NFL Pick$ Against The Spread That Don’t Suck: Playoffs — Divisional Round – SportsGrid
Every week, I pick NFL games against the spread and track my results. Last year went surprisingly well. This year went semi-surprisingly AWFUL. This is the divisional round of the playoffs.
I’m currently writing this next to the cleanest sewer in the East Village, next to a lovely former Enron employee. One bad year has relegated me to the 1% of the homeless.
IMPORTANT: I am not an “expert,” but my analysis is still worth reading. I’m not an expert because nobody is an expert, and if someone calls himself an expert, he’s probably not an expert.
The point of this column is to give a unique angle of analysis — the bettor’s perspective — the psychology and resources of which are far superior to the brain-dead “the popular team should win because they should” that you see from “experts” on ESPN and elsewhere, who don’t even acknowledge point spreads.
There is a solid chance these picks will lose money, so I’m not recommending that you bet on them blindly. But I do recommend that you read for a new perspective. And plenty of stupid jokes. Doesn’t Ben Roethlisberger look like Will Ferrell if he ate nothing but KFC for a month? (It’s funny because Roethlisberger is the athlete… zing!)
Please don’t hesitate to call me a moron on Twitter if inspiration strikes. Now would be a good time.
(NOTE: All offensive and defensive ranks are given not by traditional stats, but DVOA. You can find complete rankings HERE and an explanation of it HERE. Briefly explained: It’s the best widely-available stat to rank offensive and defensive performance, because it adjusts for game context and strength of schedule.)
(ALSO: Want to learn everything there is to know about Smart Sports Betting? The basics, interpreting the best advanced NFL stats, adopting the psychology of winning bettors and much more? My book/e-book is out, and if it guides you to place one smart bet or eliminate one stupid bet, it has paid for itself many times over. Get a complete lesson in NFL betting HERE.)
New England Patriots* (-6.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Overall: Patriots (4th), Ravens (5th)
Pass Offense: Patriots (5th), Ravens (6th)
Pass Defense: Patriots (12th), Ravens (15th)
Rush Offense: Patriots (14th), Ravens (18th)
Rush Defense: Patriots (14th), Ravens (5th)
Neil Greenberg summed this up as well as anyone, at the Washington Post.
The Ravens have one massive weakness: their Jimmy Smithless secondary. They can and will be beat deep. They can mask that, though, with their near-league-best pass-rush (5th in adjusted sack rate). But the fact that they’re just 15th in pass defense despite that awesome pass rush and a decent start to the season before the injuries shows just how weak they are.
Greenberg threw in a graph of Brady’s passer rating under pressure, and it’s bad. Well over 100, vs. below 50. Passer rating isn’t a great stat, but a discrepancy like that doesn’t lie. It seems pretty clear that the Ravens’ pass rush vs. Brady and the OL is the crucial matchup here.
New England has the second-lowest sack rate allowed on offense. That’s good. But that’s not a direct measure for pass protection – hurries aren’t included.
Brady had just four games with a QBR below 50 this year. They came against the Dolphins, Jets, Chiefs and Bills (in a short effort). Those are four of the best pass-rushes in the NFL.
…then again, he was solid in the other matchups vs. those division rivals, and his only non-excellent home performance all year was that Week 17 Bills nonevent, and some Week 3 mediocrity in a win vs. Oakland. Not terribly troubling.
I definitely think the matchup favors New England, but these teams are pretty damn even by all metrics. Yards per play, red zone efficiency… all pretty similar.
By the numbers, I’d take Baltimore. But by the fact that Baltimore’s only impressive performances were blowing out Pittsburgh back in Week 2 and winning in New Orleans (which wasn’t special this year)… well, I understand the -6.5 mark. New England beat the best, and blew them out. If you like them, winning by seven hasn’t been an issue this year (11 of their 12 wins came by 7+).
I’m not especially confident in this pick, so I do not suggest you follow me. Still, I’m taking New England.
BET: Patriots -6.5 (-114), $114 to win $100
Seattle Seahawks* (-10.5) over Carolina Panthers
Overall: Seahawks (1st), Panthers (25th)
Pass Offense: Seahawks (10th), Panthers (23rd)
Pass Defense: Seahawks (3rd), Panthers (9th)
Rush Offense: Seahawks (1st), Panthers (17th)
Rush Defense: Seahawks (2nd), Panthers (22nd)
Carolina is one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory, and their biggest weapon, Cam Newton, has been banged up all year. He was in a car accident approximately seven minutes ago.
