Matchups: Silva’s Week 14 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

I was surprised to see this game’s over-under at a 47. Cincinnati is a three-point favorite, giving the Bengals a relatively generous team total of 25 points. The Vegas sharps must anticipate Cincinnati hammering Pittsburgh with its rushing attack, because neither Andy Dalton‘s recent play nor his historical performance against DC Dick LeBeau‘s defense inspires confidence the Bengals will have significant Week 14 passing success. Struggling even in his reduced game-manager role, Dalton carries a 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio over the past six weeks. Dalton has faced LeBeau six times in his career. Managing a 2-4 record, Dalton has completed 114-of-212 passes (53.8%) against the Steelers for 1,198 yards (5.65 YPA) with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. It’s tough to get behind Dalton as more than a low-end two-quarterback-league play. … Dalton’s target distribution since Giovani Bernard returned from injury two games ago: A.J. Green 24; Jermaine Gresham 11; Mohamed Sanu 10; James Wright 7; Jeremy Hill 5; Gio 4. … The one member of Cincinnati’s passing game who might blow up in this game is Green, whom Pittsburgh has historically elected to shadow with CB Ike Taylor. Back from a fractured forearm last week, 34-year-old Taylor was dusted for over 100 yards and two touchdowns by Saints receivers, including Kenny Stills‘ 69-yard score on a double move. Since the Bengals’ disastrous Week 10 Thursday night loss to Cleveland, Green has logged consecutive receiving lines of 6-127-1, 12-121, and 4-57-1. He’s the No. 8 overall fantasy receiver during that span.

Sanu has taken a backseat with Green healthy, seeing target totals of 6, 7, and 3 the past three weeks. He did have a 10-yard rushing attempt and an 11-yard completion in last week’s win over Tampa, but has now been held under 50 receiving yards in four straight games. Sanu has settled in as a low-upside WR3. … Gresham has topped 50 yards once in 12 games. Even against a Steelers defense allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends, Gresham isn’t a recommended TE1 streamer. … It would make a lot of sense for Bengals OC Hue Jackson to dial up a run-devoted Week 14 game plan. Pittsburgh ranks 19th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and permits a healthy 4.45 yards-per-carry average to running backs. Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas combined to douse the Steelers with 143 yards on 26 carries (5.50 YPC) last week. This has all the appearances of a Jeremy Hill game, especially after he started over Giovani Bernard in last week’s win, also out-touching (17:11) and out-snapping (32:31) Cincinnati’s more-ballyhooed scatback. Hill is an RB2 with RB1 upside. … Bernard managed rushing lines of 8-38 and 13-33 in last year’s two meetings with Pittsburgh. With his pass-game involvement way down this season, Bernard is a dicey RB2 and preferable flex play. Gio has logged more than two receptions in a game just once over his last seven appearances.

Probably the biggest reason I was surprised to read this game’s relatively aggressive over-under was the likelihood of Ben Roethlisberger having a slow week against a tough pass defense on the road in a division game. Cincinnati’s TD-to-INT ratio allowed on the year is a stingy 11:12, and only the Browns have a lower passer rating against (75.0). The Bengals rank No. 9 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. I’m starting Big Ben in a fantasy playoff game this week, but I’m pretty pessimistic, hoping the rest of my lineup will carry me. Roethlisberger faces the Falcons indoors next week. … Big Ben’s target distribution over his last seven games: Antonio Brown 85; Le’Veon Bell 50; Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller 38; Markus Wheaton 37; Lance Moore 15. … The Bengals pose a tough challenge for all wide receivers — as Mike Evans (4-49-0) and Vincent Jackson (2-24-0) could attest last week — but Brown is an exception to most rules. On pace for an absurd 128-1,677-15 receiving line, Brown is an obvious every-week WR1. … Bryant and Wheaton have stayed in a timeshare since Pittsburgh’s Week 12 bye. Bryant’s snap rates over that two-game stretch are 46% and 36% compared to Wheaton’s 54% and 71%. Bryant’s stat lines are 2-11-0 and 1-23-0. Wheaton’s are 1-6-0 and 5-61-0. As both Bryant and Wheaton are primarily perimeter receivers, they will run their Week 14 routes at savvy Bengals veteran CBs Pacman Jones and Terence Newman. In a potentially low-scoring game, neither Wheaton nor Bryant is trustworthy enough for WR3 deployment in the fantasy playoffs.

Roethlisberger peppered Heath Miller with throws in garbage time last week, connecting eight times for 82 yards on a season-high 14 targets. Currently the No. 13 overall fantasy tight end, Miller has had a number of big weeks this year, but they’ve been virtually impossible to predict. The Bengals do allow the ninth most receptions (60) and third most yards to tight ends (765). Miller is a TE1, but a low-end one and seemingly a boom-or-bust proposition. … In two games since they moved on from LeGarrette Blount, the Steelers have force fed Le’Veon Bell 64 touches, which he’s parlayed into an otherworldly 476 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Le’Veon is an obvious top-shelf RB1 every week, but we examine matchups in the Matchups column and Bell’s isn’t quite as favorable as it appears. Cincinnati’s run defense has stiffened over its last four games, holding opposing running backs to 373 yards on 114 carries (3.27 YPC). You’d still be hard pressed to find two or three better Week 14 running back plays.

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Bengals 20

St. Louis @ Washington

The over-under on Rams-Redskins is 44.5 points, pitting a Colt McCoy-quarterbacked offense against arguably the hottest defense in football. St. Louis has 22 sacks over its last five games, got back LE Chris Long from I.R./recall in Week 13, and has consistently disrupted offenses since a slow start to the season. Over the past four weeks, the Rams have held opposing quarterbacks to 121-of-178 passing for 964 yards (5.42 YPA) and an abysmal 3:7 TD-to-INT ratio. They played Derek Carr and Matt Schaub last week, but also faced Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Carson Palmer during that stretch. Fire up St. Louis’ fantasy defense and avoid McCoy, even in two-QB leagues. … I’ve discussed repeatedly in the weekly Matchups columns how Alfred Morris‘ rushing efficiency nosedives without Robert Griffin III‘s dual threat creating stress on defenses. That was borne out yet again last week, as the normally-soft Colts defensive front held Alf under 4.0 yards per carry, and to 2.88 YPC if you leave out his longest run. The Rams have limited enemy running backs to 308 yards and two touchdowns on 83 attempts (3.71 YPC) over their last five games. Morris was a borderline RB1 with RG3 at quarterback. He’s a dicier, mid-range RB2 with McCoy at the helm.

McCoy’s target distribution on the season: Jordan Reed 22; Pierre Garcon 17; DeSean Jackson 13; Andre Roberts 11; Roy Helu 7; Niles Paul 5; Darrel Young 3. … The Rams always pose a difficult matchup for tight ends due to long-armed WLB Alec Ogletree‘s relentless coverage. St. Louis has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points in the league to the position. Reed has been a high-volume safety valve with McCoy at quarterback, however, notching stat lines of 9-123 and 7-40 in McCoy’s two starts. So long as he’s healthy, Reed is a plug-and-play TE1. … Jackson’s stat lines in McCoy’s starts are 6-136 and 5-84-1. D-Jax’s bruised fibula cost him practice time this week, but he is expected to start on Sunday. On pace for 1,256 yards and seven touchdowns in his first year as a Redskin, Jackson is a fantasy WR2. The Rams are playing stingy pass defense overall, but their cornerbacks can be beaten. … Going to waste in the post-Shanahan era, Garcon has cleared 50 receiving yards in just one of his last nine games. Garcon actually has a better on-paper matchup than D-Jax — he’ll run routes against over-aggressive gambler RCB Janoris Jenkins while Jackson takes on impressive rookie LCB E.J. Gaines — but Garcon has done nothing this year that suggests he’s a reliable WR3. Garcon’s stat lines in McCoy’s two starts are 4-47-0 and 3-9-0.

Continuing to dominate Rams backfield work and showing a safe fantasy floor, Tre Mason has logged 17-plus touches in six of his last seven games. The bursty third-round rookie demonstrated his ceiling in last week’s romp over the Raiders, exploding for three touchdowns and 164 total yards with season-high usage in the passing game. Mason still has hiccups in blitz protection, but has become more decisive between the tackles and always had the foot quicks, speed, and toughness to be a dynamic NFL runner. Washington has played solid run defense all year, but did permit a combined 21-126-1 rushing line to the Colts last week, including Dan Herron‘s 49-yard touchdown run. Mason has solidified himself as an every-week RB2 with RB1 upside. … It doesn’t show up in the box score because the Rams wound up taking the air out of the ball in their 52-0 win over the Raiders, but their Week 13 plan of attack was pass heavy at the outset. St. Louis threw the football on nine of its initial 11 plays and 12 of its 17 first-quarter snaps, before grabbing a 21-0 lead. On the season, opposing quarterbacks have a 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio against the Redskins, who rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. I’d be wary of streaming Shaun Hill as a QB1 in the fantasy playoffs, but he’s a strong two-QB-league start. Washington’s defense is hilariously prone to pass-coverage busts.

