Draft Strategy: 2015 Category Sleepers: BA
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
The following is Week 4 of the 10-part series of sleepers for each 5×5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since we are still waiting on the hot stove league, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Mixed League Sleepers
Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
Flores finished 2014 as a regular, splitting time between shortstop and second base. Despite limited range, he’s penciled in as the Mets’ starting shortstop heading into next season due to Ruben Tejada’s inability to hit right-handed pitching. Flores has been mentioned among the team’s top 10 prospects almost since age 16, and he’s rarely struggled to hit while making his way through the minor league system. For his minor league career, Flores is a .292 hitter but has continued to improve in the upper levels of the minors. He’s a .321 hitter at Triple-A, albeit with the help of hitter-friendly Las Vegas, and also hit .311 during his 66 games at Double-A in 2012.
The question is whether his minor league performance will transition to the majors, but we’re already starting to see some positive signs. Flores hit .285 in 200 at-bats against right-handed pitching last season, and started to pick up the pace as a regular over the last two months as a .260 hitter. Where he made the most progress was his contact rate at 86.1 percent, a solid indicator for increasing his batting average. Increased contact has been one of Flores’ calling cards over the last few seasons in the minors that has allowed him to hit for such a high average, and it is showing in his major league performance after some initial struggles in 2013. It’s realistic to hope for a .280-plus hitter in 2015, with potential double-digit home run pop adding to the attraction.
Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks
While he did show some pop, Lamb was overmatched in his first taste of the majors last season. That’s not uncommon, nor should it make us overlook his potential. Lamb emerged quietly as one of the best prospects in Arizona’s farm system over the last few seasons, hitting above .300 during every significant stint in the minors. Last season was one of his best performances, hitting .318-14-79 in 103 games at Double-A Mobile. He played only five games at Triple-A Reno before getting the call to the majors, as Arizona wanted to get a long look late in the year after trading Martin Prado.
The look Arizona got in the majors was in no way representative of Lamb’s minor league performance. Lamb fanned nearly 28 percent of the time, well above his career 21 percent strikeout rate in the minors. It’s still a limited sample size to judge from, and Lamb did make some progress in September. Arizona has been quick to get in the fray this offseason by adding Yasmany Tomas and Jeremy Hellickson to their squad, but the market at the hot corner seems very limited and Arizona hasn’t been mentioned in many of the rumors. It remains to be seen what the new front office regime thinks of Lamb, but it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen of him in the minors. It’s also notable that Lamb stands ahead of fellow Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Drury, a potentially strong future hot corner in his own right who hit .299-23-95 between High-A and Double-A last season. Lamb will definitely get an opportunity to win the third base job in spring training if the team doesn’t make any unexpected, high-profile moves to address third base. Added are the advantages of playing at Chase Field, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game. Lamb could face more growing pains, but his minor league track record and opportunity is too great to overlook in a very favorable situation.
Jose Peraza, 2B, Braves
Atlanta moved Tommy La Stella early in the offseason, and at the time of this writing, Peraza has a solid shot of winning the second base job this spring. Already well regarded defensively, Peraza made huge strides with his bat between High-A and Double-A last season. He ended the season hitting .339 with only 47 strikeouts in 469 at-bats. He already had a strong contact rate before last season, but 2014 was an even bigger step forward. Fantasy owners should be just as excited about Peraza’s speed, after consecutive seasons with at least 60 steals in the minors. Scouts see Peraza as a potential Gold Glove second baseman who would likely still be at shortstop if the Braves didn’t have Andrelton Simmons.
The blemishes on Peraza’s offense are his poor walk rate (17 walks in 2014) and lack of power. The lack of patience could expose him against more advanced pitching, and also prevent him from earning a spot atop the lineup initially. Still, Peraza’s bat is very exciting for fantasy owners with the combination of incredible contact and speed to leg out infield singles. Peraza has played only 44 games at Double-A, so it’s very possible that the Braves will sign a placeholder at second base to serve as the starter for the first half of the season. More likely with a team that looks to be rebuilding, Peraza will get a long look in spring with a good possibility of becoming the team’s regular. The fantasy skillset is quite similar to Jose Altuve with the hope of an immediate .300 hitter.
