Draft Strategy: 2015 Category Sleepers: SV
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
The following is Week 7 of the 10-part series of sleepers for each 5×5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Now that we are onto the categories that are more playing time and opportunity based, I’ll mention more names for you to stow away as you prepare for your drafts. With offseason movement still rampant, the opportunity for many of these players is still very much to be determined.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category.
Saves are one of the most frustrating categories for fantasy owners because we are at the mercy of major league managers. Much of the fun in fantasy preparation is forecasting based on indicators, talent, and predictable skill, yet saves are just as much about opportunity and being in the right place at the right time. One slump at the wrong time (Sergio Romo) can mean losing a job, while being at the right place at the right time (Jake Petricka) can “earn” a pitcher the job.
Below is a rundown of the obvious saves sleepers heading into 2015 – mostly pitchers with a history of closing and at least a fair probability of getting a significant opportunity to close at some point this season. Also, there are a few less obvious picks to keep an eye on. Despite our best efforts to predict, there will surely be a few new closers crowned in 2015 that no one expected. That makes the strategy of dumping saves seem that much more attractive.
The Obvious (Mixed League Worthy)
Tyler Clippard, Nationals
Clippard has been mentioned in trade rumors, but as it stands at the time of this writing he’s Drew Storen’s handcuff. He’s proven that he can handle closing after converting 32 saves in 2012, and has been quite the workhorse for the Nats since 2010. Storen was spectacular last season as a setup man, but he’s had some struggles in the past and has a less closer-worthy 8.2 K/9 for his career. Clippard is an obvious add behind Storen if he doesn’t become the closer for another team before Opening Day.
Wade Davis, Royals
Davis is in a similar situation to Clippard, with his name in trade rumors. The Royals had one of the top pens in the game last season, and it stands to get even better with Luke Hochevar returning from Tommy John surgery. For his purposes, Davis was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last season with a 1.00 ERA and 13.6 K/9. It would probably take a Greg Holland injury for Davis to find saves in KC, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Royals sell high on him in the coming weeks with another team crowning Davis their closer.
Danny Farquhar, Mariners
The Mariners signed Fernando Rodney to a two-year contract last offseason to replace Farquhar at closer, and got their money’s worth with an AL-leading 48 saves from him. The final stats also reflect a strong pitcher, though there is some reason for concern. Rodney saw his average fastball increase above 96 mph while with Tampa in 2012-13, a major reason for his success. Last season the fastball declined below 95 mph, and it shouldn’t be expected to rebound with Rodney going on age 38. While we shouldn’t get too carried away yet, Farquhar is a smart add in this situation.
Ken Giles, Phillies
Giles showed all he needed last season to gain respect as Philadelphia’s closer of the future, posting a 1.18 ERA and 5.82 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings. Unfortunately, Giles sits behind the overpaid Jonathan Papelbon, but the start of the organization’s firesale would seem to put Papelbon squarely in the crosshairs if someone is willing to take on his contract. Certainly a situation worth watching.
Jason Motte, Cubs
Motte provides some closing experience to the Cubs bullpen behind Hector Rondon. Rondon did a nice job in his first season as the team’s closer, with a 2.42 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning. Motte, on the other hand, struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery with a 4.68 ERA and poor 6.1 K/9. The difference was clearly his lack of velocity. Motte has been almost a one-pitch pitcher for his career, but lost nearly three mph on his fastball in his return. That said, the Cubs are clearly betting on Motte’s rebound after signing him for $4.5 million, and he has the most closing experience in the team’s pen should Rondon struggle or get hurt.
Bobby Parnell, Mets
Parnell made only one appearance and tore his elbow ligament last season. He has a chance to start the season on time following Tommy John surgery, though we’re more likely to see him in May or June. Regardless, the Mets will give Parnell some time to work his way back, but some save opportunities during the second half are a fair possibility. The Mets haven’t officially settled on Jenrry Mejia as a reliever in the long term, and his history of elbow injuries doesn’t make him the safest closer. Parnell’s closing experience, with 36 career saves, certainly makes him a strong handcuff when he returns.
