The moment college football fans have been waiting years to see has finally arrived. The New Year brings with it the semifinals of the inaugural College Football Playoff, featuring the top four teams in the country looking to leave their historic mark on the sport. 

Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State have taken very different paths to get here, but all of them are fighting over the same goal. In a year with no great teams, these four stood above the rest. There is at least one significant question mark each must overcome to win a title, which makes these matchups even more fascinating. 

The mark of a championship team is one that can overcome adversity to win. All four teams have done that at various points in the year. One can make a strong, legitimate argument for any of these schools to win the national title. 

Here’s a breakdown of the College Football Playoff, complete with predictions and analysis of what will happen after the clock strikes zero on January 12. 

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State

It’s hard to beat a matchup with Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, but the Rose Bowl showdown between Oregon and Florida State certainly looks more appealing to the casual observer. The big reason is the battle between last year’s Heisman winner, Jameis Winston, and this year’s winner, Marcus Mariota. 

The two quarterbacks have had very different 2014 seasons. Winston has somehow found a way to be the only quarterback in history to win all of his starts and be a disappointment. His performance this year has left a lot to be desired, with 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. 

Mariota has done almost nothing wrong in 2014, with 53 total touchdowns and two interceptions. His only blemish was a loss against Arizona in October that was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship Game when he had 346 total yards and five total touchdowns. 

However, Mariota isn‘t perfect. In fact, as Matt Hinton of Grantland noted, Florida State’s defense could have the magic formula for slowing down the Oregon quarterback:

If there’s any solace for Florida State, it’s the sheer athleticism of its front seven, the likes of which has given Oregon some trouble in past seasons. Mariota isn’t impervious to a decent pass rush — despite his elusiveness, Michigan State, Washington State, Arizona, Washington, Utah, and Oregon State all recorded at least three sacks this year, including the blindside hit that caused the decisive fumble in the loss to Arizona — nor does he have a magic wand to wave on obvious passing downs, the one area in which FSU’s defense has truly excelled.

That pressure will be crucial for the Seminoles, though there’s more to Oregon’s offense than just Mariota. The Ducks average 237.3 rushing yards per game, which is an area where the Seminoles have struggled. Per Yahoo Sports‘ defensive rankings, Florida State is allowing 160.1 rushing yards per game. 

Since Florida State can’t expect to slow down Oregon, this game has to become a shootout for the Seminoles to win. They’ve had success in those games this year, winning all four games in which both teams have scored at least 30 points. 

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

However, if Winston has one of his bad games, Florida State will be out of the Rose Bowl before it can blink. He was lucky to get away with four interceptions against Florida because the Gators offense is terrible. 

Given the way Florida State has flirted with disaster all year, and that Oregon is the best team it will play by a wide margin, the magic carpet ride will come to an end. The Seminoles will keep things close because they’ve done that all year, but the big play in the fourth quarter won’t come. 

Oregon 38, Florida State 31

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State

It’s been more than four years since Saban and Meyer last coached opposite each other. On October 2, 2010, Saban’s Alabama team cruised to a 31-6 win over Meyer’s Florida team in the first matchup of the post-Tim Tebow era. 

Meyer is facing a similar situation this time around. Ohio State lost two star quarterbacks this season—Braxton Miller in camp and J.T. Barrett in the regular-season finale against Michigan—and is depending on Cardale Jones. 

Jones was a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin, but he only had to throw 17 passes because Ohio State ran for 301 yards. Don’t expect that kind of production on the ground against an Alabama defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (88.7) and tied for second-fewest yards per carry (2.8) in the country, via Yahoo Sports.

Alabama’s offense is more versatile than what Ohio State’s defense had to deal with in the Big Ten Championship. The Crimson Tide have the most explosive wide receiver in the country, though there is an overreliance on Amari Cooper that could cause problems, as this stat from ESPN’s John Buccigross shows:

Amari Cooper has 100 more targets and 78 more receptions than any other Crimson Tide player. Both are the largest gaps between No. 1/No. 2

— John Buccigross (@Buccigross) December 30, 2014

The problem is no one has been able to slow Cooper down. He’s been held under eight catches and 80 yards twice all season. 

The Crimson Tide can counter any double-team on Cooper with a running game that averages 209.5 yards per game and accounted for 32 touchdowns. 

One area of Alabama’s defense that has been picked on at times this year is the secondary, allowing 223.7 yards per game. If the Buckeyes can establish some kind of running game early, Jones can work the play-action passing game to throw the ball down the field.  

Given how unlikely that is because of how well Saban has built the front four, all signs point to an Alabama blowout. Ohio State deserves credit for making it this far without its original starting quarterback and losing the other starter late in the year, but there’s only so far a team can go with a third-stringer against the Crimson Tide defense. 

Alabama 41, Ohio State 24

College Football Playoff National Championship

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

It seems only fitting that Alabama and Oregon meet to decide college football’s national champion. These have been the best two teams in the country all year and arguably the top two programs for the last five years. 

Alabama has the physical defense, while Oregon has the most exciting offense in college football. Saban is a legend in the sport. Mark Helfrich is still trying to build his resume and escape the shadow of Chip Kelly. 

An early look at this matchup does favor Alabama. The Crimson Tide are more physical on both sides of the ball. As noted earlier, Mariota has had problems against defensive lines that are able to get after the quarterback. 

Oregon won’t have star cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu due to a knee injury, leaving Cooper matched up with an inferior cornerback. The Ducks do have balance on offense that can cause Alabama problems, especially in the passing game. 

Mariota averaged 10.17 yards per attempt this season, so there will be big plays for Oregon to make down the field. The only question is if the Ducks can keep up their rapid-fire pace against a bigger team that can throw around their smaller defensive players. 

Alabama is at its best when the offense methodically wears an opponent down, creating huge lanes in the running game late. It happened against Missouri in the SEC Championship Game when Derrick Henry had two late touchdowns to seal a 42-13 victory. 

Oregon will keep this game closer than that, but Alabama is just too strong on both sides of the ball. 

Alabama 34, Oregon 28