Hill’s target distribution since reentering the starting lineup three games ago: Stedman Bailey 18; Jared Cook 15; Kenny Britt 14; Tavon Austin 12; Mason 8; Benny Cunningham 8; Lance Kendricks 6. … Bailey was the centerpiece of St. Louis’ early-game approach against Oakland. He secured five passes for 100 yards in the first quarter alone. Seemingly emerging as the Rams’ new No. 1 receiver, Bailey has posted consecutive stat lines of 7-89-1 and 5-100. I’m starting him in one of my Dynasty leagues as a WR4 this week, replacing injured Justin Hunter. Redskins RCB David Amerson amazingly allowed four touchdown passes last week. … Cook’s stat lines through three Hill starts are 3-19-0, 3-27-0, and 0-0. The Redskins permit the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Cook is virtually impossible to trust with one game over 30 yards among his last seven. Cook has one touchdown through a dozen games. … The Rams made a more-obvious effort to get the ball to Bailey than Britt last week, as Britt finished with one catch for 13 yards, securing his lone target. Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to Britt this week, but that isn’t something you can count on. He’s just another mouth to feed in an ordinarily low-volume, ineffecient passing game.

Score Prediction: Rams 20, Redskins 17

NY Giants @ Tennessee

The Titans were playing genuinely stout pass defense before Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s six-touchdown Week 13 explosion, which makes that game look like an outlier rather than a sign of things to come. Tennessee piled up 22 sacks over its previous six games, and in Weeks 10-12 limited Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco to a combined 67-of-102 passing for 683 yards (6.70 YPA) with just three touchdowns and three picks. Be careful trusting Eli Manning as a QB1 streamer in an attempt to chase last week’s FitzMagic stats. I do think Eli is a fine play in two-quarterback leagues. … The real way to defeat Tennessee’s defense is on the ground. Over their last five games, the Titans have served up 815 yards and seven rushing TDs on 165 carries (4.94 YPC) to running backs. Andre Williams was a complete dud in his October stint as New York’s featured runner, but is capable of executing at the goal line and will be a safe bet for 15-20 carries in Nashville. Ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA, the Titans are perhaps the easiest matchup a running back can get.

Eli’s target distribution the past three weeks: Odell Beckham 32; Rueben Randle and injured Rashad Jennings 22; Larry Donnell 17; Preston Parker 9; Williams 7; Daniel Fells 5. … Beckham can expect Titans top CB Jason McCourty to follow him around the formation in this game, just as McCourty did to Andre Johnson (7-53-1) last week. McCourty is the best Tennessee has to offer, but owns a negative coverage grade from Pro Football Focus on the year. With a touchdown and/or 90-plus yards in seven of his first eight NFL games, Beckham is an every-week WR1/2. He’s seen double-digit targets in four of the past five weeks. … If Randle is ever going to have a blowup game — and trust me, I’ve stopped holding my breath — this is it. Ranked No. 116 among 117 qualifiers in PFF’s coverage grades, Titans RCB Blidi Wreh-Wilson was the primary victim in DeAndre Hopkins‘ 9-236-2 explosion last week. Wreh-Wilson has been toasted all season. … With just two games over 60 yards all year, Donnell is entrenched as a low-end TE1. He does have a favorable Week 14 draw, facing a Titans defense that permits the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends.

The Titans enter Week 14 with a quarterback coming off a throwing-shoulder injury and facing one of the league’s worst run defenses. This would be a nice opportunity, on paper at least, to get their rushing attack going. Over their last seven games, the G-Men have coughed up 971 yards and six TDs on 184 carries (5.28 YPC) to running backs. Sankey’s matchup is further improved by New York’s year-ending loss of DE Robert Ayers (torn pectoral), who was the Giants’ best defensive lineman this season. The G-Men will also be without starting LE Mathias Kiwanuka (knee). Sankey has disappointed in both real life and fantasy, but he’s at least worth a look as a flex play in this game. Sankey’s limited usage remains a big concern. He’s been held to 12 or fewer touches in three straight games, and in last week’s blowout loss to Houston played fewer snaps (21) than passing-down specialist Dexter McCluster (34). … Zach Mettenberger is expected to start despite suffering a Grade 1 AC joint sprain in the third quarter of last week’s defeat. The strong-armed rookie was quietly on pace for another solid performance before going down, completing 68.4% of his throws against Houston for 184 yards and a touchdown to Kendall Wright. Through five starts, Mettenberger is 91-of-150 (60.7%) for 1,270 yards (8.47 YPA) with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Much of Mettenberger’s production has come with Tennessee playing from behind, but he’s shown enough to be considered a promising Dynasty league prospect.

Mettenberger’s target distribution on the year: Kendall Wright 35; Justin Hunter 30; Delanie Walker 24; Nate Washington 21; Sankey and McCluster 11; Chase Coffman and Leon Washington 7; Derek Hagan 6. … The Giants are moving their cornerbacks around frequently, so pegging specific matchups is difficult. They’re using Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Chykie Brown at right cornerback depending on the personnel package, with Zackary Bowman at LCB and Mike Harris at slot corner. Assuming Wright plays through the cracked bone in his hand, Tennessee’s slot receiver should primarily run routes at Harris, whom the G-Men signed off the street in late October. Particularly with Hunter (lacerated spleen) done for the year, Wright would be a logical candidate to lead the Titans in targets should his health cooperate. … The only Titans pass catcher worth putting any faith in is Walker, who takes on a Giants defense permitting the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends. He stands to benefit in the box score with Hunter on I.R. and Wright ostensibly ailing. Walker is coming off a one-catch, six-yard game, but at fantasy’s weakest position remains squarely in the TE1 conversation as a full-time player in a plus matchup. … Washington and Hagan figure to serve as the Titans’ primary perimeter receivers the rest of the way. Washington will probably do battle with Giants top CB Rodgers-Cromartie for most of this contest. Hagan and Washington should be avoided in the fantasy playoffs.

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Titans 17

1:00PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Bengals 20

St. Louis @ Washington

Score Prediction: Rams 20, Redskins 17

NY Giants @ Tennessee

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Titans 17

Carolina @ New Orleans

Mark Ingram rebounded from a slow two-game stretch to paste Pittsburgh for a 23-122 rushing line in last Sunday’s 35-32 victory. The Saints seem to have caught onto the fact that their offense functions at a more-optimal level with a foundation run game featuring Ingram, and featuring Ingram at home in the Superdome against a leaky defense is precisely what New Orleans should do in this game. Carolina ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and generously permits 4.43 YPC to running backs. Ingram hung a 30-100-2 rushing number on the Panthers when these clubs met in Week 9. Ingram is an RB1 in this matchup. … Khiry Robinson is tentatively due back from his six-week forearm injury, but beat writers expect Robinson to be “eased in” versus Carolina. It would be a surprise if Robinson handled more than 5-7 carries. … Drew Brees‘ production has lacked its usual consistency this year, but he’s been his typical elite QB1 self at home. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one of his six 2014 Superdome games, completing 71.5% of his throws with a 7.56 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. The Panthers struggle against the run, but have arguably been even worse against the pass, allowing a 22:9 TD-to-INT ratio against and a 98.2 combined passer rating, the seventh worst clip in the league. Brees is an elite QB1 in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. He’s also worth a serious look in FanDuel cash-game lineups. A couple of weeks ago, I suggested in the Matchups column that losing Brandin Cooks might help the Saints’ passing game by streamlining it. In two games post-Cooks, Brees is 54-of-72 passing (75%) for 677 yards (9.40 YPA), eight touchdowns, and one pick.

Brees’ target distribution since Cooks went on I.R.: Kenny Stills 15; Pierre Thomas 12; Jimmy Graham 10; Marques Colston 9; Nick Toon 7; Ingram 4; Travaris Cadet and Josh Hill 2; Joe Morgan 1. … Solidified as the Saints’ new featured wide receiver, Stills has posted stat lines of 8-98-0 and 5-162-1 since Cooks was lost for the year. Stills went 5-72 when the Saints and Panthers played in Week 9, which was before Cooks’ injury. Stills is a WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 14. … Graham is a shoo-in to bounce back after last Sunday’s goose egg. In seven career meetings with Ron Rivera‘s Panthers defense, Graham has racked up stat lines of 7-83-1, 5-73-1, 6-58-2, 9-115-1, 7-71-1, 8-97-1, and 8-129-0. Carolina is 14th in receptions (55) and 16th in receiving yards (628) allowed to tight ends. … Colston has seen five or fewer targets in five of New Orleans’ last six games. He’s the only prominent Saints pass catcher I wouldn’t be able to trust in this mouth-watering matchup. … Pierre Thomas has logged snap rates of 53% and 25% since returning from rib and shoulder injuries two games ago. His touch totals are 11 and 5. Thomas’ season high in touches was 13, established all the way back in Week 1. With Ingram rolling again and Robinson back, Thomas is an unattractive flex option.

