Draft Strategy: 2015 Category Sleepers Review
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Over the past 10 weeks, I’ve looked at sleepers for each 5×5 category. Over that time, there has been plenty of movement on the hot stove, and numerous sleepers I’ve mentioned have fallen victim. The following will be an update of the impact of those moves on sleepers I’ve named previously, along with a brief, early look at five 2015 average draft position (ADP) undervalued players.
An important note before we get too far into ADP. Being that we’re still in January, ADP information is quite limited. I’ll be mentioning some undervalued players using the ADP from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. However, when you look for an ADP source for your draft, I strongly recommend only using the source of your online draft room, if that applies. All online draft rooms have pre-rankings, and those pre-rankings create bias for the drafters regardless of whether owners are using autodraft to complete their teams. Using the ADP of your draft room helps account for that bias created by often poorly tested rankings.
That said, we still have some value to draw from the early National Fantasy Baseball Championship ADP no matter where your draft will be taking place.
ADP Undervalued
Luke Gregerson, ADP 273.22
Gregerson signed with Houston to be their closer, replacing Chad Qualls. The team is clearly better on paper after adding Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Jed Lowrie, Evan Gattis, and Luis Valbuena, among others. Gregerson has limited experience closing, but he does have 19 career saves and a sub-3.00 ERA in four consecutive seasons. Neshek and Qualls stand as threats if Gregerson gets out of the gate slowly, but a career 2.76 ERA in save situations is promising. However, the only clear closers Gregerson beats out at his current draft spot are Jonathan Broxton, already on shaky footing following the Jonathan Papelbon rumors, and 42-year-old LaTroy Hawkins.
Jesse Hahn, ADP 300.16
Hahn was traded from San Diego to Oakland in the Derek Norris deal this offseason, giving the A’s even more youth. He was fantastic in his major league debut with the Padres last season, posting a 3.07 ERA in 73.1 innings. Hahn had a very strong minor league track record, and he is renowned for his curveball. With a career 2.26 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning during his minor league career, I would expect Hahn to jump up draft boards as fantasy owners become more aware of him.
Joc Pederson, ADP 220.53
“It’s all relative” and relative to the other elite prospects in baseball with an eye toward a roster spot on Opening Day, Pederson is a bargain. He ranks as the 54th outfielder in ADP, which would seem quite low given his immense upside. Pederson hit .303-33-78 with 30 steals at Triple-A Albuquerque last season, and seems likely to beat out Andre Ethier for a starting job if he has a decent spring. There is some nervousness regarding Pederson’s batting average after fanning 149 times in 121 games, but the number of 20/20 outfielders are now few and far between. Still, he ranks more than 100 spots behind Kris Bryant, Rusney Castillo, and Javier Baez, while a strong argument can be made that he has the most roto potential of the group.
Steven Souza, ADP 296.16
Souza’s prospects for playing time skyrocketed after getting traded from Washington to Tampa Bay in the Wil Myers deal this offseason. A late bloomer, Souza hit .350-18-75 with 26 steals in only 96 games at Triple-A Syracuse last season in his age 25 season. He’s consistently hit over the last three seasons, and would have to play himself out of a regular role at the beginning of the season. It’s rare that this much five-tool ability and playing opportunity lasts until nearly pick 300.
Alex Wood, ADP 104.03
Wood’s prospects for wins have taken a huge hit this offseason with Atlanta’s rebuilding, but it’s hard to overlook his talent. The lefty was phenomenal in every role he served last season, and has a 2.89 ERA in his first 249.1 major league innings. He was one of baseball’s best pitchers during the second half of a season as a full-time member of the rotation, compiling a 2.20 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in 86 innings. He had a 2.59 ERA for the year as a starter, and with the potential for 200 innings this season Wood could be a top 10 starter for the price of a top 30. He looks out of place behind Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb, and James Shields.