Josh Rutledge, SS, Rockies
Rockies manager Walt Weiss seems obsessed with D.J. LeMahieu’s defense, and that’s the only viable excuse for playing him ahead of Rutledge last season. LeMahieu posted a pitiful .663 OPS as a Rockies regular last season, and was successful on only 50 percent of his stolen base attempts. Rutledge, on the other hand, had a .728 OPS and showed signs of even better offense.
While spending most of June through the end of the season on the major league roster, Rutledge hit above .300 in three out of those four months. The only exception was a .159 batting average in August, spurred by a respiratory illness. As with most Rockies hitters, Rutledge performed better at Coors Field with a batting average that was 100 points higher at home. However, Rutledge’s minor league history shows a hitter that has potential anywhere as a career .328 hitter. Most of Colorado’s minor league affiliates play in hitter-friendly environments, but it’s not as if that changes in Denver. Rutledge’s flashes show terrific batting average potential if the Rockies give him the regular second base job, or he finds playing time again at shortstop for the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki.
Single League Sleepers
Tommy La Stella, 2B, Cubs
The Cubs acquired La Stella early this offseason to provide infield depth, and possibly a fallback plan should Javier Baez not pan out at second base in 2015. La Stella looked like a potential placeholder in Atlanta for the aforementioned Jose Peraza, but he struggled late in the year. However, he matched his minor league profile early on in his promotion with a great eye (19/20 BB/K) and .292 batting average prior to the break.
La Stella was a terrific minor league batting average hitter, with a career .322 average and more walks than strikeouts. The only level he failed to hit .300 was Triple-A, where he hit .293 in 167 at-bats last season. He has limited pop and speed, but also has the potential to be an on-base machine for the Cubs. That’s a skill the Cubs front office values highly, and the pedigree shows a useful hitter for NL-only owners should Baez play as poorly as he did late last season.
Tyler Naquin, OF, Indians
Despite missing time to injury, Naquin had a breakout season in 2014. The former first-round pick hit .313-4-30 with 14 steals in 304 at-bats, continuing the momentum he built during a solid Arizona Fall League campaign. Naquin has made adjustments to his swing over the last year, showing a pure line drive stroke that should allow him to hit for the type of batting average Cleveland projected of him. He’s a capable center fielder, and already a backup plan if Michael Bourn continues to struggle staying healthy. His bat could also be used in David Murphy’s stead, as the veteran is coming off of consecutive mediocre offensive seasons. The most likely scenario is a couple months in the minors to start the year before Naquin sees a call-up as a bench player or fill-in, but the batting average and speed could still help in AL-only leagues.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL
With the trade of James Ramsey last season and unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras in the offseason, Piscotty becomes the Cardinals’ best hitting prospect in the upper levels of the minors. Piscotty’s biggest asset is clearly his ability to hit for average with a great contact rate and a .292 batting average in three minor league seasons. Piscotty struck out only 61 times in 500 at-bats at Triple-A Memphis last season. He’s shown unwavering plate discipline during his three minor league seasons, and has nearly identical batting averages vs. right-handers and lefties over his career. With Jason Heyward’s injury history and Matt Holliday starting to decline, it’s not impossible that Piscotty would find regular at-bats at some point this season. He’s a certain pick up in NL-only leagues when he does find the field.
Kevin Plawecki, C, NYM
Arguably the Mets’ best position prospect, Plawecki had his second consecutive great year at the plate by hitting .309-11-64 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. He has the prototypically great eye for a catcher, with a 30/48 BB/K ratio last season. Plawecki has now hit above .300 in consecutive seasons, and the former first-round pick’s contact rate has transferred through Triple-A thus far. There is an obvious road block in New York with Travis d’Arnaud considered the long-term catcher in New York, so the Mets could fetch something for Plawecki. Such a move could push up his timetable to the majors, and he’s already not far off after playing 43 games at Triple-A last season. The capability of hitting for batting average at a premium position should be very attractive for single-league fantasy owners when he does likely arrive in 2015.
