Week 17 NFL underdog picks, DraftKings picks & more – FOXSports.com
Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as underdogs and totals and daily fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense.
Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.
Last week’s four-pack of picks got off to a horrifying start as the San Diego Chargers fell behind 21 points to the San Francisco 49ers by halftime. But the game was a tale of two halves. After the break, the 49ers’ offense started playing like the 49ers’ offense we expected (poorly!) and Philip Rivers made things right with a glorious last-minute comeback to send the game to overtime. That’s when the Bolts miraculously delivered us to the Promised Land … Cover City, NV, population WOOOOOO!
With the exception of the Buccaneers‘ unfortunate but not overly surprising offensive no-show in a 20-3 loss to the Packers, we did nicely overall with covers on the Vikings and the Giants. All hail the Mighty and Glorious Odell Beckham Jr., who has achieved such a status in New York that veteran teammates will fight to protect him, even if he helps incite opponents with chirping and celebrations.
Last week marked a 3-1 showing overall, improving the Playbook Underdogs to 17-15 on the season as we head into the final installment. Yes, I’m afraid this is the end.
Or is it? I’m not sure. I think we all know I’m not going to lock and seal my bankroll until September 2015, so perhaps we will meet again next week for Wild Card Weekend shenanigans.
On to the picks for Week 17, where handicapping becomes even more difficult, when some players will rest for the playoffs and others have simply packed it in.
ST. LOUIS RAMS +14 AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett believes that the Seahawks D is best to ever play football. I’ll leave that to Football Outsiders to put the squad in historical perspective, but I think we can agree that Seattle is peaking at the right time. Bennett — aka “Black Santa” — and the Hawks have allowed a mere 6.6 points per game over their past five.
Seattle still has much to play for this week, namely home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win plus a non-tie in the Lions-Green Bay NFC North clash, or a win and a Dallas loss. But the Rams aren’t simply going to roll over.
Before a pair of disappointing losses to the Giants and Cardinals, the Rams enjoyed a nice 5-3 stretch in which they toppled the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos and shut out both the Raiders and Washington Snyders.
In that win over the Hawks, the defense held Marshawn Lynch to a pedestrian 2.9 yards per carry on 18 attempts, but Wilson burned them with 313 yards passing and a long 52-yard run. The Rams will need to score some damn points here, but Las Vegas has already rushed for two touchdowns. I think the Rams can muster some points from Tre Mason or Stedman Bailey or gain some field position on Seattle self-inflicted wounds (they lead the league in offensive penalties).
Bottom line: We’ll get a motivated team looking to head into the offseason on a high note, getting two touchdowns against a division rival. Richard Sherman and that defense is the real deal and I look forward to backing them in the playoffs, but I think in this spot the Rams can manage to avoid a blowout loss.
Crap. Sorry, Richard. This is going to end badly.
OAKLAND RAIDERS +14 AT DENVER BRONCOS
Here we are again with the Raiders. I haven’t kept a log of how many times we’ve backed the Silver and Black, but I have a generally positive feeling about their continued strong efforts despite the terrible record (3-12).
The Broncos (7-0 at home) will look to right the ship after getting whipped in Cincinnati on what shall be known as the Game When Andy Dalton and the Bengals Proved That They Could Beat a Good Opponent in Prime Time.
I’m encouraged that Raiders coach Tony Sparano is going to release Latavius Murray for a full workload, assuming the Broncos don’t get too far ahead. Raiders QB Derek Carr said about Murray’s presence in the backfield:
“Teams just can’t sit and drop everybody into coverage. That’s why you see — especially the San Francisco game is a good one to look at, play action game was big-time in that one — that’s a big reason, because of the run game. We were able to hit the play actions and take big chunks, so this whole thing correlates, works together.”
These guys are professionals and aren’t about to let Peyton Manning trample over them as the Broncos look to lock up the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. The Raiders are coming off a nice win over the Bills, who beat the Broncos at home the previous week. Unfortunately the transitive property doesn’t work in football, but sometimes you can bank on self-respect. Here’s what Oakland’s standout rookie linebacker Khalil Mack had to say about the improved state of the union:
“It is what it is at this point, but we’re just out there just fighting for each other and this team and this organization. It speaks to the veteran leaders in this locker room, as well as the young guys.”
