As mentioned in Tuesday’s uneventful Dose the potential for a massive Big Wednesday loomed large and boy did that turn out to be correct.  Kyrie Irving and LaMarcus Aldridge both advanced their reputations in massive nights, Anthony Davis gave everybody a good scare and Tom Thibodeau is suddenly on the outs in Chicago.

The Sixers won a game, the Hawks continue to be unbeatable, Dwight Howard is hurt, Josh Smith went off, Kevin Martin returned, the Thunder are heading toward dark places, the Knicks youth movement is pretty cool and Joe Ingles is a thing.

That’s just the stuff off the top of my head and we haven’t even gotten to the All Star announcements later tonight.

Crack open a cold one and get ready because this Bruski Breakdown is busting open at the seams. 

For all of your NBA news and real-time analysis, click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $400,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Wednesday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $40,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Wednesday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

THUMBS UP

 

I am as torn up about LaMarcus Aldridge’s decision to play through his thumb injury as his thumb is torn up, which is a lot for somebody with no rooting interest in the Blazers’ success.  His decision to play is ballsy and inspiring, so don’t get confused about my fading his fantasy value in preseason rankings when compared to his real-life value on the court. 

But the decision could very well backfire as I cover in my podcast, because Portland has a 6.5 game lead over eighth place Phoenix and without him they’re a very good basketball team.  Giving him the two months for surgery and recovery, then a month to get himself right, he could be primed for the playoffs with a little less wear and tear on those legs. 

But that ship has sailed and he is back on the floor and better than ever, coming off a 38-point, 11-rebound night including two threes, one steal, two blocks and a 10-of-10 mark from the line.  He’s the No. 8 and 13 play on a per-game basis in 9- and 8-cat leagues respectively this season, with games played only hurting him a slight amount so far.  One has to wonder if the Blazers simply want to bridge the gap between now and the time they know they can count on Nicolas Batum (seven points, four rebounds, seven assists, two steals, one block, one three, 39 minutes) as he recovers from a shooting wrist injury that has plagued his season. 

Batum reportedly felt no pain heading into last night’s game and the All Star break couldn’t come at a better time for both players.  I am still on board with judicious buy low plays on Batum knowing he’ll get a real shot at healing his wrist up in the next 2-3 weeks.  The fear for Aldridge’s owners, other than the worst case scenario of getting hurt worse in the next month or so only to require surgery or major time off, is that he gets sporadic rest when the Blazers are more comfortable with their playoff seeding.  I think it’s fair to say Aldridge is a sell-high player, but the fact he’s rattling off huge games already is as good of a sign as one could expect. 

 

LET’S GO BOWLING

 

If Klay Thompson hadn’t turned on cheat mode in that historic third quarter the other night, the NBA world would have stopped moving during Kyrie Irving’s career-night.  Instead, the detractors pointed out LeBron’s absence and focused on Irving’s improving but still deficient defense.  I’ve been as hard as anybody on Irving but that was a statement game if I’ve seen one this year, pushing the Cavs to an eight-game winning streak since David Blatt took the team bowling. 

Irving hit 17-of-36 shots, 11 3-pointers and 10-of-10 free throws to go with four rebounds, five assists, two steals and the game-deciding triple over Nicolas Batum in the final moments.  The final result was an NBA season-best 55 points and probably the second-best fantasy line of the season behind Klay’s big night.  LeBron is already doubtful for Friday’s game against the Kings due to his shooting wrist injury and Blatt said the injury isn’t serious so it’s just something to watch for out of the corner of your eye. 

In the meantime, Kevin Love added a banged knee to his list of ailments and his struggles continue.  Irving has a real shot to return first round fantasy value over the next week or so and he sealed an All Star selection if he didn’t already have it.  More importantly, the criticism surrounding the team is all-but gone and they’ve probably turned the corner. 

I’m not optimistic that Love will turn it around this year without a major change in team dynamic, so I’m taking off the buy low recommendation that has been waning in recent weeks.  When you add up the nagging injuries and the lack of evidence this offense can support three fantasy superstars, I can’t see the margin for owners to capture in a deal. 

Elsewhere in the rotation, things are good for Timofey Mozgov (12 points, 10 boards, one block, 36 minutes) as he’s proving his fantasy game is relatively static as a solid late-round value.  J.R. Smith (11 points, four assists, one three) could soon see competition for minutes from Iman Shumpert (28 minutes, four points, six rebounds), but until the Big Three are at full speed and Smith slows down he should remain on rosters.

 

THE MEEKS SHALL INHERIT SOMETHING I THINK

 

The Pistons were just catching their stride following the Josh Smith trade but the Brandon Jennings injury, for all it has done to free up guys like D.J. Augustin and Jodie Meeks, has sent them spiraling into a four-game losing streak after they lost to the Sixers last night.  Augustin came into the game on a heater, but got shut out last night on seven shot attempts and finished with two points, one rebound, four assists and two steals.  Don’t worry, obviously.  He has the starting job all to himself as long as the Pistons are playing for a playoffs spot. 

The guy that’s most interesting here is Jodie Meeks, who has failed to cash in on any of my relative hype and was even the source of commentary by Stan Van Gundy before the game.  The coach said he needed to look at using him differently and last night certainly fit the bill, as Meeks got 16 attempts from the field (making just four) en route to a 19-point, three-assist night including two steals, one 3-pointer and 10-of-11 makes from the foul line. 

As I said in the Dose, he has hit just 33.6 percent of his shots from the field over his last eight games and when you combine the inevitable bounce-back shooting the ball with the inevitable spike in usage with Jennings gone this is a big buy low/pickup moment. 

If you’re deep league hunting the 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting with one steal, two blocks and a 3-pointer out of Jonas Jerebko bears watching.  He hasn’t found his footing this year but he fits what the Pistons are doing and their depth is dwindling.  He isn’t quite worth a pickup just yet in 14-16 team leagues but that moment could come quickly. 