The following is Week 4 of the 10-part series of sleepers for each 5×5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since we are still waiting on the hot stove league, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Mixed League Sleepers
Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
Flores finished 2014 as a regular, splitting time between shortstop and second base. Despite limited range, he’s penciled in as the Mets’ starting shortstop heading into next season due to Ruben Tejada’s inability to hit right-handed pitching. Flores has been mentioned among the team’s top 10 prospects almost since age 16, and he’s rarely struggled to hit while making his way through the minor league system. For his minor league career, Flores is a .292 hitter but has continued to improve in the upper levels of the minors. He’s a .321 hitter at Triple-A, albeit with the help of hitter-friendly Las Vegas, and also hit .311 during his 66 games at Double-A in 2012.
The question is whether his minor league performance will transition to the majors, but we’re already starting to see some positive signs. Flores hit .285 in 200 at-bats against right-handed pitching last season, and started to pick up the pace as a regular over the last two months as a .260 hitter. Where he made the most progress was his contact rate at 86.1 percent, a solid indicator for increasing his batting average. Increased contact has been one of Flores’ calling cards over the last few seasons in the minors that has allowed him to hit for such a high average, and it is showing in his major league performance after some initial struggles in 2013. It’s realistic to hope for a .280-plus hitter in 2015, with potential double-digit home run pop adding to the attraction.
Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks
While he did show some pop, Lamb was overmatched in his first taste of the majors last season. That’s not uncommon, nor should it make us overlook his potential. Lamb emerged quietly as one of the best prospects in Arizona’s farm system over the last few seasons, hitting above .300 during every significant stint in the minors. Last season was one of his best performances, hitting .318-14-79 in 103 games at Double-A Mobile. He played only five games at Triple-A Reno before getting the call to the majors, as Arizona wanted to get a long look late in the year after trading Martin Prado.
The look Arizona got in the majors was in no way representative of Lamb’s minor league performance. Lamb fanned nearly 28 percent of the time, well above his career 21 percent strikeout rate in the minors. It’s still a limited sample size to judge from, and Lamb did make some progress in September. Arizona has been quick to get in the fray this offseason by adding Yasmany Tomas and Jeremy Hellickson to their squad, but the market at the hot corner seems very limited and Arizona hasn’t been mentioned in many of the rumors. It remains to be seen what the new front office regime thinks of Lamb, but it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen of him in the minors. It’s also notable that Lamb stands ahead of fellow Diamondbacks prospect Brandon Drury, a potentially strong future hot corner in his own right who hit .299-23-95 between High-A and Double-A last season. Lamb will definitely get an opportunity to win the third base job in spring training if the team doesn’t make any unexpected, high-profile moves to address third base. Added are the advantages of playing at Chase Field, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the game. Lamb could face more growing pains, but his minor league track record and opportunity is too great to overlook in a very favorable situation.
Jose Peraza, 2B, Braves
Atlanta moved Tommy La Stella early in the offseason, and at the time of this writing, Peraza has a solid shot of winning the second base job this spring. Already well regarded defensively, Peraza made huge strides with his bat between High-A and Double-A last season. He ended the season hitting .339 with only 47 strikeouts in 469 at-bats. He already had a strong contact rate before last season, but 2014 was an even bigger step forward. Fantasy owners should be just as excited about Peraza’s speed, after consecutive seasons with at least 60 steals in the minors. Scouts see Peraza as a potential Gold Glove second baseman who would likely still be at shortstop if the Braves didn’t have Andrelton Simmons.
The blemishes on Peraza’s offense are his poor walk rate (17 walks in 2014) and lack of power. The lack of patience could expose him against more advanced pitching, and also prevent him from earning a spot atop the lineup initially. Still, Peraza’s bat is very exciting for fantasy owners with the combination of incredible contact and speed to leg out infield singles. Peraza has played only 44 games at Double-A, so it’s very possible that the Braves will sign a placeholder at second base to serve as the starter for the first half of the season. More likely with a team that looks to be rebuilding, Peraza will get a long look in spring with a good possibility of becoming the team’s regular. The fantasy skillset is quite similar to Jose Altuve with the hope of an immediate .300 hitter.