Joakim Soria, Tigers
I don’t think it’s at all controversial to project more saves for Soria than Joe Nathan in 2015. There are major questions surrounding Nathan after a terrible 2014 season in which he posted a 4.81 ERA and K/BB ratio below 2.00. Nathan has lost significant velocity over the last two seasons, and turned 40 in November. Yet, the Tigers are at least going into spring training with Nathan as their closer after signing him to a two-year, $20 million contract last offseason. Still, it’s no coincidence that they traded for Soria last July, a pitcher with 178 career saves. Soria didn’t pitch particularly well during his stint with the Tigers, but his full season was good with an awesome 1.2 BB/9 and more than one strikeout per inning. His pinpoint control has allowed him to succeed after Tommy John surgery despite slightly less velocity, and makes him a terrific fallback if Nathan struggles again. The Tigers are still in win-now mode, and manager Brad Ausmus can only exercise so much more patience in a highly competitive AL Central division.
Jordan Walden, Cardinals
The Cardinals added a pitcher with closing experience in Walden, who will try to fill the shoes of Pat Neshek and Jason Motte. St. Louis closer Trevor Rosenthal faced some serious hiccups last season, especially late in the year. Rosenthal had a dire 5.4 BB/9 and 1.41 WHIP, and manager Mike Matheny seemed to lose confidence in him at times during the second half. Walden hasn’t been a regular closer since 2011 with the Angels, but he did fill-in well for Craig Kimbrel in his brief opportunities last season. Walden has also had his share of control issues during his career, but he has a dominant 10.8 K/9 and has never posted an ERA worse than 3.46. If Rosenthal is unable to work out his control issues, Walden would be a smart addition.
The Less Obvious (Single League Worthy)
Rafael Betancourt, Free Agent
Betancourt was working his way back from Tommy John surgery late last season, and the results weren’t great. However, we only have to evaluate the words of Rockies manager Walt Weiss to see the upside if he returns to Colorado. Betancourt has significant closing experience, and the Rockies have had no qualms about using 40 year olds at closer, as they’re doing now with LaTroy Hawkins. If this marriage between Betancourt and the Rockies does resume, Betancourt becomes a deep sleeper for saves behind Hawkins.
Kyuji Fujikawa, Rangers
The Cubs showed confidence in Fujikawa’s ability after signing the former Japanese League closer to a two-year deal worth nearly eight figures. Unfortunately, Fujikawa tore his elbow ligament very early in his Cubs career and was unable to fulfill his promise with the team. Texas signed him to a reasonable one-year deal recently, adding some closing experience behind Neftali Feliz. Feliz regained the closing duties after Joakim Soria was traded in July, but his 1.99 ERA wasn’t representative of his poor peripherals. Feliz had a mediocre 6.0 K/9 and showed velocity nowhere near what it was early in his career. If the Rangers don’t address their closer situation further, Fujikawa could be ripe to challenge with 220 career saves and a 1.77 ERA across the Pacific.
John Holdzkom, Pirates
This is by no means a knock on Mark Melancon, who has emerged as one of the elite closers in the game over the last year. However, Holdzkom shows some real closing potential with a mid-90’s fastball that has been difficult for hitters to pick up since Pittsburgh added him from the Independent Leagues last season. Holdzkom almost throws the fastball exclusively, which is rarely a recipe for success. However, he showed drastic control improvement last season and held his success with a 2.00 ERA and 14/2 K/BB in nine innings with the Pirates. Even if Melancon doesn’t go down, Holdzkom could turn into a solid reliever for NL-only owners if the fastball remains deceptive.
Matt Stites, Diamondbacks
Much of Stites’ support came from the old Diamondbacks front office regime, but it would be foolish to overlook his potential. The sub-six foot reliever struggled with his command during his rookie season, but showed as an accomplished reliever in the minors. He had a career 1.76 ERA in 163.1 innings, with an outstanding 6.18 K/BB ratio. His velocity hasn’t gone anywhere, averaging nearly 96 mph on his fastball with Arizona last season. Stites also has closing experience in the minors, with 47 saves. Addison Reed hasn’t exactly been the most reliable closer during his major league career, posting an ERA above 4.00 last season as a result of 11 home runs allowed. If Stites is able to establish himself early this season, he will become a fine sleeper for saves.
