 |
| Klay Thompson | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.55 | -0.20 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.22 |
| Kyrie Irving | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.28 | -0.21 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jimmy Butler | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.34 |
| John Wall | 0.42 | 0.13 | -0.07 | -0.11 | 0.75 | 0.42 | -0.03 | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| Jeff Teague | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.01 | -0.32 | 0.48 | 0.40 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 0.36 |
| Eric Bledsoe | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.34 | 0.39 | -0.02 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| Pau Gasol | 0.37 | 0.23 | -0.30 | 0.66 | -0.06 | -0.44 | 0.60 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 0.35 | 0.56 | -0.18 | 0.53 | -0.19 | -0.20 | 0.17 | -0.10 | 0.41 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 0.34 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.20 | -0.11 | 0.75 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.07 |
| Marc Gasol | 0.34 | 0.24 | -0.35 | 0.25 | 0.07 | -0.13 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Paul Millsap | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.27 | -0.03 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.08 | -0.11 |
| Gordon Hayward | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.26 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 0.30 | -0.16 | -0.09 | 0.26 |
| Kyle Lowry | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | -0.16 | 0.61 | 0.37 | -0.29 | -0.40 | 0.18 |
| Jrue Holiday | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.29 | 0.64 | 0.48 | -0.04 | -0.14 | 0.17 |
| Rudy Gay | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.08 | 0.45 |
| Draymond Green | 0.26 | -0.24 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.51 | 0.49 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| Brandon Knight | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.49 | -0.26 | 0.38 | 0.36 | -0.33 | -0.31 | 0.44 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 0.25 | 0.87 | 0.25 | 0.15 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.16 | -0.24 | 0.20 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 0.24 | 0.48 | -0.50 | 0.87 | -0.26 | -0.31 | 0.05 | 0.68 | -0.01 |
| Serge Ibaka | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.40 | -0.51 | -0.62 | 1.38 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Al Horford | 0.20 | 0.11 | -0.51 | 0.36 | 0.03 | -0.30 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.04 |
| Kevin Love | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.61 | 0.96 | -0.23 | -0.42 | -0.15 | -0.33 | 0.25 |
| Darren Collison | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.54 | 0.62 | 0.59 | -0.33 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Blake Griffin | 0.17 | 1.07 | -0.62 | 0.43 | 0.52 | -0.17 | -0.24 | 0.56 | -0.55 |
| Kemba Walker | 0.17 | 0.58 | 0.41 | -0.43 | 0.56 | 0.47 | -0.09 | -0.94 | 0.44 |
| Kobe Bryant | 0.16 | 1.08 | 0.40 | 0.01 | 0.68 | 0.42 | -0.46 | -1.66 | 0.53 |
| Chris Bosh | 0.16 | 0.95 | 0.33 | 0.34 | -0.31 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 0.03 |
