Matchups: Silva’s Week 18 Matchups
Saturday Football
4:35PM ET Game
Arizona @ Carolina
At 38 points, the Vegas total on Cardinals-Panthers is easily the lowest of the Wild Card Round. Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite, setting Arizona’s team total at under 16 points. The Panthers are the best defensive play of Week 18 and priced accordingly on daily-league sites. Over its final four regular season games, Ron Rivera‘s defense limited opposing quarterbacks to a combined 81-of-145 passing (55.9%) for 815 yards (5.62 YPA) and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio, while piling up 14 sacks. The Panthers have great speed at linebacker and have found a strong cornerback duo in RCB Bene Benwikere and LCB Josh Norman. Performing at a high level, facing a putrid Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals offense, and playing at home in a projected low-scoring affair, Carolina’s defense checks every box necessary for a big fantasy game. … The Panthers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 10, though they are weakest on the ground. Across the aforementioned one-month stretch to close out the year, Carolina coughed up 328 yards on 68 carries (4.82 YPC) to running backs. They finished the season 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Bruce Arians is a pass-first offensive mind, but would be smart to play run-first football in this one, especially considering his quarterback deficiency. From a workload standpoint, Arians has generally taken a hot-hand approach, rotating Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor. A versatile and quick-footed 5-foot-8, 195-pounder, Williams has more “juice” than Taylor and led Arizona in Week 17 carries (17). The Cardinals trust Taylor more in the passing game, but he is a plodding grinder. Both will be involved at Carolina. I’d take my chances with Williams in DFS.
Lindley’s target distribution in two starts to close out the regular season: Michael Floyd 20; John Brown 17; Larry Fitzgerald 15; Marion Grice 7; Darren Fells 6; John Carlson and Taylor 4. … If “chemistry” is a real thing, Lindley and Floyd showed it in Arizona’s Week 17 loss to San Francisco, connecting eight times for 153 yards and two touchdowns in a dominant performance by the Cardinals’ third-year receiver. Floyd plays on the perimeter, where he’ll run most of his routes at stingy Benwikere and Norman. It isn’t a cupcake matchup, but he’s the best bet in Arizona’s receiver corps for a big game this week. … Fitzgerald hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 and hasn’t cleared 40 yards in a game since Week 10. His stat lines since returning from a Grade 2 MCL sprain four weeks ago are 4-34, 7-30, 4-33, and 2-29. Fitz does do most of Arizona’s slot work, where he’ll square off with Panthers safety-turned-slot corner Colin Jones. It’s a good matchup on paper for Fitz, but his effectiveness remains an unknown. … Hitting a rookie wall since a fast start to his first NFL season, “Smokey” Brown is scoreless since early November and closed out the season with seven straight games under 70 receiving yards. I probably wouldn’t bet on a sudden resurgence from Brown. The Cardinals, of course, could really use one. … The Cards are using a three-way tight end rotation of Fells, Housler, and Carlson. The Panthers finished the regular season ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Cam Newton has been busy on the ground since returning from his back injury two games ago. He’s rushed 18 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns, and likely would’ve had more Week 17 carries if not for a lopsided 34-3 win over the defenseless Falcons. Man-coverage teams often have trouble defending running quarterbacks, and the Cardinals play as much man as any team in football. It should surprise no one, then, that Arizona has been torched for QB rushing lines of 6-88-1 (Russell Wilson), 10-73 (Wilson), 12-54 (Colin Kaepernick), and 7-63 (Kaepernick) within their division. The Cardinals’ pass defense also sprung leaks in the final two regular season games, getting flamed by Wilson and Kaepernick for a combined 35-of-57 passing, 543 yards (9.53 YPA), four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Wilson and Kap were sacked just twice. I think Ben Roethlisberger will be the highest-owned Wild Card Round quarterback in daily leagues. But Newton might offer the highest ceiling. … The Cardinals’ late-season defensive collapse wasn’t limited to production surrendered to quarterbacks. Marshawn Lynch (10-113-2) and Frank Gore (25-144) went berserk against Arizona in Weeks 16-17, perhaps opening the door for another big Jonathan Stewart game. The NFL’s second-leading rusher over the season’s final five weeks — behind only DeMarco Murray — Stewart piled up 486 yards on 91 runs (5.34 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns during that stretch. DeAngelo Williams is supposedly due back from a hand injury, but he’s difficult to take seriously as a ground-game threat, especially after Williams didn’t play in Week 17 despite a probable listing on the injury report.
