Draft Strategy: Third Baseman Resurgence
Monday, January 26, 2015
Major league baseball has seen a gradual decline in offense since the 2010 season ended. Then, the average team scored 4.38 runs per game. It dropped to 4.28 in 2011, rose slightly up to 4.32 in 2012 and fell drastically to 4.17 and 4.07 in the last two seasons. The difference of about 0.3 runs per game comes out to close to 50 runs per team over the course of a season, and about 1,500 from all 30 teams combined. The game that once saw its 37-year-old single-season home run record – 61, held by Roger Maris – surpassed six times in the four year period between 1998 and 2001 has now become dominated by pitching and defense.
As a result of this shift in the way the game is being played, fantasy owners have had to become increasingly shrewd to find valuable fantasy assets. 100 RBI players are no longer two or three to a team the way they were in 2000; one can now be found on average on every third team. 40-homer hitters are seen only once or twice per season nowadays, compared to 16 in the 2000 season alone.
The downward offensive trend hasn’t been uniform, however. Among the six general positions – catcher, first- second- and third- base, shortstop and outfield – five have had a steady offensive decline. Only one position, third base, posted a higher weighted on-base average (wOBA) last year than it did in 2011. Weighted on-base average is a stat found at FanGraphs that uniquely weights each way a player contributes on offense: singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, hit by pitches, etc. Third base used to be a position nearly as offensively weak as shortstop and second base, but it has seen a resurgence.
Here’s a look at the major league average wOBA at each position over the last four seasons:
| C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | .309 | .338 | .306 | .310 | .302 | .326 |
| 2012 | .312 | .331 | .302 | .320 | .300 | .327 |
| 2013 | .307 | .333 | .305 | .314 | .298 | .322 |
| 2014 | .305 | .328 | .298 | .316 | .297 | .319 |
wRC+ is a similar statistic that takes wOBA, adjusts it for park effects, and puts it on a scale such that 100 is league average. I looked at the frequency of wRC+ ranges for third basemen (min. 300 plate appearances) since 2011:
| wRC+ | 2011 (41) | 2012 (35) | 2013 (40) | 2014 (36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 100 | 46.3% | 42.9% | 52.5% | 27.8% |
| 100-109 | 14.6% | 20.0% | 15.0% | 30.6% |
| 110-119 | 12.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| 120-129 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 5.0% | 13.9% |
| 130-139 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| 140-149 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| 150 and above | 0.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
(sample sizes in parentheses)
In 2014, we saw the frequency of below-average offensive performances nearly halved. Although they are few and far between, we have also seen some more elite performers at the position. Mostly, though, the shift is found between the league average and slightly above it (100-109). This range included players like Casey McGehee, Yangervis Solarte, Conor Gillaspie and David Freese. They were either taken very late in drafts or left undrafted.
While some familiar names topped the third base leaderboards (Adrian Beltre), we also saw plenty of breakout campaigns from the likes of Anthony Rendon, Josh Harrison, Kyle Seager and Lonnie Chisenhall. Let’s not forget Kris Bryant, Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo and Garin Cecchini, who are on their way as well. The long-term future of third base is quite good.
Acknowledging the distribution of the talent is important for fantasy players. As the performance at the top has remained unchanged, targeting a top-tier third baseman like Beltre or Rendon is still wise. However, if you miss out there, it’s worth saving your draft slots or auction dollars for another position where production is scarcer.
Here’s the wRC+ distribution as projected by Steamer (found at FanGraphs) for third basemen in 2015 (min. 300 PA):
o Below 100: 15 of 43 (34.9%)
o 100-109: 13 (30.2%)
o 110-119: 7 (16.3%)
o 120-129: 8 (18.6%)
o 130-139:0
o 140-149: 0
o 150 and above: 0
Third base is projected to be about the same in 2015 as it was in 2014, with very little difference in the middle. As a result, once the top third basemen (Beltre, Donaldson, Rendon) are off the board, fantasy owners should be targeting specific skills like speed or power, or they should just forget about the position for a while.
For instance, Aramis Ramirez is projected to bat .266/.324/.431 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI. In a standard mixed 5×5 rotisserie league, Ramirez will likely be taken somewhere around 150th on average. Mike Moustakas, who would likely wind up undrafted in such a league, is projected at .248/.305/.415 with 17 home runs and 61 RBI. Trevor Plouffe is projected at .248/.315/.412 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI and will likely be available a few rounds after Ramirez. One can get value out of Ramirez’s draft slot at another position (with say, with Chris Archer or Jimmy Rollins) while maintaining comparable production.
Third base is one of the easiest areas in which suave fantasy players can make inroads against the opposition. It requires some research as well as discipline, but it’ll be worth it if you’re the last one standing at the end of the season.
