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NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Cowboys over Packers, Patriots win – CBSSports.com

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NFL Divisional Playoff Picks: Cowboys over Packers, Patriots win – CBSSports.com

The headline above says something about divisional playoff picks, but I have some bad news, you’re not getting those yet because we need to talk about Wild Card Weekend first.

If you watched the Cowboys–Lions game on Sunday — and I’m guessing you did because 42.3 million people watched it — you may have noticed that the officiating crew was making up pass interference rules in the fourth quarter. Or were they?

Was that perfect coverage Cowboys linebacker Anthony Hitchens had on Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew? Did Pete Morelli and his crew actually get the call right?

To try and figure out if Morelli’s crew was right or wrong, I made a list of everyone who thought the no-call was right and everyone who thought the no-call was wrong.

Lists help me decide things.

Here’s a list of the people who thought Hitchens should have been penalized:

The NFL VP of officiating (who would’ve called holding).

The former NFL VP officiating.

The guy who wrote Game of Thrones.

Everyone who lives in Detroit.

Everyone who doesn’t live in Detroit.

Most of the 42.3 million people who watched the game.

People who didn’t watch the game, but saw highlights of the play.

Larry King.

Cowboys safety Barry Church, whose team benefitted from the no call.

And probably most importantly, Brandon Pettigrew thought it was a penalty.

Here’s a list of the people who didn’t think it was a penalty

Jerry Jones

LeBron James

Everyone in Dallas

This Dog

Now if you’re wondering which list I would be on, the answer is neither.

I’m on the “I owe Pete Morelli a bottle of wine, a Target gift card and a fruit basket because his non-call saved the weekend” list.

Think about it, until the second half of the Lions-Cowboys game happened, we were literally on the brink of the worst Wild Card Weekend in recent memory.

First we had to sit through four quarters of Ryan Lindley throwing footballs in a rainstorm, which you could probably argue is a metaphor for his career.

Once the Cardinals–Panthers game was over, we moved on to the Baltimore-Pittsburgh game where we had to watch the Steelers offense try and function without Le’Veon Bell, which was basically the same as watching Ryan Lindley throw footballs into a rainstorm.

I’m not even going to bring up what happened in the early game on Sunday. I’m just going to point out that Lindley has as many career postseason touchdown passes as Andy Dalton. The good thing about Dalton being in the playoffs though is that the storyline basically writes itself.

Yea, so, that’s how bad Wild Card Weekend was — until Pete Morelli’s crew decided to spice things up.

What makes the non-call even better is that Morelli’s head linesman was positioned 45 feet away from Hitchens and was still able to talk Morelli into picking up the flag.

That’s right, a ref 45 feet away from the play made the ultimate decision on the call. I’ll give you a second to go throw up somewhere Lions fans.

Anyway, if you disagree with my divisional round playoff picks below, you can let me know on Twitter. If Twitter’s not your thing, you can let me know in the comment section. If comment sections aren’t your thing either — you know what, it doesn’t even matter if you hate my picks because my plan this week is to change my picks at the last second without explanation.

No, I’m kidding, I’m not the refs in the Cowboys-Lions game.

Let’s get to the picks.

Actually, before we get to my picks, take a second and check out the playoff picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. Their picks are probably all wrong though, so let’s get to my picks. I take that back, you may want to click that link first and check to see what teams Ryan Wilson picked to win this week.

Wilson is basically the Joe Flacco of picks. After a mediocre regular season, Wilson cleaned up in the Wild Card round and went 4-0 with his picks. Will Brinson went 4-0 against the spread. You really should click over.

How’d I do in the Wild Card round? You’ll find out at the bottom.

Let’s get to this week’s picks.

Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Saturday, Jan. 10

No. 6 Baltimore (11-6) at No. 1 New England (12-4), 4:35 p.m. ET (NBC): Bill Belichick would never admit that there’s a team he doesn’t want to see in the playoffs, but you have to think he’s getting kind of tired of seeing the Ravens.

Saturday’s game will mark the fourth time in six years that Baltimore and New England have met in the playoffs and things haven’t gone so well for the Patriots, who are 1-2 against the Ravens.

The only New England win came in 2011, when Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field that would have sent the game to overtime. That’s how close Baltimore is to being 3-0 against the Patriots.

This year’s Ravens have something in common with those Baltimore teams of playoff past: They have a multifaceted offense that New England could struggle to stop.

If Joe Flacco has his deep ball going — and it’s the playoffs, so there’s a 95 percent chance he will — then the Ravens have a puncher’s chance. Even if Flacco struggles — it’s the playoffs, so there’s a 95 percent chance he won’t — the Ravens still have a ground game that can keep things close.

That being said, the Patriots have two key ingredients that they didn’t have in any of their previous games against Baltimore: Darrelle Revis and Gronk. Those two might not sound like much, but they are.

When Tom Brady has a healthy Gronk to throw to, the Patriots offense is almost impossible to stop. Patriots 30-23 over Ravens.

No. 4 Carolina (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle (12-4), 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX): The last three times the Panthers have played the Seahawks, Carolina has scored 12, 7 and 9 points and gone 0-3, which makes me want to write the Panthers off and move on to my next pick.