Cam’s Weeks 16-17 target distribution: Kelvin Benjamin 17; Jerricho Cotchery 8; Stewart and Greg Olsen 6; Philly Brown 4; Ed Dickson 3. … Olsen finished 2014 on a slow note, but this game sets up perfectly for an explosion. Benjamin will struggle to get off RCB Antonio Cromartie and LCB Patrick Peterson‘s physical press coverage, while Arizona is highly vulnerable over the middle and up the seam. The Cardinals allowed the most receiving yards (1,064), fourth most receptions (84), and 13th most TDs (8) to tight ends during the regular season. I’d set Olsen’s Week 18 floor at five catches with a ceiling in the double digits. … Benjamin struggled to win against big, physical cornerbacks for much of his rookie year, and I don’t think Saturday’s game will be different. Cromartie (6’2/208) and Peterson (6’0/219) both have the size and length to make inefficient Benjamin’s day a tough one. Benjamin generates very little separation and is one of the league’s weakest run-after-catch receivers. He’ll have to beat Peterson and Cromartie for contested balls, and I don’t think he will. … Cotchery primarily aligns on Peterson’s side of the formation and also figures to have a slow game. Just not a big part of OC Mike Shula‘s 2014 passing attack, Cotchery saw five or fewer targets in six straight games to close out the year.
Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Cardinals 13
8:15PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Ravens-Steelers has a 45-point over-under with host Pittsburgh favored by three. The Vegas sharps seem to envision these teams as fairly evenly matched. They won’t be whenever Ben Roethlisberger is on the field. Big Ben turned in arguably his career-best regular season in 2014, while Baltimore is severely deficient at cornerback and average or slightly better at safety. Facing Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw in Weeks 15-17 favorably skewed their stats, but from Weeks 9-14 the Ravens were skewered by Roethlisberger, Zach Mettenberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Ryan Tannehill for a combined 133-of-187 passing (71.1%), 1,549 yards (8.28 YPA), and a 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Big Ben accounted for six of those touchdowns and might fire up 40-plus attempts on Saturday night, particularly if Le’Veon Bell (knee) can’t play. In playoff DFS leagues, I think Big Ben is the premier quarterback option of the Wild Card Round. This assumes the weather cooperates. If the forecast looks poor Saturday morning, daily leaguers might want to consider pivoting to Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford. … Even if Le’Veon is active, it’s fair to wonder if Pittsburgh will have much of a run game. Baltimore fielded a top-five 2014 run defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and held opposing running backs to the fewest fantasy points in the league, in addition to an anemic 3.54 YPC average. The Ravens are also getting back fresh-legged run-plugger LE Haloti Ngata from a four-game suspension. At 100% in these clubs’ two regular season meetings, Le’Veon managed rushing lines of 11-59-0 and 10-20-0. I think we can pretty safely expect a pass-based game plan from OC Todd Haley. Bell’s direct backup is UDFA rookie Josh Harris, who would presumably handle most of the early-down work if Le’Veon sits. Third-round rookie Dri Archer is a role-player scatback, and street free agent pickup Ben Tate appeared entirely out of gas in his Cleveland and Minnesota stints.
Roethlisberger’s target distribution over the season’s final month: Antonio Brown 46; Le’Veon 24; Heath Miller 23; Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton 15; Matt Spaeth 3; Archer 2. … Brown has such a high floor and ceiling that he should probably be a fixture in every Week 18 daily-league lineup. His two 2014 stat lines against Ravens DC Dean Pees‘ defenses were 11-144-1 and 7-90. Whether Bell plays or not, I’d expect Brown to be Pittsburgh’s primary means of ball movement against Baltimore’s porous secondary. … A big pass-catching day from Miller seems unlikely. Bell’s pass-protection skill will be missed, and Haley may look to his tight ends to pick up the slack. In these clubs’ two regular season meetings, Miller managed receiving lines of 4-35-0 and 1-14-0. … Bryant is the type of talent who could win a DFS tournament, but his usage is always a question mark. His snap rates over the final month were 33%, 43%, 54%, and 44% with corresponding target totals of 6, 5, 2, and 2. Bryant is big, fast, and was born to score touchdowns. He’s also a rotational receiver who disappears from Haley’s game plans for long stretches. … Wheaton would be a contrarian play for those willing to bet against Bryant. Wheaton plays more snaps and generally sees more targets, though his on-field ability is clearly inferior. Accordingly, Wheaton’s daily-league price tag is lower than Bryant’s.
