The Daily Dose: Dose: Klay Breaks the Mold
Everything is relative and that’s certainly true in basketball. Klay Thompson skewed the way we’ll use “on fire” or “unstoppable” for the rest of the season, and maybe ever. The 24-year-old guard scored an NBA-record 37 points in the third quarter during a 126-101 victory against the Kings in Oakland on Friday, finishing with a career-high 52 points with two rebounds, five assists, four steals, two blocks and 11 treys on 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-10 from the line. Insane.
The third quarter was arguably one of the coolest 12 minutes of basketball in the history of the NBA. The Kings were actually tied with the Warriors at 58, but Klay’s first two points of the quarter gave the Warriors the lead and they never looked back. His 37 points were almost double the Kings scoring 22 points in that frame. Plus, the Nets scored just 37 points in the first half of Thursday’s loss to the Clippers. Here’s a glance at what his shot chart looked like on his 13-of-13 shooting:
That’s good for a 134.6 effective field goal percentage in the quarter. Even going 9-of-9 from deep is crazy by itself. In fact, if you consider Klay was making 44.4 percent from three this season before Friday, he had a 0.06 percent chance to make nine in a row. There are a ton of ways to describe it and none of them can compare to just watching it. You can watch all of his 13 field goal makes in this video. It’s worth your time and NBATV will definitely re-air it.
OK, so after wrapping our heads around how out of this world it was, what does it really mean for him the rest of the season? He was already in the midst of a breakout season and he’s doing a heck of a lot more than just knock down treys. Thompson is on pace for career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, triples, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Thompson’s usage rate is soaring at 27.4 this season, which crushes last season’s rate of 22.6. If we drafted today for a nine-category league, there’s really no way he should slide out of the top 10.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Saturday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Saturday. Here’s the FanDuel link.
Notable Injuries Heading Into Friday Games
Friday was actually a really interesting day before Klay and it started with some bad news. Kobe Bryant is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a tear in his rotator cuff. This would be the third time in his last three seasons in which he was unable to finish the season. Two seasons ago he had an Achilles tear and last year he had a knee injury. We’ll talk more on this later when we recap the Lakers. You can cut Kobe in all re-draft fantasy leagues.
The other big story heading into the weekend is LaMarcus Aldridge set to miss the next 6-8 weeks due to surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb. Considering it’s a surgical procedure, he’s very unlikely to beat this prognosis. If you’re in a head-to-head weekly league and you’re not hurting in the standings, it’s not a bad idea to stash Aldridge. Of course, this is a decision you’re going to have to weigh on your own and take into account the non-basketball factors of your league.
The big question everyone wants an answer to is what are the Blazers going to do now? Nicolas Batum is also likely to miss time, so it’s going to get extremely wild in their rotation. In fact, here’s a look at the top 19 of the 21 lineups Stotts used on Thursday night:
Yeah, that’s not something most fantasy owners are going to want to mess with. The one thing that is interesting to me is that Victor Claver and Dorell Wright picked up a lot of run at small forward. That was something they usually do not do with Batum in the lineup. With that, Thomas Robinson should have more chances to play at power forward along with Meyers Leonard getting more run at the four/five. T-Rob can’t shoot free throws and I’d guess about 80 percent of his offense is going to come off O-boards. In fact, here’s a quick look at how often he doesn’t dribble before his shots:
Truck is actually solid on jumpers this year at 36.0 percent, so he should stick in the rotation until Nicolas Batum is out. That said, unless Batum is ruled out for multiple weeks — an unlikely scenario — fantasy owners will probably just want to avoid this situation from a pickup standpoint. Expect to see more Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews.
Kevin Martin is dealing with some swelling in his wrist and he’s up in the air for Sunday. It sounds like he’s on track to play, but the Wolves aren’t going to want to play him at less than 100 percent. They would probably like to trade him this season for a draft pick and they’re currently tanking with the worst record in the NBA. He’s still someone worth grabbing in just about all fantasy leagues. Expect Robbie Hummel to get more run again.
Ryan Anderson is out with bilateral ankle inflammation. That’s a very interesting diagnosis, especially with how the Pelicans diagnosed Jrue Holiday with ankle inflammation. To explain further, Anderson has swelling in both of his ankles. It’s possible he had two mild ankle sprains to cause the inflammation or it could be something else. The Pelicans usually keep us in the dark on stuff like this, so maybe Anderson misses time. We’ll discuss the Pelicans in the game recap below.
Mirza Teletovic is out for the season due to blood clotting in his lungs. Hopefully he can return next season. The Nets are likely going to deal Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett is also going to be capped at 20 minutes, so that leaves a heck of a lot of frontcourt minutes up for grabs. Mason Plumlee is a lock for 30-34 minutes and could be an 18-10 guy. Considering how awful the Nets are and they’re apparent tank tactics, Cory Jefferson might be the next in line at power forward. Jerome Jordan could also play more center next to Mason Plumlee. I’d give Co-Jeff a look in 20-team leagues (I own him in my 30-team league, so I’m a little biased).
Kelly Olynyk is also going to miss the rest of the first half with his ankle sprain. Brandon Bass is going to put up numbers, but he might be traded. Tyler Zeller is also worth a look in most leagues. Olynyk can be dropped.
