College football picks: Florida State, Ohio State will lose, reshaping playoff … – cleveland.com
How messy can it get this weekend?
Consider these facts:
We have one undefeated team, plus five more teams that have one loss. They are vying for four playoff spots.
Of those six teams, five play ranked, two-loss teams, including four in conference championship games. But two of the four highest-ranked two-loss teams, Michigan State and Mississippi State, aren’t involved in those games.
Do you see where we are going here?
While we debate whether TCU or Baylor should get in if both have one loss and if either are more deserving than Ohio State, that whole discussion can become so obsolete very quickly.
Because imagine a world where Kansas State is the Big 12 champion after upsetting Baylor while TCU gets shocked by Iowa State. Or a world where Wisconsin, Missouri, Georgia Tech and Arizona, all two-loss teams, win their conference championships, knocking off three one-loss teams and the last undefeated team.
And here’s the thing: That scenario — with the possible exception of TCU losing at home to Iowa State — isn’t all that far-fetched.
And if anything close to that happens, we’ll feel pretty silly for having spent so much time debating the merits of one-loss teams. Because then, it’ll be a two-loss world.
But will it? Here’s what I think.
Conference Championship Games
Friday
No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 2 Oregon, Pac-12 Championship Game: I’ve doubted Rich Rodriguez and his underdog Wildcats all year long.
When they were off to a 4-0 start, it was because of a weak non-conference schedule and a Hail Mary to beat middling California. When they followed that by beating Oregon, I blamed the injuries that had mounted on the Ducks’ roster.
So when they lost to USC and UCLA in the heart of the schedule, I dismissed them as impostures who had been exposed. I would not take them seriously.
But then they turned around and beat a team I know is good, Utah, 42-10. Then they beat another team I knew to be good, Arizona State, 42-35.
Now they have the rematch with Oregon and at 10-2, they are the nation’s highest-ranked two-loss team. And they have the nation’s best player you may not have heard of. Linebacker Scooby Wright leads college football with 27 tackles for loss, has 14 sacks (third in nation), 139 total tackles (fifth in the nation) and six forced fumbles (second in the nation). He is the closest thing you’ll find to a one-man wrecking crew in college football.
He’ll be chasing around Marcus Mariota, meaning that perhaps the nation’s best defensive player will be on the heels of the nation’s best offensive player in this game.
Fun stuff. And a second Arizona upset of the Ducks is an intriguing possibility.
But I can’t get past how good Oregon has been.
Nobody is consistently playing better football than Mariota and the Ducks. Over their current seven-game winning streak, the average victory margin is just under 23 points. They are truly a dominant team now, much better than were when they lost to Arizona on Oct. 2 after having struggled to beat lowly Washington State.
I’m doubting Arizona again … which may be good news for the Wildcats. … Oregon, 37-28
Fresno State at No. 22 Boise State, Mountain West Championship Game: Boise, at 10-2, beat out 10-2 Colorado State, 9-4 Utah State and 9-3 Air Force to win the Mountain Division. Fresno won the West Division at 7-5. On the Smurf Turf, this is a mismatch born out of two lopsided divisions. … BSU, 41-20
Saturday
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Missouri, SEC Championship Game: While I may kick myself a bit for doubting Arizona, I am still loyal to my doubts about Missouri.
The SEC is not top dog among conferences this year and the East Division, with its 1-6 record against teams from the other four power conferences and its 4-10 record against the much stronger West, is to blame. It could easily be argued that the SEC East is the weakest division among the power five conferences.
Missouri, as its champion, represents the weakness of the division well, with its ugly home loss to Indiana and its uglier 34-0 home loss to Georgia. Still, the Tigers kept finding ways to win, going 10-2 and repeating as division champions.
It’s a testament to Gary Pinkel and his team that, despite not being as good as it was last year, they persevered.
But this is mighty Alabama, the top-rated team in America and a team that, probably more than any other team in the country, can win games in different ways. They can beat you with the running game with T.J. Yeldon and the stable of backs. They can beat you with Amari Cooper in the passing game. They can win a defensive slugfest, like the 14-13 win over Arkansas. They can win a shootout, like last week’s 55-44 win over Auburn.