The Ravens’ run-foundation offense sputtered down the stretch before ending on a high note. Despite missing both of his offensive tackles (RT Rick Wagner, LT Eugene Monroe), Forsett dropped 136 total yards and a 7.00 yards-per-carry average on the Browns in Week 17. Pittsburgh’s run defense was below average in 2014, ranking 17th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and permitting 4.31 YPC to running backs. If the Ravens keep this game close — and the Vegas oddsmakers seem to think they will — Forsett should be in good position to push for 20 touches. OC Gary Kubiak‘s zone-run scheme has been lethal when it’s gotten rolling. … In Baltimore’s two regular season dates with Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco completed 51-of-74 throws (68.9%) for 469 yards (6.34 YPA) and a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Steelers’ defense is a sitting duck for opposing pass games because it combines very little pressure (26th in sacks) with some of the league’s poorest cornerback play. Flacco can still be a game-to-game wildcard and had two of his worst performances of the season to close out 2014. Flacco’s playoff dominance remains notable. His TD-to-INT ratio is 19:8 across 13 career postseason games and 15:2 over his last six. Flacco’s FanDuel cost is $8,200 to Roethlisberger’s $8,500, however, so the savings are minimal if you’re looking to fade Big Ben with his Week 18 counterpart.
For reasons alluded to above, Pittsburgh’s defense got flamed by wide receivers following its Week 12 bye, coughing up the following stat lines: 5-162-1 (Kenny Stills), 11-224-1 (A.J. Green), 10-131 (Harry Douglas), 5-85-1 (Devin Hester), 7-58-1 (Roddy White), 5-87 (Albert Wilson), 8-82 (Green again). Torrey Smith went 4-63-1 when these clubs played in Week 9, and Steve Smith Sr. dropped a 6-71 number on the Steelers in Week 2. Because Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, and perhaps Golden Tate will be so heavily owned in daily leagues this week, the Ravens’ Smiths might be attractive contrarian DFS plays. Torrey is the preferred start between the two. Rebounding from a late-season knee ailment, Torrey logged snap rates of 81%, 70%, and 77% in Weeks 15-17. He scored three touchdowns over the final two games. Smith Sr. had two touchdowns over the final ten. … The Steelers surrendered the third most touchdowns (11) in the league to tight ends this regular season, but were 29th in receptions (61) and 25th in yards (695) allowed. This isn’t an appealing matchup for Owen Daniels, whose passing-game involvement frustrated down the stretch. The 32-year-old was held under 50 yards in six of Baltimore’s last seven games and scored just one touchdown during the months of November and December. I think daily leaguers should aim higher this week.
Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 20
Saturday Football
4:35PM ET Game
Arizona @ Carolina
At 38 points, the Vegas total on Cardinals-Panthers is easily the lowest of the Wild Card Round. Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite, setting Arizona’s team total at under 16 points. The Panthers are the best defensive play of Week 18 and priced accordingly on daily-league sites. Over its final four regular season games, Ron Rivera‘s defense limited opposing quarterbacks to a combined 81-of-145 passing (55.9%) for 815 yards (5.62 YPA) and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio, while piling up 14 sacks. The Panthers have great speed at linebacker and have found a strong cornerback duo in RCB Bene Benwikere and LCB Josh Norman. Performing at a high level, facing a putrid Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals offense, and playing at home in a projected low-scoring affair, Carolina’s defense checks every box necessary for a big fantasy game. … The Panthers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 10, though they are weakest on the ground. Across the aforementioned one-month stretch to close out the year, Carolina coughed up 328 yards on 68 carries (4.82 YPC) to running backs. They finished the season 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Bruce Arians is a pass-first offensive mind, but would be smart to play run-first football in this one, especially considering his quarterback deficiency. From a workload standpoint, Arians has generally taken a hot-hand approach, rotating Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor. A versatile and quick-footed 5-foot-8, 195-pounder, Williams has more “juice” than Taylor and led Arizona in Week 17 carries (17). The Cardinals trust Taylor more in the passing game, but he is a plodding grinder. Both will be involved at Carolina. I’d take my chances with Williams in DFS.