Hassan Whiteside did not play on Friday night after trying to warm up. He had a really bad sprain on Tuesday, but it would appear he’s not likely to be out much longer. The Heat are not going to play Chris Andersen more than minutes in the low 20s, so there is a chance for Whiteside. Plus, coach Erik Spoelstra doesn’t want to go small anymore. Whiteside should be owned in all leagues and he was putting up first-round fantasy value for the first two weeks of the season.
Injuries From Friday
Jose Calderon suffered a knee contusion and the sense is that he’ll miss time. He couldn’t put weight on his leg and had a limp leaving the locker room following the game. We’ll talk more about the Knicks in the recap, but Langston Galloway is the grab to make right now.
Dwight Howard had an ankle sprain on Friday and did not return. He didn’t leave the arena in a walking boot and it doesn’t sound serious. Although, there’s certainly a chance he won’t play on Sunday against the Lakers. Joey Dorsey would start, but the Rockets would also count on Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith a little more. The problem with adding Smith is that he’s more trouble than he’s worth in standard leagues. I’d leave him on the wire.
Elfrid Payton had some knee soreness from an awkward landing, but he sounds like he’s OK. Payton was very good in the loss, scoring nine points with 11 assists, three rebounds, one block and two steals. He’s still a much better in points leagues, but he could be a low-end standard guy.
C.J. Miles had another groin injury. He’s been unable to finish games like 80 times this season. It’s just too hard to own him and his 36.5 percent from the field this year should be a deal-breaker.
Let’s go over the main stories from the 11-game night:
Project Two-Pat
Coach Dwane Casey started Patrick Patterson in the second half over Amir Johnson during a 91-86 win at Philly. Patterson finished with 14 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two 3-pointers in 30 minutes. He’s been entrenched as a bench guy for most of his time in Toronto and his numbers as a starter aren’t even that great this season. In fact, in three starts he’s only averaged 9.3 points, 3.7 boards, 1.7 assists and 2.0 treys on 25.7 minutes per game. He might get a few more minutes, but Two-Pat can still be a low-end guy in standard leagues. If you want treys from the big spot, certainly give him a look. I do think he might actually start because the Raptors haven’t looked great on offense lately.
Amir Johnson moved to the bench and he’s having some trouble these days. His numbers translate to fantasy very well, but I would probably swap him out for Two-Pat with all things equal.
Kyle Lowry carried the Raptors on Friday with 17 points in the fourth quarter during a 91-86 win, finishing with 21 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals and three 3-pointers. He didn’t get much help in the starting lineup with DeMar DeRozan having another bad game. DeMar had just eight points with one assist and one steal.
He’s been struggling since his return, making just 39.3 percent from the field and he’s not getting to the line anymore. Here’s a look at his shot chart since his return:
He really, really needs to get to the rim more. When he’s at his best, that’s what he does and he’s at his worst when he’s settling like he is now. If you’re in a standard league, DeRozan probably won’t be a top-40 guy because of the lack of treys and sub-par efficiency.
The 76ers were pretty much as advertised. Robert Covington scored 18 points and he’s easily the best offensive weapon now that Tony Wroten is out for the season. He’s going to have a chance to be a top-50 player. K.J. McDaniels also shot the ball well for 14 points. He has a very high ceiling and just needs to make shots.
HaWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWks
The Hawks Twitter account is going to run out of characters soon. A 103-93 victory over the Thunder on Friday gave ATL 15 consecutive wins. They hold a 6.5 game lead over the Wizards for the top spot on the Eastern Conference standings. While they’re really the greatest overall team story this season, there are not a lot of fantasy implications.
Jeff Teague is killing his man off the dribble, which explains why he’s shooting 47.4 percent from the field this season. He’s a top-10 fantasy point guard. Paul Millsap can fill it up like few others with his output in steals, blocks and threes. Al Horford’s slump from two weeks ago is long gone. In fact, his averages over his last five are 17.2 points, 7.8 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.8 blocks on 69.8 percent from the field. I did a mid-season mock draft two weeks ago and stole him in the fourth round, so if you were able to buy low around that time, you’re golden. He’s likely going to be a top-25 player the rest of the way. Oh and Kyle Korver is off the charts from an efficiency standpoint.
There were also not many takeaways on the OKC side. The good news is that Dion Waiters had a low usage rate at 17.6 on Friday in his 25.8 minutes. That is his third consecutive game with a usage rate below 18. He was above 21 in the previous four and maybe OKC is realizing KD and Westbrook are better offensive options. Waiters isn’t the shiny new toy for Brooks anymore and his owners hopefully had low expectations.
Serge Ibaka had a decent game of 13 points, 10 rebounds, one assist, one steal and two blocks. He’s probably one of the best buy-low guys out there. Ibaka is extremely durable and guys don’t just forget how to block shots. He’s just on a very slow leaning curve next to Steven Adams and Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant combined for 43 points in somewhat ordinary lines. Westbrook is starting to come out of a slump and is settling or jumpers a bit less. They’ll be fine and just need to stay healthy.
Filler Bees
It was about 2.5 quarters of garbage time with the Hornets down 35 at half against the Cavs. Al Jefferson looked good with 22 points and 11 boards, so he’ll likely be let loose soon. Besides that, there’s not much else to discuss. Gerald Henderson should have never been owned in standard leagues with his low ceiling. Lance Stephenson is still going to have a tough time being a standard-league asset.
