NFL Winners and Losers: The drop that might change the season
Jordy Nelson is one of the best receivers in the NFL. You could make a decent argument he is the best.
Green Bay wouldn’t be 10-4 and in first place without Nelson. He’s a tremendous player. But what might remain in the back of our minds for the rest of this NFL season was the catch Nelson didn’t make. It might have changed the Packers’ path this season, and that can change the entire NFL playoff picture.
According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Nelson had pointed out on the sideline during Green Bay’s game at Buffalo that a slant-and-go route against the Bills’ “quarters” zone coverage would be open. Was it ever.
Late in the third quarter, with the Packers trailing 16-10 and backed up at their own 6-yard line, Nelson ran the route to perfection. And how many times have we seen Nelson break down that far sideline for a long touchdown? Aaron Rodgers threw the ball to him and started skipping around the end zone. Because it was a great throw, and Nelson never drops that pass.
This time, he did.
“I short-armed it and dropped it,” Nelson said, according to the Journal Sentinel. “It’s pretty easy to see.”
It likely would have been a 94-yard touchdown. Buffalo safety Duke Williams would have had a shot to tackle him, but Nelson is really tough to bring down in the open field. A touchdown would have given the Packers the lead. Instead, they lost 21-13, with the Bills getting a late safety for the final points of the game. The entire game is different if Nelson catches that pass. Maybe the Packers would have lost anyway, but clearly Green Bay’s probability of winning would have been much higher with the 94-yard score there.
The loss might change everything for the Packers.
They’re tied in the NFC North, after the Lions won. The division was probably coming down to Detroit’s trip to Lambeau Field in Week 17 whether the Packers won or lost at Buffalo, so even more important to Green Bay might be how the loss affects its shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed. With Seattle, Arizona and either Philadelphia or Dallas winning in Week 15, the Packers’ loss might cost them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs – and they might have the best home-field advantage in the NFL. The Packers with the No. 1 seed would be a heavy favorite to advance to the Super Bowl. But Seattle is now tied with the Packers (and Seattle beat Green Bay and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker) and the Cardinals are a game ahead. The Packers aren’t even assured of getting a playoff spot in the NFC if they lose to the Lions in a couple weeks. An 11-5 record might not be good enough to make it.
And unless the Packers win out and get some help to nab the No. 1 seed, or get to the Super Bowl without having a bye or home-field advantage, we’ll remember Nelson’s drop. It might not be fair for a player with 83 catches to have such a glaring light be shined on one miscue. But that’s how important it might end up being for the Packers, and for the many other teams that could be affected by their loss too. Think about it, what if Arizona or Seattle get the No. 1 seed because the Packers lost on Sunday, and ride that to the Super Bowl?
“You have to show up every week and we didn’t show up today. Some of us didn’t,” Nelson said, according to the Journal Sentinel. “The offensive line and running backs played extremely well. But I didn’t do my part at all.”
Here are the rest of the winners and losers from Week 15:
WINNERS
Peyton Manning’s toughness: Manning isn’t playing at an MVP level lately, but he had a great excuse on Sunday.
Manning had flu-like symptoms on Saturday, and needed to get intravenous fluids four times, he said. Then late in the first half, he suffered a thigh injury making an ill-advised block.
No matter. Manning did enough, completing 14-of-20 passes for 233 yards and a huge second-half touchdown to Demaryius Thomas to help beat the San Diego Chargers 22-10 and win the AFC West. It wasn’t a vintage high-scoring Manning performance, but it was really impressive given the circumstances.
The Broncos defense deserves a lot of credit. It has played very well lately, and stifled the Chargers. The Broncos have morphed into a running team the past few weeks, and that’s a big reason they have won four in a row. But don’t forget Manning, who battled all day on Sunday.
#JJforMVP: Every week that passes, we’re presented with more evidence that Houston Texans defense end J.J. Watt should win the NFL’s MVP award.
Watt had two sacks, five tackles including two for loss, two other quarterback hits and a pass batted down. He even took time out to give a hug to a 15-year-old fan before the game. Pretty full day.
Anyone who argues the Texans’ record as a reason Watt shouldn’t win MVP isn’t paying enough attention. Houston lost quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and couldn’t even get to 300 yards of offense. The only reason the Texans were even in the game is because the defense did a great job against the Colts’ explosive offense, and there’s no question who leads that Texans defense. To penalize Watt because the team around him isn’t good is absolutely illogical. He’s not the reason Houston lost 17-10 on Sunday.
With Rodgers having the worst game of his career (it was the worst quarterback rating he has had in any start), Watt should move to the front of the MVP line with two weeks to go. Denying him just because he doesn’t play quarterback would be a mistake.