Lindley’s target distribution in two starts to close out the regular season: Michael Floyd 20; John Brown 17; Larry Fitzgerald 15; Marion Grice 7; Darren Fells 6; John Carlson and Taylor 4. … If “chemistry” is a real thing, Lindley and Floyd showed it in Arizona’s Week 17 loss to San Francisco, connecting eight times for 153 yards and two touchdowns in a dominant performance by the Cardinals’ third-year receiver. Floyd plays on the perimeter, where he’ll run most of his routes at stingy Benwikere and Norman. It isn’t a cupcake matchup, but he’s the best bet in Arizona’s receiver corps for a big game this week. … Fitzgerald hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 and hasn’t cleared 40 yards in a game since Week 10. His stat lines since returning from a Grade 2 MCL sprain four weeks ago are 4-34, 7-30, 4-33, and 2-29. Fitz does do most of Arizona’s slot work, where he’ll square off with Panthers safety-turned-slot corner Colin Jones. It’s a good matchup on paper for Fitz, but his effectiveness remains an unknown. … Hitting a rookie wall since a fast start to his first NFL season, “Smokey” Brown is scoreless since early November and closed out the season with seven straight games under 70 receiving yards. I probably wouldn’t bet on a sudden resurgence from Brown. The Cardinals, of course, could really use one. … The Cards are using a three-way tight end rotation of Fells, Housler, and Carlson. The Panthers finished the regular season ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Cam Newton has been busy on the ground since returning from his back injury two games ago. He’s rushed 18 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns, and likely would’ve had more Week 17 carries if not for a lopsided 34-3 win over the defenseless Falcons. Man-coverage teams often have trouble defending running quarterbacks, and the Cardinals play as much man as any team in football. It should surprise no one, then, that Arizona has been torched for QB rushing lines of 6-88-1 (Russell Wilson), 10-73 (Wilson), 12-54 (Colin Kaepernick), and 7-63 (Kaepernick) within their division. The Cardinals’ pass defense also sprung leaks in the final two regular season games, getting flamed by Wilson and Kaepernick for a combined 35-of-57 passing, 543 yards (9.53 YPA), four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Wilson and Kap were sacked just twice. I think Ben Roethlisberger will be the highest-owned Wild Card Round quarterback in daily leagues. But Newton might offer the highest ceiling. … The Cardinals’ late-season defensive collapse wasn’t limited to production surrendered to quarterbacks. Marshawn Lynch (10-113-2) and Frank Gore (25-144) went berserk against Arizona in Weeks 16-17, perhaps opening the door for another big Jonathan Stewart game. The NFL’s second-leading rusher over the season’s final five weeks — behind only DeMarco Murray — Stewart piled up 486 yards on 91 runs (5.34 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns during that stretch. DeAngelo Williams is supposedly due back from a hand injury, but he’s difficult to take seriously as a ground-game threat, especially after Williams didn’t play in Week 17 despite a probable listing on the injury report.
Cam’s Weeks 16-17 target distribution: Kelvin Benjamin 17; Jerricho Cotchery 8; Stewart and Greg Olsen 6; Philly Brown 4; Ed Dickson 3. … Olsen finished 2014 on a slow note, but this game sets up perfectly for an explosion. Benjamin will struggle to get off RCB Antonio Cromartie and LCB Patrick Peterson‘s physical press coverage, while Arizona is highly vulnerable over the middle and up the seam. The Cardinals allowed the most receiving yards (1,064), fourth most receptions (84), and 13th most TDs (8) to tight ends during the regular season. I’d set Olsen’s Week 18 floor at five catches with a ceiling in the double digits. … Benjamin struggled to win against big, physical cornerbacks for much of his rookie year, and I don’t think Saturday’s game will be different. Cromartie (6’2/208) and Peterson (6’0/219) both have the size and length to make inefficient Benjamin’s day a tough one. Benjamin generates very little separation and is one of the league’s weakest run-after-catch receivers. He’ll have to beat Peterson and Cromartie for contested balls, and I don’t think he will. … Cotchery primarily aligns on Peterson’s side of the formation and also figures to have a slow game. Just not a big part of OC Mike Shula‘s 2014 passing attack, Cotchery saw five or fewer targets in six straight games to close out the year.
Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Cardinals 13
8:15PM ET Game
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Ravens-Steelers has a 45-point over-under with host Pittsburgh favored by three. The Vegas sharps seem to envision these teams as fairly evenly matched. They won’t be whenever Ben Roethlisberger is on the field. Big Ben turned in arguably his career-best regular season in 2014, while Baltimore is severely deficient at cornerback and average or slightly better at safety. Facing Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw in Weeks 15-17 favorably skewed their stats, but from Weeks 9-14 the Ravens were skewered by Roethlisberger, Zach Mettenberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Ryan Tannehill for a combined 133-of-187 passing (71.1%), 1,549 yards (8.28 YPA), and a 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Big Ben accounted for six of those touchdowns and might fire up 40-plus attempts on Saturday night, particularly if Le’Veon Bell (knee) can’t play. In playoff DFS leagues, I think Big Ben is the premier quarterback option of the Wild Card Round. This assumes the weather cooperates. If the forecast looks poor Saturday morning, daily leaguers might want to consider pivoting to Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford. … Even if Le’Veon is active, it’s fair to wonder if Pittsburgh will have much of a run game. Baltimore fielded a top-five 2014 run defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and held opposing running backs to the fewest fantasy points in the league, in addition to an anemic 3.54 YPC average. The Ravens are also getting back fresh-legged run-plugger LE Haloti Ngata from a four-game suspension. At 100% in these clubs’ two regular season meetings, Le’Veon managed rushing lines of 11-59-0 and 10-20-0. I think we can pretty safely expect a pass-based game plan from OC Todd Haley. Bell’s direct backup is UDFA rookie Josh Harris, who would presumably handle most of the early-down work if Le’Veon sits. Third-round rookie Dri Archer is a role-player scatback, and street free agent pickup Ben Tate appeared entirely out of gas in his Cleveland and Minnesota stints.
Roethlisberger’s target distribution over the season’s final month: Antonio Brown 46; Le’Veon 24; Heath Miller 23; Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton 15; Matt Spaeth 3; Archer 2. … Brown has such a high floor and ceiling that he should probably be a fixture in every Week 18 daily-league lineup. His two 2014 stat lines against Ravens DC Dean Pees‘ defenses were 11-144-1 and 7-90. Whether Bell plays or not, I’d expect Brown to be Pittsburgh’s primary means of ball movement against Baltimore’s porous secondary. … A big pass-catching day from Miller seems unlikely. Bell’s pass-protection skill will be missed, and Haley may look to his tight ends to pick up the slack. In these clubs’ two regular season meetings, Miller managed receiving lines of 4-35-0 and 1-14-0. … Bryant is the type of talent who could win a DFS tournament, but his usage is always a question mark. His snap rates over the final month were 33%, 43%, 54%, and 44% with corresponding target totals of 6, 5, 2, and 2. Bryant is big, fast, and was born to score touchdowns. He’s also a rotational receiver who disappears from Haley’s game plans for long stretches. … Wheaton would be a contrarian play for those willing to bet against Bryant. Wheaton plays more snaps and generally sees more targets, though his on-field ability is clearly inferior. Accordingly, Wheaton’s daily-league price tag is lower than Bryant’s.
The Ravens’ run-foundation offense sputtered down the stretch before ending on a high note. Despite missing both of his offensive tackles (RT Rick Wagner, LT Eugene Monroe), Forsett dropped 136 total yards and a 7.00 yards-per-carry average on the Browns in Week 17. Pittsburgh’s run defense was below average in 2014, ranking 17th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and permitting 4.31 YPC to running backs. If the Ravens keep this game close — and the Vegas oddsmakers seem to think they will — Forsett should be in good position to push for 20 touches. OC Gary Kubiak‘s zone-run scheme has been lethal when it’s gotten rolling. … In Baltimore’s two regular season dates with Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco completed 51-of-74 throws (68.9%) for 469 yards (6.34 YPA) and a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Steelers’ defense is a sitting duck for opposing pass games because it combines very little pressure (26th in sacks) with some of the league’s poorest cornerback play. Flacco can still be a game-to-game wildcard and had two of his worst performances of the season to close out 2014. Flacco’s playoff dominance remains notable. His TD-to-INT ratio is 19:8 across 13 career postseason games and 15:2 over his last six. Flacco’s FanDuel cost is $8,200 to Roethlisberger’s $8,500, however, so the savings are minimal if you’re looking to fade Big Ben with his Week 18 counterpart.