 

I WANNA TALK TO SAMPSON!

 

I was tempted to use the word ‘awful’ or ‘hapless’ when describing the Pistons’ loss to the Sixers but I just can’t do it anymore.  These guys play hard on most nights and being undermanned has created a bit of underdog fight in the Brett Brown squad.  They’re also crazy versatile with their 6’6” brigade of youngsters and they’re doing well picking up unknown quantities such as Robert Covington and Jerami Grant. 

Covington is going to haunt me all year after I picked him up in big money leagues before he had a pulse, then dropped him out of impatience, and then proceeded to let others outbid me on the rebound.  He scored 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting with four threes, five boards, three assists and one steal in just 25 minutes.  He’s a top-70 value in just 27 mpg on a per-game basis this season all while shooting just 40 percent, so there’s room for improvement as I repeatedly kick myself. 

Grant is percolating beneath the surface of 12-team leagues and in competitive leagues I’ve seen him snapped up.  He scored just four points on 2-of-6 shooting in 21 minutes last night, but chipped in with four rebounds, two assists, one steal and two blocks.  For a guy that’s hitting just under a three per game he can’t hit free throws, making just 62.5 percent of them on 2.4 attempts per game. 

It’s unclear if he can overcome the efficiency issues to cash in on the Philly Bump, but the money counting stats are there and that spells upside.  He’s a sneaky stash in 12-team formats as long as he continues to show moderate improvement. 

Michael Carter-Williams hit 5-of-10 shots (including a three) and just missed out on a triple-double with 14 points, nine rebounds, 10 assists and two blocks.  Yes, he had five turnovers and yes his season-long value in 9-cat leagues is in the tank for non-punters, but he’s starting to heat up and he might be ready to make some headway.  He didn’t have much of a summer recovering from shoulder surgery and this past month has been his training camp.  Consider waiting until his next dud and making a buy-low offer.

JaKarr Sampson started at shooting guard and got MCW’s seal of approval, for whatever that’s worth, after the game.  He hit 5-of-6 shots (including two threes) for 13 points, eight rebounds and two steals in his 24 minutes, as applies for the next scholarship from the Sam Hinkie Foundation for a Better Draft Pick.  Just watch him for now. 

 

THIS STUFF’S MADE IN NEW YORK CITY (NEW YORK CITY?!?)

 

There really is nothing to say about the Kings that hasn’t been said, but if you want to hear the word ‘pace’ get said repeatedly then this is your team.  They got run by the Raptors last night and the postgame quotes are as lost and depressing as Kings Twitter is these days. 

They’re about two weeks into throwing in the towel in on a promising season — in spectacular fashion –all while trumpeting achievements such as the shooing away of Isaiah Thomas and Mike Malone along the way.  The locker room is a toxic mess and the team has stopped giving full effort on the floor.  Having covered the team closely and knowing first-hand how much goodwill this new ownership had with fans, to see the reaction on Twitter and otherwise is stunning to say the least. 

They’re going to ride with Ty Corbin unless things get truly ridiculous, and they’re already there with the front office not budging.  The Kings’ big three should be relatively fine throughout the ordeal, but they’re not going to grind through any risky situations due to injury or anything like that.  There’s a small chance that DeMarcus Cousins (13 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, two blocks, nine turnovers) or Rudy Gay (22 points, 8-of-17 FGs, two threes, three boards, three assists) gets extremely inefficient due to the overall lack of talent, but owners should keep them projected along current trajectories. 

Darren Collison (12 points, two threes, three boards, two assists, one steal) has been playing a bit over his head and the loss of either of his Team USA teammates would hurt him pretty badly from an efficiency standpoint.  He’s great in his current role but he’s not beating guys off the dribble, but rather using pick-and-roll and straight line drives when the defense attends to Cousins and Gay to get into the lane. 

The team is also desperate to make a big trade, but they’re going to need something to fall in their laps because they have very few good, tradeable assets.  A smaller trade is more likely. 

 

I’LL TAKE REVENGE GAMES FOR $500, ALEX

 

The Raptors bench is basically the Kings’ old second unit and they love to face their old team, as evidenced by Greivis Vasquez’s 18 points, four rebounds, six assists, one steal and four treys.  James Johnson (seven minutes) isn’t in the doghouse according to reliable reports, but his minutes are in the tank and anybody not named Lou Williams (27 points, four treys, 9-of-9 FTs) in the wing corps is droppable now that DeMar DeRozan is back. 

DeRozan hit 5-of-13 shots from the field for 12 points, five rebounds, six assists, one steal and one three, and as I mentioned in the Dose he is a very good buy low value since he has been a major bust for owners.  Barely treading water in 12-team leagues when on the floor, he has a mid-round upside by simply not regressing compared to last season. 

As mentioned in Tuesday’s uneventful Dose the potential for a massive Big Wednesday loomed large and boy did that turn out to be correct.  Kyrie Irving and LaMarcus Aldridge both advanced their reputations in massive nights, Anthony Davis gave everybody a good scare and Tom Thibodeau is suddenly on the outs in Chicago.

The Sixers won a game, the Hawks continue to be unbeatable, Dwight Howard is hurt, Josh Smith went off, Kevin Martin returned, the Thunder are heading toward dark places, the Knicks youth movement is pretty cool and Joe Ingles is a thing.

That’s just the stuff off the top of my head and we haven’t even gotten to the All Star announcements later tonight.

Crack open a cold one and get ready because this Bruski Breakdown is busting open at the seams. 

For all of your NBA news and real-time analysis, click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $400,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Wednesday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $40,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Wednesday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

THUMBS UP

 

I am as torn up about LaMarcus Aldridge’s decision to play through his thumb injury as his thumb is torn up, which is a lot for somebody with no rooting interest in the Blazers’ success.  His decision to play is ballsy and inspiring, so don’t get confused about my fading his fantasy value in preseason rankings when compared to his real-life value on the court. 