There are two ways to approach Cam Newton‘s Week 14 matchup. From a glass-half-empty standpoint, Newton has historically struggled against Rob Ryan‘s Saints defenses, completing 45-of-84 throws (53.6%) for 492 yards (5.86 YPA) with just two touchdowns and two interceptions in their three career meetings. Newton’s rushing numbers in those contests are 6-48-0, 4-6-0, and 7-43-1. On the other hand, Ryan’s defense is more vulnerable than ever this year. Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has allowed Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger to combine to go 66-of-104 passing (63.5%) for 898 yards (8.63 YPA) and a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Ultimately, Cam has been a fringe QB1 all year and should be treated as such at the Superdome, even in a potential shootout. … Cam’s target distribution on the year: Kelvin Benjamin 109; Greg Olsen 85; Jerricho Cotchery 64; Jonathan Stewart 20; Philly Brown 18; Brenton Bersin 15; DeAngelo Williams 6. … The Saints assigned usual LCB Keenan Lewis to Benjamin when these teams met in Week 9. Lewis shut down Benjamin, holding him to two catches for 18 yards on ten targets. The volume will continue to be there for Benjamin and he is a big, proven NFL touchdown scorer, but I’d view him as much more of a WR3 than his usual WR2 self in this matchup. It is worth noting that Lewis hasn’t quite been the same since a midseason knee injury. Pro Football Focus has charged Lewis with three touchdowns allowed over his last four games.

Olsen also has a rough matchup. The Saints have allowed the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, and held Olsen to a 3-30 receiving line in Week 9. Olsen remains a locked-in TE1 at fantasy football’s weakest position. Among tight ends, only Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Antonio Gates have outscored Olsen this year. … Cotchery (again) has the most favorable matchup in Carolina’s pass-catcher corps, taking on burnable Saints Nos. 2 and 3 corners Patrick Robinson and Corey White. Unfortunately, Cotchery has consistently failed to deliver even in the finest of draws, showing an utter inability to beat man coverage. He’s a fantasy WR5. … The Saints’ defense has yielded 596 yards and five touchdowns on 108 carries (5.52 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last four games. With DeAngelo Williams (hand) not expected to play on Sunday, Jonathan Stewart is worth considering as a low-end RB2/flex. Stewart is functional in the passing game, capable of executing at the goal line, and is averaging 4.25 yards per carry, which is somewhat impressive considering how poorly Carolina’s offensive line has played this year. Mike Tolbert did return from I.R./recall in Week 13 to play 48% of the snaps, and will be involved. So despite Williams’ expected absence, the Panthers will still be a multi-back team.

Score Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 20

NY Jets @ Minnesota

Jets-Vikings has a 40.5-point over-under, tied with Chiefs-Cardinals for lowest of Week 14. These are games for daily-fantasy leaguers to skip. … The Jets’ organizational dysfunction reached a new low in last Monday’s loss to the Dolphins. The front office wants Geno Smith “evaluated” at the end of a lost year. The coaching staff would rather do what it thinks gives New York its best chance to eke out late-season wins. Against Miami, that meant putting the game in Geno’s hands as infrequently as possible. While the Jets combined for a whopping 49 rushing attempts, Geno attempted just 13 throws, with only three traveling beyond nine yards, all of which fell incomplete. The Jets’ entire pass-catcher corps was torpedoed as reserve TE Zach Sudfield “led” New York in receiving at one reception for 20 yards. All Jets wideouts and tight ends should be written off as fantasy playoffs options. … New York’s offensive approach with Geno at quarterback does align nicely with Minnesota’s primary weakness: Run defense. Ranked No. 27 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Vikings permit the ninth most fantasy points to running backs, including a robust 4.62 YPC average. Unfortunately, the Jets reverted to a three-back timeshare in last week’s loss to the Dolphins, giving Chris Ivory 39% of the snaps, Chris Johnson 35%, and Bilal Powell 25%. Johnson led the team with 105 yards on 17 carries, but Ivory finished with 16 runs and could just as easily unseat Johnson as New York’s leading rusher in Week 14. Based on to-date performance and usage, Ivory is the best bet in the Jets’ backfield and an underrated RB2/flex play in a soft matchup. Johnson is a closed-eyes flex option.

The Vikings used Matt Asiata as their feature back with Jerick McKinnon (back) sidelined for Week 13 against Carolina. Playing 74% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps, Asiata handled 18 touches, though he gained only 57 scoreless yards. Asiata essentially has fullback talent and the Jets play top-three run defense. If McKinnon is out again, Asiata would only be worthy of flex consideration based on the possibility of executing a goal-line score. He is one of the least physically skilled running backs in football. … Teddy Bridgewater‘s target distribution since the Vikings’ Week 10 bye: Charles Johnson 22; Greg Jennings 14; McKinnon 10; Asiata 9; Kyle Rudolph 8; Cordarrelle Patterson 6; Rhett Ellison 5; Jarius Wright 4; Chase Ford and Joe Banyard 3. … Johnson had a slow Week 13 game (2-41-0) by his recent standards, but continued to operate as a full-time player. His stats were affected by Minnesota taking the air out of the ball following two early special teams touchdowns and a 28-6 halftime lead. Johnson should remain locked into lineups as an upside WR3. Routinely torched at cornerback, the Jets have allowed an NFL-most 27 passing TDs. Johnson will be a solid bet to hit pay dirt in this game. … The other Vikings pass catcher worth fantasy playoffs discussion is Rudolph, whose snap rates are 88% and 92% the past two weeks. New York has coughed up the second most fantasy points to tight ends, including a league-high 12 touchdowns. Rudolph is a sensible TE1 streamer.

Score Prediction: Vikings 21, Jets 16

Baltimore @ Miami

The over-under on Ravens-Dolphins is a conservative 45.5 points. I’d lean toward the over in a game that could feature a surprisingly high number of pass attempts. Both clubs have above-average run-stopping units or better, and Baltimore in particular is vulnerable in the air. Depleted at cornerback and now without disruptive DL Haloti Ngata (suspension), the Ravens have been tagged for 110-of-154 passing (71.4%), 1,322 yards (8.58 YPA), and a 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio by opposing quarterbacks over their last four games. Baltimore has racked up 14 sacks during that span and ranks ninth in the NFL in sacks (31) on the year, so this still isn’t quite a cupcake matchup for Ryan Tannehill. I do think he’s a serviceable lower-end QB1 and a strong two-quarterback-league start. … Tannehill’s target distribution since Miami’s Week 5 bye: Mike Wallace 60; Jarvis Landry 59; Charles Clay 36; Brian Hartline 24; Lamar Miller and Brandon Gibson 19; Dion Sims 17; Damien Williams 12; Daniel Thomas 8. … Tannehill’s intermediate and vertical passing limitations are always an obstacle, but the best way for Miami to attack Baltimore is on the perimeter, where liabilities RCB Anthony Levine and LCB Danny Gorrer roam. This is an excellent on-paper matchup for Wallace, who ranks 20th in fantasy receiver scoring and is an established every-week WR2. … Landry will likely get chances against both struggling LCB/slot CB Lardarius Webb and oft-burned safety Matt Elam, who often moves into the slot on passing downs. Landry’s route tree is somewhat similar to Keenan Allen‘s. Allen wrecked Baltimore for an 11-121-2 number last week. A WR2 in PPR leagues and WR3 in non-PPR, Landry quietly leads the Dolphins in targets (37) over the last month.

Hartline has one touchdown through 12 weeks and five TDs over his last 40 games. Avoid. … The Charles Clay–Dion Sims situation is tricky for Miami. Clay has operated at less than 100% all season, and impressive sophomore Sims has arguably earned more snaps. If Clay returns from his knee and hamstring injuries this week, it’s conceivable he would lose snaps and/or targets to Sims against a Ravens defense that ranks 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. If Clay does not play, Sims would be a low-ceiling streamer play. … A true shutdown defense on the ground, Baltimore has stuffed opposing running backs for the fewest fantasy points in the league and a 3.47 YPC average. The Ravens are No. 7 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. The four-game loss of Ngata will deal a major blow to Baltimore, however, and Lamar Miller has shown a high floor in three straight tough run-defense matchups, having poured 98 total yards on the Bills in Week 11, averaged 4.92 yards per carry at Denver in Week 12, and amassed 67 all-purpose yards with a touchdown in last Monday’s win over the Jets. Miller’s upside seems limited on paper, but he’s entrenched as an every-week RB2. Miller is on pace for 1,200 yards from scrimmage and nine TDs. He’s averaging 4.86 YPC in first-year OC Bill Lazor‘s run-friendly scheme.

The Dolphins have played solid run defense for most of this season, but have begun springing leaks lately. Over the past two weeks, Miami has permitted 372 yards and a touchdown on 67 carries (5.55 YPC) to Broncos and Jets running backs, including Chris Johnson‘s 17-105 faux-renaissance game. The Fins are on a short week after facing nearly 50 rushing attempts in the 16-13 win over New York. This isn’t a great matchup for Justin Forsett, but Miami’s recent rushing production allowed indicates it isn’t one to fear, either. Forsett is a locked-and-loaded fantasy RB1. … The Dolphins play much stouter pass defense. They’re No. 2 overall in passing yards allowed — behind only Kansas City — and rank seventh in sacks (33), first in YPA allowed (6.1), and fifth in quarterback rating against (81.6). One argument for betting the under on Ravens-Dolphins is the tendency of Joe Flacco to hit rock bottom when under pressure. He’s going to face lots and lots of pressure from Miami’s deep pass-rusher corps in this game.