For reasons alluded to above, Pittsburgh’s defense got flamed by wide receivers following its Week 12 bye, coughing up the following stat lines: 5-162-1 (Kenny Stills), 11-224-1 (A.J. Green), 10-131 (Harry Douglas), 5-85-1 (Devin Hester), 7-58-1 (Roddy White), 5-87 (Albert Wilson), 8-82 (Green again). Torrey Smith went 4-63-1 when these clubs played in Week 9, and Steve Smith Sr. dropped a 6-71 number on the Steelers in Week 2. Because Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, and perhaps Golden Tate will be so heavily owned in daily leagues this week, the Ravens’ Smiths might be attractive contrarian DFS plays. Torrey is the preferred start between the two. Rebounding from a late-season knee ailment, Torrey logged snap rates of 81%, 70%, and 77% in Weeks 15-17. He scored three touchdowns over the final two games. Smith Sr. had two touchdowns over the final ten. … The Steelers surrendered the third most touchdowns (11) in the league to tight ends this regular season, but were 29th in receptions (61) and 25th in yards (695) allowed. This isn’t an appealing matchup for Owen Daniels, whose passing-game involvement frustrated down the stretch. The 32-year-old was held under 50 yards in six of Baltimore’s last seven games and scored just one touchdown during the months of November and December. I think daily leaguers should aim higher this week.
Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 20
Sunday Football
1:05PM ET Game
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
The first game on Sunday’s slate has the Wild Card Round’s highest Vegas total (49) with Indianapolis favored by 3.5 points. I think Cincinnati can win if and only if OC Hue Jackson abides by one formula: Putting the ball in Jeremy Hill‘s belly 25-plus times. Gashed by the Titans’ motley running back crew for a combined 18-114 rushing number in Week 17, the Colts finished the regular season ranked 19th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and allowed the 12th most fantasy points to running backs, including the fifth most rushing scores (14). Here’s a stat from Pro Football Focus’ Pat Thorman: During the eight weeks where Hill handled 17-plus touches this season, the Bengals went 7-1 and Hill led all running backs in fantasy points, averaging 140 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown per game. With Le’Veon Bell (knee) injured and DeMarco Murray facing Detroit, I think you can make a solid case that Hill is the highest-upside daily-league running back play in the playoffs’ initial round. … Giovani Bernard‘s snap rates are 37%, 37%, and 42% over the past three weeks, with corresponding touch totals of 18, 13, and 10. I expect Bernard to be in the 8-12 touch range at Indianapolis, though that number could increase if the Colts grab a lead and force Jackson to call more pass plays. Gio notched receiving lines of 5-45-1 and 7-56-1 in Weeks 16 and 17, playing more than usual in Cincinnati’s loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. He’s a Week 18 daily-league sleeper who will pay dividends if game flow gets away from the Bengals.
The Colts blew out the Bengals 27-0 when these teams played in October. It’s worth remembering he was without A.J. Green (toe), but Andy Dalton went 18-of-38 passing (47.4%) for 126 yards (3.32 YPA) with three sacks taken and a 55.4 quarterback rating. The strength of Colts coach Chuck Pagano‘s defense is in the air, where Indy finished the regular season No. 10 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA and limited enemy passers to a 58.9% completion rate, the NFL’s sixth stingiest clip. Across three career playoff games, Dalton is 70-of-123 (56.9%) for 718 yards (5.84 YPA) with a 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 0-3 record. Especially with both Green and Jermaine Gresham playing beat up, Jackson must do everything he can to keep the ball out of Dalton’s hands. … Dalton’s target distribution over the last month: Green 43; Gio 21; Gresham 18; Ryan Hewitt 10; Mohamed Sanu 9; Hill 8; Brandon Tate 6. … Green appears on track to play after suffering a Week 17 concussion. He’s also playing through a biceps injury that has affected Green’s ability to raise his arm above his head. Green still secured 8-of-13 targets for 82 yards in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. Hurting and set to run Week 18 routes at physical Colts press corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, Green is a less attractive Wild Card Round DFS start than Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, and Calvin Johnson. … Sanu’s target totals over the final five regular season weeks were 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1. He becomes intriguing if and only if Green is unexpectedly inactive for this game. … Gresham has battled debilitating back and toe ailments in recent weeks. He played Week 17 in a noticeable amount of pain. After failing to practice this week, I’d be concerned Gresham won’t last long on Sunday.