But the decision could very well backfire as I cover in my podcast, because Portland has a 6.5 game lead over eighth place Phoenix and without him they’re a very good basketball team.  Giving him the two months for surgery and recovery, then a month to get himself right, he could be primed for the playoffs with a little less wear and tear on those legs. 

But that ship has sailed and he is back on the floor and better than ever, coming off a 38-point, 11-rebound night including two threes, one steal, two blocks and a 10-of-10 mark from the line.  He’s the No. 8 and 13 play on a per-game basis in 9- and 8-cat leagues respectively this season, with games played only hurting him a slight amount so far.  One has to wonder if the Blazers simply want to bridge the gap between now and the time they know they can count on Nicolas Batum (seven points, four rebounds, seven assists, two steals, one block, one three, 39 minutes) as he recovers from a shooting wrist injury that has plagued his season. 

Batum reportedly felt no pain heading into last night’s game and the All Star break couldn’t come at a better time for both players.  I am still on board with judicious buy low plays on Batum knowing he’ll get a real shot at healing his wrist up in the next 2-3 weeks.  The fear for Aldridge’s owners, other than the worst case scenario of getting hurt worse in the next month or so only to require surgery or major time off, is that he gets sporadic rest when the Blazers are more comfortable with their playoff seeding.  I think it’s fair to say Aldridge is a sell-high player, but the fact he’s rattling off huge games already is as good of a sign as one could expect. 

 

LET’S GO BOWLING

 

If Klay Thompson hadn’t turned on cheat mode in that historic third quarter the other night, the NBA world would have stopped moving during Kyrie Irving’s career-night.  Instead, the detractors pointed out LeBron’s absence and focused on Irving’s improving but still deficient defense.  I’ve been as hard as anybody on Irving but that was a statement game if I’ve seen one this year, pushing the Cavs to an eight-game winning streak since David Blatt took the team bowling. 

Irving hit 17-of-36 shots, 11 3-pointers and 10-of-10 free throws to go with four rebounds, five assists, two steals and the game-deciding triple over Nicolas Batum in the final moments.  The final result was an NBA season-best 55 points and probably the second-best fantasy line of the season behind Klay’s big night.  LeBron is already doubtful for Friday’s game against the Kings due to his shooting wrist injury and Blatt said the injury isn’t serious so it’s just something to watch for out of the corner of your eye. 

In the meantime, Kevin Love added a banged knee to his list of ailments and his struggles continue.  Irving has a real shot to return first round fantasy value over the next week or so and he sealed an All Star selection if he didn’t already have it.  More importantly, the criticism surrounding the team is all-but gone and they’ve probably turned the corner. 

I’m not optimistic that Love will turn it around this year without a major change in team dynamic, so I’m taking off the buy low recommendation that has been waning in recent weeks.  When you add up the nagging injuries and the lack of evidence this offense can support three fantasy superstars, I can’t see the margin for owners to capture in a deal. 

Elsewhere in the rotation, things are good for Timofey Mozgov (12 points, 10 boards, one block, 36 minutes) as he’s proving his fantasy game is relatively static as a solid late-round value.  J.R. Smith (11 points, four assists, one three) could soon see competition for minutes from Iman Shumpert (28 minutes, four points, six rebounds), but until the Big Three are at full speed and Smith slows down he should remain on rosters.

 

THE MEEKS SHALL INHERIT SOMETHING I THINK

 

The Pistons were just catching their stride following the Josh Smith trade but the Brandon Jennings injury, for all it has done to free up guys like D.J. Augustin and Jodie Meeks, has sent them spiraling into a four-game losing streak after they lost to the Sixers last night.  Augustin came into the game on a heater, but got shut out last night on seven shot attempts and finished with two points, one rebound, four assists and two steals.  Don’t worry, obviously.  He has the starting job all to himself as long as the Pistons are playing for a playoffs spot. 

The guy that’s most interesting here is Jodie Meeks, who has failed to cash in on any of my relative hype and was even the source of commentary by Stan Van Gundy before the game.  The coach said he needed to look at using him differently and last night certainly fit the bill, as Meeks got 16 attempts from the field (making just four) en route to a 19-point, three-assist night including two steals, one 3-pointer and 10-of-11 makes from the foul line. 

As I said in the Dose, he has hit just 33.6 percent of his shots from the field over his last eight games and when you combine the inevitable bounce-back shooting the ball with the inevitable spike in usage with Jennings gone this is a big buy low/pickup moment. 

If you’re deep league hunting the 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting with one steal, two blocks and a 3-pointer out of Jonas Jerebko bears watching.  He hasn’t found his footing this year but he fits what the Pistons are doing and their depth is dwindling.  He isn’t quite worth a pickup just yet in 14-16 team leagues but that moment could come quickly. 

 

I WANNA TALK TO SAMPSON!

 

I was tempted to use the word ‘awful’ or ‘hapless’ when describing the Pistons’ loss to the Sixers but I just can’t do it anymore.  These guys play hard on most nights and being undermanned has created a bit of underdog fight in the Brett Brown squad.  They’re also crazy versatile with their 6’6” brigade of youngsters and they’re doing well picking up unknown quantities such as Robert Covington and Jerami Grant. 

Covington is going to haunt me all year after I picked him up in big money leagues before he had a pulse, then dropped him out of impatience, and then proceeded to let others outbid me on the rebound.  He scored 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting with four threes, five boards, three assists and one steal in just 25 minutes.  He’s a top-70 value in just 27 mpg on a per-game basis this season all while shooting just 40 percent, so there’s room for improvement as I repeatedly kick myself. 