| Victor Oladipo | 0.15 | 0.43 | 0.05 | -0.36 | 0.22 | 0.86 | -0.49 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| Monta Ellis | 0.15 | 0.69 | 0.13 | -0.82 | 0.33 | 1.38 | -0.35 | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| Mike Conley | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.41 | -0.63 | 0.66 | 0.41 | -0.54 | -0.25 | 0.67 |
| Danny Green | 0.14 | -0.44 | 1.22 | -0.32 | -0.47 | 0.47 | 0.58 | -0.34 | 0.29 |
| Ricky Rubio | 0.13 | -0.59 | -0.35 | 0.06 | 2.10 | 1.50 | -0.76 | -1.23 | 0.28 |
| Tim Duncan | 0.13 | -0.06 | -0.94 | 1.15 | -0.13 | -0.35 | 1.47 | 0.35 | -0.49 |
| Kyle Korver | 0.11 | -0.39 | 2.17 | -0.49 | -0.24 | -0.69 | -0.20 | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| Ty Lawson | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.03 | -0.86 | 2.76 | 0.50 | -0.87 | -0.38 | -0.49 |
| Dwyane Wade | 0.10 | 1.54 | -0.71 | -0.73 | 0.96 | 0.32 | -0.52 | 0.26 | -0.11 |
| Trevor Ariza | 0.10 | -0.46 | 1.60 | -0.10 | -0.39 | 2.06 | -0.83 | -1.36 | 0.48 |
| Kevin Martin | 0.08 | 1.55 | 1.67 | -0.81 | -0.65 | -0.56 | -1.34 | -0.59 | 1.73 |
| Wesley Matthews | 0.08 | 0.41 | 2.88 | -0.93 | -0.52 | 0.69 | -1.02 | -0.38 | -0.14 |
| Tyson Chandler | 0.07 | -1.39 | -1.89 | 3.44 | -1.47 | -1.56 | 1.38 | 2.71 | -0.22 |
| Derrick Favors | 0.06 | 0.67 | -1.93 | 1.58 | -1.20 | -0.70 | 2.41 | 2.18 | -2.01 |
| Tyreke Evans* | 0.05 | 0.52 | -0.17 | -0.15 | 1.50 | 0.41 | -0.36 | -0.59 | -0.68 |
| Tobias Harris* | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.28 | -0.60 | -0.02 | -0.16 | -0.05 | 0.26 |
| Brandon Jennings* | 0.03 | 0.21 | 1.04 | -1.19 | 1.58 | 0.07 | -0.93 | -1.22 | 0.70 |
| Isaiah Thomas* | 0.02 | 0.42 | 1.09 | -1.23 | 0.37 | -0.27 | -0.94 | -0.71 | 1.51 |
| Zach Randolph* | 0.02 | 0.44 | -1.13 | 2.20 | -0.63 | -0.14 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -0.31 |
| Greg Monroe* | 0.02 | 0.32 | -1.24 | 1.86 | -0.55 | -0.02 | -0.36 | 0.62 | -0.47 |
| Goran Dragic* | 0.01 | 0.39 | 0.26 | -0.80 | 0.45 | -0.02 | -0.81 | 0.73 | -0.07 |
| Al Jefferson* | 0.00 | 0.65 | -1.20 | 1.22 | -0.66 | -0.71 | 1.08 | 0.47 | -0.83 |
| Robert Covington* | 0.00 | -0.32 | 1.60 | -0.36 | -0.84 | 0.99 | -0.41 | -1.11 | 0.46 |
| Khris Middleton* | -0.01 | -0.44 | 0.40 | -0.42 | -0.55 | 1.17 | -0.81 | 0.16 | 0.43 |
| Dirk Nowitzki* | -0.01 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.12 | -0.63 | -1.22 | -0.35 | -0.17 | 1.22 |
| Gorgui Dieng* | -0.01 | -1.15 | -1.22 | 1.10 | -0.56 | -0.29 | 1.53 | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| DeAndre Jordan* | -0.01 | -0.73 | -1.24 | 3.40 | -1.19 | -0.06 | 2.52 | 2.38 | -5.22 |
| Nerlens Noel* | -0.02 | -1.25 | -1.24 | 0.77 | -0.73 | 1.70 | 2.02 | -0.23 | -1.24 |
| Hassan Whiteside* | -0.03 | -0.79 | -1.24 | 1.59 | -1.43 | -1.22 | 2.75 | 1.78 | -1.75 |
| Chandler Parsons* | -0.04 | 0.21 | 1.22 | -0.30 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.59 | -0.21 | -0.32 |
| Nicolas Batum* | -0.04 | -1.11 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.87 | 0.34 |
| Mo Williams* | -0.05 | -0.11 | 0.88 | -1.25 | 1.65 | -0.64 | -0.77 | -0.92 | 0.70 |
| Jared Sullinger | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.06 | 1.71 | -0.67 | -1.24 | 0.07 | -0.55 | -0.24 |
| Brook Lopez | -0.06 | 0.39 | -2.05 | 0.66 | -2.04 | -1.97 | 2.68 | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | -0.06 | 0.11 | -0.65 | 0.01 | 3.03 | 1.74 | -0.72 | -2.56 | -1.96 |
| Bradley Beal | -0.07 | 0.13 | 1.17 | -0.95 | -0.13 | 0.62 | -1.01 | -1.17 | 0.33 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | -0.08 | -0.65 | -1.49 | 0.50 | -0.46 | 0.06 | 0.90 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
