Around the League: Players to Avoid: NL Central
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division. Now we turn our attention to players on the opposite end of the spectrum, what we call players to avoid. It’s important to note that we don’t mean “avoid” in the literal sense — all the players will likely be drafted in standard fantasy leagues next year. Rather, we mean that, for whatever reason, their value next year will likely fall short of their cost on draft day. The National League East has been covered, and now it’s time to move on to the NL Central…
The fantasy season is over, but baseball never stops. For all the latest news and notes around the league, keep refreshing Rotoworld’s player news page and also be sure to follow @Rotoworld_BB and @RyanPBoyer on Twitter.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
After playing 162 games in 2013, Votto participated in exactly 100 fewer contests in 2014, as he was plagued by a distal quad strain near his left knee. Even when healthy the former National League MVP wasn’t himself at the plate, getting on base at a nice .390 clip but hitting just .255 with six homers across 272 plate appearances. Votto reportedly has progressed nicely this offseason and is expected to enter spring training at 100 percent, but there are still reasons to worry going forward.
What concerns me most about Votto is that his power just hasn’t been the same since his knee issues first cropped up in the second half of the 2012 season. Before his leg problems, Votto homered once every 22.2 plate appearances. Since then, he’s only gone deep once every 36.8 plate appearances. He’s also seen a drop-off in doubles, going from one every 15.7 plate appearance pre-leg issues to one every 20.5 plate appearance post-leg issues. The pop just hasn’t been there without his legs at full strength. Even if Votto should stay off the disabled list in 2015, which is far from a given considering the number of setbacks he’s had, the homers and RBI could still be down. You need to pass on him if your fellow owners are still considering him among the elite options at first base.
Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
On the surface, it looked like Lynn had a breakout 2014 season, as the big right-hander put up a career-best 2.74 ERA over a career-high 203 2/3 innings. However, when you dig a little deeper it simply doesn’t look like an ERA that’s likely to be repeated next season.
Lynn’s strikeout percentage last season was down (20.9%), his HR/FB percentage was down (6.1%), his BABIP was down (.290) and his strand rate was up (78.1%). The righty was also suddenly able to cure his career-long issues with left-handed batters, holding them to a pedestrian .244/.325/.372 line even though he didn’t really alter his pitch mix that much. Will all of these numbers return to closer to his career marks? Maybe not, but some surely will. In fairness, Lynn’s ERA from 2012-13 (3.88) probably should have been better considering his FIP (3.38). But his ERA in 2014 should have been worse and will probably wind up closer to the mid-3.00s in 2015.
Josh Harrison, 3B/OF, Pirates
From 2011-13, Harrison was a utility player for the Pirates who was shuttled back-and-forth between the majors and minors. He began the 2014 season in the same role but by the end of it was an All-Star, a top-10 National League MVP vote-getter and near-batting title champ. It was no doubt an impressive burst onto the scene, but expectations for Harrison in 2015 need to be kept in check.
Harrison was consistently a .300 hitter in the minors, but in his first three seasons in Pittsburgh he hit just .250 with a lowly .282 on-base percentage. Aided by a .353 BABIP, those numbers jumped to .315 and .347, respectively, last season even though Harrison’s strikeout percentage (14.7%) went up and his walk percentage (4.0%) remained horrid. He’ll have a chance to hit for a decent average if he can keep his line-drive percentage up (24.0%), but we’re almost certainly going to see a big correction in the average department. Also likely to drop is Harrison’s home run total, as his 13 bombs in 2014 nearly doubled his previous professional high.
Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, Reds
Those who invested in Frazier in drafts last spring turned a nice profit. After a disappointing 2013 campaign that saw his average tumble to .234, Frazier commonly wasn’t even drafted as a starting third baseman in 2014. The 28-year-old then went on to be the third-best fantasy third baseman and 15th-best fantasy hitter overall last season, compiling career-highs across the board with 29 homers, 80 RBI, 88 runs scored and a surprising 20 stolen bases.
Unfortunately, the 2014 season was almost certainly Frazier’s fantasy peak. The 20 stolen bases scream “fluke,” as Frazier totaled just 10 pilfers in his first 319 games at the big league level. He’s not a fast runner, and pitchers were already starting to pay more attention to Frazier on the bases late last season, with just six of his steals coming after the All-Star break. Expecting double-digit thefts in 2015 is probably optimistic. Frazier’s average could also fall back in 2015, as his .309 BABIP in 2014 was significantly higher than his career mark (.294) and he is coming off a career-high 139 strikeouts.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Brewers
Gennett made a terrific first impression with the Brewers in 2013 with a .324 batting mark over 69 games, and he won the primary second base job over veteran Rickie Weeks heading into the 2014 campaign. The success from his rookie season carried over into the first half last year, as Gennett sported a nifty .309/.346/.482 batting line while popping a surprising seven homers. That’s when things turned sour, with the 24-year-old hitting just .253/.273/.348 after the All-Star break with an ugly 22/5 K/BB ratio.