Grant is percolating beneath the surface of 12-team leagues and in competitive leagues I’ve seen him snapped up.  He scored just four points on 2-of-6 shooting in 21 minutes last night, but chipped in with four rebounds, two assists, one steal and two blocks.  For a guy that’s hitting just under a three per game he can’t hit free throws, making just 62.5 percent of them on 2.4 attempts per game. 

It’s unclear if he can overcome the efficiency issues to cash in on the Philly Bump, but the money counting stats are there and that spells upside.  He’s a sneaky stash in 12-team formats as long as he continues to show moderate improvement. 

Michael Carter-Williams hit 5-of-10 shots (including a three) and just missed out on a triple-double with 14 points, nine rebounds, 10 assists and two blocks.  Yes, he had five turnovers and yes his season-long value in 9-cat leagues is in the tank for non-punters, but he’s starting to heat up and he might be ready to make some headway.  He didn’t have much of a summer recovering from shoulder surgery and this past month has been his training camp.  Consider waiting until his next dud and making a buy-low offer.

JaKarr Sampson started at shooting guard and got MCW’s seal of approval, for whatever that’s worth, after the game.  He hit 5-of-6 shots (including two threes) for 13 points, eight rebounds and two steals in his 24 minutes, as applies for the next scholarship from the Sam Hinkie Foundation for a Better Draft Pick.  Just watch him for now. 

 

THIS STUFF’S MADE IN NEW YORK CITY (NEW YORK CITY?!?)

 

There really is nothing to say about the Kings that hasn’t been said, but if you want to hear the word ‘pace’ get said repeatedly then this is your team.  They got run by the Raptors last night and the postgame quotes are as lost and depressing as Kings Twitter is these days. 

They’re about two weeks into throwing in the towel in on a promising season — in spectacular fashion –all while trumpeting achievements such as the shooing away of Isaiah Thomas and Mike Malone along the way.  The locker room is a toxic mess and the team has stopped giving full effort on the floor.  Having covered the team closely and knowing first-hand how much goodwill this new ownership had with fans, to see the reaction on Twitter and otherwise is stunning to say the least. 

They’re going to ride with Ty Corbin unless things get truly ridiculous, and they’re already there with the front office not budging.  The Kings’ big three should be relatively fine throughout the ordeal, but they’re not going to grind through any risky situations due to injury or anything like that.  There’s a small chance that DeMarcus Cousins (13 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, two blocks, nine turnovers) or Rudy Gay (22 points, 8-of-17 FGs, two threes, three boards, three assists) gets extremely inefficient due to the overall lack of talent, but owners should keep them projected along current trajectories. 

Darren Collison (12 points, two threes, three boards, two assists, one steal) has been playing a bit over his head and the loss of either of his Team USA teammates would hurt him pretty badly from an efficiency standpoint.  He’s great in his current role but he’s not beating guys off the dribble, but rather using pick-and-roll and straight line drives when the defense attends to Cousins and Gay to get into the lane. 

The team is also desperate to make a big trade, but they’re going to need something to fall in their laps because they have very few good, tradeable assets.  A smaller trade is more likely. 

 

I’LL TAKE REVENGE GAMES FOR $500, ALEX

 

The Raptors bench is basically the Kings’ old second unit and they love to face their old team, as evidenced by Greivis Vasquez’s 18 points, four rebounds, six assists, one steal and four treys.  James Johnson (seven minutes) isn’t in the doghouse according to reliable reports, but his minutes are in the tank and anybody not named Lou Williams (27 points, four treys, 9-of-9 FTs) in the wing corps is droppable now that DeMar DeRozan is back. 

DeRozan hit 5-of-13 shots from the field for 12 points, five rebounds, six assists, one steal and one three, and as I mentioned in the Dose he is a very good buy low value since he has been a major bust for owners.  Barely treading water in 12-team leagues when on the floor, he has a mid-round upside by simply not regressing compared to last season. 

WILL WORK FOR DRAFT PICKS

 

Let this set in for a second — the Nets don’t have the rights to their own first round draft pick until 2018-19.  That the fans had to watch Joe Johnson return to Atlanta’s win factory must have been extra painful and they took a loss like everybody else does these days. 

Joe Johnson got his on the scoring end, hitting 10-of-19 shots for 26 points, three treys and zero assists, and Jarrett Jack got loose for 14 points, five boards, 13 assists, two steals and two threes.  Jack feels like he’s producing more than the mid-to-late round value he’s returning in 8- and 9-cat leagues respectively over the past month.  A combined 2.2 money stats per game (3PTs/STLs/BLKs) and higher volume 41.5 percent shooting can do that to a player. 

Mason Plumlee (14 points, seven boards, one steal, three blocks) has been particularly bad from the free throw line lately at 42.3 percent on 4.3 attempts per game in his last six contests, but he’s still a late mid-round play over the past month with nowhere to go but up.  Consider it a buy low moment because he’s bound to clean that up a little bit and Mirza Teletovic’s season-ending ailment can only help.

Alan Anderson was brought into the starting lineup because Bojan Bogdanovic is struggling mightily, and he turned in a solid night with 15 points, two threes, two boards, six assists and a steal in 36 minutes.  His season-long numbers are in the tank and his recent numbers have made him worth a look if he can hold down a heavy-minute role.  Still, he’s a flier in 12-14 team leagues at this stage in the game. 

 

SNUB ME

 

The Hawks have won 17 games in a row and after that cutting up their record into various segments is pointless – it’s all amazing any way you slice it.  They deserve four All Stars and anybody that doesn’t get that doesn’t understand how hard it is to go 38-8 in the NBA.  That and the East isn’t exactly full of high-end competition.  Just don’t be surprised if one or two of the main cogs get snubbed for big name guys because we’ve somehow allowed the All Star game to be a lifetime achievement award. 

