NFL Pick$ Against The Spread That Don’t Suck: Conference Championship Edition – SportsGrid
Every week, I pick NFL games against the spread and track my results. Last year went surprisingly well. This year went semi-surprisingly AWFUL. This is the divisional round of the playoffs.
I’m currently writing this next to the cleanest sewer in the East Village, next to a lovely former Enron employee. One bad year has relegated me to the 1% of the homeless.
IMPORTANT: I am not an “expert,” but my analysis is still worth reading. I’m not an expert because nobody is an expert, and if someone calls himself an expert, he’s probably not an expert.
The point of this column is to give a unique angle of analysis — the bettor’s perspective — the psychology and resources of which are far superior to the brain-dead “the popular team should win because they should” that you see from “experts” on ESPN and elsewhere, who don’t even acknowledge point spreads.
There is a solid chance these picks will lose money, so I’m not recommending that you bet on them blindly. They’re merely for another perspective. Feel free to fade away.
Please don’t hesitate to call me a moron on Twitter if inspiration strikes. Now would be a good time.
NOTE: DVOA ranks not updated for playoff games.
(ALSO: Want to learn everything there is to know about Smart Sports Betting? The basics, interpreting the best advanced NFL stats, adopting the psychology of winning bettors and much more? My book/e-book is out, and if it guides you to place one smart bet or eliminate one stupid bet, it has paid for itself many times over. Get a complete lesson in NFL betting HERE.)
Seattle Seahawks* (-7) over Green Bay Packers
Overall: Seahawks (1st), Packers (3rd)
Pass Offense: Seahawks (10th), Packers (2nd)
Pass Defense: Seahawks (3rd), Packers (11th)
Rush Offense: Seahawks (1st), Packers (6th)
Rush Defense: Seahawks (2nd), Packers (24th)
For the first half of last week’s Dallas-Green Bay game, the narrative was “Aaron Rodgers can’t move,” they’re screwed. Then Rodgers went off in the second half and the Packers won. He clearly was limited in his ability to escape the pocket, but he was also clearly still very good.
So how has he progressed since? Let’s check the trustworthy news.
Tuesday: “no worse than it was before… but it’s not any better, either.” From the same article: “Yeah, it’s good.” And, finally, “it’s worse than when I started the game but it’s doing OK.”
Then, Wednesday, the same website leads with “Rodgers has said his calf injury is ‘worse’ than it was entering the divisional round.”
Same news, different spin. Solid trolling. Basically, it seems like he’ll be similarly limited, mobility-wise. But who knows? And a lot can change before Sunday.
I’m analyzing this game from an “Aaron Rodgers is at least slightly limited” standpoint. And I have this weird feeling Rodgers might have an impact on the game.
We know Seattle crushed Green Bay Week 1. We know Seattle is dominant at home, and Green Bay is mediocre on the road. Hence such a steep spread between two fairly-even teams. Plus the calf thing.
Both teams protect the ball exceptionally well, and, believe it or not, they’re tied in takeaways per game (1.6). Narratives and reputations, be damned.
There’s also a lot of talk about how Seattle will “eat Rodgers alive,” but the Seahawks are 14th in adjusted sack rate. They’re not a bad pass-rush team, by any means, but their skill is probably exaggerated.
Green Bay has the lowest punt ratio in the league. They’re tops in many offensive categories. But Seattle isn’t far behind, and if you filter to Green Bay away/Seattle home, Seattle gets a slight edge, even on offense. They averaged 5.2 yards per carry this year, and they’re playing a shitty run defense. Marshawn Lynch ran for 6.3 yards per carry inside the tackles Week 1. Aaron Rodgers sucked and was sacked three times.
So if they have the better offense and defense in this matchup… hmmm….
But, here’s a key Seattle weakness: They score TDs on just 50.79% of red-zone appearances (21st). Worse than all non-Carolina/Arizona playoff participants. That could be big with a full-TD spread in play.
The Packers really haven’t been impressive on the road. At all. Rodgers sucked in Seattle. Sucked in Detroit. Great in Chicago. Good in Miami. Meh in New Orleans, in a loss. Meh in Minnesota in a close win. Horrid in Buffalo. Good in Tampa.
I don’t really know how to evaluate Rodgers, but I’d be leaning towards Seattle even if he were 100% healthy, so I guess that’s my answer.
BET: Seahawks -7 (-110), $110 to win $100
New England Patriots (-6.5)* over Indianapolis Colts
Overall: Patriots (4th), Colts (12th)
Pass Offense: Patriots (5th), Colts (13th)
Pass Defense: Patriots (12th), Colts (10th)
Rush Offense: Patriots (14th), Colts (19th)
Rush Defense: Patriots (14th), Colts (27th)
Indy is clearly the worst team left in the playoffs. They’ve been impressive in two playoff wins, but how much credit do you deserve for stopping Road Andy Dalton without AJ Green, and Peyton Manning with a torn quad and severe testicular degradation?
Indy does have the yards per play edge, for whatever that’s worth. Much of the reason New England was so much better than Indy this year was turnover margin.
Patriots: 2nd (+0.8 per game).
Colts: 24th (-0.3).
They were tied in takeaways (1.6), so the difference was giveaways. New England was 4th in INT rate, Indy 16th. Most importantly, though, New England had the second-fewest fumbles per game (.9). Indy, the 2nd-most (1.8).
Andy Makeyourownfuckingluck fumbled more than any player in the NFL: 13 fumbles. Just six for Brady. For comparison, the Buttfumbler fumbled 14 times in 2012.
You know what the Patriots did in big matchups. Annihilated Cincy, then considered the best team in the NFL. Same with Denver. And, of course, dominated in Indy. At home vs. Detroit. Played damn well in a loss in Green Bay.
Indy’s defense was surprisingly solid in the regular season, and has stepped it up in the playoffs. But again, are we really that impressed?
I was a bit surprised when this moved from -7 to -6.5. Given my poor record this year, that’s probably not a promising sign. But I liked the Pats slightly before that, so I can’t go against them now. And I’m a Jets fan, so at least you know I’m not biased. Maybe just dumb.
BET: Patriots -6.5 (-110), $110 to win $100
(AGAIN: If you want to bet sports smartly, you should check out my complete lesson in NFL and sports betting HERE. All the cool kids like learning all of the things for cheap.)
Total Regular Season: 52-56 (.481) (-$1,446.26)
Hypothetical Supercontest Picks: 35-29 (.547)
Last Week: 0-3 (-$286)
Recommended article: Chomsky: We Are All – Fill in the Blank.
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