Let’s take the red pill and the points.
CHICAGO BEARS +6 AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
A couple weeks ago I was prepared to avoid the Bears for the remainder of 2014. But now that they’ve benched “franchise QB” Jay Cutler, then got forced to resurrect him after the Lions rocked Jimmy Clausen’s dome in his first start in two years, I’m thinking maybe Jay Cutler cuts loose and uses the game as an audition for the rest of the league.
Cutler actually had a nice showing against the Vikings in Week 11 when he completed 31 of 43 for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Matt Forte also rushed 26 times for 117 yards. We’ll also get to watch former Viking Jared Allen face off against Minnesota’s left tackle Matt Kalil, who’s struggled mightily this season and allowed a whopping 12 sacks.
After putting together a Pulitzer-nominated gallery of 10 photos of Jay Cutler smiling and laughing with the Bears — after his benching — I really didn’t expect to be backing him in Week 17, which makes me like this side more since it feels much more grounded in logic than emotion.
INTERMISSION: HAPPY, FEEL-GOOD TIME
Have you ever been this happy about anything in your life, ever? Watch this English bulldog puppy testing out and loving his new memory foam bed.
DRAFTKINGS DISCOUNT PICKS OF THE WEEK
If you’re reading this in the first place you probably know what daily fantasy leagues are all about, but if not: You draft a team within the bounds of a salary cap, join a contest, turn on Red Zone Channel and pray. It’s a lot of fun. More information here.
Quarterbacks:
Russell Wilson ($7,500) vs. Rams: Yeah, I’m taking the QB opposing one of the teams I picked, but his scrambling and rushing ability have made him a huge asset and underpriced I think, too. A short list of running backs Wilson has outgained (842 yards) on the ground this season (on a modest 112 carries): Joique Bell (800), Jonathan Stewart (760 yards), Gio Bernard (572).
Cam Newton ($7,500) at Falcons: For all the marbles in the NFC South, I think Cam might take matters into his own legs and also ring up some passing yards against one of the league’s worst pass defenses in the Atlanta Falcons. You ready Superman?
Running backs
Davonte Freeman ($3,600) vs. Panthers: One running back’s injury (Steven Jackson) is another one’s opportunity. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, teammate Jacquizz Rodgers is expected to start and handle the “bulk” of the carries, but for contest purposes, I think the explosive Freeman offers the biggest point-splosion upside.
Brandon Oliver ($3,500) at Chiefs: This is kind of a scary proposition given the fluid state of the Chargers’ backfield but it looks like Oliver will be a top dog as the Bolts look to seize a win-and-in opportunity against the Chiefs. With Ryan Mathews ruled out, Oliver is in line for possibly another 15-20 touches.
Wide receivers
Malcolm Floyd ($4,600) at Chiefs: Floyd has consistently delivered about four receptions per game with six touchdowns sprinkled in there. With Keenan Allen still out, maybe Floyd blows up for five this week!
Greg Jennings ($4,300) vs. Bears: The veteran has reeled in a touchdown in four of the Vikes’ past five games. Not a bad trend heading into a game against a highly beatable secondary.
Tight ends
Greg Olsen ($5,600) vs. Falcons: Not exactly cheap for a tight end but it’s a pretty good price for a veteran Pro Bowler in a win-and-in situation. His price dropped after a letdown last week but he caught 10 passes in each of the previous two games.
Mychal Rivera ($3,300) at Broncos: Results have been mixed but his 91 targets this season and earlier success against the Broncos (6 receptions, 64 yards and a score) makes him a better than decent dollar-store option.
Defense/Special teams
Houston Texans ($3,200) vs. Jaguars: They’re home, technically not eliminated from the playoffs, facing a quarterback (Blake Bortles) who’s thrown 17 interceptions and fumbled six times (he only lost one). I’ll take my chances that J.J. Watt ruins something for the rookie.
It’s been real, people. See you in the playoffs.
Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.
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