Paul Millsap took his turn atop the Hawks’ box score last night, going berserk from the foul line with 15-of-16 makes to finish with 28 points, 15 boards, one steal, two blocks and three treys.  He’s a top 15-20 play on the year.  Al Horford joined him in the winner’s circle with 20 points on 10-of-13 shooting, 10 boards and five assists as he continues along a top 20-35 pace.  DeMarre Carroll (12 points, two threes) and Kyle Korver (17 points, five treys, one steal, two blocks) rounded out another gem in their win over the Nets.

 

TOO CUTE

 

So far the Mavs’ decision to trade for Rajon Rondo hasn’t paid off.  Their offensive efficiency has decreased and he hasn’t been productive in fantasy leagues in a Mavs uniform.  Rondo missed all seven of his shot attempts last night in their loss to the Rockets, with five turnovers to offset six assists, five rebounds, one steal and one block.  One has to think they’ll eventually figure things out – there are too many great offensive minds for them not to – but spacing will be an issue whenever Rondo is on the floor and I wouldn’t get too carried away with a buy low deal. 

One guy that is a great buy low target is Dirk Nowitzki, who started showing signs of a second half push but hit the brakes last night with just 14 points, five rebounds, two threes and one assist.  After the All Star break with some rest under his belt, look for him to start making strides back toward the top-20. 

Monta Ellis scored 33 points on 14-of-23 shooting with a full stat line and though he’s probably on the outside looking in at an All Star berth, the Mavs will probably feed him all he can eat in an attempt to position him as an injury replacement.  Chandler Parsons hit 8-of-13 shots for 21 points, five treys, three boards, two assists and one steal in a bona fide sell-high moment.  He has been a top-90 play over the last month and that’s where he’ll probably hover all year long barring a major change in dynamic. 

 

HOWARD NOT CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF

 

I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the Rockets after breaking them down thoroughly in the Dose, but to summarize I like all three big men not named Dwight Howard as short-term, speculative adds with varying elements of upside.  Howard is going to miss the next two games with knee and ankle issues and it wouldn’t be shocking if he was held out through the All Star game or thereabouts. 

If we’re looking away from the frontcourt for pickups, Corey Brewer (14 points, two threes, four rebounds, four steals, 24 minutes) has a month of solid late-round value under his belt in 24 mpg.  His usual blend of steals and threes are mostly responsible for his value, and if Howard is out the Rockets will play more small lineups and his floor is solidified. 

 

BOSTON BALLERINAS

 

The Celtics got to the foul line just nine times in last night’s loss to the Wolves, highlighting a new problem of theirs now that Jeff Green and Rajon Rondo are gone.  Neither of those guys are James Harden reincarnate, but the overall lack of explosion and playmaking is bound to make this a trend going forward. 

Evan Turner’s thumb injury didn’t cause him to miss time and he turned in 10 points, four rebounds and six assists devoid of any money counting stats.  He had been a small heater by his standards and he can’t have that to maintain value in standard leagues.  That said, Turner has been a top-110 guy in 8-cat leagues over the past 16 games and he’s a viable stop-gap solution until the torch is officially passed to Marcus Smart after the All Star break. 

Smart played 24 minutes off the bench and finished with 12 points on 4-of-7 shooting, four treys, two boards and six assists.  He is a solid late-round value over the past month with nowhere to go but up so make sure he isn’t floating around any wires.  Avery Bradley hit just 5-of-15 shots for 13 points, three steals, one block and one 3-pointer in 37 minutes.  He’s performed just under the cut line in 12-team formats for a while, but the trade of Green might make him a low-end asset. 

Brandon Bass has slowed down a bit and turned in just 10 points, six rebounds and a block in 22 minutes.  With Kelly Olynyk out through the All Star break at a minimum, he has posted mid-round value in seven games with averages of 12.7 points, 6.9 boards and 1.9 combined steals and blocks with good percentages to boot.  He’s a decent short-term pickup. 

Tyler Zeller managed just six points and nine rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench, and though he’s at the bottom of a trough in terms of production it’s still not bad enough to consider dropping him, especially given Olynyk’s injury. A bounce-back should be around the corner. 

 

CHIEF WIGGINS

 

The Wolves got Kevin Martin (wrist) back last night and he wasted no time putting up 21 points off the bench, hitting 7-of-18 shots (2-of-6 3PTs, 5-of-6 FTs) with four rebounds over 29 minutes in their win over the Celtics.  Ricky Rubio (ankle) could return next week and all of a sudden the Wolves are going to be close to full strength. 

I’ve mentioned it in the blurbs and elsewhere already but to reiterate Andrew Wiggins (12 points, three boards, three assists, one block, 40 minutes) is about to hit an extended buy low period.  Martin and Nikola Pekovic (14 points, two boards, one steal, 27 minutes) will steal away shot attempts, and Rubio will take the ball out of his hands just enough to etch away some value.  Mo Williams’ durability will increase as he takes on less of a role, and the only hope to avoid a dip if you’re Wiggins is that he experiences a big efficiency jump – an area that hasn’t been a strength on the year. 

Weeks from now as the injuries start to set in again and the Wolves are fully committed to developing Wiggins as a No. 1 guy, he’ll be ready to finish the year on a tear. 

Thaddeus Young scored 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting with nine rebounds and two steals, and hopefully he can continue to clean the glass and improve his efficiency with Rubio’s return.  He’s a buy low target if anything because his perceived value is in the trash.  Gorgui Dieng dropped 16 and 14 with three blocks on the Celtics in 35 minutes, and owners should relentlessly target him in trades as an early round guy. 