Flacco’s 2014 target distribution in games where Owen Daniels has served as Baltimore’s primary tight end: Steve Smith Sr. 53; Torrey Smith 50; Daniels 46; Forsett 26; Kyle Juszczyk 18; Marlon Brown 14; Kamar Aiken 12; Crockett Gillmore 7. … This game sets up beautifully for Torrey Smith, who enters Week 14 with 90-plus yards or a touchdown in seven of his last nine games. According to 4for4 Football’s John Paulsen, Torrey is the WR13 overall since Week 6. That’s borderline fantasy WR1 production. Whereas Smith Sr. projects to run most of his routes at Dolphins LCB Brent Grimes, Torrey will either take on banged-up RCB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) or R.J. Stanford, who was signed off the street two weeks ago. Fire up Torrey as an upside WR2. … Predictably slowing down late in his age-35 season, Smith Sr. is averaging 35.8 yards per game over the past five weeks. If Grimes indeed stays with him, Smith Sr. can expect another slow week. Grimes is PFF’s No. 21 overall cover cornerback among 117 qualifiers. … The Dolphins allow the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Scoreless in eight of his last nine games and held to 30 yards or fewer in three straight, Daniels is a fantasy TE2.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Ravens 23

Indianapolis @ Cleveland

Trent Richardson has 904 yards and six TDs on 296 carries (3.05 YPC) since the Colts traded for him last September. During that same timespan, all of the Colts’ other running backs have 1,449 yards and 11 TDs on 290 carries (5.00 YPC). It’s long past time the Colts gave up the ghost on T-Rich. Fantasy leaguers certainly have. The lone flex-worthy option in Indianapolis’ backfield is Dan Herron, who continued to play fewer snaps than Richardson in last week’s bludgeoning of the Redskins, but continued to outproduce him, piling up 96 total yards and a touchdown on ten touches, compared to T-Rich’s 12 yards on eight carries with no pass-game involvement. The Browns have tightened up their run defense against a few weak opponents recently, but are still allowing a crisp 4.29 YPC average to opposing running backs and rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. … Another offensive explosion seems unlikely for Andrew Luck in a game with a 50-point over-under — low by Indy’s standards — that has assigned the Colts a sub-27-point team total. Luck is a strong season-long QB1, as usual, but has become too expensive to use in daily leagues this week. Cleveland has played genuinely stout pass defense, getting shutdown coverage from Joe Haden, leading the NFL in interceptions (17), and holding opponents to the lowest combined passer rating in football (74.1). I’d rank Luck as a top-five fantasy quarterback play in Week 14. He just wouldn’t be in my top three (Rodgers > Brees > Brady).

Luck’s target distribution over his last four games with both Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne in the lineup, as both will be this week: Wayne 39; T.Y. Hilton 36; Allen 23; Coby Fleener 22; Ahmad Bradshaw (now Herron’s role) 19; Hakeem Nicks 18; T-Rich 12; Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle 3. … Hilton is outdoors — where his historical production sinks — and figures to be chased by Haden. One of the great things about daily fantasy is you don’t even have to consider Hilton this week. He’s a must-start in season-long leagues. … Will Wayne “capitalize” on Haden-versus-Hilton, which will surely be a struggle at times for T.Y.? Is Wayne physically capable of capitalizing at age 36? Wayne has a plus matchup versus Browns UDFA slot corner K’Waun Williams, but also had great matchups against the Jaguars and Redskins in Weeks 12-13, and delivered stat lines of 3-10-0 and 4-31-0. You’re on your own starting Wayne at this point. … Squaring off with burnable Browns RCB Buster Skrine, Moncrief would be a more likely beneficiary should Haden give Hilton problems. Still a limited-snap player, Moncrief’s playing-time rates are on the uptick at 17% (Week 11), 39% (Week 12), and 53% (Week 13). So after he went 3-134-2 on just four targets in last week’s win over Washington, logic would tell you Moncrief’s usage should continue to trend upwards at Cleveland. Until we see OC Pep Hamilton start aggressively calling more plays for Moncrief, he’ll be a boom-or-bust WR3. But I’d try to get him in my lineup this week. … The Browns allow the tenth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, which combined with Allen’s return removes Fleener from the “safe” TE1 discussion. He’s now just a low-floor streamer option. … Allen has been a low-volume pass catcher all year, but is the best red-zone weapon on the Colts. He’s scored a TD in eight of his last 11 games. Allen will be a solid bet to refind pay dirt in his first game back.

Isaiah Crowell‘s Week 13 rushing production (17-29) disappointed, but coach Mike Pettine‘s post-game ripping of committee partner Terrance West bodes positively for Crowell’s going-forward outlook. West lost a third-quarter fumble that was returned by Bills RE Jerry Hughes for a touchdown, giving Buffalo a 14-3 lead. The Browns wound up losing 26-10. “You can’t be that loose with the football, it’s inexcusable,” Pettine said. “West really changed the whole flow of the game. It would have been a one-score game, and that’s the frustrating thing. Close games are going to come down to turnovers. Like I said, the West fumble changed everything. It’s inexcusable.” Crowell finished with 18 touches to West’s 8 and played 66% of the Browns’ offensive snaps to West’s 34%. Fantasy owners need to shake off last week’s slow game and start Crowell against the Colts, who rank No. 26 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and permit a crisp 4.38 yards-per-carry average to opposing running backs. … West’s Week 13 rushing numbers (7-32) look much better than Crowell’s on a sheet of paper, but were spiked by a garbage-time 18-yard run on the final snap of the game. I don’t think West will be eliminated from Cleveland’s offense, but his chances of posing a legitimate threat to Crowell’s lead-back role have vanished. West doesn’t offer a high enough floor or ceiling to be trusted as a flex play versus Indianapolis.

Pettine re-named Brian Hoyer the Browns’ starting quarterback at his Wednesday press conference. Hoyer has been so abysmal recently that I’m not sure he can even be trusted in two-quarterback leagues. Browns beat writers expect Hoyer to be on a short in-game leash after Johnny Manziel provided a “spark” off the bench in last Sunday’s loss to Buffalo. Over his last three games, Hoyer is 61-of-120 passing (50.8%) for 844 yards and a 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if we see Manziel at the half. … Josh Gordon‘s snap rate climbed from 69% to 77% in his second game off suspension. The Browns are funneling Gordon the football on screens and shallow crosses, and his 29 targets the past two weeks dwarf Browns runner-up Miles Austin‘s 17. Gordon has been targeted on 37.2% of Cleveland’s team pass attempts since returning. Andre Johnson currently leads the NFL in target percentage at 31.8%. Back to every-week WR1 treatment, Gordon could go wild if Colts RCB Vontae Davis (concussion) sits this one out. … Assuming he returns this week as expected, Jordan Cameron is worth firing up immediately as a TE1. No. 2 tight end Jim Dray (ribs) and possession receiver Austin (kidney) are both out, creating lots of opportunity for Cameron behind Gordon. The Colts allow the third most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. … Hawkins’ target totals since Gordon returned are 5 and 3. He’ll be pushed further down the totem pole with Cameron back.

Score Prediction: Colts 28, Browns 20

Tampa Bay @ Detroit

Matthew Stafford‘s cupcake fantasy home stretch began on Thanksgiving, as the previously struggling signal caller lit up Chicago for 390 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 75.6% passing, easily Stafford’s best game since Week 1. Stafford played efficiently and in control, a sight for sore eyes late in an otherwise disappointing year. Stafford gets back LT Riley Reiff from a knee injury against the Bucs, who rank No. 21 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and have allowed enemy QBs to compile a 22:11 TD-to-INT ratio. Playing indoors against a weak opponent, Stafford is back in the mid-range-QB1 conversation. … Stafford’s target distribution since the Lions’ Week 9 bye: Calvin Johnson 53; Golden Tate 36; Theo Riddick 22; Eric Ebron 15; Joique Bell 12; Jeremy Ross 9. … Calvin has been a usage monster since Detroit’s open date, seeing target totals of 15, 12, 10, and 16. After unloading on the Bears in Week 13 (11-146-2), expect Megatron to stay hot against underachieving Bucs CBs Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks. … With none of the Lions’ tight ends stepping up, Tate’s role has remained consistently voluminous. He has double-digit targets in 3-of-4 games since Calvin returned from his early-season ankle injury. Tate is the clear-cut No. 2 option in Detroit’s passing attack and an every-week WR2 in fantasy.

Ebron’s snap rates are 59%, 56%, and 61% over his last three games. Ebron is dropping too many passes and running questionable routes, but his role now appears solidified and he’s made some noise after the catch. He’s worth a look as a desperation TE1 streamer against a Bucs defense allowing the fifth most receptions (65) and 11th most yards (664) to tight ends. … Joique Bell has 16-plus touches in six of his last seven games and pasted the Bears for a season-best 23-91-2 rushing line on Thanksgiving. Bell was particularly impressive in fourth-quarter clock-killing mode. As the Lions are 9.5-point favorites against Tampa Bay, Bell should have more opportunities to rack up clock-salting rushing attempts. He’s an excellent flex and passable fantasy RB2. … Reggie Bush (ankle) has struggled to stay on the field this season, and has been ineffective on it. Perhaps Bush will become a viable flex play later in the fantasy playoffs, but ideally owners would wait to see Bush last four quarters on his balky ankle before starting him. He is expected to return against the Bucs, but will definitely play behind Bell and could end up sharing passing-down work with Theo Riddick.