| Eric Gordon | -0.08 | -0.33 | 2.03 | -1.36 | 0.42 | -0.40 | -0.87 | -0.96 | 0.46 |
| Markieff Morris | -0.08 | 0.17 | -0.43 | 0.10 | -0.62 | 0.56 | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.28 |
| Derrick Rose | -0.08 | 1.06 | 0.82 | -1.15 | 1.00 | -1.02 | -0.62 | -1.69 | 0.61 |
| Jamal Crawford | -0.09 | 0.48 | 1.26 | -1.57 | -0.37 | -0.33 | -0.83 | -1.40 | 1.76 |
| Rudy Gobert | -0.10 | -1.63 | -1.26 | 1.01 | -0.97 | -0.70 | 2.71 | 1.00 | -1.15 |
| Marcin Gortat | -0.10 | -0.57 | -1.25 | 1.18 | -1.02 | -1.23 | 1.05 | 1.23 | -0.39 |
| DeMarre Carroll | -0.10 | -0.55 | 0.90 | -0.19 | -0.79 | 0.63 | -0.73 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| David West | -0.10 | -0.45 | -1.12 | 0.59 | 0.02 | -0.48 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.02 |
| Terrence Jones | -0.11 | -0.42 | -0.77 | 0.55 | -0.97 | -1.09 | 2.01 | 0.81 | -1.11 |
| Thaddeus Young | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.59 | -0.24 | -0.29 | 1.40 | -0.51 | -0.08 | -0.58 |
| Joe Johnson | -0.11 | 0.10 | 0.63 | -0.28 | 0.11 | -0.64 | -0.63 | -0.51 | 0.21 |
| George Hill | -0.11 | -0.13 | 0.48 | -0.65 | 0.52 | -0.26 | -0.53 | -0.44 | 0.01 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | -0.12 | -0.48 | -1.06 | 0.96 | -1.12 | -1.22 | 0.67 | 0.98 | 0.27 |
| Lou Williams | -0.12 | 0.13 | 0.86 | -1.25 | -0.51 | 0.23 | -0.75 | -0.89 | 1.18 |
| DeMar DeRozan | -0.12 | 0.83 | -0.72 | -0.47 | -0.02 | 0.59 | -0.68 | -1.20 | 0.68 |
| Luol Deng | -0.12 | 0.01 | 0.08 | -0.20 | -0.49 | -0.15 | -0.48 | 0.29 | -0.06 |
| Deron Williams | -0.12 | -0.25 | 0.22 | -0.79 | 1.09 | -0.08 | -0.52 | -1.12 | 0.45 |
| Andrew Bogut | -0.15 | -1.24 | -0.83 | 0.62 | -0.19 | -0.62 | 1.13 | 0.45 | -0.32 |
| J.R. Smith | -0.16 | -0.38 | 0.80 | -0.61 | -0.09 | 0.34 | -0.45 | -0.56 | -0.05 |
| Jarrett Jack | -0.16 | -0.31 | -0.43 | -0.60 | 0.50 | 0.01 | -0.48 | -0.18 | 0.49 |
| Patrick Beverley | -0.16 | -0.59 | 0.86 | -0.29 | 0.04 | 0.08 | -0.28 | -0.73 | -0.09 |
| P.J. Tucker | -0.16 | -0.78 | 0.08 | 0.15 | -0.51 | 0.50 | -0.36 | -0.09 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Chandler | -0.16 | -0.08 | 0.63 | 0.08 | -0.47 | -0.53 | -0.26 | -0.45 | 0.09 |
| Tony Wroten | -0.17 | 0.32 | 0.16 | -0.63 | 0.54 | 0.76 | -0.38 | -0.76 | -1.01 |
| J.J. Redick | -0.17 | 0.09 | 1.01 | -0.79 | -0.44 | -0.78 | -0.54 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Mario Chalmers | -0.17 | -0.48 | -0.08 | -0.66 | 0.25 | 0.86 | -0.50 | -0.44 | 0.04 |
| Joakim Noah | -0.18 | -0.88 | -0.71 | 0.95 | 0.30 | -0.50 | 0.56 | -0.15 | -0.58 |
| Ryan Anderson | -0.18 | 0.02 | 0.78 | -0.12 | -0.58 | -0.56 | -0.33 | -0.58 | 0.36 |
| Reggie Jackson | -0.18 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.32 | 0.34 | -0.25 | -0.48 | -0.44 | 0.39 |
| Jeremy Lin | -0.19 | -0.42 | -0.08 | -0.61 | 0.36 | 0.14 | -0.22 | -0.21 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Green | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.13 | -0.29 | -0.34 | -0.41 | -0.20 | -0.41 | 0.41 |
| Rajon Rondo | -0.21 | -0.61 | -0.34 | 0.02 | 1.08 | 0.40 | -0.44 | -0.37 | -0.73 |
| Andre Drummond | -0.21 | -0.15 | -0.58 | 1.33 | -0.56 | -0.13 | 0.88 | 0.31 | -2.09 |
| Josh Smith | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.17 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.59 | -0.41 | -1.11 |
