2014 college football bowl picks and predictions: Dec. 30 and Dec. 31 – Washington Post College football bowl season is in full swing, so here’s Neil Greenberg’s look at the teams that are likely to win the early round of games through Christmas Eve. The methodology is simple: The difference of the teams’ Simple Rating System will be used as the point spread to determine a team’s win probability by applying the model from Wayne Winston’s book “Mathletics.” Dec. 30 Notre Dame vs. Louisiana State in the Music City Bowl The Fighting Irish? More like the Turnover Irish. Notre Dame has not won the turnover battle in their past six games and face the nation’s best pass defense in LSU. The Fighting Tigers have allowed opposing quarterback to compile a 98.7 passer rating against this season and don’t get hurt by the run either, allowing 106 yards or less in four of their last five games. Georgia vs. Louisville in the Belk Bowl After running back Todd Gurley went down with an injury, Georgia’s rushing attack didn’t miss a beat with Nick Chubb handling the ball, running for 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns on just 186 carries. However, Louisville boats one of the nation’s best run defense, allowing the second most yards per games this season (93.7). But the Cardinals are starting a rookie quarterback under center, either Reggie Bonnafon or Kyle Bolin, behind an offensive line that allowed 36 sacks. Maryland vs. Stanford in the Foster Farms Bowl Stanford’s defense led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency (105.4 passer rating against), run defense (111.8 rushing yards allowed per game) and scoring (16.0 points allowed per game). The Cardinal is also sixth in the nation for sacks per game (3,3). Dec. 31 Mississippi vs. Texas Christian in the Peach Bowl No team has allowed fewer points than Ole Miss (13.8 points per game), but they will be facing the nation’s second best scoring offense in TCU (46.8 points per game). Keep an eye on Rebels’ cornerback Senquez Golson, who was one of three unanimous picks for the all-SEC first team. Golson led the SEC with nine interceptions, which was good for second in the nation behind Louisville’s Gerod Holliman (14). Boise State vs. Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl The Wildcats won 10 games for the first time since 1998 and had seven receivers with 200 or more receiving yards thanks to freshman quarterback Anu Solomon throwing for 3,458 passing yards. If he is healthy (he suffered an injury against Oregon) and avoids the slow starts that cost them games against USC, UCLA and Oregon, the Wildcats will win their third straight Bowl game.
61.4 percent win probability for Louisiana State
Prediction: Louisiana State wins by 4
64.6 percent win probability for Georgia
Prediction: Georgia wins by 5
74.5 percent win probability for Stanford
Prediction: Stanford wins by 9
52.4 percent win probability for Mississippi
Prediction: Mississippi wins by 1
56.2 percent win probability for Arizona
Prediction: Arizona wins by 2
Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog and prefers to be called a geek rather than a nerd.
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