The Colts dismantled the Bengals in Week 7, totaling 506 yards of offense and controlling possession time 40:20. Indianapolis had one of the worst run games in football in 2014, but still stomped Cincinnati with 166 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries (5.72 YPC) from its running backs. Weak at linebacker and soft in the trenches, the Bengals finished 28th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Dan Herron is probably my favorite DFS running back value of the Wild Card Round because his matchup is ideal and he has safely overtaken Trent Richardson. Whereas Herron started each of Indy’s final two games, handling snap rates of 46% and 45%, T-Rich came off the bench en route to playing-time clips of 28% and 21%. It was particularly telling that Herron exited after the first drive of the third quarter in last week’s meaningless win over Tennessee. Richardson and Zurlon Tipton handled second-half backfield duties with Matt Hasselbeck in the game. OC Pep Hamilton similarly phased Richardson out of his offense in last year’s two playoff games, giving him touch totals of 1 and 3. Donald Brown took over as the bellcow, touching the ball 15 and 18 times. I think we’ll see Herron in the Brown role versus Cincinnati. And with actual things on the line, I doubt we’ll see much T-Rich. … Andrew Luck cooked Cincinnati at the short and intermediate levels in Week 7, ripping off five pass plays of 20-plus yards. The Bengals could not stop Indy on posts and crossers. I still think we’ll see a solid effort from a Cincinnati defense whose strength is standout secondary play. DC Paul Guenther‘s unit has limited opposing quarterbacks to an 18:20 TD-to-INT ratio and 75.8 passer rating, the NFL’s third stingiest mark. The Bengals’ regular season pass rush was lacking, but the Colts’ offensive line is bad enough to spark it. Bengals LE Carlos Dunlap will cause matchup problems for fill-in Colts RT Joe Reitz, who is starting in place of Gosder Cherilus (knee).
It’s fair to wonder how healthy T.Y. Hilton will be against the Bengals. He missed Week 16 with a hamstring strain and was pulled 27 snaps into Week 17 after failing to secure any of his three targets. The Colts seem to think Hilton will be fine — and perhaps he will be — but hamstring injuries and wide receivers often don’t mix well. I think Hilton’s effectiveness is a major Week 18 question mark. … There is so much health uncertainty in Indianapolis’ deep pass-catcher corps that forecasting which player will benefit or have a big game is difficult. And no member of the group has an especially enticing Wild Card Round matchup. Dwayne Allen will play against the Bengals, but missed Week 17 with a knee injury and was banged up for much of the season’s second half. Allen may be asked to help Reitz block Dunlap frequently in this game. Attempting to play through a torn triceps, Reggie Wayne was brutally ineffective over the final month and a half and pulled his groin in last Sunday’s win over Tennessee. Coby Fleener, Donte Moncrief, and Hakeem Nicks are healthy, but have been hit-or-miss producers. I’m sure one or two of these players will have a big game, but I can’t pretend to know whom it will be. Despite this game’s lofty Vegas total and Luck’s presence at quarterback, I’m avoiding Colts pass catchers in Week 18 DFS.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Colts 23
4:40PM ET Game
Detroit @ Dallas
An unstoppable force meets an immovable object when Dallas’ No. 2-ranked rushing offense plays host to Detroit’s league-best run defense Sunday evening. The Lions finished the regular season No. 1 in run defense, No. 1 in yards-per-carry allowed (3.17), and No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. The Cowboys have stayed dedicated to the run through thick and thin and I think DeMarco Murray is a good bet for 20-plus carries, but it’s worth pondering whether a ground-game commitment would be Dallas’ best means of moving the Week 18 chains. Understandably over the course of a 392-carry campaign, Murray slowed down in late November and December, managing a 3.93 YPC average across his final five games. He averaged 5.07 in the initial 11. Murray’s workload is secure and he’s a good bet for a goal-line score or two, but I think this game sets up better for a Dez Bryant blowup. … Whilst Murray was fading, Tony Romo was exploding, completing 74.8% of his passes with an 8.89 YPA and 12:1 TD-to-INT ratio over the season’s final month. Quietly almost, Romo led the NFL in 2014 completion percentage (69.9%), touchdown rate (7.8% of his throws went for six), yards per attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2). Detroit’s front seven is very disruptive, but Romo’s quick release can mitigate opposing pass rush, and the Lions’ secondary can be had. Detroit allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of its final seven games while permitting 250-plus-yard passing efforts to the likes of Drew Stanton, Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, and Teddy Bridgewater. In Wild Card Round daily fantasy, Romo is every bit as justifiable a play as Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton.