Sleeper Updates
Tyler Clippard, Saves
Clippard was previously mentioned as a saves sleeper behind Drew Storen in Washington. After getting traded to Oakland, he’s well in line for saves as Oakland’s probable No. 1 backup plan in Sean Doolittle’s stead. Doolittle is destined to start the year on the DL with shoulder trouble, but pitched well enough to reclaim the closer role if and when he returns healthy. In the meantime, Clippard is a fine addition for at least 5-10 saves.
Anthony DeSclafani, WHIP
Showing pinpoint control, DeSclafani looked like a fine flier in a pitcher’s park like Miami. After getting traded to Cincinnati in the Mat Latos deal, his prospects for success are more difficult. The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is notorious for its shallow confines, and DeSclafani isn’t a great fit as an extreme flyball pitcher. He looks like a strong candidate to start the year in the Reds’ rotation, but keeping his ERA and WHIP manageable for fantasy owners seems less likely.
Nathan Eovaldi, ERA
Eovaldi was sent to the Yankees for Martin Prado, giving the Bronx Bombers some upside. Obviously, the move to the AL and the Yankees doesn’t help Eovaldi’s value in mixed leagues, but sabermetricians still go in with the optimism that Eovaldi is due for better luck after posting a .327 BABIP with the Marlins last season. Still, the upside seems more for AL-only owners after the trade.
Evan Gattis, RBI
Gattis was all set to hit in the middle of Atlanta’s weakened lineup, though a trade during the team’s rebuilding project wasn’t surprising. Atlanta will likely make Gattis a regular outfielder, and also a fallback plan at first base should Jonathan Singleton continue to struggle. Gattis is more likely to stay healthy when he doesn’t have to man the tools of ignorance behind the plate, and he should still hit in the middle of the lineup with Houston. The Astros certainly aren’t the best situation Gattis could have entered, but it’s far from the bleak destination that it was the last few years.
Brandon McCarthy, ERA
McCarthy’s name is on nearly every sleeper list at this point, especially after entering a great situation like the Dodgers. Dodger Stadium is a great park for pitchers, and the team talent should help McCarthy in the win department. As always, it’s a question of whether McCarthy can stay healthy, as he did for the first time in a long while in 2014.
After signing Pablo Sandoval to play the hot corner, Boston sold low on Middlebrooks this offseason. It’s reassuring that he will see regular at-bats in San Diego, but as fantasy owners know, PETCO Park is far from a hitter’s haven. Despite his struggles last season, Middlebrooks has still shown 20-plus home run upside and should still be a decent play in NL-only leagues.
Jace Peterson, SB
Mentioned as an NL-only sleeper and probable starter at shortstop for the Padres, Peterson was sent to Atlanta in the Justin Upton trade. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with the Braves, though Peterson should still compete for the second base job against Alberto Callaspo and the newly-acquired Kelly Johnson. The problem is that the Braves have top middle infield prospect Jose Peraza on the horizon, so Peterson isn’t in a great situation.
Josh Rutledge, BA
It’s easy to say that getting out of Colorado is a hindrance to a hitter’s upside. Still, the Angels seem inclined to go into 2015 with Rutledge as their starting second baseman after acquiring him for top relief prospect Jairo Diaz. Rutledge still has some upside given his minor league track record as a career .328 hitter. However, he’s probably just an AL-only flier at this point.
Marcus Semien, HR
The A’s seem dedicated to Semien as their starting shortstop or second baseman after acquiring him in the Jeff Samardzija deal. Semien appeared on the depth chart as as a utilityman for a few days after Oakland acquired Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar from Tampa Bay, but he went back to the projected starting lineup after Escobar was traded to Washington. Of course, Oakland is a tougher park for power hitters than U.S. Cellular Field, but Semien won’t have to battle for at-bats like he needed to do in Chicago. He’s a fine sleeper as a potential 15/15 player.
Joe Wieland, WHIP
Wieland entered the offseason with his sights set on a rotation spot in San Diego. It’s not impossible that he would still get some starts this season after going to the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp trade. The Dodgers have filled the backend of their rotation with two pitchers with major injury histories in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, so there could be opportunity. However, the Dodgers also added Juan Nicasio this offseason and have the resources to add another starting pitcher should the need arise.