Josh Rutledge, SS, Rockies
Rockies manager Walt Weiss seems obsessed with D.J. LeMahieu’s defense, and that’s the only viable excuse for playing him ahead of Rutledge last season. LeMahieu posted a pitiful .663 OPS as a Rockies regular last season, and was successful on only 50 percent of his stolen base attempts. Rutledge, on the other hand, had a .728 OPS and showed signs of even better offense.
While spending most of June through the end of the season on the major league roster, Rutledge hit above .300 in three out of those four months. The only exception was a .159 batting average in August, spurred by a respiratory illness. As with most Rockies hitters, Rutledge performed better at Coors Field with a batting average that was 100 points higher at home. However, Rutledge’s minor league history shows a hitter that has potential anywhere as a career .328 hitter. Most of Colorado’s minor league affiliates play in hitter-friendly environments, but it’s not as if that changes in Denver. Rutledge’s flashes show terrific batting average potential if the Rockies give him the regular second base job, or he finds playing time again at shortstop for the oft-injured Troy Tulowitzki.
Single League Sleepers
Tommy La Stella, 2B, Cubs
The Cubs acquired La Stella early this offseason to provide infield depth, and possibly a fallback plan should Javier Baez not pan out at second base in 2015. La Stella looked like a potential placeholder in Atlanta for the aforementioned Jose Peraza, but he struggled late in the year. However, he matched his minor league profile early on in his promotion with a great eye (19/20 BB/K) and .292 batting average prior to the break.
La Stella was a terrific minor league batting average hitter, with a career .322 average and more walks than strikeouts. The only level he failed to hit .300 was Triple-A, where he hit .293 in 167 at-bats last season. He has limited pop and speed, but also has the potential to be an on-base machine for the Cubs. That’s a skill the Cubs front office values highly, and the pedigree shows a useful hitter for NL-only owners should Baez play as poorly as he did late last season.
Tyler Naquin, OF, Indians
Despite missing time to injury, Naquin had a breakout season in 2014. The former first-round pick hit .313-4-30 with 14 steals in 304 at-bats, continuing the momentum he built during a solid Arizona Fall League campaign. Naquin has made adjustments to his swing over the last year, showing a pure line drive stroke that should allow him to hit for the type of batting average Cleveland projected of him. He’s a capable center fielder, and already a backup plan if Michael Bourn continues to struggle staying healthy. His bat could also be used in David Murphy’s stead, as the veteran is coming off of consecutive mediocre offensive seasons. The most likely scenario is a couple months in the minors to start the year before Naquin sees a call-up as a bench player or fill-in, but the batting average and speed could still help in AL-only leagues.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL
With the trade of James Ramsey last season and unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras in the offseason, Piscotty becomes the Cardinals’ best hitting prospect in the upper levels of the minors. Piscotty’s biggest asset is clearly his ability to hit for average with a great contact rate and a .292 batting average in three minor league seasons. Piscotty struck out only 61 times in 500 at-bats at Triple-A Memphis last season. He’s shown unwavering plate discipline during his three minor league seasons, and has nearly identical batting averages vs. right-handers and lefties over his career. With Jason Heyward’s injury history and Matt Holliday starting to decline, it’s not impossible that Piscotty would find regular at-bats at some point this season. He’s a certain pick up in NL-only leagues when he does find the field.
Kevin Plawecki, C, NYM
Arguably the Mets’ best position prospect, Plawecki had his second consecutive great year at the plate by hitting .309-11-64 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. He has the prototypically great eye for a catcher, with a 30/48 BB/K ratio last season. Plawecki has now hit above .300 in consecutive seasons, and the former first-round pick’s contact rate has transferred through Triple-A thus far. There is an obvious road block in New York with Travis d’Arnaud considered the long-term catcher in New York, so the Mets could fetch something for Plawecki. Such a move could push up his timetable to the majors, and he’s already not far off after playing 43 games at Triple-A last season. The capability of hitting for batting average at a premium position should be very attractive for single-league fantasy owners when he does likely arrive in 2015.
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