The Milwaukee second baseman has hit for average consistently in the minors and boasts an even .300 batting mark over his first 704 major league plate appearances. However, what he hasn’t been able to do is hit left-handed pitching, as Gennett is hitting a woeful .128/.150/.141 versus southpaws in the majors. His .259/.294/.349 line against lefties in the minors is much better but certainly isn’t good enough to suggest he’ll be competent when facing them in the majors. That hasn’t deterred the Brewers from naming Gennett the everyday second baseman following Weeks’ departure. Getting more starts should help Gennett’s counting stats a bit, but his average could take a hit with him matching up more against portsiders. That’s bad news for a guy who’s largely a one-category fantasy contributor.
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs
Hendricks earned a promotion to the majors last July after putting up a 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 97/23 K/BB ratio in 102 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. The 25-year-old surrendered four runs over six innings in his major league debut but then didn’t allow more than two runs across any of his next nine outings, ultimately finishing the season with a sparkling 2.46 ERA over 13 starts.
The former eighth-round pick has a strong minor league track record, having posted a 2.69 ERA and 386/81 K/BB ratio over 452 1/3 innings. Hendricks gets by more on guile than stuff, however, as he compiled just 47 strikeouts over his 80 1/3 big league frames and his fastball sits in the high-80s. The righty has done a good job at limiting his walks and home run balls both in the majors in minors, so that gives him a shot to be successful in the majors. Hendricks’ profile is more of a back-end starter, though, so be careful not to get wooed by the shiny ERA and invest too much.
Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
Jay looked like the Cardinals’ fourth outfielder heading into the 2014 season, but Peter Bourjos got off to a slow start at the plate and Jay ran away with the center field job. The former second-round pick was particularly strong in the second half as the Cards pushed their way to another National League Central title, batting .323/.406/.392 with a 134 OPS+.
While Jay figures to continue to be a useful player for the Cardinals, I don’t find him terribly appealing for fantasy purposes, particularly if his nice 2014 season pushes his price too high. Jay’s power continues to wane, as he’s posted two straight sub-.380 slugging percentages the last two seasons and had a career-low three longballs in 2014. He’s also seen his stolen base total drop from 19 to 10 to six over the last three years. Also worrisome about Jay is his likely return to earth versus left-handed pitching. After sporting a sub-.700 OPS against southpaws in 2012 and 2013, Jay crushed them in 2014 to the tune of a .375/.404/.455 batting line. With Jay likely situated towards the bottom of the batting order in 2015, he’s looking like a one-category performer who’s barely mixed league worthy.
We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division. Now we turn our attention to players on the opposite end of the spectrum, what we call players to avoid. It’s important to note that we don’t mean “avoid” in the literal sense — all the players will likely be drafted in standard fantasy leagues next year. Rather, we mean that, for whatever reason, their value next year will likely fall short of their cost on draft day. The National League East has been covered, and now it’s time to move on to the NL Central…
The fantasy season is over, but baseball never stops. For all the latest news and notes around the league, keep refreshing Rotoworld’s player news page and also be sure to follow @Rotoworld_BB and @RyanPBoyer on Twitter.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
After playing 162 games in 2013, Votto participated in exactly 100 fewer contests in 2014, as he was plagued by a distal quad strain near his left knee. Even when healthy the former National League MVP wasn’t himself at the plate, getting on base at a nice .390 clip but hitting just .255 with six homers across 272 plate appearances. Votto reportedly has progressed nicely this offseason and is expected to enter spring training at 100 percent, but there are still reasons to worry going forward.
What concerns me most about Votto is that his power just hasn’t been the same since his knee issues first cropped up in the second half of the 2012 season. Before his leg problems, Votto homered once every 22.2 plate appearances. Since then, he’s only gone deep once every 36.8 plate appearances. He’s also seen a drop-off in doubles, going from one every 15.7 plate appearance pre-leg issues to one every 20.5 plate appearance post-leg issues. The pop just hasn’t been there without his legs at full strength. Even if Votto should stay off the disabled list in 2015, which is far from a given considering the number of setbacks he’s had, the homers and RBI could still be down. You need to pass on him if your fellow owners are still considering him among the elite options at first base.
Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
On the surface, it looked like Lynn had a breakout 2014 season, as the big right-hander put up a career-best 2.74 ERA over a career-high 203 2/3 innings. However, when you dig a little deeper it simply doesn’t look like an ERA that’s likely to be repeated next season.
Lynn’s strikeout percentage last season was down (20.9%), his HR/FB percentage was down (6.1%), his BABIP was down (.290) and his strand rate was up (78.1%). The righty was also suddenly able to cure his career-long issues with left-handed batters, holding them to a pedestrian .244/.325/.372 line even though he didn’t really alter his pitch mix that much. Will all of these numbers return to closer to his career marks? Maybe not, but some surely will. In fairness, Lynn’s ERA from 2012-13 (3.88) probably should have been better considering his FIP (3.38). But his ERA in 2014 should have been worse and will probably wind up closer to the mid-3.00s in 2015.
