NFL against the spread picks: Wild-card weekend edition – Yahoo Sports (blog)
After 256 regular-season games, we’re down to just 11 remaining games in the NFL season. The playoffs are upon us.
Last year the underdogs went 3-0-1 against the spread in the wild-card round, according to OddsShark.com, so be ready for the unpredictable to happen this weekend. Let’s get to the games, with all lines from the Yahoo Pro Football Pick ’em, as usual:
Arizona Cardinals (+6) over Carolina Panthers: The whole “Panthers are really dangerous” movement has gained a lot of steam, and I’m not sure I get it.
The Panthers beat the Saints, Buccaneers, Browns and Falcons down the stretch. Every one of those teams finished with a losing record. The wins over the Saints and Falcons were blowouts, but again, the Saints and Falcons aren’t good. Does that mean the Panthers are back? This is the same team only about a month removed from a 1-8-1 run. And now they’re giving six points in a playoff game? Tough to swallow.
The flip side is you’re picking Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley on the road. Against a Panthers defense that gave up 43 points in December, bad competition or not. There’s a good chance this pick looks bad in a hurry, but I’m putting my faith in Cardinals coach Bruce Arians and the Arizona defense to find a way to keep it close.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over Baltimore Ravens: The only game the Ravens won against a winning team all season was back in Week 2. They also beat a .500 Miami Dolphins team. The rest of their wins came against teams with losing records. You impressed?
Of course, the one win against a winning team was came against the Steelers. But the Steelers got payback for that with a 43-23 win on Nov. 2. Pittsburgh came down the stretch looking like a team peaking at the right time. This seems like an easy pick. But … Le’Veon Bell’s knee injury. He’s a rare workhorse, playing almost every snap for the Steelers, and there’s not much depth behind him. Will he play? Maybe, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be 100 percent if he does. I still think the Steelers get it done against a Ravens team that really didn’t look good in the final two weeks of the season, with or without Bell. But it makes it a lot tougher.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: The thing about the “can’t win a big game” narrative is that it applies to just about everyone until they actually win a big game. People once upon a time wondered if Michael Jordan could win the big one. (Or, in Peyton Manning’s case, you can win a championship and then critics just move the goal posts and complain you haven’t done it twice.)
The point is, just because the Bengals with Marvin Lewis haven’t won a playoff game doesn’t mean they’re incapable of doing so. You have to really, really, really believe in clutch and unclutch to believe a team that is good enough to make the playoffs four straight years somehow literally can’t win a playoff game. The field is still 100 yards. They’ll still play four 15-minute quarters. It’s not like we’re sending them to Mars for playoff games. They can win in January. They just haven’t yet under Lewis or quarterback Andy Dalton.
I think this is a pretty good spot for the Bengals. The Colts have been rolling bad teams, and the one good team they played down the stretch was Dallas. The Cowboys beat them 42-7. Indianapolis can’t run the ball and it isn’t very good on defense either. I can see the Bengals controlling the ball on the ground with a lot of Jeremy Hill and a decent dose of Giovani Bernard and getting the long awaited playoff win for Lewis.
Detroit Lions (+7) over Dallas Cowboys: All season we’ve known this truth about the Cowboys: Their foundation is the running game. That’s where it starts. DeMarco Murray runs behind that phenomenal offensive line, less pressure is on Tony Romo (who was tremendous and efficient in his role) and it keeps the defense off the field.
Well, what is Detroit’s foundation? Probably its front seven and its ability to stop the run.
The Lions allowed just 69.3 rushing yards per game, the best in the NFL by more than 10 yards per game. The 3.2 yards per carry allowed was the best in the NFL too. Once defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh got reinstated for this game, the matchup got a lot tougher for the Cowboys. The Lions can take away what makes the Cowboys tick. That’s not good for Dallas.
I’d pick the Cowboys straight up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions won. I think the line is way too high for a talented Lions team that matches up well with the Cowboys. Could Matthew Stafford implode and lead to a Cowboys blowout? Sure. But I think this is be the best matchup of the four, and it’ll be a close one.
Last week: 6-9-1
Year to date: 128-123-3
– – – – – – –
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
- Sports & Recreation
- American Football
- Carolina Panthers
- NFL
- Arizona Cardinals
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