They had little trouble with Arizona last week, but Newton and the offense were mediocre at best (admittedly in a tough matchup). They had little trouble because they were facing possibly the worst third-string quarterback in history, a man coached by and defeated by Brady Hoke. Allowing 1.7 yards per play is insane, and 78 yards allowed was the fewest ever allowed in an NFL game.
To be fair, though – Carolina’s defense began the year as a joke, but if you include last week’s game in their Weighted DVOA mark, they move all the way up to third overall. This is a defense that had potential entering the year, and recently, they’ve had some great performances. Most in easy matchups, but they also allowed just three points in Atlanta and 10 in New Orleans. That’s unheard of. They might be legit.
The Seahawks are vastly better in every category, and Marshawn Lynch has a solid matchup vs. a middling run defense. 10.5 points makes perfect sense to me.
If I had to make a pick, I guess I’d go with the under. But I’m not taking it at 39.5. If it rises, sure, maybe.
Green Bay Packers* (-6) over Dallas Cowboys
Overall: Packers (3rd), Cowboys (6th)
Pass Offense: Packers (2nd), Cowboys (4th)
Pass Defense: Packers (11th), Cowboys (22nd)
Rush Offense: Packers (6th), Cowboys (3rd)
Rush Defense: Packers (24th), Cowboys (23rd)
I update this every time the Packers are at home: Aaron Rodgers has won 19 straight home games, 16 by 7+ points. The Cowboys are almost on the Packers’ level on offense, and if they’re smart, they’ll pound Murray and try to slow this game down. They probably can’t stop Green Bay… but there’s a good chance Green Bay can’t stop Dallas either.
I think the line makes sense, but I certainly would pick the Packers if forced, because of that stat above. They’re not invincible and even strong trends like that don’t mean much (they didn’t play top teams in most of those 19 games), but that’s where I’d side. (They did almost lose to the Jets at home early this year.)
The over 52.5 seems low given these teams’ styles and talent… but it’s supposed to be cold as all hell in Green Bay. That, plus the likelihood of heavy doses of Murray, and a pointsgasm could be less likely than you think.
I hate to cop out of making a pick, so I will go with Green Bay here. This is not a strong endorsement. I will say, though, that Dallas didn’t have a great defensive season, and they played just two top-10 offenses all year (Seattle and New Orleans). I trust both offenses and neither defense, despite the Packers’ decent DVOA marks.
BET: Packers -6 (-110), $55 to win $50
Denver Broncos* (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Overall: Broncos (2nd), Colts (12th)
Pass Offense: Broncos (32nd), Colts (13th)
Pass Defense: Broncos (3rd), Colts (10th)
Rush Offense: Broncos (22th), Colts (27th )
Rush Defense: Broncos (7th), Colts (19th)
The Colts are pretty mediocre for an 11-5 squad, and they got a Bengals team missing AJ Green. For all of the Andrew Luck fellating, his pass offense ranked 13th. For all the Peyton bashing, his pass offense finished third.
Still, Andrew Luck stepped it up vs. a top secondary last week. He was impressive.
I think Denver is vastly superior, and that there’s value on -6.5. I would be all over this, but Manning doesn’t look right lately. He’s probably hurt or dying of , and he scares me.
I do like Denver, so I’ll throw some stats at you. The Broncos have been uncharacteristically struggling in the red zone the latter half of the year, yet they’re still at an awesome 62.9% for the year. Indy gives up a horrid 66.67% in the red zone.
Denver gains 1.3 more yards per play than it allows, per game, but Indy’s mark is just .5.
Again, I don’t feel strongly here. But I’m not copping out with just four games on the board.
BET: Broncos -6.5 (-117), $117 to win $100
(AGAIN: If you want to bet sports smartly, you should check out my complete lesson in NFL and sports betting HERE. All the cool kids like learning all of the things for cheap.)
Week 17: 3-2 (+$521)
Total Regular Season: 52-56 (.481) (-$1,446.26)
Hypothetical Supercontest Picks: 35-29 (.547)
Playoff Record: 0-0 (+$0)
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