| Robin Lopez | -0.22 | -0.48 | -0.56 | 0.24 | -0.45 | -0.73 | 0.68 | 0.29 | 0.02 |
| Dwight Howard | -0.22 | 0.19 | -0.54 | 0.91 | -0.38 | -0.40 | 0.52 | 0.80 | -2.11 |
| Paul Pierce | -0.23 | -0.18 | 0.33 | -0.24 | -0.25 | -0.42 | -0.23 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| Corey Brewer | -0.23 | -0.29 | -0.07 | -0.37 | -0.17 | 0.53 | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| Manu Ginobili | -0.23 | -0.27 | 0.21 | -0.43 | 0.25 | -0.08 | -0.27 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| Rodney Stuckey | -0.23 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.33 | 0.00 | -0.20 | -0.37 | -0.06 | 0.27 |
| Andrew Wiggins | -0.24 | 0.13 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.26 | 0.07 | -0.03 | -0.24 | -0.22 |
| Matt Barnes | -0.24 | -0.45 | 0.30 | -0.28 | -0.34 | -0.17 | -0.02 | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| Tony Allen | -0.24 | -0.57 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.35 | 0.90 | -0.12 | 0.12 | -0.27 |
| Timofey Mozgov | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.50 | 0.31 | -0.50 | -0.59 | 0.48 | 0.35 | -0.09 |
| Roy Hibbert | -0.25 | -0.35 | -0.50 | 0.23 | -0.40 | -0.78 | 0.72 | -0.11 | 0.20 |
| Kelly Olynyk | -0.25 | -0.35 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.28 | -0.10 | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.21 |
| Tony Parker | -0.25 | 0.02 | -0.16 | -0.57 | 0.31 | -0.36 | -0.41 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Amar’e Stoudemire | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.47 | 0.08 | -0.41 | -0.42 | 0.08 | 0.43 | -0.07 |
| Kenneth Faried | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.47 | 0.45 | -0.35 | -0.25 | 0.05 | 0.16 | -0.35 |
| Avery Bradley | -0.26 | -0.05 | 0.26 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -0.02 | -0.30 | -0.25 | 0.03 |
| Enes Kanter | -0.26 | -0.05 | -0.37 | 0.35 | -0.43 | -0.52 | -0.21 | 0.23 | -0.01 |
| C.J. Watson | -0.27 | -0.39 | 0.08 | -0.39 | 0.09 | -0.14 | -0.29 | -0.14 | 0.19 |
| Patrick Patterson | -0.27 | -0.51 | 0.15 | -0.03 | -0.25 | -0.28 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.02 |
| Jabari Parker | -0.27 | -0.18 | -0.39 | -0.02 | -0.26 | 0.17 | -0.28 | 0.15 | -0.19 |
| Anderson Varejao | -0.27 | -0.38 | -0.45 | 0.12 | -0.31 | -0.26 | -0.03 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| James Johnson | -0.27 | -0.50 | -0.37 | -0.24 | -0.31 | -0.17 | 0.29 | 0.43 | -0.11 |
| Jordan Hill | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.44 | 0.31 | -0.30 | -0.47 | 0.10 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Courtney Lee | -0.28 | -0.32 | 0.12 | -0.45 | -0.18 | -0.04 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alec Burks | -0.28 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.19 | -0.03 | -0.34 | -0.28 | -0.35 | 0.25 |
| O.J. Mayo | -0.30 | -0.20 | 0.17 | -0.38 | -0.06 | -0.23 | -0.21 | -0.23 | 0.14 |
| Ben McLemore | -0.30 | -0.19 | 0.30 | -0.35 | -0.26 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| Nikola Pekovic | -0.30 | -0.12 | -0.41 | 0.27 | -0.36 | -0.32 | -0.14 | -0.19 | 0.28 |
| Donatas Motiejunas | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.15 | 0.04 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.11 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| Taj Gibson | -0.30 | -0.29 | -0.41 | 0.12 | -0.30 | -0.38 | 0.33 | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| Langston Galloway | -0.31 | -0.26 | 0.09 | -0.14 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.19 | -0.38 | -0.02 |
