(Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images)

College football bowl season is in full swing, so here’s Neil Greenberg’s look at the teams that are likely to win the early round of games through Christmas Eve. The methodology is simple: The difference of the teams’Simple Rating System will be used as the point spread to determine a team’s win probability by applying the model from Wayne Winston’s book “Mathletics.”

Dec. 26

Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech in the Heart of Dallas Bowl
69.3 percent win probability for Louisiana Tech
Prediction: Louisiana Tech wins by 7

Louisiana Tech running back Kenneth Dixon rushed for 1,236 yards and scored 21 touchdowns, plus added another 306 yards and five touchdowns receiving. That’s a tough matchup for Illinois, who allowed 249.6 rushing yards per game, sixth most in the nation.

Rutgers vs. North Carolina in the Quick Lane Bowl
51.5 percent win probability for North Carolina
Prediction: North Carolina wins by 1

The Tar Heels have the 16th best offense in college football according to The Fremeau Efficiency Index, a scoring rate analysis which considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. That should be enough to overcome Rutgers’ swarming defense, which has registered 32 sacks this season.

North Carolina State vs. Central Florida in the St. Petersburg Bowl
55.1 percent win probability for North Carolina State
Prediction: North Carolina State wins by 2

The Wolf Pack averages 5.4 yards per carry and will need every bit of that going against a defense that yields just 4.3 yards per play,

Dec. 27

Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl
58.2 percent win probability for Virginia Tech
Prediction: Virginia Tech wins by 3

Despite injuries, defensive guru Bud Foster has the Hokies defense ranked second in sacks per game (3.8) and 12th in pass efficiency defense (106.5 passer rating against).

Duke vs. Arizona State in the Sun Bowl
67.3 percent win probability for Arizona State
Prediction: Arizona State wins by 6

Arizona State has a “Big Three” of its own in quarterback Taylor Kelly, receiver Jaelen Strong and running back D.J. Foster. Those three have helped the Sun Devils score the 18th most points per game (38) this season.

Miami (FL) vs. South Carolina in the Independence Bowl
60.5 percent win probability for Miami (FL)
Prediction: Miami (FL) wins by 4

South Carolina’s run defense has allowed 200 yards or more in six of its last seven games — and two of those were over the 300-yard mark. They have also allowed three or more rushing touchdowns in half of their games,  which bodes well for Miami’s efficient offensive attack.

Boston College vs. Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl
67.1 percent win probability for Boston College
Prediction: Boston College wins by 6

Look for Boston College to establish the running game after rushing for 251.8 yards per game. Quarterback Tyler Murphy and running back Jon Hillman each ran for double-digit touchdowns, and should keep the Nittany Lions’ defense off balance all game.

Nebraska vs. Southern California in the Holiday Bowl
60.1 percent win probability for Southern California
Prediction: Southern California wins by 4

USC quarterback Cody Kessler quietly put together a solid campaign, completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 3,505 yards, 36 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Nebraska’s pass defense is phenomenal – ranking third in the country for pass efficiency defense – but it is unknown if they will come out firing after former coach Bo Pelini was let go.

Dec. 29

Texas A&M vs. West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl
51.o percent win probability for West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia wins by 1

It is uncertain which Aggies team will show up: the one that won their first five games or the one that lost five of their last seven. According to the Simple Rating System these teams are just about equal, but give the nod to West Virginia, who ranks higher in Football Outsider’s overall rating.

Oklahoma vs. Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl
57.3 percent win probability for Oklahoma
Prediction: Oklahoma wins by 3

There was a time this season where Oklahoma was considered one of the best team’s in the nation, but will need a healthy Samaje Perine to get past Clemson. Perine averaged 6.6 yards rushing and 7.2 receiving as a freshman.

Arkansas vs. Texas in the Texas Bowl
73.2 percent win probability for Arkansas
Prediction: Arkansas wins by 9

Disregard Arkansas’s win-loss record: this team is more than two touchdowns per game than average after adjusting for strength of schedule.