 

NURK-A-LURK

 

I don’t know what the second half of the year will bring for the Nuggets, but at a minimum they’ve become interesting from a fantasy perspective with players like Jusuf Nurkic emerging and Kenneth Faried getting on track.  Brian Shaw has slowed talk about his job being at risk, even if the team is doing the same thing as last year where they alternate between losing and winning streaks.  Ty Lawson’s arrest on suspicion of DUI is problematic on a number of levels but there is equilibrium in the box score on most nights and that’s what we’re here to talk about. 

They snapped a seven-game losing streak last night by beating a wounded Pelicans squad and Nurkic’s line was the one that stood out.  He posted 15 points on 7-of-9 shooting with nine rebounds, one steal and two blocks in 29 minutes, and Shaw finally did the right thing by playing him in the fourth quarter.  I don’t care what happens with the rookie in terms of Shaw not playing him or off-nights – he’s a guy you want to target in trades and hang onto barring a lopsided deal in your favor. 

A top-175 player on the year in a 16.2 mpg sample, he’s already a top 65-75 value over the past month in just 22.3 mpg.  This is his floor folks.  Even if the Nuggets bring in a vet via trade or start playing JaVale McGee, even Shaw can’t mess this up.  In a 30 mpg role, he’ll be an early round value. 

Wilson Chandler (nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, one trey) and Arron Afflalo (20 points, four treys, four assists) are late round guys in Denver and at approximately $7 million next season for both (Alf has a player option), they’re interesting trade assets for a contending team.  Their value would be crushed in that scenario and owners should try to get whatever they can for either guy. 

Faried isn’t going to truly be safe under Shaw but he had a nice game, scoring 14 points with seven rebounds, two steals and one block.  His lost standing under Shaw stole away any momentum he had with Team USA, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Kings worked up a package to try and bring him to Sacramento, where he’d lose value.  There’s no smoke there just yet but Pete D’Allesandro is very high on him and knows him well from his time in Denver. 

The Italian Stallion also caught my eye last night as he played down the stretch, finishing with 11 points on 4-of-8 shooting (including three treys), two rebounds, two assists and a block in 20 minutes.  I don’t want to overplay his hand here, but it’s possible the Nuggets have handled his rehabilitation the way we want all teams to do so – by giving him the proper time to get right. 

In each of his various returns he has flashed some of his old form only to get hurt, and given the likely rebuilding it wouldn’t be shocking if one of their wings gets traded and all of a sudden his minutes start creeping back toward old territory.  Is that enough for a stash right now?  Probably not unless you’re in a deep league, but it’s something I’ll be watching for on this end. 

 

GROIN PAINS (SHARING THE LAUGHTER AND LOVE)

 

Anthony Davis should come with a fifth of tequila or an antacid of your choice because there is no greater combination of risk and reward in fantasy leagues.  He went down in a heap last night and Twitter started saying words like ‘knee’ and as he got helped off the floor seasons hung in the balance.  It turned out to be a groin injury and Davis returned to play all but the final moments of the fourth quarter, when Monty Williams pulled him out because he didn’t like what he saw. 

Davis was diagnosed with a Grade-1 abductor sprain after his MRI this morning and he’ll be questionable for Friday’s game against the Clippers.   

The fantasy situation is simple here.  Upgrade Tyreke Evans (25 points, six rebounds, two assists) and Eric Gordon (11 points, six rebounds, six assists, one block, two threes, 4-of-15 FGs) for any time that Davis out.  Ryan Anderson (11 points, seven rebounds, 29 minutes) falls into that camp, too, and Alexis Ajinca could get dusted off and do well if Davis stays out beyond tonight’s Grizzlies game.  Playing the Frenchman in a DFS league or otherwise against the Grizzlies doesn’t make sense even if Davis is indeed out. 

 

THE THUNDER BLUNDER

 

The Thunder happens when narrative trumps reality.  Coach of the Year trumps playing Kendrick Perkins at a double-digit disadvantage in the playoffs.  Repeatedly.  Inside Trax sound bites on TNT packed with clichés trump the lack of discernible offensive development for half a decade.  I try not to be harsh anymore with the assessment of Scott Brooks, and to be fair, all that align with him and enable him in the form of Sam Presti, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  He is a good coach.  You can’t be a bad coach and make it in the NBA.  But he’s also never had his feet held to the fire in any meaningful way until now, and he hasn’t shown the evolutionary growth that is necessary in any winner-takes-all business. 

But this story is four years old and it’s painful to watch the believers it all back to the cliff before the inevitable jumping off. 

Now that the clock is ticking on his tenure, the Thunder are at a crossroads and things aren’t going well.  I believe they’ll pull out of the tailspin because bringing in a new coach this late would require a perfect fit, and only two coaches could come close to providing that would be Mike Malone or George Karl.  I can’t imagine the Thunder pulling the trigger on either, so eventually these guys will realize that you dance with the one that brought you there – for better or worse. 

It’s a story that’s important because the Thunder should have won two titles in five years with the crew that they have had.  Injuries are not an excuse.  With James Harden in the fold rather than Kendrick Perkins, a well-coached squad has a puncher’s chance with the talent they would have had even with Russell Westbrook out.  Serge Ibaka’s calf injury?  Leave that weak sauce at the door. 

So the Thunder took their slide into New York and old man Derek Fisher from Thunder playoff lore dinged them with a loss.   Kevin Durant’s toe injury is something more than minor because he is needed now more than ever, and for all of their parts only the hated Reggie Jackson (13 points, seven boards, four assists, four steals, one three, 28 minutes) could score more than Ibaka’s 10 points.  Dion Waiters hit 3-of-10 shots for eight points, one rebound and one three in his 20 minutes, and Westbrook did what he has been molded to do and in last night’s case it was too much.  He hit 13-of-30 shots for 40 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, one block, two threes and a perfect 12 freebies. 

Fantasy-wise, the big development was increased chatter surrounding a trade of Jackson, and he’s worth a look as a stash as we cruise toward the trade deadline.  Lord knows the Thunder need a game-changer more than any other contender out there. 