| Wesley Johnson | -0.31 | -0.34 | 0.10 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.20 | -0.04 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| Arron Afflalo | -0.32 | -0.04 | 0.20 | -0.29 | -0.20 | -0.34 | -0.30 | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| Jose Calderon | -0.32 | -0.38 | 0.15 | -0.33 | 0.22 | -0.22 | -0.34 | -0.19 | 0.09 |
| Amir Johnson | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.30 | 0.03 | -0.26 | -0.32 | 0.08 | 0.37 | -0.23 |
| Evan Turner | -0.32 | -0.40 | -0.22 | -0.08 | 0.24 | -0.09 | -0.23 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| Devin Harris | -0.33 | -0.38 | 0.11 | -0.44 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.23 | -0.19 | 0.10 |
| Ed Davis | -0.33 | -0.41 | -0.38 | 0.21 | -0.28 | -0.31 | 0.31 | 0.39 | -0.52 |
| Harrison Barnes | -0.33 | -0.29 | 0.05 | 0.01 | -0.26 | -0.25 | -0.24 | 0.07 | -0.10 |
| D.J. Augustin | -0.33 | -0.26 | 0.01 | -0.41 | 0.21 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.21 | 0.25 |
| Jodie Meeks | -0.33 | -0.20 | 0.08 | -0.45 | -0.24 | -0.01 | -0.29 | -0.26 | 0.37 |
| Alex Len | -0.34 | -0.52 | -0.36 | 0.10 | -0.38 | -0.35 | 0.44 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
| John Henson | -0.36 | -0.44 | -0.34 | -0.12 | -0.30 | -0.40 | 0.55 | 0.24 | -0.19 |
A few clear trends emerge. The top-50 players tend to have high Impact ratings for points and weighted FT percentages, which is no surprise since they’re almost invariably go-to scorers for their respective teams (the heavy Impact of FT% in the early rounds also confirms some of my previous analyses). This same top-40 group doesn’t rely on rebounds or blocks for much of their value, which is unsurprising when you consider that 10 of the top 15 players this season (per-game) are pure guards — the exceptions are Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler.
The top-50 players are also generally weak in FG%. It’s not until players 100-150 that we see consistently positive field goal numbers — even the middle-50 players are nearly as weak as the top-50, making FG% a uniquely late-round category. That’s due largely to the plethora of PF/Cs who play limited minutes but still eke into late-round value on the strength of their FG%, boards and blocks. The hardest categories to find outside of the top-100 are points, assists and to a lesser extent steals.
Points
Keep in mind that we’re not talking about which players contribute the most points among the top-150 players, only which players rely most heavily on the Impact of scoring for their overall fantasy value. Kevin Martin‘s value relies on points more than any other player, followed closely by Dwyane Wade. They are followed by Kobe Bryant, Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, DeMar DeRozan and Monta Ellis.
The guys who rely the least on scoring are Rudy Gobert, Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Joakim Noah, P.J. Tucker, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rajon Rondo, Patrick Beverley and Ricky Rubio. That’s a fairly predictable group of low-scoring centers and guards, with a few across-the-board wingmen thrown in for good measure. Gobert’s fantasy value hinges the least on scoring, making him somewhat immune to a low usage rate and poor offensive outings.