Josh Harrison, 3B/OF, Pirates
From 2011-13, Harrison was a utility player for the Pirates who was shuttled back-and-forth between the majors and minors. He began the 2014 season in the same role but by the end of it was an All-Star, a top-10 National League MVP vote-getter and near-batting title champ. It was no doubt an impressive burst onto the scene, but expectations for Harrison in 2015 need to be kept in check.
Harrison was consistently a .300 hitter in the minors, but in his first three seasons in Pittsburgh he hit just .250 with a lowly .282 on-base percentage. Aided by a .353 BABIP, those numbers jumped to .315 and .347, respectively, last season even though Harrison’s strikeout percentage (14.7%) went up and his walk percentage (4.0%) remained horrid. He’ll have a chance to hit for a decent average if he can keep his line-drive percentage up (24.0%), but we’re almost certainly going to see a big correction in the average department. Also likely to drop is Harrison’s home run total, as his 13 bombs in 2014 nearly doubled his previous professional high.
Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, Reds
Those who invested in Frazier in drafts last spring turned a nice profit. After a disappointing 2013 campaign that saw his average tumble to .234, Frazier commonly wasn’t even drafted as a starting third baseman in 2014. The 28-year-old then went on to be the third-best fantasy third baseman and 15th-best fantasy hitter overall last season, compiling career-highs across the board with 29 homers, 80 RBI, 88 runs scored and a surprising 20 stolen bases.
Unfortunately, the 2014 season was almost certainly Frazier’s fantasy peak. The 20 stolen bases scream “fluke,” as Frazier totaled just 10 pilfers in his first 319 games at the big league level. He’s not a fast runner, and pitchers were already starting to pay more attention to Frazier on the bases late last season, with just six of his steals coming after the All-Star break. Expecting double-digit thefts in 2015 is probably optimistic. Frazier’s average could also fall back in 2015, as his .309 BABIP in 2014 was significantly higher than his career mark (.294) and he is coming off a career-high 139 strikeouts.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Brewers
Gennett made a terrific first impression with the Brewers in 2013 with a .324 batting mark over 69 games, and he won the primary second base job over veteran Rickie Weeks heading into the 2014 campaign. The success from his rookie season carried over into the first half last year, as Gennett sported a nifty .309/.346/.482 batting line while popping a surprising seven homers. That’s when things turned sour, with the 24-year-old hitting just .253/.273/.348 after the All-Star break with an ugly 22/5 K/BB ratio.
The Milwaukee second baseman has hit for average consistently in the minors and boasts an even .300 batting mark over his first 704 major league plate appearances. However, what he hasn’t been able to do is hit left-handed pitching, as Gennett is hitting a woeful .128/.150/.141 versus southpaws in the majors. His .259/.294/.349 line against lefties in the minors is much better but certainly isn’t good enough to suggest he’ll be competent when facing them in the majors. That hasn’t deterred the Brewers from naming Gennett the everyday second baseman following Weeks’ departure. Getting more starts should help Gennett’s counting stats a bit, but his average could take a hit with him matching up more against portsiders. That’s bad news for a guy who’s largely a one-category fantasy contributor.
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs
Hendricks earned a promotion to the majors last July after putting up a 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 97/23 K/BB ratio in 102 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. The 25-year-old surrendered four runs over six innings in his major league debut but then didn’t allow more than two runs across any of his next nine outings, ultimately finishing the season with a sparkling 2.46 ERA over 13 starts.
The former eighth-round pick has a strong minor league track record, having posted a 2.69 ERA and 386/81 K/BB ratio over 452 1/3 innings. Hendricks gets by more on guile than stuff, however, as he compiled just 47 strikeouts over his 80 1/3 big league frames and his fastball sits in the high-80s. The righty has done a good job at limiting his walks and home run balls both in the majors in minors, so that gives him a shot to be successful in the majors. Hendricks’ profile is more of a back-end starter, though, so be careful not to get wooed by the shiny ERA and invest too much.
Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
Jay looked like the Cardinals’ fourth outfielder heading into the 2014 season, but Peter Bourjos got off to a slow start at the plate and Jay ran away with the center field job. The former second-round pick was particularly strong in the second half as the Cards pushed their way to another National League Central title, batting .323/.406/.392 with a 134 OPS+.
While Jay figures to continue to be a useful player for the Cardinals, I don’t find him terribly appealing for fantasy purposes, particularly if his nice 2014 season pushes his price too high. Jay’s power continues to wane, as he’s posted two straight sub-.380 slugging percentages the last two seasons and had a career-low three longballs in 2014. He’s also seen his stolen base total drop from 19 to 10 to six over the last three years. Also worrisome about Jay is his likely return to earth versus left-handed pitching. After sporting a sub-.700 OPS against southpaws in 2012 and 2013, Jay crushed them in 2014 to the tune of a .375/.404/.455 batting line. With Jay likely situated towards the bottom of the batting order in 2015, he’s looking like a one-category performer who’s barely mixed league worthy.
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