 

WE’RE LOOKING FOR PHDs AROUND HERE

 

The Knicks are going to be a fascinating case-study in what a PHD can do.  Poor, hungry and driven players like Langston Galloway (18 points, four rebounds, four assists, three steals, three treys, 37 minutes), Lance Thomas (17 points, five boards, 25 minutes), Tim Hardaway Jr. (14 points, four threes, one block) and Cleanthony Early (DNP) should all be on rosters or radars in standard leagues. 

Derek Fisher can’t be trusted to roll the ball out there and let the youngsters play in the name of development only, but he’s not going to have many other options and Carmelo Anthony (31 points, 10 boards) couldn’t surprise me if he called it a year as soon as he takes off his All Star uniform.  Jose Calderon (four points, three boards, eight assists, two steals) is struggling and on the trade block, though he has hovered at the bottom of the top-150 and can only go up if he stays on the floor. 

Veterans like Lou Amundson (five points, 10 rebounds, three assists, four blocks) and Jason Smith (11 points, 11 boards, six assists, one steal) are injury prone, so long-term even more minutes could clear out for the youth, but we know how Fisher will treat vets and they’re worth a short-term look while they’re producing. 

Outside of Galloway, who should be viewed as a mid-round producer because his numbers are mostly within a predictable stat set, the rest of the youth hasn’t broke down any doors in fantasy leagues.  Early hasn’t been able to get on the floor, period.  Thomas and Hardaway have been late-round values at best and below the cut line in Hardaway’s case due to low minutes and bad shooting. 

But these are the guys that are going to be logging heavy minutes after the All Star break.  I don’t see how you can pass up any of them other than Early in a 12-team format unless you’re stacked.   

 

MOVING ON UP

 

Check out today’s Dose for more talk on Cody Zeller (nine points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, one block), who is worth an add given the sudden lack of depth in Charlotte.  Marvin Williams (concussion) could be back this weekend but Bismack Biyombo (knee) is out at least 10 days, but the loss of Kemba Walker and lackluster play of the Hornets’ backup wings might just be enough to push Zeller over the edge in standard formats.  He’s hovered around the top-100 over the last month and is deserving of a pickup. 

Gerald Henderson scored 18 points in last night’s closer-than-expected loss to the Spurs, hitting 6-of-17 shots to go with one rebound, three assists, one steal, two blocks and one trey.  He’s going to play a full load and he has a shot at late-round value while Walker is out, but with no upside owners can watch this action from the wire. 

Brian Roberts made his debut as starting point guard and slapped a double to the opposite field with eight points on 3-of-11 shooting, two threes, three boards, six assists and three steals. As I said in the Dose I think he has top-80 upside and a late-round likelihood.  Al Jefferson (17 points, 16 boards) has been a disappointment this season but I think he’s getting geared up for a big second half.  Yes, he’ll be an injury risk and there won’t be much to play for, but he’s going to eat first, second, third and probably fourth for the Hornets. 

 

BEING GREGG POPOVICH

 

Pop was being Pop last night and that’s probably because the Spurs let the Hornets stay in the game before they eventually notched a home win.  Most notably Kawhi Leonard (nine points, 3-of-6 FGs, five boards, three assists, one steal) played just 23 minutes and Cory Joseph got all the praise in the postgame, which isn’t as surprising as it is annoying for Leonard’s owners.  As one of those folks, I actually don’t really mind because I’m more focused on his durability than anything else.  Improvements on his second round value will come as the year goes on, assuming he can stay off the injury report. 

Tim Duncan went for 12 and 14 with two steals and three blocks in case there were any All Star votes that were yet to be made, and Tony Parker continued his string of semi-productive outings going with 17 and five.  Danny Green made the non-believers kick themselves with 16 points, four treys, five rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks as he continues his top 25-40 pace. 

 

BROKEN WING

 

Leave it to the Clippers to make a 32-14 record look like something less.  They landed in Utah without the services of J.J. Redick (back), who could be back as soon as Friday, but any injury to their brittle and shallow wing corps could be a major problem for them.  They made do in an ugly road win over the Jazz and they did so behind solid performances from the rest of their wing attack, paced by Jamal Crawford’s 21 points and four triples in a spot start. 

Matt Barnes has turned around an incredibly slow start and been a solid mid-round value for owners lately, and last night he put up 14 points with five rebounds, one steal, one block and two threes while bringing the usual pugnacious antics.

I wrote somewhere around here that Blake Griffin was enjoying a mini buy-low moment after a stretch of improved shooting but no improvement rebounding the ball.  The shooting is likely to come back to earth and that showed in a 7-of-17 night from the field (3-of-6 FTs), and he finished with 17 points, seven boards, three assists, one steal and one block in an otherwise solid night.  And also as mentioned a million times, he needs to play closer to the hoop in order to get close to his ADP. 

 

¿DISCULPE, HABLA INGLES?

 

The Jazz are one of my favorite teams to watch because of all of their young talent, but I like best the way they all fit together and I’m still a Quin Snyder fan.  The ascension of Joe Ingles has been a pleasure to watch as well, because he has flashed a solid fantasy stat set in limited minutes and he continues to up the ante. 

Ingles scored 10 points on 3-of-7 shooting (including two threes) with five rebounds, seven assists and one steal in 35 minutes, getting praise from the coach and others for both offense and defense.  Even when Rodney Hood comes back at some point beyond the All Star break, I don’t see Ingles losing the significant role he has earned. 

What’s interesting about his versatile stat set is that he doesn’t have any real history overseas showing that type of production.  Over his last 15 games he’s averaging 6.1 points, 1.1 threes, 3.3 boards, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.3 blocks while making a low-volume 40 percent from the field and 82 percent from the line.  That’s good for top 110-120 value in 27.1 mpg and he’s slowly moved toward a mid-round position over the past two weeks with minutes inching north of 30 minutes per contest. 