Major league baseball has seen a gradual decline in offense since the 2010 season ended. Then, the average team scored 4.38 runs per game. It dropped to 4.28 in 2011, rose slightly up to 4.32 in 2012 and fell drastically to 4.17 and 4.07 in the last two seasons. The difference of about 0.3 runs per game comes out to close to 50 runs per team over the course of a season, and about 1,500 from all 30 teams combined. The game that once saw its 37-year-old single-season home run record – 61, held by Roger Maris – surpassed six times in the four year period between 1998 and 2001 has now become dominated by pitching and defense.
As a result of this shift in the way the game is being played, fantasy owners have had to become increasingly shrewd to find valuable fantasy assets. 100 RBI players are no longer two or three to a team the way they were in 2000; one can now be found on average on every third team. 40-homer hitters are seen only once or twice per season nowadays, compared to 16 in the 2000 season alone.
The downward offensive trend hasn’t been uniform, however. Among the six general positions – catcher, first- second- and third- base, shortstop and outfield – five have had a steady offensive decline. Only one position, third base, posted a higher weighted on-base average (wOBA) last year than it did in 2011. Weighted on-base average is a stat found at FanGraphs that uniquely weights each way a player contributes on offense: singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, hit by pitches, etc. Third base used to be a position nearly as offensively weak as shortstop and second base, but it has seen a resurgence.
Here’s a look at the major league average wOBA at each position over the last four seasons:
| C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | .309 | .338 | .306 | .310 | .302 | .326 |
| 2012 | .312 | .331 | .302 | .320 | .300 | .327 |
| 2013 | .307 | .333 | .305 | .314 | .298 | .322 |
| 2014 | .305 | .328 | .298 | .316 | .297 | .319 |
wRC+ is a similar statistic that takes wOBA, adjusts it for park effects, and puts it on a scale such that 100 is league average. I looked at the frequency of wRC+ ranges for third basemen (min. 300 plate appearances) since 2011:
| wRC+ | 2011 (41) | 2012 (35) | 2013 (40) | 2014 (36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 100 | 46.3% | 42.9% | 52.5% | 27.8% |
| 100-109 | 14.6% | 20.0% | 15.0% | 30.6% |
| 110-119 | 12.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| 120-129 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 5.0% | 13.9% |
| 130-139 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% |
| 140-149 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| 150 and above | 0.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% |
(sample sizes in parentheses)
In 2014, we saw the frequency of below-average offensive performances nearly halved. Although they are few and far between, we have also seen some more elite performers at the position. Mostly, though, the shift is found between the league average and slightly above it (100-109). This range included players like Casey McGehee, Yangervis Solarte, Conor Gillaspie and David Freese. They were either taken very late in drafts or left undrafted.
While some familiar names topped the third base leaderboards (Adrian Beltre), we also saw plenty of breakout campaigns from the likes of Anthony Rendon, Josh Harrison, Kyle Seager and Lonnie Chisenhall. Let’s not forget Kris Bryant, Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo and Garin Cecchini, who are on their way as well. The long-term future of third base is quite good.
Acknowledging the distribution of the talent is important for fantasy players. As the performance at the top has remained unchanged, targeting a top-tier third baseman like Beltre or Rendon is still wise. However, if you miss out there, it’s worth saving your draft slots or auction dollars for another position where production is scarcer.
Here’s the wRC+ distribution as projected by Steamer (found at FanGraphs) for third basemen in 2015 (min. 300 PA):
o Below 100: 15 of 43 (34.9%)
o 100-109: 13 (30.2%)
o 110-119: 7 (16.3%)
o 120-129: 8 (18.6%)
o 130-139:0
o 140-149: 0
o 150 and above: 0
Third base is projected to be about the same in 2015 as it was in 2014, with very little difference in the middle. As a result, once the top third basemen (Beltre, Donaldson, Rendon) are off the board, fantasy owners should be targeting specific skills like speed or power, or they should just forget about the position for a while.
For instance, Aramis Ramirez is projected to bat .266/.324/.431 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI. In a standard mixed 5×5 rotisserie league, Ramirez will likely be taken somewhere around 150th on average. Mike Moustakas, who would likely wind up undrafted in such a league, is projected at .248/.305/.415 with 17 home runs and 61 RBI. Trevor Plouffe is projected at .248/.315/.412 with 16 home runs and 60 RBI and will likely be available a few rounds after Ramirez. One can get value out of Ramirez’s draft slot at another position (with say, with Chris Archer or Jimmy Rollins) while maintaining comparable production.
Third base is one of the easiest areas in which suave fantasy players can make inroads against the opposition. It requires some research as well as discipline, but it’ll be worth it if you’re the last one standing at the end of the season.
Recommended article: Chomsky: We Are All – Fill in the Blank.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