Perhaps the biggest bust of 2014 free agency has been Bucs LT Anthony Collins, whom Pro Football Focus has charted with the most quarterback hits allowed among NFL offensive linemen despite three missed games. Expect Collins to get eaten alive by red-hot Lions RE Ziggy Ansah, who is often overshadowed by DT Ndamukong Suh but has become one of the league’s most disruptive defenders in his second pro season. The Lions pose a severe mismatch in the trenches for the Bucs’ porous offensive line. I’d be concerned starting pretty much any Tampa skill-position player in a fantasy league this week. … Josh McCown is 40-of-77 passing (51.9%) for 531 yards (6.90 YPA) with one touchdown and three interceptions over his last two games. He’s lost a fumble and absorbed six sacks during that span. Ranked No. 2 in total defense, No. 1 in points allowed, and No. 4 in interceptions (15), the Lions’ fantasy defense is a highly recommended Week 14 play. McCown would be a poor two-QB-league bet. … The Bucs recommitted to Doug Martin as their feature back in last week’s loss to Cincinnati. Martin piled up 19 touches and 48 yards with a touchdown on his initial ten runs, but went in the tank thereafter, managing 10 yards on his final eight carries. The Lions rank No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and limit opposing ball carriers to 3.19 yards per carry. With Charles Sims and Bobby Rainey still siphoning backfield work, Martin is a flex option to avoid this week.

The over-under on Tampa-Detroit is 41.5 points with the Lions as 9.5-point favorites. As the Buccaneers’ team total is an anemic 16 points, this is a game to lean away from if you’re trying to break ties when considering Bucs players. … McCown’s target distribution over his last four starts: Mike Evans 38; Vincent Jackson 30; Louis Murphy 18; Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Rainey and Sims 14; Martin 1. … Evans’ production (4-49-0) disappointed in a tough Week 13 matchup against Cincinnati, but his usage didn’t, seeing nine targets. Evans still has eight touchdowns over his last eight games and has earned every-week WR2 treatment. He’s bypassed V-Jax as the Bucs’ go-to option in the passing game. … Jackson’s stat lines are all over the map in McCown’s last four starts (8-75, 3-43, 5-117, 2-24). He’s a fringe WR3 against stingy Lions perimeter CBs Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis. Jackson’s fantasy owners could try hanging their hats on the fact that V-Jax might be heavily targeted because the Bucs don’t have a prayer of running on the Lions. … With Seferian-Jenkins still nursing a back injury, avoid the Bucs’ tight end situation this week. … Slot receiver Murphy’s receiving lines are 1-12, 0-0, 6-113, and 1-7 since McCown got his job back from Mike Glennon four games ago. Murphy is safe to avoid in even the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Buccaneers 13

Houston @ Jacksonville

Unsurprisingly, the Vegas experts aren’t buying Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s Week 13 touchdown binge as an indicator of fantasy points to come. Texans-Jaguars has a 42-point over-under — fifth lowest in a 16-game Week 14 slate — with Houston installed as a six-point favorite. Thus, the Texans’ team total is just 24 points. Ranked third in the NFL in sacks (37), Jacksonville has piled up nine in the last two weeks alone, pummeling Andrew Luck five times in Week 12 and getting four more sacks on Eli Manning in last week’s upset of the Giants. The Jaguars have a lot of vulnerabilities in their secondary, but they will put pressure on Fitzpatrick, who tends to become highly turnover prone under duress. Beyond two-quarterback-leagues, fade Fitzpatrick in the first round of the fantasy playoffs and fire up Arian Foster. … Jacksonville ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including a league-high 78 receptions. Based on regression and matchup, I think this would be a good week to fade the Texans’ passing game in daily leagues and go all in on Foster.

Fitzpatrick’s target distribution on the season: Andre Johnson 98; DeAndre Hopkins 73; Foster 49; Damaris Johnson 25; Garrett Graham 18; Alfred Blue 7. … Top receiver stats against the Jags over their last four games: 4-122-1 (T.Y. Hilton); 6-158-2 (Dez Bryant); 3-44-1 (A.J. Green); 7-90 (Odell Beckham). Despite the targets discrepancy, it’s safe to say Hopkins has bypassed Johnson as the Texans’ “top” receiver. On pace for 80-1,388-8 compared to Johnson’s 87-960-3, Hopkins has 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-12 games this season, and eight or more targets six games in a row. Showing consistency and upside, Hopkins is a WR2 against a Jaguars defense that ranks 24th against the pass and has permitted a 20:5 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing passers. … The Texans’ wideouts flip sides enough that it’s become very difficult to peg defensive back-receiver matchups on a bankable basis. Both Hopkins and Johnson should have a ton of chances against Jaguars LCB Dwayne Gratz, who is 106th in PFF’s coverage grades among 117 qualifiers. The difference between Hopkins and Johnson at this stage of their careers is big-play ability. At age 33, Johnson has devolved into a low-scoring possession receiver. I still like him as a fantasy WR3.

Blake Bortles finally avoided turnovers in last week’s upset win over the Giants, but took seven sacks. He’s now absorbed at least four sacks in five of his last seven games. To make matters worse for the Jaguars, RT Austin Pasztor tore his hamstring versus the G-Men and is done for the year. Right tackles tend to spend a lot of time attempting to block Texans LE/DT J.J. Watt. Fire up the Texans’ fantasy defense for this mismatch in the trenches, and avoid Bortles in two-quarterback leagues. … Bortles’ target distribution since the Jaguars’ Week 11 bye: Marqise Lee 13; Allen Hurns 12; Cecil Shorts 11; Denard Robinson 9; Marcedes Lewis 6; Jordan Todman 5; Toby Gerhart 4. … Slot receiver Lee played 72% of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps against the Giants and led Jacksonville in receiving (6-75-1). No Jags wideout can be trusted in the fantasy playoffs, but at least Lee is showing signs of progress since a slow beginning to his rookie year. He’s getting a lot of playing time at slot receiver. … The Jags have begun giving Shorts more chances at the old Allen Robinson big-play role, a job that doesn’t quite suit Shorts’ skill set. He’s better off as a movement-Z receiver. Shorts’ stat lines since Jacksonville’s Week 11 bye are 1-6-0 and 4-35-0.

Hurns has cleared 50 receiving yards once over his last eight games. He is technically the Jaguars’ No. 2 receiver — behind Shorts and ahead of Lee — but can’t be placed in fantasy lineups as a member of one of the most dysfunctional passing games in the league. … Lewis’ target totals since returning from I.R./recall two games ago are 3 and 3. He will most certainly be needed to help block on the line after the loss of Pasztor. … Denard Robinson has allowed three sacks in pass protection over his last two games. The blown blitz pickups may have led to reduced Week 13 playing time, as “Shoelace” played just 48% of the Jaguars’ Week 13 offensive snaps, his lowest snap rate since Week 6. Todman played 30% against the Giants, while Gerhart handled 27%. It’s also worth noting that Robinson is averaging just 3.23 YPC over his last three games. Could he be wearing down over the course of his first-ever season as a featured running back? I suppose it’s possible. I still like Robinson as an flex play at home against a Houston team that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and submits a cool 4.22 yards per carry to running backs. If the Jags are going to stay competitive in this game — and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did — it will be because of their defense and rushing attack.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 21, Texans 20

4:05PM ET Games

Buffalo @ Denver

Late in the season with weather elements taking their toll, the Broncos have quietly transitioned to a run-based approach since installing C.J. Anderson as their feature back. And it hasn’t been a matter of routine game flow. Denver is pounding the rock with volume even when games are in doubt, racking up 80 combined rushing attempts the past two weeks. The Broncos only averaged 24.3 carries over their initial ten games. A true usage monster, Anderson’s snap rates are 93%, 90%, and 86% over his last three games, and his yards-per-carry average stands at 5.47 on the season. Anderson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage over the last month — by 100 yards. He’s a top-five RB1 against a Bills defense that has permitted 545 yards and four rushing TDs on 122 carries (4.47 YPC) to running backs over its last six games. … Peyton Manning‘s efficiency has waned over the course of the year, but he still has a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio over the last two weeks and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 11-of-12 games this season. The ceiling isn’t as high as it was early on, but Peyton is obviously still a top-shelf quarterback play. Buffalo does pose a relatively difficult matchup. DC Jim Schwartz‘s defense ranks No. 5 versus the pass, No. 4 in interceptions (15), and No. 1 in sacks (48). At this stage of the season, it’s safe to say offenses are better off attacking the Bills on the ground. Peyton usually offers a high fantasy floor, but probably isn’t worth his FanDuel price this week.