The Cavs did all their damage with 75 points at half. LeBron James had easy shots all night and he’s clearly “back” after a slow start. The Cavs do have a bad schedule in head-to-head leagues, so he’s a sell-high guy if you can get some other top-five guy. Kyrie Irving also had a minor hand injury, but he is fine. Irving had 18 points with four rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block and three 3-pointers. He’s been a pleasant surprise.
So the Cavs have a couple hot pickups. J.R. Smith made seven 3-pointers on Friday and he’s rolling. If you want some treys in your lineup, he’s basically a must-own guy. Timofey Mozgov also had another strong game with 14 points, 10 rebounds and one block. He has three double-doubles and he’s a sell-high player to me. Mozzy has a ton of cold spells in his career while his rebounding rate and usage rates were approaching career lows before the change of scenery.
It’s a Dry Heat
This was another game with no major fantasy implications. Dwyane Wade played through an illness and asked to come out late in the game, finishing with 13 points, four assists, two steals and six turnovers. It was just the ninth game of his career without a rebound, but he’ll be fine for Sunday in Chicago.
Luol Deng really stepped up on Friday with 23 points, five rebounds, three assists and three 3-pointers on 9-of-13 from the field. It was his first game back from an illness and he scored just eight points on Tuesday. Deng is shooting the ball well at 50 percent on the season, which is way up from what we’re accustomed to. He’s a quick look at his shooting this season (top) compared to last season (bottom) based on shots off the dribble:
He’s making his money on shots without a dribble. Usually, that’s a bit flukier, so Deng could see his production slip. He’s also hurt a lot, so selling high is probably the way to go once you get the chance.
Chris Andersen also played well with four points and 13 boards in 28 minutes. He won’t play more than 24 minutes while Hassan Whiteside is healthy, but he’s still going to have a chance to be a top 100-150 guy. Mario Chalmers needs a fire flower in the worst way right now. Or a star, but stars run out quickly. He can be cut in most leagues while we can expect Shabazz Napier to play more — low upside, though.
As mentioned above, C.J. Miles can’t stay healthy, so expect to see a slight uptick from guys like C.J. Watson and Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is not an option in standard leagues due to how he’s struggled for a few weeks now. Roy Hibbert also had another bad game, scoring four points for the second straight game. He also has a combined three boards in his last two. Hibbert might have another horrific close to his season again.
The Pacers were able to get George Hill back and he looked good with 13 points, two assists and one steal. He should be a mid-round fantasy guy, but he just needs to stay healthy. Go ahead and add him everywhere, but I’d probably drop him at the first sign of trouble.
If There’s a Will, There’s a Galloway
The Knicks won their third game in a row on Friday, scoring 113 points in the process against the Magic. Yes, these wins came against the Magic, 76ers and Anthony Davis-less Pelicans, but a win is a win is a win. Carmelo Anthony has been great and has scored at least 24 points in all four games since his return. Plus, he’s playing major minutes with at least 40 in each of his last two. Still, he’s a sell high player because it’s a matter of when not if he gets shut down later this season.
The biggest fantasy story here is Langston Galloway. The Knicks continue to use him as an option at point guard and he could start there now that Jose Calderon (knee) is expected to miss time. Regardless of where he starts, it’s clear Galloway is going to play. He’s putting up usable numbers over his last three, averaging 15.7 points, 6.7 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.0 treys. Galloway was also among the league leaders in the D-League for steals, so the ceiling is there. He should be added in most leagues right now. Maybe all of them.
Besides that, it’s a little tough to tell how Amare Stoudemire fits in. He did not play on Friday due to rest and he’ll play on Saturday. Jason Smith looks like he’s the best guy to own with three consecutive good games. Lance Thomas was very good down the stretch, but he’s likely to lose run with STAT back. I wouldn’t add Pablo Prigioni or Shane Larkin either.
Nikola Vucevic is rolling for the Magic. He put up 34 points, 18 boards, three assists, one block and one steal, which comes not he heels of a 26-point, 15-board game on Wednesday. He’s a double-double machine. Besides that and the aforementioned Elf injury, Tobias Harris was quiet and he’s likely going to start again. Victor Oladipo also struggled, but he’s been tremendous this year.
Bulldozer
Derrick Rose continues to play extremely well in his destruction of NBA guards. He scored 20 points with three rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block, one steal and three 3-pointers in Dallas on Friday. He’s suddenly become Kyle Korver over his last six games, making 56.1 percent from deep with averages of 24.0 points, 3.2 boards, 5.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 3.8 treys. If you own him, you owe it to yourself to try and sell high. There are too many potential problems and this is obviously a fluky run from deep.
Joakim Noah returned for 23 minutes of action, scoring six points with seven rebounds, one assist and two blocks. His minutes will rise soon, but he’s probably not going to be a top-60 guy the rest of the way. Plus, he’s hurt a ton. Taj Gibson played well in 33 minutes with 15 points, seven rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block. He’ll be trending down.
That brief buy-low in Jimmy Butler is closed. He had another nice game with 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three steals and two turnovers. Butler has been doing his damage off the dribble all season, which is usually a stronger indication that he’s for real. He is.
As for the Mavericks, it’s the same story. Rajon Rondo is almost a waste of a roster spot in standard leagues. He’s No. 206 in standard leagues over the past month on a per-game basis. We can pretty much rule him out as a top-100 player on the season. He’s No. 167 on the year. You probably can’t cut him and it’s best to just wait for him to have a good game or two, then try to unload him for anything you can.
