NFL Picks Week 14: Patriots rebound at San Diego; Eagles squeak by Seahawks – NOLA.com
Yes, I get it. So what? Well, that’s going a bit too far – NFL picks by pumpkin pie and turkey stuffing are not superior to mine. At least my picks are better than Rex Ryan’s coaching. (And I have a much better chance at keeping my job. … I think.)
C’mon though, you had to appreciate how I built in the excuse last week that visions of ham and green bean casserole and anything else I could fit on my plate had me a bit preoccupied, and that it was the toughest week of the season thus far to make picks. No? That doesn’t do it for you? Well, the food was fantastic, anyway.
And it’s back to the drawing board. Good news for those who have been using these picks as a guide throughout the season, usually a stinker of a week is followed up by a set of winners.
Looking ahead at Week 14, I expect few surprises, and I probably feel better about the top five or six picks than I have about any others in quite some time.
Rebound, y’all! Who’s with me? C’mon, I said who’s with me?? Never mind. Good luck.
(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and top readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to DENNIS TERRY for being the Week 13 winner and to “saintsfan okla,” the overall leader among readers.)
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WEEK 14 PICKS (home team in bold):
THE “SURE THINGS”
16 points: DETROIT over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
It’s really tough not to put too much stock in the Lions big Thanksgiving win, especially with Tampa Bay coming to town. Oh, to heck with it. Detroit is ready to get back on track, while the Bucs are as good as the week-old turkey you haven’t brought yourself to throw out just yet. (But I’m still not about to let the Lions give up double digits.) Against the spread: Tampa Bay plus-10.5.
Last week: St. Louis over Oakland (W). Record: 3-1. ATS, Rams -6.5 (W)
15 points: SAN FRANCISCO over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Somebody is gonna be ticked off after getting shellacked by their division rival at home on national television. And since the Raiders don’t play the Rams very often, you can be safe knowing I’m not talking about them. They already got their one victory. However, even in games the Niners win, they usually play it close. Against the spread: Oakland plus-7.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Washington (W). Record: 6-2. ATS, Colts -8.5 (W)
14 points: DENVER over BUFFALO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
What was I thinking in picking the Broncos to lose two in a row last week? Expert, my Derryair. (Don’t email me, I know it’s spelled “derriere.”) One thing for sure is Denver knows it probably needs to win out to secure home-field advantage, and Peyton doesn’t want to play the AFC title game in Foxboro. Against the spread: Buffalo plus-10.5.
Last week: Miami over NY Jets (W). Record: 8-2. ATS, Jets +4.5 (W)
13 points: GREEN BAY over ATLANTA, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
Yippee, the Falcons finally proved they could beat someone outside the NFC South. Maybe, hopefully, that will be good enough to save Mike Smith’s job. (I know, wishful thinking.) Meanwhile, if you were unlucky enough to draw Aaron Rodgers in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, I feel for you, I really do. Let’s say 400 yards and four touchdowns might be on the conservative side. Against the spread: Green Bay minus-11.5.
Last week: Baltimore over San Diego (L). Record: 8-5. ATS, Ravens -4.5 (L)
FAIRLY SAFE
12 points: MINNESOTA over NY JETS, Sunday at noon
I must sound like a Vikings fan, as I sing their praises week after week. But they have been as easy to pick as any team in the NFL – they beat the bad teams, have a fight to the finish with fellow mediocre teams and lose to those they’re supposed to lose to. It’s pretty simple to tell which category the Jets fall in. Against the spread: Minnesota minus-4.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over Tampa Bay (W). Record: 13-0. ATS, Bengals -3.5 (L)
11 points: INDIANAPOLIS over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
Now, we’re trying to figure out if it’s Johnny Football time? Does that mean the Browns have given up? Yikes. All the while, the Colts just keep on going about their business, heading toward the No. 3 seed in the AFC. This might not end up being Andrew Luck’s best day, but he’ll have enough to beat this team that is headed in the wrong direction. Against the spread: Indianapolis minus-3.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over New Orleans (L). Record: 7-6. ATS, Saints +3.5 (W)
10 points: ST. LOUIS over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
I said last week that the Rams were one of the most underrated teams in football, and it mostly was because of their brutal schedule before last week. Now with another cupcake following the Raiders debacle, there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to take their physical brand on the road against one of the least-physical teams in the NFL. Might be my top ATS pick of the week. Against the spread: St. Louis minus-2.5.
Last week: Green Bay over New England (W). Record: 10-3. ATS, Packers -3.5 (W)
OUT ON A LIMB
9 points: NEW ORLEANS over CAROLINA, Sunday at noon
So the Saints can’t lose at home and can’t win on the road? They’ve now bucked both of those trends for five consecutive games. Time to turn it back around against (surprisingly) one of the league’s worst teams. Oh, but this is a ridiculous spread. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if the Saints covered, but a 5-7 team giving anyone 10 points in some books is beyond silly. Against the spread: Carolina plus-9.5.