Julius Thomas is finally due back from his ankle injury. Buffalo has permitted the 12th most receptions (57) in the league to tight ends and doesn’t pose a forbidding matchup. Whenever Orange Julius is available for games, he is a top-three fantasy tight end play, behind only Gronk and Graham. … Expect Demaryius Thomas to run most of his Week 14 routes at steady Bills RCB Stephon Gilmore, a top-40 cornerback in Pro Football Focus’ grades. Gilmore is not quite a shutdown force, but I’d probably hesitate to pay up for Demaryius in daily leagues this week. He’s still an obvious top-three season-long play. … Emmanuel Sanders gets an even tougher draw versus LCB Corey Graham, quietly a top-eight corner at PFF. Sanders is an every-week WR1/2, but the challenging wide receiver-defensive back matchups in this game give me more pause on Peyton as a Week 14 ceiling play. … Wes Welker has been held under 40 receiving yards in six consecutive games, and didn’t even step up with Julius out. Welker isn’t in the fantasy discussion at this point.

The Bills are in a tough Week 14 spot, traveling across the country and coming off a big win. That’s often a recipe for major drop-off. Ranked No. 2 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and holding enemy running backs to a league-low 3.18 yards per carry, the Broncos are going to force an awful lot onto Kyle Orton‘s plate. Denver’s defense is a recommended fantasy play. Desperate QB1 streamers could give Orton a look because he’ll likely rack up a lot of pass attempts. He’s certainly in play in two-quarterback leagues. … Orton’s target distribution since the Bills’ Week 9 bye: Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins 31; Chris Hogan 23; Bryce Brown 17; Scott Chandler 15; Fred Jackson 13; Chris Gragg 5; Frank Summers and Anthony Dixon 3. … No longer even a threat to complete throws outside the numbers, Orton is averaging 5.81 yards per attempt over his last four games. Watkins has failed to clear 40 yards in all four. Dwindling into a boom-or-bust WR3 option only, Watkins’ quarterback is working against him, and he’ll have his Week 14 hands full with stingy Broncos CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harr is. … Now seeing the same volume of targets as Watkins, Woods has actually been a more stable fantasy play, albeit without not nearly as much ceiling. Woods has 50-plus yards in all but one of his last five games and has led Buffalo in receiving in back-to-back weeks, churning stat lines of 9-118-1 and 4-71-0. With Orton sticking to high-percentage throws, “Z” receiver Woods has earned WR3 consideration in PPR.

The Broncos have used Harris and rookie Bradley Roby interchangeably at slot corner, where Hogan runs almost all of his routes. Harris has been a shutdown force, whereas Roby has played impressively for a rookie but remains Denver’s weakest cornerback link. It’s become really difficult to forecast which one will cover the slot in a given week. Like Woods, Hogan requires a lot of volume to pay off as a fantasy start. He’s been held to single-digit yardage totals in two straight games. … Denver allows the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Chandler has been held under 40 receiving yards in 10-of-12 games. He epitomizes “dart-throw” as a TE1 streamer. … Fred Jackson has taken over as Buffalo’s lead back, playing 74% of the Bills’ Week 13 snaps and handling 24 touches in the win over Cleveland. Bryce Brown logged a 17% snap rate, finishing with three touches. Anthony Dixon played 9% of the downs and carried six times for 25 yards, primarily operating as Buffalo’s clock-killing runner. The rushing matchup is incredibly tough, but I think F-Jax is a sneaky flex play in PPR leagues. Orton loves to check it down, and Jackson could rack up a lot of receptions against Denver’s injury-riddled linebacker corps.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Bills 17

Kansas City @ Arizona

The over-under on Chiefs-Cardinals is 40.5 points, tied with Jets-Vikings for lowest of Week 14. In fantasy-lineup decisions, avoid this game wherever possible. … Even when including last week’s solid box score from Matt Ryan versus Arizona, the Cards have held enemy quarterbacks to a 9:11 TD-to-INT ratio over their last eight games. DC Todd Bowles‘ blitz-heavy defense has piled up 18 sacks over the past four weeks. Alex Smith isn’t worth QB1 streamer consideration, and offers scant upside as a two-QB-league option, as well. Kansas City will very likely struggle to generate offense in the desert, particularly via the pass. … Smith’s target distribution since the Chiefs’ Week 6 bye: Dwayne Bowe 49; Jamaal Charles 31; Travis Kelce 30; De’Anthony Thomas 17; Anthony Fasano 12; Anthony Sherman and Junior Hemingway 8; Frankie Hammond 6; Knile Davis, Jason Avant, and Albert Wilson 4; Donnie Avery 2. … Expect Bowe to tangle early and often with Cardinals LCB Patrick Peterson in this one. Peterson got ransacked by Julio Jones (10-189-1) last week, but had played borderline-shutdown defense in his previous four games and is likely smarting after the embarrassment. Bowe hasn’t been more than a WR4 all year. He’s more of a WR5 in this matchup.

Despite “leading” Kansas City in receiving yards in three straight games, Kelce has managed scoreless stat lines of 3-37, 4-67, and 3-36. His snap rates are up to 88%, 94%, and 83% during that span, but Smith’s passing limitations are crushing Kelce’s production. Kelce is still a top 10-12 option at his position facing a Cardinals defense that permits the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. Arizona’s loss of FS Tyrann Mathieu (thumb surgery) weakens the team’s safety position, improving Kelce’s matchup on paper. … Avery returned from his groin injury in last week’s loss to Denver. He caught 1-of-2 targets for 20 yards but made a late-game mental mistake, staying in bounds after his lone reception rather than stopping the clock with Kansas City attempting to rally back. With a low football IQ in addition to a weak skill set, Avery isn’t worth rostering in 14- or 16-team leagues. … Beyond low-end TE1 Kelce, Charles is the only Chiefs skill-position player worth using in this matchup. He’s scored 12 all-purpose TDs over his last nine games, and the Cardinals’ normally-stout run defense coughed up Steven Jackson‘s year-best 18-101 rushing line in last week’s loss to Atlanta. This still isn’t a quality draw for Charles, but he’s one of a handful of true every-week fantasy starters. You fire him up regardless of opponent.

With Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington both out of the mix, it’s fair to say the Cardinals don’t have a functional run or pass game at this stage of the season. Drew Stanton is playing legitimately horrific football. He’s thrown five picks over his last three games and engineered one touchdown drive across Arizona’s past 11 quarters. Now taking on Kansas City’s No. 1-ranked pass defense, Stanton isn’t even worth a two-quarterback-league start. … Stanton’s target distribution on the season: Michael Floyd 37; John Brown 36; Larry Fitzgerald 28; Ellington 25; John Carlson 20; Jaron Brown 18; Ted Ginn 11; Rob Housler 4. … With Fitzgerald (knee) apparently coming back against the Chiefs, the target situation is further muddled for Arizona, and the quarterback is wildly inefficient. It’s really hard to imagine starting a Cardinals wide receiver in this game. … Same goes for the running back corps. Broken-down Ellington won’t play due to a “severe” hip pointer, leaving some mix of Marion Grice, Stepfan Taylor, Michael Bush, and FB Robert Hughes to vie for touches. The Chiefs are weak in run defense, but there is no clarity in the Cardinals’ backfield and the run blocking is poor. In a game with a putrid over-under, it’s safe to say there isn’t a single Arizona skill-position player worthy of Week 14 fantasy usage.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cardinals 10

4:25PM ET Games

Seattle @ Philadelphia

The Eagles play highly aggressive, blitz-heavy defense and are better defensively than their stats suggest, but they are also a man-coverage team exploitable by dual-threat quarterbacks on the ground, and cough up lots of passing production. Philly’s defense has yielded the fourth most passing touchdowns (27) in football and allows the seventh most passing yards per game (258.6). On paper, this game sets up nicely for Russell Wilson to shake off his recent struggles and fill up the box score. The over-under on Eagles-Seahawks is a robust 48.5 points, sixth highest of Week 14. … Wilson’s target distribution since the Percy Harvin trade: Doug Baldwin 46; Jermaine Kearse 35; Paul Richardson 21; Marshawn Lynch 20; Luke Willson 19; Cooper Helfet 17; Robert Turbin 14; Tony Moeaki 7; Kevin Norwood 6. … Primarily running slot routes, Baldwin gets the toughest draw in Seattle’s receiver corps, taking on Eagles slot CB Brandon Boykin. Among 117 qualifiers, Boykin is a top-12 cornerback in PFF’s coverage grades. … Kearse has been a consistent letdown in prime matchups all year, but is worth a look as a FanDuel tournament “stack” if you’re willing to gamble on Wilson. Kearse’s price is only $4700 — just above minimum cost — and he will primarily draw Eagles LCB Bradley Fletcher, the weakest link in Philly’s cornerback corps.

Second-round rookie Richardson continues to operate as Seattle’s No. 3 receiver, and continues to look like an NFL draft mistake. Taken ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, and Martavis Bryant, Richardson has cleared 25 receiving yards in one game all year. … Helfet missed last Thursday’s Thanksgiving win over San Francisco, reducing the Seahawks’ tight end timeshare to a two-man ordeal of Moeaki and Willson. Helfet is due back this week, meaning Seattle figures to resume a three-tight end committee against the Eagles. Avoid three-tight end committees in fantasy football. … The Eagles’ defensive strength is on the ground, where they limit opposing running backs to 3.65 YPC and rank No. 8 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Philadelphia has somewhat surprisingly experienced zero drop-off since losing ILB DeMeco Ryans (Achilles’) for the year. Fantasy owners can’t expect a monster game from Marshawn Lynch, but the long layoff between Thursday and this Sunday’s game should serve his balky back well, and Lynch remains a high-floor play with at least 18 touches in five consecutive games. Lynch is averaging 5.09 yards per carry over the last month. This isn’t the week to FanDuel Lynch, but he’s worth locking into season-long lineups as an RB1.

