NFL against the spread picks: Will a favorite fall? – Yahoo Sports (blog)
History tells us that at least one of the four home teams will fall this weekend. However, it’s hard to pick out which one. Or two. Or more.
The collective strength of the four top seeds in the divisional round is rare. The last time there were four favorites of at least 6 points or more in this round, as is the case this week, was 2007 according to the database of OddsShark.com. That year three of the four favorites didn’t cover and two lost outright. Indianapolis lost to San Diego and Dallas lost to the Giants.
On the surface you’d pick all four favorites to win straight up, but it’s unlikely that happens. And picking the games with the spreads this week is really tough.
Let’s take a look at divisional round, with the spreads from the Yahoo Pro Football Pick ’em, as usual:
Baltimore Ravens (+7) over New England Patriots
This is the perfect example of how tough this weekend’s games are to call. I think the Patriots win. They’re good, deep and balanced. Bill Belichick is 7-1 in the divisional round after a bye. The Patriots, not counting a Week 17 game that meant nothing for them, are 10-1 in their last 11. The Ravens were 1-6 against winning teams in the regular season, with the lone win coming in Week 2.
But some favorite is going down this weekend, or at least not covering.
The Ravens looked very strong last week, and that seems to be their M.O. Turn it on in the playoffs. They’ve played New England tough before. I can’t tell you that football-wise I believe the Ravens win straight up. But I’m forcing myself to pick some underdogs. The Ravens are as good as any.
Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks have won six in a row, all by double digits. Now they’re rested, at home and ready to make a run for a second straight Super Bowl title.
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Recently in this round, underdogs getting this many points have mostly covered. OddsShark.com said since Jan. 15, 2006 underdogs of 8 or more points in the divisional round are 10-3 against the spread. But I don’t know how the Panthers offense scores enough to cover. Seattle’s points allowed over its winning streak: 3, 3, 14, 7, 6, 6. It’s not the 1976 Steelers’ run of shutouts, but it’s really impressive. The Panthers’ defense is good too, and have played the Seahawks well recently. Their linebackers have the speed to bother some of the things the Seahawks like to do. But those games were in Carolina. This is in Seattle, where the Seahawks have a great home-field advantage.
According to ESPN, there have been six teams with a record or .500 or worse since 1970 to win in the wild-card round, and the first five all lost, and by an average of 20 points. I don’t think the Panthers have a realistic shot to win, so it’s tough to take them even getting a lot of points.
Dallas Cowboys (+6) over Green Bay Packers
This is one of the tougher lines of the season. I’ll take the Cowboys because they can run the ball and this is a really good team. Again, they’re 13-2 in games in which Tony Romo hasn’t missed time with injury. That’s impressive. They can run the ball and keep it close.
Yet, would it surprise anyone if the Packers blew this one open? They’re amazing at home, particularly Aaron Rodgers. They’re 8-0 at home and only one game was decided by less than 6 points, and that was against New England.
Still, Rodgers’ calf injury is a bit of a mystery, the Cowboys are a good team and some favorites are not covering. But, ask me in an hour and I might have a different answer. It’s a really hard game to get a read on.
Denver Broncos (-7) over Indianapolis Colts
I can’t take the underdog here. The matchup is too good for the favorite.
We know the Colts are a one-dimensional offense. The Broncos have the cornerbacks to limit the Colts’ receivers. The crowd noise won’t help Indianapolis protect Andrew Luck against pass rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
The Broncos aren’t the same explosive offense they were last season, or even in the first half of this season. But they’re still capable of hitting a few big plays and grinding out the game on the ground. And a week off to get healthier can’t hurt.
In another day down the road, in another place, the Colts would have a much better chance. Luck is great, but I don’t think he can win this by himself. Or cover the spread either.
Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 129-126-3
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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