Over the past 10 weeks, I’ve looked at sleepers for each 5×5 category. Over that time, there has been plenty of movement on the hot stove, and numerous sleepers I’ve mentioned have fallen victim. The following will be an update of the impact of those moves on sleepers I’ve named previously, along with a brief, early look at five 2015 average draft position (ADP) undervalued players.
An important note before we get too far into ADP. Being that we’re still in January, ADP information is quite limited. I’ll be mentioning some undervalued players using the ADP from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. However, when you look for an ADP source for your draft, I strongly recommend only using the source of your online draft room, if that applies. All online draft rooms have pre-rankings, and those pre-rankings create bias for the drafters regardless of whether owners are using autodraft to complete their teams. Using the ADP of your draft room helps account for that bias created by often poorly tested rankings.
That said, we still have some value to draw from the early National Fantasy Baseball Championship ADP no matter where your draft will be taking place.
ADP Undervalued
Luke Gregerson, ADP 273.22
Gregerson signed with Houston to be their closer, replacing Chad Qualls. The team is clearly better on paper after adding Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Jed Lowrie, Evan Gattis, and Luis Valbuena, among others. Gregerson has limited experience closing, but he does have 19 career saves and a sub-3.00 ERA in four consecutive seasons. Neshek and Qualls stand as threats if Gregerson gets out of the gate slowly, but a career 2.76 ERA in save situations is promising. However, the only clear closers Gregerson beats out at his current draft spot are Jonathan Broxton, already on shaky footing following the Jonathan Papelbon rumors, and 42-year-old LaTroy Hawkins.
Jesse Hahn, ADP 300.16
Hahn was traded from San Diego to Oakland in the Derek Norris deal this offseason, giving the A’s even more youth. He was fantastic in his major league debut with the Padres last season, posting a 3.07 ERA in 73.1 innings. Hahn had a very strong minor league track record, and he is renowned for his curveball. With a career 2.26 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning during his minor league career, I would expect Hahn to jump up draft boards as fantasy owners become more aware of him.
Joc Pederson, ADP 220.53
“It’s all relative” and relative to the other elite prospects in baseball with an eye toward a roster spot on Opening Day, Pederson is a bargain. He ranks as the 54th outfielder in ADP, which would seem quite low given his immense upside. Pederson hit .303-33-78 with 30 steals at Triple-A Albuquerque last season, and seems likely to beat out Andre Ethier for a starting job if he has a decent spring. There is some nervousness regarding Pederson’s batting average after fanning 149 times in 121 games, but the number of 20/20 outfielders are now few and far between. Still, he ranks more than 100 spots behind Kris Bryant, Rusney Castillo, and Javier Baez, while a strong argument can be made that he has the most roto potential of the group.
Steven Souza, ADP 296.16
Souza’s prospects for playing time skyrocketed after getting traded from Washington to Tampa Bay in the Wil Myers deal this offseason. A late bloomer, Souza hit .350-18-75 with 26 steals in only 96 games at Triple-A Syracuse last season in his age 25 season. He’s consistently hit over the last three seasons, and would have to play himself out of a regular role at the beginning of the season. It’s rare that this much five-tool ability and playing opportunity lasts until nearly pick 300.
Alex Wood, ADP 104.03
Wood’s prospects for wins have taken a huge hit this offseason with Atlanta’s rebuilding, but it’s hard to overlook his talent. The lefty was phenomenal in every role he served last season, and has a 2.89 ERA in his first 249.1 major league innings. He was one of baseball’s best pitchers during the second half of a season as a full-time member of the rotation, compiling a 2.20 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in 86 innings. He had a 2.59 ERA for the year as a starter, and with the potential for 200 innings this season Wood could be a top 10 starter for the price of a top 30. He looks out of place behind Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb, and James Shields.
Sleeper Updates
Tyler Clippard, Saves
Clippard was previously mentioned as a saves sleeper behind Drew Storen in Washington. After getting traded to Oakland, he’s well in line for saves as Oakland’s probable No. 1 backup plan in Sean Doolittle’s stead. Doolittle is destined to start the year on the DL with shoulder trouble, but pitched well enough to reclaim the closer role if and when he returns healthy. In the meantime, Clippard is a fine addition for at least 5-10 saves.