This is truly a question of whether or not you believe your eyes or the spreadsheet.  Players can be deployed very differently in Europe and I’m betting on my eyes, at least in terms of betting on a late-round return for the rest of the year.  Factor in the potential for some mid-round value and I’m calling him a must-own player in standard formats. 

Derrick Favors joined the mass of those suffering from wrist injuries but still managed 18 and nine with two blocks so don’t adjust your projections just yet.  Enes Kanter (21 & 11, one block, 36 minutes) continues to play a solid complementary role next to Rudy Gobert (seven points, three boards, one block, 10 minutes) and I like him to hold must-own value the rest of the year.  Gobert is going to etch away at his value but unless Kanter loses his touch offensively, a strong point of his, then he’ll get enough run to hold the line. 

As for Gobert, Snyder said he had a bad game and I’d take that as one of the few chances you might get to buy Gobert low.  I’ve said it before and I’m doubling down again – he’s one of the next great big men in the NBA (not in history obviously, but going forward).  He has it all and he’ll only get better.  A top 50-60 value over the past two weeks in just 23.5 mpg, this will be a low-water mark for a guy returning top 20-40 value over the past month. 

Dante Exum was a popular add in some places (not here) when he was moved into the starting role, and he had yet another terrible game with three points on 1-of-6 shooting and not much else.  It feels like the Jazz are forcing the action here to see how he responds, but his fantasy deficiencies and overall lackluster play make him a fairly obvious drop.  He might get it together later in the year, but the cost of that real estate on your roster won’t be worth the investment.  Likewise, Trey Burke (11 points, four rebounds, one assist, two threes, 31 minutes) will probably finish out the year in a late-round position, but he’s suffering as a scorer on the second unit versus being a playmaker as a starter. 

DOIN THE HUMPHY HUMPH

 

‘Schedule’ wins or losses are a real thing in the NBA and the Wizards’ loss to the Suns last night fell into that category.  They were in their fourth city in five nights with John Wall dealing with a sore Achilles’, ankle issues and a migraine, explaining his 5-of-16 shooting night.  That he racked up 11 points, seven boards, seven assists, one steal, two blocks and a three speaks to how good he is.  He’s going to be seen for his migraines and has until Saturday’s game against the Raptors to get himself right. 

Nene’s foot issues popped back up and that’s enough to remove most of his mild momentum in 12-team leagues.  He is day-to-day after missing last night’s contest and Kris Humphries (11 points, 15 boards, 33 minutes) is back on the radar.  As I said in the Dose, he has been a late-round value in 12-team leagues over the last month in just 22 mpg, and that gives him a late-round floor with slight mid-round upside for any time that Nene misses. 

Paul Pierce (toe) got back on the floor and logged 24 minutes on his way to nine points, four rebounds, a trey and not much else.  He has been scuffling lately with just 14-16 team value over the past few weeks, but with a top-100 body of work he simply needs to be benched, not dropped. 

Bradley Beal is now a top 80-90 value in the games he has played this season, and along with the missed games from earlier in the year I feel pretty good about my 113/125 rank (8/9 cat) in my preseason Bruski 150.  All of his numbers are in the right place and some are actually better than projected, but he’s taking nearly three less shots per game (13.1) compared to last year.  Perhaps that’s the Pierce effect or he simply hasn’t caught his wind yet.  I do think he’ll continue to improve as the year goes on but those viewing him as an emerging mid-round asset should reassess. 

 

SUNNY SIDE UP

 

The Suns are happy and clicking with a 15-6 record over their last 21 games and they further solidified their hold on the eight-spot in the West with a win over the Wiz.  I wouldn’t go so far as to say this was their best work, but it’s the mark of an improving team that they take advantage of teams limping like the Wizards were last night. 

The usual suspects had their fingerprints on the game.  Goran Dragic scored 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting with two threes, three boards, two assists and two steals as he hovers around a top-50 pace.  Markieff Morris posted 16 points, seven boards and four assists, and Isaiah Thomas looks like he’s enjoying life with a healthier shooting wrist after another big effort from deep. 

The original Pizza Guy hit just 4-of-13 shots but all four were triples to go toward an 18-point, four-assist night in just 20 minutes.  He’s returning top 60-65 value in just 25.4 mpg on the year, speaking to his top-25 upside, but he is also a few percentage points low in terms of accuracy and a prime buy low candidate.  I think the Suns would need to be blown away on a trade offer to move Dragic, but Bledsoe has some injury risk and anytime you can grab an asset like Thomas that is flying under the radar I think you make all reasonable moves. 

As an aside, Thomas is also seventh in the league in fourth quarter scoring at 6.2 ppg.  He’s hitting a Kyle Korver-like percentage of 47.6/47.3/89.4% and logging 9.1 mpg.  That puts him squarely in the Sixth Man of the Year race, even if it’ll take a little while for the national media to catch up on that, and I sure as hell wouldn’t be crowing about the decision to shoo him away if you’re Sacramento. 

Brandan Wright should be on owners’ radars as a stash in advance of the trade deadline as mentioned in the Dose.  He had his best game in Phoenix with 13 points, five rebounds, one steal and one block on 6-of-7 shooting and needs just 20 mpg to make it all work.  Miles Plumlee is firmly on the trading block and the aggressive owner looks at Wright’s value as a ‘when’ and not an ‘if.’   

The Morris twins also surfaced in a report that they were part of a possible assault investigation that occurred outside of a Phoenix gym.  Let’s see if the report holds any water before rendering any judgment.  

Finally, don’t panic on Alex Len after his eight-point, two-rebound night.  His trajectory as a player is pointed in the right direction and altogether I wouldn’t be surprised if next year’s Suns are this year’s Atlanta Hawks.