However, I’m not going to do that because although the Panthers are 0-3, they’re only a few plays away from being 3-0. In the three games, Carolina has lost 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9.

In the most recent game between these two teams, Carolina almost came out on top. Back in October, the Seahawks needed a touchdown pass from Russell Wilson with 47 seconds left to beat the Panthers 13-9.

I’m not sure why I brought that game up though because that’s not the same Seahawks team the Panthers will see on Saturday.

Going into the October game, the Seahawks were 3-3, on a two game losing streak, had just traded Percy Harvin and had to travel cross-country to Charlotte for a 10 a.m. PT kickoff. Everything was stacked against the Seahawks and they still won.

That’s not the case anymore though. Now the Seahawks are on a mission and they’re going to destroy anyone who gets in their way. And when I say destroy, consider that the Seahawks have won their past six games by a combined score of 134-39.

Carolina has never been able to move the ball on Seattle’s defense and I don’t see that changing in this game. I’ll be shocked if the Panthers score over 14 points. What won’t shock me though is a Seahawks blowout. Seahawks 24-10 over Panthers.

If the Panthers do lose though, at least Stephen Curry will be there to console them.

Sunday, Jan. 11

Is this Tony Romo's new best friend and can Romo beat the Packers? (USATSI) Is this Tony Romo’s new best friend and can Romo beat the Packers? (USATSI)

No. 3 Dallas (13-4) at No. 2 Green Bay (12-4), 1:05 p.m. ET (FOX): For the first time in NFL postseason history, a team that went 8-0 at home during the regular season is going to host a team that went 8-0 on the road.

Now you might be thinking that both of those undefeated records are impressive, but really, only one of them is — and it’s the 8-0 road record.

Here’s a list of teams that have finished 8-0 at home in NFL history: the 2014 Packers, the 2014 Broncos, the 2013 Bengals, the 2013 Patriots, the 2013 Saints, the 2012 Seahawks — Actually, I’m going to stop making this list because there’s a lot of teams on it and it doesn’t really impress me.

The list above of 8-0 home teams was at six when I stopped and the list only went back to 2012.

The list of teams that went 8-0 on the road is only six teams ever in NFL history. Of the five teams that went 8-0 on the road before the Cowboys, all five made the NFC or AFC title game, four made the Super Bowl and two won it all.

Now, just because the Cowboys are undefeated on the road doesn’t mean they’re going to walk out of Lambeau with a playoff win.

The Cowboys are going to walk out of Lambeau with a playoff win because I don’t think Aaron Rodgers is 100 percent and it’s going to be about 15 degrees at kickoff, a temperature I’m happy to see if I have the top running back in the NFL (DeMarco Murray) going up against the league’s 23rd ranked rushing defense. Cowboys 34-31 over Packers.

No. 4 Indianapolis (12-5) at No. 2 Denver (12-4), 4:40 p.m. ET (CBS): Andrew Luck is basically a one-man show in Indianapolis and if the Colts are going to win this game, he’s going to have to single-handedly conquer the NFL’s third ranked defense.

The Colts couldn’t beat good teams this season and that’s because to beat a good team, you can’t just have one person (Luck) carrying the team, you need help from everyone on the roster.

How bad have the Colts been against good teams?

During the 2014 regular season the Colts went 0-4 against division winners (including the Broncos), 2-4 against playoff teams and 2-5 against 10-win teams.

If you don’t count the Bengals — and I don’t count them ever — then the Colts went 1-5 against 10-win teams and 1-4 against playoff teams.

The biggest trouble for Indy is probably the fact that I’m six sentences into this pick and I haven’t even mentioned Peyton Manning — and that’s the difference between Luck and Manning.

If Manning doesn’t play a perfect game, the Broncos can still win thanks to a stifling defense and the legs of C.J. Anderson. On the other hand, if Luck doesn’t play a perfect game, the Colts might lose by three touchdowns. I think Luck will be good on Sunday, but I don’t think he’ll be perfect.

Even if Luck is perfect though, there’s no way he can overcome the curse of Andy Dalton. Every team that’s beaten Dalton in the playoffs has gone on to lose their next game. Dalton always gets the last laugh. Broncos 38-27 over Colts.

Now for some shocking news: I MADE IT THROUGH MY BRONCOS-COLTS PICK WITHOUT MENTIONING JIM IRSAY’S NAME. Your reward for me doing that is this picture.

By the way Andrew Luck, Jim Irsay did not draft you to lose to Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

Last week

Best pick: Last week, I said that if the Cardinals started Ryan Lindley, they would lose. Well, the Cardinals started Lindley and I think we all know what happened.

The Cardinals could’ve won — If only God cared about football.

I want to have this conversation Anthony. Call me.

Worst pick: Last week I wrote something about how I thought the Steelers could win without Le’Veon Bell. I was wrong. There is a consolation in the loss though Steelers fans: You no longer have to tell people that your last playoff loss was to Tim Tebow.

Last week’s playoff record

Straight up: 3-1

SU overall: 3-1

Against the Spread: 2-2

ATS Overall: 2-2

Final Regular Season Record

Straight up: 164-91-1

Against the spread: 125-131

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