Endangered Ryno
Ryan Anderson could miss time with his ankle issues, so it looks like it’ll be Dante Cunningham benefitting the most. He played 35 minutes with 14 points, five rebounds, one assist, two steals and one block. Cunningham isn’t much of a stat filler, so he’s only really worth a look in deep leagues. Maybe that’ll change if the Pelicans rule Anderson out for multiple games.
Additionally, Quincy Pondexter played more off the bench with four points in 29 minutes. You can ignore him in most leagues due to his low per-minute value. Anthony Davis also played 42 minutes and his fantasy owners are going to enjoy the ride with that amount of playing time. He had 21 points, 12 boards, two steals and one block in the win.
Eric Gordon also scored 20 points and he should have the ball a little more. He’s the best healthy shooter on the team and the team will need him out there to space the floor. He should be owned in all leagues right now and hopefully he doesn’t get hurt.
Nikola Pekovic played 21 minutes on Friday with 13 points, nine boards and two blocks. The Wolves won’t be unleashing him for much more than 24 minutes per game, but go ahead and give him a look while he’s healthy. To be clear, I’d be shocked to see him stay healthy. Gorgui Dieng will be a must-own player all season. He scored 14 points with 15 boards, three assists and one block.
Andrew Wiggins scored 13 points and is cooling off a tad. Even with Kevin Martin (wrist) coming back soon, the Wolves probably won’t stagnate they 2014 top pick’s growth. Expect him to keep rolling.
La-La Land
The Lakers are in trouble and it’s a new day. Jeremy Lin received his first DNP-CD since the day before Linsanity and it’s unclear what coach Byron Scott will do. Lin has been awful, so there’s little reason to hang on to him.
The big winner was Jordan Clarkson, who played 29 minutes with 11 points, three rebounds, four assists and one turnover. The Lakers were obsessed with him at summer league and praised him as a point guard. All that praise was for real and coach Scott said he was going to start Clarkson today regardless of the Kobe news. He’s worth a look in deep leagues, as long as you’re not setting the bar too high.
The other big winner is going to be Wayne Ellington. He’s a good bet to lead the starting unit in 3-pointers, so he’s worth a look in deep leagues, as well. You can expect to see a small bump in the output of Wes Johnson, Nick Young and Ryan Kelly.
The other big move is that Robert Sacre started. However, he wasn’t great with a seven-seven line, and Scott said he only started Sacre because Tarik Black was out. I wouldn’t adjust any values of LA bigs yet and Black might actually benefit the most.
The Spurs didn’t have much doing in the win. Kawhi Leonard is awesome and he’s done a magnificent job on the glass. He had 15 points, 14 boards, three assists, two steals and one 3-pointer in the victory.
Bassmasters
Brandon Bass stole the show in the starting lineup during a big win, scoring 17 points with nine rebounds, five assists, three steals and one block in 35 minutes. He tied his career-high in dimes again, which he also did on Thursday. “That’s what I do, man,” Bass said on Thursday. “I drop dimes.” The Celtics could be showcasing him in a trade, but he kind of has to be picked up after this one.
Tyler Zeller also stepped up with 11 points, six rebounds and one turnover in 23 minutes. Expect him to be better, too. Bass is the preferred grab, though.
Ty Lawson did not play due to personal reasons after being arrested early Friday morning for a DUI. He will likely play soon, so fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Jameer Nelson to duplicate his 23-point, seven-dime game. Unless you’re cutting dead weight, I’d probably leave him on the wire.
The other big news was Jusuf Nurkic struggling yet again. He didn’t start the second half and he appears to be in coach Brian Shaw’s doghouse. As awful as he’s been, his block output, rebounding percentage and usage rate are just too high to cut bait. I would be extremely patient with him. J.J. Hickson stepped up with 15 points and 14 boards, but he’s not someone I would grab in most leagues. He’s a must-grab in points leagues, though.
5 O’Clock Overshadowed
James Harden hit a game-winning shot at the buzzer to complete his line of 33 points, six rebounds, 10 assists, three steals, one block and three 3-pointers. He’s good and we’d be talking about him a lot more if not for Klay. He was overshadowed.
The other big news is the Dwight Howard injury. It’ll be Donatas Motiejunas backing up Joey Dorsey, but there’s not a big tweak in fantasy value. In fact, here’s a look at the lineups from the second half on Friday:
There’s no need to be too aggressive with the pickups here.
Goran Dragic didn’t play down the stretch because he picked up a tech. He finished with just two points and two dimes in 18 m minutes. The Dragon will be back to his old self soon, so try and buy low if his owner is freaking out.
Isaiah Thomas benefitted with 22 points, five rebounds, four assists and four 3-pointers. He’s hot over his last three, averaging 24.3 points, 3.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 3.7 treys on 56.3 percent from the field. It’s a nice chance to sell high here.
Klay Klay
Rudy Gay was ejected in the first half, so that allowed Quincy Miller to score 13 points with six boards, two steals, two blocks and one 3-pointer. Maybe the Kings give him run, but it won’t be much while Rudy is healthy. Derrick Williams also started, but it doesn’t really matter much. His usage will be low.
