NFL against the spread picks: The most disrespected 11-3 team

NFL against the spread picks: The most disrespected 11-3 team – Yahoo Sports (blog)

Another quarterback injury has changed the perception of the Arizona Cardinals again, at least in the betting line.

The Cardinals are the biggest underdogs ever for an 11-3 team, going back to when it was first tracked in 1980, according to OddsShark.com. Arizona is an eight-point underdog to the Seattle Seahawks, according to Yahoo Pro Football Pick ’em lines. They’re a huge underdog even though they’re at home. There haven’t been too many teams that have been exactly 11-3, and even fewer that have been underdogs at all, so the sample size isn’t tremendous, but the line is telling.

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Nobody expects the Cardinals to win with third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley against a Seahawks’ pass defense that has been stifling the past few weeks. Never put anything past the Cardinals, who have overcome numerous injuries to already clinch a playoff berth, but this task seems to be a bit much. And with a win, the Seahawks would pull even with the Cardinals and clinch the tiebreaker, so they’d have the inside track for the NFC West title.

All these injuries are not really fair for the Cardinals. No team is fully healthy this time of the NFL season, but the Cardinals’ plight has been tougher than most. That won’t matter to the Seahawks, who are trying to repeat as Super Bowl champions. And I can’t pick Lindley and the Cardinals either. If Bruce Arians can muster enough points with a quarterback who has a 46.8 career rating to beat the Seahawks, he’s an even better coach that we realize.

It’s unfortunate for the Cardinals that they have to play such a big game so shorthanded, but the NFL isn’t always fair.

Here are the rest of the Week 16 picks:

Jaguars (-3.5) over Titans (picked Thursday): Moving on.

Redskins (+7.5) over Eagles: Seems like a letdown spot after such a big game for Philadelphia last week, though the Eagles might be focused coming off a loss. Either way, it’s nice to have Saturday NFL football back.

49ers (-1) over Chargers: The Chargers’ offensive explosion at Baltimore seems to be an outlier. It doesn’t surprise me at all to hear that Philip Rivers is dealing with injuries. He doesn’t look right lately and neither does San Diego.

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Jay Cutler and Marc Trestman (USA Today Sports Images)

Bears (+9) over Lions: Maybe foolish but I have a feeling the Bears actually try to rally a bit around Jimmy Clausen. Either that or they totally roll over for Marc Trestman. Either way.

Vikings (+6.5) over Dolphins: The Vikings have covered seven of their last eight, according to OddsShark. They’re undervalued here, too.

Falcons (+6) over Saints: Not sure why I’d take the Saints laying this many points, considering how poorly they’ve played most of the second half of this season.

Patriots (-10) over Jets: I hate double-digit favorites in the NFL, and the Jets will play the Patriots hard, but the disparity between the two teams is ridiculous.

Steelers (-3) over Chiefs: I know that just when I start to trust the Steelers they’ll pull the rug out from under me, but here goes anyway.

Buccaneers (+10.5) over Packers: I think an angry Aaron Rodgers could put up pinball numbers, but I also don’t need to be taking two double-digit road favorites in one week.

Panthers (-3) over Browns: After what we saw from Johnny Manziel last week, I can’t pick the Browns.

Ravens (-5) over Texans: Sorry, not picking Case Keenum over the Ravens.

Rams (-5.5) over Giants: Maybe the Rams can finally slow down the Odell Beckham train.

Cowboys (-3) over Colts: I’m not sure I get this line. The Colts have nothing to play for, really. Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton probably won’t play, it appears. Sure, DeMarco Murray will be limited at best with a broken left hand, but I’m only giving a field goal to take a good team that probably needs to win if it wants to win a division title? Dallas is 10-2 in games Tony Romo hasn’t been hurt and they’re facing a team that has nothing tangible to play for. What am I missing here?

Raiders (+5.5) over Bills: The Raiders have been surprisingly feisty at home lately.

Broncos (-3) over Bengals: The Broncos keep grinding out wins, and I’ve seen too much of Bad Andy Dalton lately to go Cincinnati. The only concern is motivation, because I think at some point the Broncos are going to realize that no matter what they do the rest of the way, the AFC is going through Foxboro.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season to date: 113-108-2

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab

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