The following is Week 7 of the 10-part series of sleepers for each 5×5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Now that we are onto the categories that are more playing time and opportunity based, I’ll mention more names for you to stow away as you prepare for your drafts. With offseason movement still rampant, the opportunity for many of these players is still very much to be determined.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category.
Saves are one of the most frustrating categories for fantasy owners because we are at the mercy of major league managers. Much of the fun in fantasy preparation is forecasting based on indicators, talent, and predictable skill, yet saves are just as much about opportunity and being in the right place at the right time. One slump at the wrong time (Sergio Romo) can mean losing a job, while being at the right place at the right time (Jake Petricka) can “earn” a pitcher the job.
Below is a rundown of the obvious saves sleepers heading into 2015 – mostly pitchers with a history of closing and at least a fair probability of getting a significant opportunity to close at some point this season. Also, there are a few less obvious picks to keep an eye on. Despite our best efforts to predict, there will surely be a few new closers crowned in 2015 that no one expected. That makes the strategy of dumping saves seem that much more attractive.
The Obvious (Mixed League Worthy)
Tyler Clippard, Nationals
Clippard has been mentioned in trade rumors, but as it stands at the time of this writing he’s Drew Storen’s handcuff. He’s proven that he can handle closing after converting 32 saves in 2012, and has been quite the workhorse for the Nats since 2010. Storen was spectacular last season as a setup man, but he’s had some struggles in the past and has a less closer-worthy 8.2 K/9 for his career. Clippard is an obvious add behind Storen if he doesn’t become the closer for another team before Opening Day.
Wade Davis, Royals
Davis is in a similar situation to Clippard, with his name in trade rumors. The Royals had one of the top pens in the game last season, and it stands to get even better with Luke Hochevar returning from Tommy John surgery. For his purposes, Davis was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last season with a 1.00 ERA and 13.6 K/9. It would probably take a Greg Holland injury for Davis to find saves in KC, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Royals sell high on him in the coming weeks with another team crowning Davis their closer.
Danny Farquhar, Mariners
The Mariners signed Fernando Rodney to a two-year contract last offseason to replace Farquhar at closer, and got their money’s worth with an AL-leading 48 saves from him. The final stats also reflect a strong pitcher, though there is some reason for concern. Rodney saw his average fastball increase above 96 mph while with Tampa in 2012-13, a major reason for his success. Last season the fastball declined below 95 mph, and it shouldn’t be expected to rebound with Rodney going on age 38. While we shouldn’t get too carried away yet, Farquhar is a smart add in this situation.
Ken Giles, Phillies
Giles showed all he needed last season to gain respect as Philadelphia’s closer of the future, posting a 1.18 ERA and 5.82 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings. Unfortunately, Giles sits behind the overpaid Jonathan Papelbon, but the start of the organization’s firesale would seem to put Papelbon squarely in the crosshairs if someone is willing to take on his contract. Certainly a situation worth watching.
Jason Motte, Cubs
Motte provides some closing experience to the Cubs bullpen behind Hector Rondon. Rondon did a nice job in his first season as the team’s closer, with a 2.42 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning. Motte, on the other hand, struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery with a 4.68 ERA and poor 6.1 K/9. The difference was clearly his lack of velocity. Motte has been almost a one-pitch pitcher for his career, but lost nearly three mph on his fastball in his return. That said, the Cubs are clearly betting on Motte’s rebound after signing him for $4.5 million, and he has the most closing experience in the team’s pen should Rondon struggle or get hurt.
Bobby Parnell, Mets
Parnell made only one appearance and tore his elbow ligament last season. He has a chance to start the season on time following Tommy John surgery, though we’re more likely to see him in May or June. Regardless, the Mets will give Parnell some time to work his way back, but some save opportunities during the second half are a fair possibility. The Mets haven’t officially settled on Jenrry Mejia as a reliever in the long term, and his history of elbow injuries doesn’t make him the safest closer. Parnell’s closing experience, with 36 career saves, certainly makes him a strong handcuff when he returns.