Everything is relative and that’s certainly true in basketball. Klay Thompson skewed the way we’ll use “on fire” or “unstoppable” for the rest of the season, and maybe ever. The 24-year-old guard scored an NBA-record 37 points in the third quarter during a 126-101 victory against the Kings in Oakland on Friday, finishing with a career-high 52 points with two rebounds, five assists, four steals, two blocks and 11 treys on 16-of-25 from the field and 9-of-10 from the line. Insane.
The third quarter was arguably one of the coolest 12 minutes of basketball in the history of the NBA. The Kings were actually tied with the Warriors at 58, but Klay’s first two points of the quarter gave the Warriors the lead and they never looked back. His 37 points were almost double the Kings scoring 22 points in that frame. Plus, the Nets scored just 37 points in the first half of Thursday’s loss to the Clippers. Here’s a glance at what his shot chart looked like on his 13-of-13 shooting:
That’s good for a 134.6 effective field goal percentage in the quarter. Even going 9-of-9 from deep is crazy by itself. In fact, if you consider Klay was making 44.4 percent from three this season before Friday, he had a 0.06 percent chance to make nine in a row. There are a ton of ways to describe it and none of them can compare to just watching it. You can watch all of his 13 field goal makes in this video. It’s worth your time and NBATV will definitely re-air it.
OK, so after wrapping our heads around how out of this world it was, what does it really mean for him the rest of the season? He was already in the midst of a breakout season and he’s doing a heck of a lot more than just knock down treys. Thompson is on pace for career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, triples, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Thompson’s usage rate is soaring at 27.4 this season, which crushes last season’s rate of 22.6. If we drafted today for a nine-category league, there’s really no way he should slide out of the top 10.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Saturday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on Saturday. Here’s the FanDuel link.
Notable Injuries Heading Into Friday Games
Friday was actually a really interesting day before Klay and it started with some bad news. Kobe Bryant is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a tear in his rotator cuff. This would be the third time in his last three seasons in which he was unable to finish the season. Two seasons ago he had an Achilles tear and last year he had a knee injury. We’ll talk more on this later when we recap the Lakers. You can cut Kobe in all re-draft fantasy leagues.
The other big story heading into the weekend is LaMarcus Aldridge set to miss the next 6-8 weeks due to surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb. Considering it’s a surgical procedure, he’s very unlikely to beat this prognosis. If you’re in a head-to-head weekly league and you’re not hurting in the standings, it’s not a bad idea to stash Aldridge. Of course, this is a decision you’re going to have to weigh on your own and take into account the non-basketball factors of your league.
The big question everyone wants an answer to is what are the Blazers going to do now? Nicolas Batum is also likely to miss time, so it’s going to get extremely wild in their rotation. In fact, here’s a look at the top 19 of the 21 lineups Stotts used on Thursday night:
Yeah, that’s not something most fantasy owners are going to want to mess with. The one thing that is interesting to me is that Victor Claver and Dorell Wright picked up a lot of run at small forward. That was something they usually do not do with Batum in the lineup. With that, Thomas Robinson should have more chances to play at power forward along with Meyers Leonard getting more run at the four/five. T-Rob can’t shoot free throws and I’d guess about 80 percent of his offense is going to come off O-boards. In fact, here’s a quick look at how often he doesn’t dribble before his shots:
Truck is actually solid on jumpers this year at 36.0 percent, so he should stick in the rotation until Nicolas Batum is out. That said, unless Batum is ruled out for multiple weeks — an unlikely scenario — fantasy owners will probably just want to avoid this situation from a pickup standpoint. Expect to see more Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews.
Kevin Martin is dealing with some swelling in his wrist and he’s up in the air for Sunday. It sounds like he’s on track to play, but the Wolves aren’t going to want to play him at less than 100 percent. They would probably like to trade him this season for a draft pick and they’re currently tanking with the worst record in the NBA. He’s still someone worth grabbing in just about all fantasy leagues. Expect Robbie Hummel to get more run again.
Ryan Anderson is out with bilateral ankle inflammation. That’s a very interesting diagnosis, especially with how the Pelicans diagnosed Jrue Holiday with ankle inflammation. To explain further, Anderson has swelling in both of his ankles. It’s possible he had two mild ankle sprains to cause the inflammation or it could be something else. The Pelicans usually keep us in the dark on stuff like this, so maybe Anderson misses time. We’ll discuss the Pelicans in the game recap below.
Mirza Teletovic is out for the season due to blood clotting in his lungs. Hopefully he can return next season. The Nets are likely going to deal Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett is also going to be capped at 20 minutes, so that leaves a heck of a lot of frontcourt minutes up for grabs. Mason Plumlee is a lock for 30-34 minutes and could be an 18-10 guy. Considering how awful the Nets are and they’re apparent tank tactics, Cory Jefferson might be the next in line at power forward. Jerome Jordan could also play more center next to Mason Plumlee. I’d give Co-Jeff a look in 20-team leagues (I own him in my 30-team league, so I’m a little biased).
Kelly Olynyk is also going to miss the rest of the first half with his ankle sprain. Brandon Bass is going to put up numbers, but he might be traded. Tyler Zeller is also worth a look in most leagues. Olynyk can be dropped.