What I expect is Missouri to find a way to compete, but for Alabama to find a way to overcome the Tigers’ crafty effort, and pull away with big plays from Cooper. … Alabama, 34-14
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech, ACC Championship Game: You never want to play a triple option team on a week’s notice because you have a mere five practices to try to figure out how to defend something you rarely see.
You especially don’t want to face that kind of team when your own team has so many issues of its own to clean up. FSU turns the ball over. It goes through periods of malaise. Then it rallies.
This week, it catches up to them.
The Yellow Jackets’ dream season continues here and though FSU is a good team against the run (92.9 yards allowed per game), the option is a different kind of running game. The lack of attention to detail can kill the Seminoles this week.
I’m going to go out on a limb as say it will. FSU turns the ball over. Georgia Tech will have stretches where it gashes the Seminoles defense, and stretches where it doesn’t. But it will do it enough.
The upset finally happens. … Ramblin’ Wreck, 27-24
No. 13 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, Big Ten Championship Game: Here comes another upset, but this time, it’s really not an upset.
Ohio State is down to its third quarterback, Cardale Jones. And while he’s certainly good enough to hold down the position, I find it disrespectful to how good Wisconsin has been to assume he will automatically be successful on Saturday.
The Badgers play good defense. They also have a power run game that can offset the dominant pass rush that is the strength of the Buckeyes defense. Minnesota and Indiana, the two best run teams OSU played, averaged just under 250 rushing yards a game against the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin’s run game is better than both.
The big Badgers offensive line will frustrate Joey Bosa by keeping him from what he does best, rushing the passer. Melvin Gordon goes off for a big day and a Badgers defense that is fourth in the nation in points allowed will get after Jones. … Wisconsin, 24-17
Louisiana Tech at Marshall, Conference USA Championship Game: Louisiana Tech looked like it could have scored 100 points in a 76-31 win over Rice that decided the C-USA West title. Marshall might have eventually given up 100 in a 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky had the Hilltoppers not gone for two to win in the first overtime.
That adds up to a shootout. But Marshall is better and at home. … Marshall, 59-52
Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green, MAC Championship Game: Like the SEC and Mountain West, the divisions in the MAC aren’t equal. West champion Northern Illinois, one of the more consistent winners in college football, is 10-2. Bowling Green is the only team in the East with a winning record at 7-5. That disparity will show up on the scoreboard. … NIU, 30-13
Meanwhile, in the Big 12
No. 9 Kansas State at No. 6 Baylor: It’s frustrated a lot of people that TCU has remained ahead of Baylor in the CFP committee’s rankings.
But TCU simply has had a better résumé, with a good non-conference win over Minnesota — Baylor did not play a power five conference opponent in its non-conference schedule — and an impressive 41-20 win over Kansas State.
That game, more than anything else, has separated TCU from the Bears, but Baylor can close that gap by winning here and at that point, the assumption is the conference title and head-to-head win over TCU will carry the day for Baylor.
There’s one problem: Kansas State is pretty good.
The 9-2 Wildcats can claim at least a first-place tie with a win. They’ve already beaten Oklahoma on the road. It’s been their bad fortune that the three toughest Big 12 opponents — Baylor, OU and TCU — all got the Wildcats at home this year.
That just means Bill Snyder’s team has figured out how to be road warriors. They’ll be sound on defense and control the clock on offense. Nobody will celebrate this more than TCU. … Kansas State, 34-31
Iowa State at No. 3 TCU: Yes, TCU did struggle with Kansas. But that was on the road. Yes, Iowa State did almost upset Kansas State. But that was at home. This is a 2-9 team playing out the string in Fort Worth, where TCU is trying to play its way into the playoffs. … TCU, 45-14
Oklahoma State at No. 20 Oklahoma: Who would have thought Bedlam would be the third biggest game in the Big 12? OU was a little off this year, but Oklahoma State’s season went off the rails long ago. … OU, 41-17
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