Joakim Soria, Tigers
I don’t think it’s at all controversial to project more saves for Soria than Joe Nathan in 2015. There are major questions surrounding Nathan after a terrible 2014 season in which he posted a 4.81 ERA and K/BB ratio below 2.00. Nathan has lost significant velocity over the last two seasons, and turned 40 in November. Yet, the Tigers are at least going into spring training with Nathan as their closer after signing him to a two-year, $20 million contract last offseason. Still, it’s no coincidence that they traded for Soria last July, a pitcher with 178 career saves. Soria didn’t pitch particularly well during his stint with the Tigers, but his full season was good with an awesome 1.2 BB/9 and more than one strikeout per inning. His pinpoint control has allowed him to succeed after Tommy John surgery despite slightly less velocity, and makes him a terrific fallback if Nathan struggles again. The Tigers are still in win-now mode, and manager Brad Ausmus can only exercise so much more patience in a highly competitive AL Central division.
Jordan Walden, Cardinals
The Cardinals added a pitcher with closing experience in Walden, who will try to fill the shoes of Pat Neshek and Jason Motte. St. Louis closer Trevor Rosenthal faced some serious hiccups last season, especially late in the year. Rosenthal had a dire 5.4 BB/9 and 1.41 WHIP, and manager Mike Matheny seemed to lose confidence in him at times during the second half. Walden hasn’t been a regular closer since 2011 with the Angels, but he did fill-in well for Craig Kimbrel in his brief opportunities last season. Walden has also had his share of control issues during his career, but he has a dominant 10.8 K/9 and has never posted an ERA worse than 3.46. If Rosenthal is unable to work out his control issues, Walden would be a smart addition.
The Less Obvious (Single League Worthy)
Rafael Betancourt, Free Agent
Betancourt was working his way back from Tommy John surgery late last season, and the results weren’t great. However, we only have to evaluate the words of Rockies manager Walt Weiss to see the upside if he returns to Colorado. Betancourt has significant closing experience, and the Rockies have had no qualms about using 40 year olds at closer, as they’re doing now with LaTroy Hawkins. If this marriage between Betancourt and the Rockies does resume, Betancourt becomes a deep sleeper for saves behind Hawkins.
Kyuji Fujikawa, Rangers
The Cubs showed confidence in Fujikawa’s ability after signing the former Japanese League closer to a two-year deal worth nearly eight figures. Unfortunately, Fujikawa tore his elbow ligament very early in his Cubs career and was unable to fulfill his promise with the team. Texas signed him to a reasonable one-year deal recently, adding some closing experience behind Neftali Feliz. Feliz regained the closing duties after Joakim Soria was traded in July, but his 1.99 ERA wasn’t representative of his poor peripherals. Feliz had a mediocre 6.0 K/9 and showed velocity nowhere near what it was early in his career. If the Rangers don’t address their closer situation further, Fujikawa could be ripe to challenge with 220 career saves and a 1.77 ERA across the Pacific.
John Holdzkom, Pirates
This is by no means a knock on Mark Melancon, who has emerged as one of the elite closers in the game over the last year. However, Holdzkom shows some real closing potential with a mid-90’s fastball that has been difficult for hitters to pick up since Pittsburgh added him from the Independent Leagues last season. Holdzkom almost throws the fastball exclusively, which is rarely a recipe for success. However, he showed drastic control improvement last season and held his success with a 2.00 ERA and 14/2 K/BB in nine innings with the Pirates. Even if Melancon doesn’t go down, Holdzkom could turn into a solid reliever for NL-only owners if the fastball remains deceptive.
Matt Stites, Diamondbacks
Much of Stites’ support came from the old Diamondbacks front office regime, but it would be foolish to overlook his potential. The sub-six foot reliever struggled with his command during his rookie season, but showed as an accomplished reliever in the minors. He had a career 1.76 ERA in 163.1 innings, with an outstanding 6.18 K/BB ratio. His velocity hasn’t gone anywhere, averaging nearly 96 mph on his fastball with Arizona last season. Stites also has closing experience in the minors, with 47 saves. Addison Reed hasn’t exactly been the most reliable closer during his major league career, posting an ERA above 4.00 last season as a result of 11 home runs allowed. If Stites is able to establish himself early this season, he will become a fine sleeper for saves.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