Hassan Whiteside did not play on Friday night after trying to warm up. He had a really bad sprain on Tuesday, but it would appear he’s not likely to be out much longer. The Heat are not going to play Chris Andersen more than minutes in the low 20s, so there is a chance for Whiteside. Plus, coach Erik Spoelstra doesn’t want to go small anymore. Whiteside should be owned in all leagues and he was putting up first-round fantasy value for the first two weeks of the season.
Injuries From Friday
Jose Calderon suffered a knee contusion and the sense is that he’ll miss time. He couldn’t put weight on his leg and had a limp leaving the locker room following the game. We’ll talk more about the Knicks in the recap, but Langston Galloway is the grab to make right now.
Dwight Howard had an ankle sprain on Friday and did not return. He didn’t leave the arena in a walking boot and it doesn’t sound serious. Although, there’s certainly a chance he won’t play on Sunday against the Lakers. Joey Dorsey would start, but the Rockets would also count on Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith a little more. The problem with adding Smith is that he’s more trouble than he’s worth in standard leagues. I’d leave him on the wire.
Elfrid Payton had some knee soreness from an awkward landing, but he sounds like he’s OK. Payton was very good in the loss, scoring nine points with 11 assists, three rebounds, one block and two steals. He’s still a much better in points leagues, but he could be a low-end standard guy.
C.J. Miles had another groin injury. He’s been unable to finish games like 80 times this season. It’s just too hard to own him and his 36.5 percent from the field this year should be a deal-breaker.
Let’s go over the main stories from the 11-game night:
Project Two-Pat
Coach Dwane Casey started Patrick Patterson in the second half over Amir Johnson during a 91-86 win at Philly. Patterson finished with 14 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two 3-pointers in 30 minutes. He’s been entrenched as a bench guy for most of his time in Toronto and his numbers as a starter aren’t even that great this season. In fact, in three starts he’s only averaged 9.3 points, 3.7 boards, 1.7 assists and 2.0 treys on 25.7 minutes per game. He might get a few more minutes, but Two-Pat can still be a low-end guy in standard leagues. If you want treys from the big spot, certainly give him a look. I do think he might actually start because the Raptors haven’t looked great on offense lately.
Amir Johnson moved to the bench and he’s having some trouble these days. His numbers translate to fantasy very well, but I would probably swap him out for Two-Pat with all things equal.
Kyle Lowry carried the Raptors on Friday with 17 points in the fourth quarter during a 91-86 win, finishing with 21 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals and three 3-pointers. He didn’t get much help in the starting lineup with DeMar DeRozan having another bad game. DeMar had just eight points with one assist and one steal.
He’s been struggling since his return, making just 39.3 percent from the field and he’s not getting to the line anymore. Here’s a look at his shot chart since his return:
He really, really needs to get to the rim more. When he’s at his best, that’s what he does and he’s at his worst when he’s settling like he is now. If you’re in a standard league, DeRozan probably won’t be a top-40 guy because of the lack of treys and sub-par efficiency.
The 76ers were pretty much as advertised. Robert Covington scored 18 points and he’s easily the best offensive weapon now that Tony Wroten is out for the season. He’s going to have a chance to be a top-50 player. K.J. McDaniels also shot the ball well for 14 points. He has a very high ceiling and just needs to make shots.
HaWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWks
The Hawks Twitter account is going to run out of characters soon. A 103-93 victory over the Thunder on Friday gave ATL 15 consecutive wins. They hold a 6.5 game lead over the Wizards for the top spot on the Eastern Conference standings. While they’re really the greatest overall team story this season, there are not a lot of fantasy implications.
Jeff Teague is killing his man off the dribble, which explains why he’s shooting 47.4 percent from the field this season. He’s a top-10 fantasy point guard. Paul Millsap can fill it up like few others with his output in steals, blocks and threes. Al Horford’s slump from two weeks ago is long gone. In fact, his averages over his last five are 17.2 points, 7.8 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.8 blocks on 69.8 percent from the field. I did a mid-season mock draft two weeks ago and stole him in the fourth round, so if you were able to buy low around that time, you’re golden. He’s likely going to be a top-25 player the rest of the way. Oh and Kyle Korver is off the charts from an efficiency standpoint.
There were also not many takeaways on the OKC side. The good news is that Dion Waiters had a low usage rate at 17.6 on Friday in his 25.8 minutes. That is his third consecutive game with a usage rate below 18. He was above 21 in the previous four and maybe OKC is realizing KD and Westbrook are better offensive options. Waiters isn’t the shiny new toy for Brooks anymore and his owners hopefully had low expectations.
Serge Ibaka had a decent game of 13 points, 10 rebounds, one assist, one steal and two blocks. He’s probably one of the best buy-low guys out there. Ibaka is extremely durable and guys don’t just forget how to block shots. He’s just on a very slow leaning curve next to Steven Adams and Kevin Durant. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant combined for 43 points in somewhat ordinary lines. Westbrook is starting to come out of a slump and is settling or jumpers a bit less. They’ll be fine and just need to stay healthy.
Filler Bees
It was about 2.5 quarters of garbage time with the Hornets down 35 at half against the Cavs. Al Jefferson looked good with 22 points and 11 boards, so he’ll likely be let loose soon. Besides that, there’s not much else to discuss. Gerald Henderson should have never been owned in standard leagues with his low ceiling. Lance Stephenson is still going to have a tough time being a standard-league asset.