Beginning to play and score like a legitimate RB1 again, LeSean McCoy has three touchdowns over his last four games and is averaging 5.03 YPC the past seven weeks. His explosive lateral movements have returned in full effect en route to Weeks 12-13 rushing lines of 21-130-1 and 25-159-1 against Tennessee and Dallas. The Week 14 concern for McCoy is no longer his individual performance. It’s his matchup, as the Seahawks have limited 49ers and Cardinals running backs to 88 scoreless yards on 31 carries (2.84 YPC) since MLB Bobby Wagner returned from a toe injury two games ago. The good news is volume should still be on McCoy’s side, as he’s averaging 20.2 carries per game — second most in the NFL behind only DeMarco Murray — and Philadelphia is favored by a point in this game, suggesting game flow should allow Chip Kelly to lean on his rushing attack. McCoy may struggle to crack 4.0 yards per carry versus Seattle, but topping 100 all-purpose yards is within his range of outcomes. He’s a low-end RB1 this week. … Darren Sproles‘ touch totals are 7, 2, 4, 9, and 4 on offense over the Eagles’ last five games. He’s pretty much impossible to trust in the fantasy playoffs. … Since RCB Byron Maxwell returned from a calf injury in Week 10, the Seahawks have held enemy quarterbacks to a combined 70-of-115 passing (60.9%) for 661 yards (5.75 YPA) and a 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Seattle hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass in three games, and has seven sacks over its last two. Perhaps Kelly will draw up a masterful game plan against the Seahawks, but I’d be loath to trust Mark Sanchez in a brutally difficult matchup during the fantasy playoffs.

Sanchez’s target distribution since Nick Foles broke his collarbone: Jeremy Maclin 40; Jordan Matthews 33; Riley Cooper 26; Brent Celek 20; Darren Sproles 18; Zach Ertz 17; Josh Huff 7; McCoy 5. … Maclin runs most of his routes at left cornerbacks and therefore will spend much of this game in LCB Richard Sherman‘s coverage. Sherman has been an animal this year, allowed just one touchdown pass all season and a 46.2 completion rate on throws intended for receivers lined up against him, per PFF. Maclin did work over Cardinals LCB Patrick Peterson for a 12-187-2 line in Week 8, and has the necessary quickness to get catches against Sherman. But I don’t think you can expect a big box-score game. … The most consistent Eagles wideout at this stage of the season, Matthews’ stat lines in Sanchez’s four starts are 7-138-2, 5-107-1, 6-77-0, and 4-51-1. The Seahawks did use Maxwell at slot corner for much of last Thursday night’s win over San Francisco, somewhat concerning for Matthews’ matchup if Seattle continues that approach. I still think Matthews is the best bet for production in Philly’s wideout corps. … Cooper’s stat lines in Sanchez’s starts are 1-6-0, 4-39-0, 3-49-0, and 4-32-0. Avoid. … Celek has cleared 50 receiving yards in 1-of-12 games this year and is scoreless on the season. Ertz has a ton of talent, but his snap rates the past three weeks are 35%, 31%, and 26%, and he didn’t help his cause by letting a touchdown pass clang off his hands in last week’s win over Dallas. The Seahawks allow the 12th fewest receptions (51) and fourth fewest yards (439) in the league to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 20

San Francisco @ Oakland

I hesitate to “recommend” Colin Kaepernick after he burned us badly two weeks ago against the Redskins, but he has to be taken seriously as a two-quarterback-league play, QB1 streamer option, and cost-friendly FanDuel tournament start. Stedman Bailey and career journeyman backup Shaun Hill carved up this same Oakland defense last week before St. Louis took the air out of the ball en route to a 52-0 curb stomping. The talent-less Raiders have the fewest sacks (13) in football and a 22:5 TD-to-INT ratio against. Football Outsiders has graded Oakland 26th in pass defense on the year. … Kaepernick’s target distribution since the 49ers’ Week 8 bye: Anquan Boldin 45; Michael Crabtree 35; Vernon Davis 20; Stevie Johnson 16; Brandon Lloyd 10; Frank Gore 9; Bruce Miller 8; Carlos Hyde 6. … A strong WR3 option this week, Boldin will run most of his routes at tissue-soft Raiders LCB D.J. Hayden and seventh-round rookie slot CB T.J. Carrie, whose performance has dipped since a fast start. Boldin has shown a comfortable floor with 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown in all but one of his last nine games. The plus matchup gives him upside in Week 14.

Kaepernick’s rapport with Crabtree has been nowhere near what it was during San Francisco’s 2012 Super Bowl run, and it’s fair to wonder if Crabtree is the same player after tearing his Achilles’ during the 2013 offseason. His explosive plays are much fewer and further between, and his current 11.3 yards-per-reception average would represent a career low. I don’t pretend to have a good feel for what Crabtree will do, but his matchup is enticing against Raiders RCB Tarell Brown, who is 91st in PFF’s coverage grades among 117 qualifiers. … Vernon Davis hasn’t cleared 40 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Move along. … Still the leader of San Francisco’s backfield, Frank Gore has logged snap rates of 73%, 68%, 66%, and 63% over his last four games. Carlos Hyde‘s usage has inched only slightly upward during that span, seeing touch totals of 4, 10, 7, and 8. This game would set up well for fantasy running back production if the 49ers had a useful one, but Gore has one touchdown over his last eight games and has topped 3.5 YPC once over the past seven weeks. Hyde remains a “breather” and change-of-pace back. Even in a great matchup, it’s hard to imagine viewing either as more than a poor flex option during the fantasy postseason.

The Raiders’ offense was terminated by the Rams’ defensive line in Week 13, and there’s reason to believe Oakland will have similar problems against San Francisco. The 49ers rank No. 4 in pass defense, No. 2 in interceptions (16), No. 2 in completion rate allowed (57.8), and No. 3 in passer rating against (76.5). Fire up San Francisco’s fantasy defense and avoid stumbling rookie Derek Carr. … Andre Holmes hasn’t scored a touchdown since October and has cleared 30 receiving yards once in his last five games. He’s a WR4/5 against the Niners’ physical press corners. … Slot man James Jones should also be written off as a fantasy playoffs option. He has one TD over his last seven games and one game over 60 yards since September. … Mychal Rivera‘s production has screeched to a halt after a fluky-hot Weeks 8-10 stretch. His stat lines since are 3-40-0, 1-8-0, and 3-21-0. Because Rivera lacks playmaking ability, he requires heavy volume to pay off as a TE1 streamer. The 49ers are 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. … Oakland’s lone potential Week 14 ray of light comes from Latavius Murray, who will return after missing last week’s loss to St. Louis with a concussion. Murray’s usage is unclear, but his matchup isn’t quite as difficult as it appears on paper. Over the past month, Saints, Giants, Redskins, and Seahawks running backs have combined to tag the Niners for 447 yards on 97 runs (4.61 YPC). For as good as rookie ILB Chris Borland has been, San Francisco still misses Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman, and Glenn Dorsey. Murray is a dart-throw flex option with some upside.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Raiders 13

Sunday Night Football

New England @ San Diego

With a 51.5-point over-under in balmy San Diego, this is one of the most attractive games on the Week 14 slate to consider “stacking” on FanDuel, and is obviously one to attack with season-long lineup decisions. The Bolts have been shredded in the air over their last seven games, allowing enemy quarterbacks to log a combined 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio over that span, while managing just six sacks. San Diego plays a lot of Cover 3 with man coverage on the perimeter, a recipe for Tom Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski success. Based on cost, Brady is my second favorite daily-league quarterback start this week, behind only Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers would be the top play if price weren’t involved. … Brady’s target distribution since the Pats’ Week 10 bye: Julian Edelman 33; Gronkowski 27; Brandon LaFell 23; Shane Vereen 15; Tim Wright 9; Danny Amendola 4. … San Diego allows the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but they’ve faced very few top-shelf TE1s this season. They did hold Julius Thomas (2-23-0) in check in Week 8, but served up eight catches for 70 yards to Clay Harbor in Week 4, and a 5-65-1 number to Charles Clay in Week 9. Chargers FS Eric Weddle is an excellent cover man, but he’s also 5-foot-11, 203 to Gronk’s 6-foot-6, 258. Strictly from a schematic standpoint, San Diego should be vulnerable to big, athletic matchup nightmares like Gronkowski in the middle of the field. I see this as a big game for Gronk. … Coming off a 5-38-2 effort in Green Bay, LaFell has a touchdown and/or 60-plus yards in six of his last seven games. He projects to run most of his Week 14 routes at Bolts RCB Shareece Wright, who got flamed by Torrey Smith (6-65-2) last week.