Anthony DeSclafani, WHIP
Showing pinpoint control, DeSclafani looked like a fine flier in a pitcher’s park like Miami. After getting traded to Cincinnati in the Mat Latos deal, his prospects for success are more difficult. The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is notorious for its shallow confines, and DeSclafani isn’t a great fit as an extreme flyball pitcher. He looks like a strong candidate to start the year in the Reds’ rotation, but keeping his ERA and WHIP manageable for fantasy owners seems less likely.
Nathan Eovaldi, ERA
Eovaldi was sent to the Yankees for Martin Prado, giving the Bronx Bombers some upside. Obviously, the move to the AL and the Yankees doesn’t help Eovaldi’s value in mixed leagues, but sabermetricians still go in with the optimism that Eovaldi is due for better luck after posting a .327 BABIP with the Marlins last season. Still, the upside seems more for AL-only owners after the trade.
Evan Gattis, RBI
Gattis was all set to hit in the middle of Atlanta’s weakened lineup, though a trade during the team’s rebuilding project wasn’t surprising. Atlanta will likely make Gattis a regular outfielder, and also a fallback plan at first base should Jonathan Singleton continue to struggle. Gattis is more likely to stay healthy when he doesn’t have to man the tools of ignorance behind the plate, and he should still hit in the middle of the lineup with Houston. The Astros certainly aren’t the best situation Gattis could have entered, but it’s far from the bleak destination that it was the last few years.
Brandon McCarthy, ERA
McCarthy’s name is on nearly every sleeper list at this point, especially after entering a great situation like the Dodgers. Dodger Stadium is a great park for pitchers, and the team talent should help McCarthy in the win department. As always, it’s a question of whether McCarthy can stay healthy, as he did for the first time in a long while in 2014.
After signing Pablo Sandoval to play the hot corner, Boston sold low on Middlebrooks this offseason. It’s reassuring that he will see regular at-bats in San Diego, but as fantasy owners know, PETCO Park is far from a hitter’s haven. Despite his struggles last season, Middlebrooks has still shown 20-plus home run upside and should still be a decent play in NL-only leagues.
Jace Peterson, SB
Mentioned as an NL-only sleeper and probable starter at shortstop for the Padres, Peterson was sent to Atlanta in the Justin Upton trade. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with the Braves, though Peterson should still compete for the second base job against Alberto Callaspo and the newly-acquired Kelly Johnson. The problem is that the Braves have top middle infield prospect Jose Peraza on the horizon, so Peterson isn’t in a great situation.
Josh Rutledge, BA
It’s easy to say that getting out of Colorado is a hindrance to a hitter’s upside. Still, the Angels seem inclined to go into 2015 with Rutledge as their starting second baseman after acquiring him for top relief prospect Jairo Diaz. Rutledge still has some upside given his minor league track record as a career .328 hitter. However, he’s probably just an AL-only flier at this point.
Marcus Semien, HR
The A’s seem dedicated to Semien as their starting shortstop or second baseman after acquiring him in the Jeff Samardzija deal. Semien appeared on the depth chart as as a utilityman for a few days after Oakland acquired Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar from Tampa Bay, but he went back to the projected starting lineup after Escobar was traded to Washington. Of course, Oakland is a tougher park for power hitters than U.S. Cellular Field, but Semien won’t have to battle for at-bats like he needed to do in Chicago. He’s a fine sleeper as a potential 15/15 player.
Joe Wieland, WHIP
Wieland entered the offseason with his sights set on a rotation spot in San Diego. It’s not impossible that he would still get some starts this season after going to the Dodgers in the Matt Kemp trade. The Dodgers have filled the backend of their rotation with two pitchers with major injury histories in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, so there could be opportunity. However, the Dodgers also added Juan Nicasio this offseason and have the resources to add another starting pitcher should the need arise.
Recommended article: Chomsky: We Are All – Fill in the Blank.
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