Jonas Gray: Well, look who came out of the doghouse on Sunday.
Gray, the star of New England’s win at Indianapolis and Sports Illustrated cover boy, earned the wrath of Bill Belichick for showing up late to meetings the week after the Colts game, and he had three carries in the three games that followed. He was back on Sunday, running 11 times for 62 yards, all in the second half. LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen had just 14 carries combined. Gray ran very hard, like a back who was thrilled to just get another shot and didn’t want to blow it. Maybe that was part of Belichick’s plan all along. Now it appears the Patriots have yet another option on offense. They’re going to be really hard to beat the rest of the year.
AFC North: Other than the immense struggles of Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns, the AFC North had a heck of a day. If the season ended today, the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens would make up half of the AFC playoff field.
The Bengals, despite Andy Dalton’s own struggles, beat the Browns pretty easily to stay in first place. The Ravens and Steelers got some separation in a crowded wild-card race. Baltimore beat Jacksonville in a tougher-than-expected game against Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh beat Atlanta. The Ravens and Steelers are each 9-5.
The Chargers, Chiefs and Bills are still lingering at 8-6, but the AFC North took a big step toward filling up the AFC playoff field.
Buffalo Bills defense: In today’s NFL, the idea that a defense could hold Manning and Rodgers each without a touchdown in consecutive weeks sounds crazy. Except that the Bills did it.
Buffalo is not dead yet in the playoff race, thanks to Sunday’s upset of Green Bay. The defense is the reason. They hounded Rodgers into a 34.3 quarterback rating, the worst rating in any start of his career. The Bills are a game back in the AFC wild-card race, although their 5-6 conference record wouldn’t help if it came down to tiebreakers. The Bills play at Oakland and then finish the season at New England, so they might need to shut down Tom Brady in the regular-season finale to have a shot at the playoffs. But hey, if they can shut down Manning and Rodgers, you can’t rule it out.
LOSERS
Jets vs. Titans: Who said this game wouldn’t be historic? It ended with a 16-11 score, the first time in NFL history that has happened according to CBS. How special.
The game itself was entirely forgettable. Titans quarterback Jake Locker suffered yet another injury that knocked him out of a game. Jets quarterback Geno Smith took a safety on an intentional grounding penalty. The Titans nearly had a remarkable lateral-filled play on the final play of the game, but Delanie Walker was tackled at the 9-yard line when he should have lateraled one more time.
This game wasn’t pretty.
This was also the rare game in which the fans of each team were rooting against their own team (or should have been). The Jets really screwed up by winning – they might have cost themselves a chance at Oregon quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota (Eric Edholm has the draft order breakdown here).
The Jets couldn’t even Suck for the Duck correctly.
Anyone getting in front of a (ticked) off Tom Brady: Brady wasn’t much of a runner even as a young man, and at 37 years old you’d think self preservation would be his biggest priority.
But when Brady took off for a 17-yard run on third and 11 on Sunday, he wasn’t interested in sliding. He dropped his shoulder and pounded into Dolphins defensive back Walt Aikens, getting knocked out of bounds but firing up the Patriots.
The offense hadn’t been playing well to that point, so Brady wasn’t giving himself up.
“I think it was a play we needed to make so it was good to make it at the time,” Brady said, according to the Boston Herald. “I was going to slide, but I was pretty (ticked) off at that time, so I figured I wouldn’t slide.”
Belichick doesn’t want to see his quarterback do that all the time, but it worked. It sparked the Patriots to a division-clinching 41-13 win. It was a really fun play by one of the league’s best competitors.
The 49ers-Seahawks rivalry: It was kind of sad that the 49ers-Seahawks game was a bit of an afterthought on a busy Sunday.
This San Francisco team is nothing like Jim Harbaugh’s first three 49ers squads. It is now officially eliminated from the playoffs after a 17-7 loss at Seattle. It was the same hard-hitting affair – the 49ers lost running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to injuries, so fullback Bruce Miller had to play some tailback – but the stakes weren’t as high. It was just the Seahawks, who along with the Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, getting a win it needed as it tries to win the NFC West.
With Harbaugh probably on the way out after the season, the rivalry will continue to change. It might never be as hot as it was the last couple seasons before this one. That’s too bad.
This list of fantasy players: If you were in the semifinals of your fantasy playoffs, it’s likely one or more of these players helped get you there – Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Manning, Nelson, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith, T.Y. Hilton or Sammy Watkins. All of those players were well under their season averages on Sunday, in a strangely quiet week for many of the league’s stars.
So if you had some combination of those players, good luck next year. Unless Odell Beckham bailed you out, of course.
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