The Cavs did all their damage with 75 points at half. LeBron James had easy shots all night and he’s clearly “back” after a slow start. The Cavs do have a bad schedule in head-to-head leagues, so he’s a sell-high guy if you can get some other top-five guy. Kyrie Irving also had a minor hand injury, but he is fine. Irving had 18 points with four rebounds, two assists, one steal, one block and three 3-pointers. He’s been a pleasant surprise.
So the Cavs have a couple hot pickups. J.R. Smith made seven 3-pointers on Friday and he’s rolling. If you want some treys in your lineup, he’s basically a must-own guy. Timofey Mozgov also had another strong game with 14 points, 10 rebounds and one block. He has three double-doubles and he’s a sell-high player to me. Mozzy has a ton of cold spells in his career while his rebounding rate and usage rates were approaching career lows before the change of scenery.
It’s a Dry Heat
This was another game with no major fantasy implications. Dwyane Wade played through an illness and asked to come out late in the game, finishing with 13 points, four assists, two steals and six turnovers. It was just the ninth game of his career without a rebound, but he’ll be fine for Sunday in Chicago.
Luol Deng really stepped up on Friday with 23 points, five rebounds, three assists and three 3-pointers on 9-of-13 from the field. It was his first game back from an illness and he scored just eight points on Tuesday. Deng is shooting the ball well at 50 percent on the season, which is way up from what we’re accustomed to. He’s a quick look at his shooting this season (top) compared to last season (bottom) based on shots off the dribble:
He’s making his money on shots without a dribble. Usually, that’s a bit flukier, so Deng could see his production slip. He’s also hurt a lot, so selling high is probably the way to go once you get the chance.
Chris Andersen also played well with four points and 13 boards in 28 minutes. He won’t play more than 24 minutes while Hassan Whiteside is healthy, but he’s still going to have a chance to be a top 100-150 guy. Mario Chalmers needs a fire flower in the worst way right now. Or a star, but stars run out quickly. He can be cut in most leagues while we can expect Shabazz Napier to play more — low upside, though.
As mentioned above, C.J. Miles can’t stay healthy, so expect to see a slight uptick from guys like C.J. Watson and Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is not an option in standard leagues due to how he’s struggled for a few weeks now. Roy Hibbert also had another bad game, scoring four points for the second straight game. He also has a combined three boards in his last two. Hibbert might have another horrific close to his season again.
The Pacers were able to get George Hill back and he looked good with 13 points, two assists and one steal. He should be a mid-round fantasy guy, but he just needs to stay healthy. Go ahead and add him everywhere, but I’d probably drop him at the first sign of trouble.
If There’s a Will, There’s a Galloway
The Knicks won their third game in a row on Friday, scoring 113 points in the process against the Magic. Yes, these wins came against the Magic, 76ers and Anthony Davis-less Pelicans, but a win is a win is a win. Carmelo Anthony has been great and has scored at least 24 points in all four games since his return. Plus, he’s playing major minutes with at least 40 in each of his last two. Still, he’s a sell high player because it’s a matter of when not if he gets shut down later this season.
The biggest fantasy story here is Langston Galloway. The Knicks continue to use him as an option at point guard and he could start there now that Jose Calderon (knee) is expected to miss time. Regardless of where he starts, it’s clear Galloway is going to play. He’s putting up usable numbers over his last three, averaging 15.7 points, 6.7 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.0 treys. Galloway was also among the league leaders in the D-League for steals, so the ceiling is there. He should be added in most leagues right now. Maybe all of them.
Besides that, it’s a little tough to tell how Amare Stoudemire fits in. He did not play on Friday due to rest and he’ll play on Saturday. Jason Smith looks like he’s the best guy to own with three consecutive good games. Lance Thomas was very good down the stretch, but he’s likely to lose run with STAT back. I wouldn’t add Pablo Prigioni or Shane Larkin either.
Nikola Vucevic is rolling for the Magic. He put up 34 points, 18 boards, three assists, one block and one steal, which comes not he heels of a 26-point, 15-board game on Wednesday. He’s a double-double machine. Besides that and the aforementioned Elf injury, Tobias Harris was quiet and he’s likely going to start again. Victor Oladipo also struggled, but he’s been tremendous this year.
Bulldozer
Derrick Rose continues to play extremely well in his destruction of NBA guards. He scored 20 points with three rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block, one steal and three 3-pointers in Dallas on Friday. He’s suddenly become Kyle Korver over his last six games, making 56.1 percent from deep with averages of 24.0 points, 3.2 boards, 5.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 3.8 treys. If you own him, you owe it to yourself to try and sell high. There are too many potential problems and this is obviously a fluky run from deep.
Joakim Noah returned for 23 minutes of action, scoring six points with seven rebounds, one assist and two blocks. His minutes will rise soon, but he’s probably not going to be a top-60 guy the rest of the way. Plus, he’s hurt a ton. Taj Gibson played well in 33 minutes with 15 points, seven rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block. He’ll be trending down.
That brief buy-low in Jimmy Butler is closed. He had another nice game with 20 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three steals and two turnovers. Butler has been doing his damage off the dribble all season, which is usually a stronger indication that he’s for real. He is.
As for the Mavericks, it’s the same story. Rajon Rondo is almost a waste of a roster spot in standard leagues. He’s No. 206 in standard leagues over the past month on a per-game basis. We can pretty much rule him out as a top-100 player on the season. He’s No. 167 on the year. You probably can’t cut him and it’s best to just wait for him to have a good game or two, then try to unload him for anything you can.