Romo’s target distribution over the season’s final month: Dez Bryant 26; Jason Witten 25; Cole Beasley 19; Murray 14; Terrance Williams 11; Lance Dunbar 4. … The Lions are vulnerable to plus-sized wide receivers, surrendering stat lines of 2-54-2 (Michael Floyd), 9-98 (Brandon LaFell), 9-71-2 (Alshon Jeffery), 10-159 (Vincent Jackson), 4-45-2 (Mike Evans), 5-72 (Charles Johnson), 6-72-1 (Jeffery again), and 6-86 (Jordy Nelson) over their final seven regular season games. All of those wideouts stand 6-foot-2 or taller, and Dez goes 6-foot-2, 224. If Antonio Brown is the best bet among Wild Card Round wide receivers, Dez is a close No. 2. … Detroit also showed susceptibility to tight ends this year, allowing the fourth most receptions (84) in the league to the position. I like Witten as a top-three DFS tight end play this week. … Williams plays more snaps than Beasley, but the latter’s passing-game role was bigger down the stretch. Williams didn’t see more than five targets in any of Dallas’ last seven games, goose egging twice during that span. I think this will be a Dez-Witten game and would avoid the Cowboys’ complementary receivers in daily-league lineups.
The on-field performances were mixed, but Matthew Stafford finished his first season under rookie OC Joe Lombardi on a statistical high note. He completed 119-of-187 passes (63.6%) for 1,314 yards (7.03 YPA) and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio across Detroit’s final five games. The Cowboys’ pass defense was inconsistent over the course of the year, finishing 22nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and 28th in sacks (28). Talent deficient on DC Rod Marinelli‘s side of the ball, Dallas effectively uses its high-volume rushing attack to mask its defense, ranking first in the NFL in time of possession. Only four teams played fewer defensive snaps than the 2014 Cowboys. I think Stafford is a sleeper for a big Wild Card game because Dallas likely will not be able to control the clock against Detroit, forcing a sub-par Cowboys defense onto the field more. … Dallas’ run defense stiffened in the season’s final month, holding Bears, Colts, Eagles, and Redskins running backs to a combined 187 yards on 62 carries (3.01 YPC). Although Joique Bell remained Dallas’ lead runner, the healthy return of Reggie Bush ate into Bell’s stretch-run usage. Bell’s workload dipped in four straight weeks to close out the year, while Bush registered touch totals of 12, 4, 13, and 8 in Weeks 14-17. The Lions also use Theo Riddick in some passing-specific packages. Whereas Riddick and Bush combined for 23 pass targets the past two weeks, Bell only saw three. Bell will get any and all goal-line work, but he doesn’t appear to the good bet for 20 or so touches he was closer to midseason. I think there are better DFS running back plays this week.
Stafford’s target distribution in Weeks 14-17: Calvin Johnson 38; Golden Tate 29; Bush 21; Bell 14; Eric Ebron 12; Riddick 10; Jeremy Ross 6. … Marinelli’s Cover 2-style defense is designed specifically to limit big plays on the perimeter. Cowboys LCB Brandon Carr has still been frequently victimized for chunk-yardage gains and touchdowns, and Megatron is going to run a lot of routes against him in perhaps the biggest mismatch of the Wild Card Round. Megatron is capable of having a monster game, but schematically Tate and Ebron could also give Dallas fits. Tate is a classic zone-beating slot receiver who will be asked by Lombardi to find soft spots in the middle of the field. Although his rookie season was poor, Ebron is a Week 18 DFS sleeper with a cheap price tag. The top-ten draft pick logged a 61% snap rate in Week 17, and during the regular season Dallas allowed the most receptions (109), second most yards (1,052), and seventh most touchdowns (10) in the league to tight ends.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Lions 24
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