Known Hall of Fame ballots point to largest BBWAA class since 1936
As calls for expanded Hall of Fame ballots to help ease the logjam of candidates get louder, the Baseball Writers Association of Baseball (BBWAA) may be on the verge of electing its largest class since its very class first back in 1936.
Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s off the ballot all together? We won’t know all those answers for sure for another 48 hours. However, thanks to Ryan Thibs and others involved at the Baseball Think Factory’s Primer blog, we can analyze some of the early data.
Their mission is to track and report all of known ballots leading up the announcement. At this point, 130 ballots have been made public, which according to their calculations is 22.8 percent of the vote based on 2014. That doesn’t include ballots for Buster Olney and Lynn Henning, who previously announced they are abstaining in protest. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but it’s more than enough to pinpoint what the big stories should be come Tuesday.
First and foremost, the BBWAA is currently on track to elect five players for only the second time in history. For a little more perspective on how rare a class that large would be, only two other times — 1947 and 1955 — have they gone as high as four players.
Also, though it’s already known we still won’t have our first unanimous Hall of Famer, a trio of pitchers look like locks to get it. With 75 percent of the votes needed, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez might as well pop open the champagne. Not only are they going in, they’re both currently positioned to challenge Tom Seaver’s record 98.84 percent from 1992.
Randy Johnson — 99.2
Pedro Martinez — 97.7
Former Atlanta Braves right-hander John Smoltz would be next in line. He’s currently sitting on 89.2 percent. Next in line are Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza, who at the moment are on the right side of the line.
Craig Biggio — 84.2
Mike Piazza — 78.9
After JUST missing the cut at 74.8 percent last season, things are looking more optimistic for Biggio this year. Piazza, on the other hand, could end up as this year’s Biggio. According to the tracking data, as Saturday evening they had already counted 22 ballots from New York and another four from Los Angeles, areas where Piazza figures to do well. If will be very interesting to see if or how much his percentage changes as ballots from other, perhaps less supportive regions trickle in.
Here’s a more complete breakdown of the voting, which will continously be updated until the announcement.
On the outside looking in, Jeff Bagwell (70.0) and Tim Raines (66.2) are in the best positions to make a push. Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are one tier below, ranging from 40 to 55 percent. None are likely to gain the support needed this year.
On the other side of the spectrum, players must receive at least 5 percent of the vote to stay on the ballot. That’s notable because controversial candidates such as Sammy Sosa (5.4) and Mark McGwire (6.9) are far from safe. Two other notable names, Gary Sheffield (9.2) and Larry Walker (9.2), are in slightly better position. Don Mattingly, Nomar Garciaparra and Carlos Delgado would be off the ballot as of Sunday.
Again, we’re analyzing a little less than one-fourth of the expected final votes. A lot can change as those ballots are tabulated, but it appears we’re set up for a large Hall of Fame class and multiple interesting storylines.
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Mark Townsend is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Townie813
