Death taxes, and me picking 42 percent winners. You can set your watch to it.

This week I’m off to a blazing 1-0 start after banking on the Cowboys to manhandle the Bears. For a brief, fleeting moment it looked like the Bears might just have enough heart in them to come back in the fourth quarter after most of America had already changed channels to find themselves loudly wondering if having a girl star as Peter Pan is ruining America’s normally hyper-masculine musical theatre culture.

I’m not buying the notion that the Cowboys will collapse again just because of the time of year it is. In the NFL past performance is not indicative of future results. With all the turnover in the NFL, you would have to be a bonehead to think that a team’s December record from three years ago has anything to do with weeks 14-17 in 2014.

St. Louis -2 over WASHINGTON

Tickets for this game are going for as low as $3 on Stubhub, and Washington is trying to unload a couple thousand “returned” tickets for face value. This is not going to be much of a homefield advantage.

This game is like when you take a crazy girlfriend on a date and you run into her ex. You see the guy from across the room and you think it might be awkward, but he’s really glad to see you. More than anything he’s psyched that his ex found someone else so now she can move on, and stop keying his car and sending Facebook messages to his fiancee. Anyhow, Jim Haslett is the ex-girlfriend in this protracted analogy and he is somehow still gainfully employed as a defensive coordinator in the highest levels of professional football. Bet against this man.

New York Giants -1 over TENNESSEE

This is a particularly bad group of matchups in the early games, but this one might be the worst. The Giants are on a seven-game losing streak, and the Titans have lost their last six. Personally, I think that the Giants are a much better bad team than the Titans.

Baltimore +3 over MIAMI

Memo to every person who walks away from a betting window in Vegas after having dropped a couple hundred on the Ravens — they’re going to be laughing at you. Seventy percent of ESPN’s streak for the cash players — the very definition of squares — are on the Ravens’ side here. There’s nothing wrong with being a normal, chumpy square. In the immortal words of Nappy Roots, “Being average is OK.” Own the fact that sometimes the public is right for all the wrong reasons, and no one ever lays on their deathbed wishing they had spent more money on trusting Joe Philbin.

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 over Seattle

Here’s a little story about a buddy of mine who’s an Eagles fan:

It was our freshman year in college and this Eagles fan, let’s call him “Doug”, lived on my floor. The Eagles had made it to the NFC Championship game for the third time in a row and they were taking on the Carolina Panthers. Of course, they ended up losing that game via a particularly bad Donovan McNabb implosion, and Doug was distraught. He got so mad at the loss that he ripped the drinking fountain off the wall of our dorm and water started spraying everywhere, flooding the entire hallway.

Doug panicked because he already had two strikes against him in our college’s “three strikes and you’re out” policy. He knew that everyone would rightfully assume he was to blame for the vandalism because, well, he’s the only person who would do that. So in a stroke of genius he immediately ran to the RA’s room screaming that “someone ripped the water fountain off the wall!” This is what’s known to PR people as “getting out in front of the story.” It was a brilliant move and they never suspected him of being the culprit. My point here is that Philly fans get a lot of flak for being idiots, but the truth is they’re so good at being idiots that they’re smart about being stupid. That’s the difference between a Philly guy and a Pitt guy, in my experience.

New England -3.5 over SAN DIEGO

The Chargers are a miserable 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games despite being 8-1 straight up in their last nine at home; something’s got to give in this game. The Pats are not to be messed with coming off of a loss; it’s the type of game where Belichick won’t take his foot off the gas if he jumps out to an early lead, so a backdoor cover will be less likely. I fully expect New England to dominate.

Again, this isn’t the sharpest bet I’ve made, but I don’t care. I’m thinking that watching San Diego’s DBs trying to tackle Rob Gronkowski will be the funniest primetime show of the year.

The rest:

Houston -4 over JACKSONVILLE

DENVER -9 over Buffalo

Kansas City +1.5 over ARIZONA

San Francisco -8 over OAKLAND

Atlanta +13 over GREEN BAY

DETROIT -10 over Tampa Bay

NEW ORLEANS -9 over Carolina

Indianapolis -3 over CLEVELAND

CINCINNATI -3.5 over Pittsburgh

MINNESOTA -4.5 over New York Jets

★★★

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