The Chargers used top CB Brandon Flowers to mirror Steve Smith Sr. in last week’s upset of the Ravens. Smith Sr. emerged with two yards on four targets. I’d expect Edelman to get the same treatment on Sunday night. Whereas Wright is 114th among 117 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, Flowers is No. 4 overall. … After seeing six targets and playing 75% of New England’s Week 12 offensive snaps, Tim Wright played 53% of the Patriots’ Week 13 downs and was targeted once at Lambeau. His usage has been far too unreliable for fantasy playoffs investment. … My guess is this will be a “Shane Vereen Game” where the Pats look to spread out the Chargers’ defense, picking on Wright and San Diego’s linebackers and safeties. Vereen is New England’s primary back when OC Josh McDaniels plays spread. I would bet against a big day for power runners LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. Vereen has a worrisome floor because he’s seen single-digit touches in four of the Patriots’ last seven games, but he’ll be a great bet to pay fantasy dividends if the Pats indeed attack the Bolts in the manner I’d guess they will. Chargers ILB Donald Butler has the fourth worst pass-coverage grade among 60 inside linebackers in Pro Football Focus’ grades. PFF has assigned SS Marcus Gilchrist and third safety Jahleel Addae decidedly negative coverage grades, as well.

The Pats-Bolts matchup is pretty fascinating because one team likes to play slow, ball-control offense, and the other pushes the pace. Whereas San Diego ranks 22nd in offensive plays from scrimmage, New England is sixth. It’s a good bet that Ryan Mathews will be featured heavily on Sunday night in an attempt to keep Brady off the field. Despite some difficult matchups (BAL, STL), Mathews has piled up 215 yards and two touchdowns on 40 carries (5.38 YPC) since returning from his MCL sprain three weeks ago. A candidate for 20-plus touches, Mathews is a strong RB2 play on Sunday night. … Philip Rivers went through a roughly three-game spell where he genuinely appeared injured, frequently clutching his ribs and wrenching his body in pain following offensive possessions. Rib injuries heal with time, however, and Rivers looked every bit 100% in last Sunday’s cross-country upset of Baltimore, stinging the Ravens for a season-high 383 yards on 75.6% passing and engineering six scoring drives. He got hotter and hotter as the game progressed. New England’s secondary is laden with talent and OLB Chandler Jones may return from a hip injury. The matchup isn’t ideal, but this game offers shootout potential and Rivers is capable of going toe-to-toe with any quarterback in football when healthy. Rivers is a sneaky top six or seven fantasy quarterback play this week.

Rivers’ target distribution since San Diego’s Week 10 bye: Keenan Allen 37; Eddie Royal 19; Malcom Floyd 17; Antonio Gates 13; Ladarius Green and Branden Oliver 7; Mathews and Donald Brown 5. … Allen is averaging over 12 targets per game since the open date, and is on pace for a 96-1,016-5 second NFL season. Keep in mind he won’t turn 23 until next April. In this game, I’d expect Allen to get the Darrelle Revis treatment, though it’s worth noting Reggie Wayne (5-91), Golden Tate (4-97), and Randall Cobb (7-85) all got the Revis treatment the past three weeks and were pretty productive. Allen is a solid WR3. … There is a narrative that Bill Belichick‘s defenses have historically eliminated Gates, but the Patriots and Chargers haven’t played since 2011, and Gates has scored a touchdown in three of the teams’ last four meetings. Gates’ production has slowed over the course of his age-34 season, but he’s still in the low-end TE1 mix. He’s coming off a 7-83 performance against a stout Ravens defense. New England allows the 11th most receptions (58) and second most receiving yards (786) in the league to tight ends. … The most logical expectation is for Revis to man up with Allen in this game, and for RCB Brandon Browner to follow around Floyd. On pace for 52 catches, 919 yards, and five touchdowns this season, Floyd is a fringe WR3 in non-PPR leagues and a WR4 in PPR. … Royal’s Week 13 receiving line of 9-81-1 on ten targets essentially came out of nowhere. He previously hadn’t seen more than six targets in a game since September, and failed to exceed 50 yards in seven straight weeks going in. I don’t think the outlook has suddenly changed for Royal. He’s a fantasy WR4/5.

Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Chargers 24

Monday Night Football

Atlanta @ Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in a home game since December 2 of 2012. Over that 14-game stretch — he missed time due to injury last year — Rodgers has completed 281-of-413 (68.0%) home-game throws for 3,788 yards (9.17 YPA) with a 33:0 TD-to-INT ratio. The Falcons rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA, have allowed the most passing yards in football, and rank last in the NFC in sacks (14). Rodgers is the best quarterback play in fantasy football this week. … Rodgers’ target distribution since Green Bay’s Week 9 bye: Randall Cobb 35; Jordy Nelson 34; Davante Adams 19; Eddie Lacy 15; Andrew Quarless 12; Richard Rodgers 8; James Starks 6. … The Falcons have surrendered wideout lines of 3-81-1 (Torrey Smith), 5-136 (Alshon Jeffery), 6-113 (Brandon Marshall), 7-151-1 (Golden Tate), 7-125-1 (Mike Evans), 9-109-1 (Kelvin Benjamin), 8-120 (Josh Gordon), 5-93 (Andrew Hawkins), and 7-75 (Jaron Brown) over their last eight games. Both Nelson and Cobb are WR1s this week. Desmond Trufant isn’t especially worrisome when assessing Jordy’s Week 14 draw, but there’s certainly a case to be made that Cobb has the superior matchup. While Trufant figures to follow Nelson, Cobb should spend most of this game in Falcons slot CB Josh Wilson‘s coverage. Whereas Trufant is a top-six cornerback at Pro Football Focus, Wilson has graded 62nd among 117 qualifiers in coverage. A high-floor option with plenty of ceiling, Cobb has 90-plus total yards and/or a touchdown in 10-of-12 games this season.

Adams’ snap rates are up to 71% and 80% the past two weeks. He dropped a touchdown pass in last week’s win over New England, but was otherwise fantastic with his opportunities, securing 6-of-11 targets for a career-high 121 yards. While Adams’ big game was largely a function of the Patriots assigning heavier coverage to Cobb and Nelson, his performance and increased playing time both bode positively looking ahead. If Trufant indeed shadows Jordy, Adams would get the best matchup in Green Bay’s pass-catching corps, taking on beleaguered Falcons RCB Robert McClain. McClain is the No. 106 corner at PFF. … Rookie TE Richard Rodgers has seen target totals of 3, 2, 1, and 2 over the past four weeks. Quarless’ target counts are 5, 2, 3, and 2. Simply not big parts if the Packers’ pass game, Rodgers and Quarless are safe to avoid against a Falcons defense allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … “Too Fat” Eddie Lacy has nine touchdowns over his last nine games and 100-plus total yards in five straight. If the Packers boat race the Falcons early in this game, Lacy would stand to benefit with a monster workload. Atlanta has coughed up the third most fantasy points in the league to running backs this year. Only the Bengals rank lower in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA.

The hope for Matt Ryan‘s fantasy owners is that this game evolves into a fast-paced shootout, forcing Atlanta to rack up pass attempts. That’s probably what will happen, though there are no guarantees Ryan will hold up toe-to-toe with Rodgers. Vegas has installed this game’s over-under at 56 points — highest of Week 14 — but the Falcons are whopping 12.5-point road dogs, meaning their team total is under 22 points. A different quarterback away from the Georgia Dome, Ryan’s TD-to-INT ratio through seven 2014 road games is 10:7 compared to 11:3 across five games at home. Ryan’s YPA dips from 8.72 in Atlanta to 6.45 away. The Packers’ defensive strength is in the air, where DC Dom Capers‘ unit ranks No. 14 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA, No. 4 in interceptions (15), and No. 7 in passer rating permitted (82.0). When you dive in deep, this looks like a potential trap game for Ryan. I actually think Green Bay’s defense is a sneaky Week 14 streamer. … Ryan’s target distribution since Atlanta’s Week 9 bye: Julio Jones 47; Roddy White 28; Harry Douglas 22; Devin Hester 17; Levine Toilolo 13; Jacquizz Rodgers 12; Steven Jackson 8; Devonta Freeman 3. … I think it’s well within the realm of possibility that both Jones and White see double-digit targets on Monday night. It might even be likely. Julio gets the more difficult draw versus Packers RCB Sam Shields — a top-30 corner in PFF’s coverage grades — but Jones just ripped up red-hot Patrick Peterson and remains a matchup-proof WR1.

White’s matchup is more favorable against LCB Tramon Williams, who’s allowed seven touchdown passes this season, second most among cornerbacks. As White was deactivated for Week 13 and this game is played on Monday night, Roddy got an extra-long rest period for his ankle. White was on fire before his injury, posting 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four of his previous five games. He’s a legitimate WR2 in Week 14. … Douglas (9-116) stepped up in place of Roddy against the Cardinals, but his role will go back to normal at Lambeau Field. He also has a challenging matchup with stingy Packers slot CBs Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde. Douglas is safe to ignore. … Steven Jackson‘s 101-yard rushing performance in last week’s win over Arizona was his first game over 90 rushing yards since November of 2012. It was also propped up by a 55-yard run. On S-Jax’s other 17 carries, he managed 46 yards (2.71 YPC). Green Bay’s defensive weakness is on the ground, but it’s fair to wonder if the 12.5-point underdog Falcons will keep this game competitive for long enough that Jackson ends up with much of a workload. He’s a low-floor, low-ceiling flex option.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Packers 21

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