3-pointers
The results here are exactly what you’d expect. Wesley Matthews was the most reliant on 3s prior to his awful Achilles injury. Next in line are Kyle Korver, Eric Gordon, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Jamal Crawford, Danny Green and Bradley Beal. It’s worth noting that Klay Thompson comes in 19th for reliance on perimeter shooting, a testament to his growth as an all-around weapon this season.
The bottom guys in this category aren’t worth mentioning since it’s an obvious group of centers, but a few non-PF/Cs do make the bottom 50. In ascending order, they are Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan, Dwyane Wade, Michael Carter-Williams, Tony Allen, Jarrett Jack, James Johnson, Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo.
Rebounds
Now that we’ve established the meaning of these ‘Impact’ numbers, I’ll streamline the process by listing some key players at the top or bottom of their respective categories.
Top-10: Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan, Zach Randolph, Greg Monroe, Jared Sullinger, Hassan Whiteside, Derrick Favors, Andre Drummond, Marcin Gortat and Al Jefferson.
Bottom-5 (who aren’t guards): Chandler Parsons, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Paul Pierce and Thaddeus Young.
Assists
Top-5 (who aren’t guards): We know that Michael Carter-Williams, Ty Lawson and Ricky Rubio rely heavily on assists for fantasy value. The first 10 non-guards we come across, however, are Nicolas Batum, Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Joakim Noah, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Draymond Green, Josh Smith, Kevin Durant and Al Horford.
Bottom-5 (who are guards): Some guards don’t need assists to help owners in standard fantasy leagues, including Robert Covington, Kevin Martin, Wes Matthews, Lou Williams and Danny Green. The first pure guards to make the list are Langston Galloway, Devin Harris and C.J. Watson, though they all qualify as combo guards.
Steals
Top-10: Trevor Ariza, Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, Ricky Rubio and Thaddeus Young rely the most heavily on steals for fantasy value. They’re followed by Monta Ellis, Tony Allen, Mario Chalmers, Victor Oladipo and Tony Wroten. Kawhi Leonard isn’t far behind, but it’s interesting to note that league-leader Stephen Curry doesn’t appear until No. 45 on this list. Curry has the greatest overall impact in steals for fantasy owners, and it’s one reason he’s vying for No. 1 fantasy honors this season, but he does so much else that a game without any swipes won’t tank his value.
Bottom-10: Steals contribute almost nothing to Brook Lopez‘s overall value. Close behind him are Tyson Chandler, Jared Sullinger, Marcin Gortat, Dirk Nowitzki, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Jones, Derrick Rose, Roy Hibbert and J.J. Redick. Other guards toward the bottom of this category include Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, Joe Johnson and Kevin Martin.
Blocks
Top-10: The guys who most rely on blocks are all the usual suspects. Hassan Whiteside tops the list, followed by Rudy Gobert, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Derrick Favors, Nerlens Noel, Terrence Jones, Gorgui Dieng, Tim Duncan and Tyson Chandler. The first non-centers to appear are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Josh Smith, Danny Green and Draymond Green.
Bottom-10 (who aren’t guards): Trevor Ariza is in the bottom-10 for reliance on blocks, joined in the bottom-50 by guys like Khris Middleton, DeMarre Carroll, Zach Randolph, Chandler Parsons, Thaddeus Young, Luol Deng, Markieff Morris, Greg Monroe and Dirk Nowitzki. The PFs I just listed are worth keeping in mind on draft day next season — a lack of blocks obviously doesn’t tank their value, but they may require extra planning to draft a balanced team.
I’ll let you all peruse the results for FG% and FT% as you see fit, and I hope to revisit this analysis while adding a few extra wrinkles in a future column. Next week I plan to look at each player’s consistency on a game-by-game basis, which should prove particularly useful for DFS owners trying to avoid unreliable players. If you have any questions or insights, send me a message on Twitter @Knaus_RW. I’ll see you all again next week, and good luck to all those who are in the midst of a fantasy playoff battle.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