Last week: NY Giants over Jacksonville (L – choking bums). Record: 7-5. ATS, Giants -1.5 (L – I knew this was a trap)
8 points: DALLAS over CHICAGO, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
The Bears struggled with Joique Bell last week, so what exactly is DeMarco Murray going to do to them? The Cowboys are in a must-win situation now to keep pace with the Eagles before a rematch on the road in Week 15. And if the predicted ice storm hits, whatever is left of the Chicago passing game will be grounded. Against the spread: Dallas minus-3.5.
Last week: Houston over Tennessee (W). Record: 8-5. ATS, Titans +6.5 (L)
7 points: NEW ENGLAND over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
OK, now we can go back to not doubting the Patriots, who haven’t lost two consecutive games since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2012 season. And despite winning three straight after losing three in a row, don’t be fooled by Philip Rivers and the Chargers – they have only defeated one team with a winning record since September (last week at Baltimore). Against the spread: New England minus-3.5.
Last week: Chicago over Detroit (L – the pumpkin pie picked this one). Record: 9-4. ATS, Bears +6.5 (L)
YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN
6 points: NY GIANTS over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon
Somehow, I talked myself into picking the Giants last week in a game that screamed TRAP. However, this one just screams MAKE UP. While many bettors will be finally fed up with the Turnover Machine, this is just the time to take them in a decent value pick. The Titans are the worst team in the NFL against the pass, and it looks like a good day for Eli Manning to come through with a bright spot in a season full of dark Sundays. Against the spread: NY Giants even.
Last week: Cleveland over Buffalo (L). Record: 8-5. ATS, Browns even (L)
5 points: PITTSBURGH over CINCINNATI, Sunday at noon
Jekyll and Hyde vs. Overrated. Hmmm. If we knew which Steelers team we were going to get, this would be much easier to pick. While it might be hard to believe the AFC North-leading Bengals could lose at home after winning three in a row on the road, it’s even harder to believe Pittsburgh will drop two straight for the first time this season. Second-best ATS pick of the week. Against the spread: Pittsburgh plus-3.5.
Last week: Philadelphia over Dallas (W). Record: 8-5. ATS, Eagles +2.5 (W)
4 points: ARIZONA over KANSAS CITY, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
It’s not time just yet to give up on the sinking Cardinals ship. Two huge things going for them: their fantastic defense and just as fantastic coach. And although the Chiefs will be in desperation mode, they’re simply too predictable on offense to have success in the desert. Against the spread: Arizona even.
Last week: Arizona over Atlanta (L). Record: 6-6. ATS, Cardinals -1.5 (L)
3 points: PHILADELPHIA over SEATTLE, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
This spread baffles me. A second-place team with eight wins traveling cross-country to play a division leading team with nine wins, and the second-place team is even or possibly a slight favorite? A gift this soon before Christmas? Sure, I like gifts. Against the spread: Philadelphia even.
Last week: San Francisco over Seattle (L). Record: 8-5. ATS, 49ers even (L)
2 points: MIAMI over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon
I’m rarely one to put much on any one performance (as evidenced by picking the Dolphins here despite their squeaker against the Jets), but something about the Ravens’ choke job against San Diego tells me they are not a playoff team. Conversely, the Dolphins’ defense is enough to push them to the final wild-card spot in the AFC. To do that, they can’t lose at home. Against the spread: Dolphins minus-2.5.
Last week: Minnesota over Carolina (W). Record: 8-5. ATS, Vikings -2.5 (W)
1 point: JACKSONVILLE over HOUSTON, Sunday at noon
Picks would be boring without at least one big upset special in them. A couple of things work against the Texans here with the maturation continuing for the Jaguars and the fact Houston isn’t strong enough to be betting against the “golden rule” of picking against a home dog in a division game. Two in a row for the Jags? Why the heck not? Against the spread: Jacksonville plus-4.5.
Last week: Kansas City over Denver (L – that was dumb). Record: 6-7. ATS, Chiefs +1.5 (L)
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Tuesday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 8-8. Season: 124-68 (.646).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 7-9. Season: 82-78 (.513). (Didn’t start ATS picks until Week 3.)
POINT TOTALS
Week 13: 82/136 possible points. Weekly rank: 49 out of 73. Overall: 1,044/1,522. Overall rank: T9 of 208.
Week 13 READERS leader: Dennis Terry, 107/136.
Overall READERS leader: saintsfan okla, 1,089/1,522.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 13: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 12: 10-5 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 11: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 10: 8-5 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 5-8 ATS
Week 8: 11-4 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 7: 10-5 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 6: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 5: 13-2 straight up, 7-8 ATS
Week 4: 10-3 straight up, 10-3 ATS
Week 3: 10-6 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 2: 11-5 straight up, no picks ATS
Week 1: 10-6 straight up, no picks ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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