Endangered Ryno
Ryan Anderson could miss time with his ankle issues, so it looks like it’ll be Dante Cunningham benefitting the most. He played 35 minutes with 14 points, five rebounds, one assist, two steals and one block. Cunningham isn’t much of a stat filler, so he’s only really worth a look in deep leagues. Maybe that’ll change if the Pelicans rule Anderson out for multiple games.
Additionally, Quincy Pondexter played more off the bench with four points in 29 minutes. You can ignore him in most leagues due to his low per-minute value. Anthony Davis also played 42 minutes and his fantasy owners are going to enjoy the ride with that amount of playing time. He had 21 points, 12 boards, two steals and one block in the win.
Eric Gordon also scored 20 points and he should have the ball a little more. He’s the best healthy shooter on the team and the team will need him out there to space the floor. He should be owned in all leagues right now and hopefully he doesn’t get hurt.
Nikola Pekovic played 21 minutes on Friday with 13 points, nine boards and two blocks. The Wolves won’t be unleashing him for much more than 24 minutes per game, but go ahead and give him a look while he’s healthy. To be clear, I’d be shocked to see him stay healthy. Gorgui Dieng will be a must-own player all season. He scored 14 points with 15 boards, three assists and one block.
Andrew Wiggins scored 13 points and is cooling off a tad. Even with Kevin Martin (wrist) coming back soon, the Wolves probably won’t stagnate they 2014 top pick’s growth. Expect him to keep rolling.
La-La Land
The Lakers are in trouble and it’s a new day. Jeremy Lin received his first DNP-CD since the day before Linsanity and it’s unclear what coach Byron Scott will do. Lin has been awful, so there’s little reason to hang on to him.
The big winner was Jordan Clarkson, who played 29 minutes with 11 points, three rebounds, four assists and one turnover. The Lakers were obsessed with him at summer league and praised him as a point guard. All that praise was for real and coach Scott said he was going to start Clarkson today regardless of the Kobe news. He’s worth a look in deep leagues, as long as you’re not setting the bar too high.
The other big winner is going to be Wayne Ellington. He’s a good bet to lead the starting unit in 3-pointers, so he’s worth a look in deep leagues, as well. You can expect to see a small bump in the output of Wes Johnson, Nick Young and Ryan Kelly.
The other big move is that Robert Sacre started. However, he wasn’t great with a seven-seven line, and Scott said he only started Sacre because Tarik Black was out. I wouldn’t adjust any values of LA bigs yet and Black might actually benefit the most.
The Spurs didn’t have much doing in the win. Kawhi Leonard is awesome and he’s done a magnificent job on the glass. He had 15 points, 14 boards, three assists, two steals and one 3-pointer in the victory.
Bassmasters
Brandon Bass stole the show in the starting lineup during a big win, scoring 17 points with nine rebounds, five assists, three steals and one block in 35 minutes. He tied his career-high in dimes again, which he also did on Thursday. “That’s what I do, man,” Bass said on Thursday. “I drop dimes.” The Celtics could be showcasing him in a trade, but he kind of has to be picked up after this one.
Tyler Zeller also stepped up with 11 points, six rebounds and one turnover in 23 minutes. Expect him to be better, too. Bass is the preferred grab, though.
Ty Lawson did not play due to personal reasons after being arrested early Friday morning for a DUI. He will likely play soon, so fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Jameer Nelson to duplicate his 23-point, seven-dime game. Unless you’re cutting dead weight, I’d probably leave him on the wire.
The other big news was Jusuf Nurkic struggling yet again. He didn’t start the second half and he appears to be in coach Brian Shaw’s doghouse. As awful as he’s been, his block output, rebounding percentage and usage rate are just too high to cut bait. I would be extremely patient with him. J.J. Hickson stepped up with 15 points and 14 boards, but he’s not someone I would grab in most leagues. He’s a must-grab in points leagues, though.
5 O’Clock Overshadowed
James Harden hit a game-winning shot at the buzzer to complete his line of 33 points, six rebounds, 10 assists, three steals, one block and three 3-pointers. He’s good and we’d be talking about him a lot more if not for Klay. He was overshadowed.
The other big news is the Dwight Howard injury. It’ll be Donatas Motiejunas backing up Joey Dorsey, but there’s not a big tweak in fantasy value. In fact, here’s a look at the lineups from the second half on Friday:
There’s no need to be too aggressive with the pickups here.
Goran Dragic didn’t play down the stretch because he picked up a tech. He finished with just two points and two dimes in 18 m minutes. The Dragon will be back to his old self soon, so try and buy low if his owner is freaking out.
Isaiah Thomas benefitted with 22 points, five rebounds, four assists and four 3-pointers. He’s hot over his last three, averaging 24.3 points, 3.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 3.7 treys on 56.3 percent from the field. It’s a nice chance to sell high here.
Klay Klay
Rudy Gay was ejected in the first half, so that allowed Quincy Miller to score 13 points with six boards, two steals, two blocks and one 3-pointer. Maybe the Kings give him run, but it won’t be much while Rudy is healthy. Derrick Williams also started, but it doesn’t really matter much. His usage will be low.
Recommended article: Chomsky: We Are All – Fill in the Blank.
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