College Football Picks Week 15: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule – Bleacher Report
There is a new No. 1 in college football heading into Week 15, which is chock-full of conference championship tilts with huge implications for the College Football Playoff.
Alabama takes the top spot in the Associated Press poll after beating rival Auburn 55-44 in the highest-scoring Iron Bowl ever. Quarterback Blake Sims made a startling mid-game turnaround to lead his team to victory and finished with five total touchdowns and three interceptions.
Wide receiver Amari Cooper put in a magisterial performance, catching 13 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
The AP pointed out how rare it is for a team to move from second to first in the poll this late in the season (h/t ESPN.com): “The last time the No. 2 team had more first-place votes than the No. 1 team this late in the season was Nov. 25, 1968, when No. 1 Ohio State had 21.5 first-places votes to USC‘s 24.5.”
Florida State slipped to second after a middling win over Florida, Oregon held strong at third with a blowout victory in the Civil War over Oregon State and TCU is now in the Top Four and should be bullish on its playoff hopes after Mississippi State lost to Ole Miss 31-17 in the Egg Bowl.
Here is the Associated Press Top 25 heading into Week 15, followed by picks for every top team in action and a closer look at the game of the week.
AP Top 25 Predictions for Week 15
Date | Time (ET) | TV | Matchup | Spread | Prediction (against spread) |
Dec. 5 | 9 p.m. | Fox | No. 11 Arizona vs. No. 2 Oregon* | Oregon (-13.5) | Oregon |
Dec. 6 | 12 p.m. | ABC | Iowa State at No. 5 TCU | TCU (-33) | TCU |
Dec. 6 | 12 p.m. | ESPN 2 | Louisiana Tech at No. 24 Marshall | Marshall (-14.5) | Marshall |
Dec. 6 | 3:30 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 | Oklahoma State at No. 20 Oklahoma | Oklahoma (-19.5) | Oklahoma State |
Dec. 6 | 4 p.m. | CBS | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 17 Missouri | Alabama (-14) | Alabama |
Dec. 6 | 7:45 p.m. | ESPN | No. 12 Kansas State at No. 7 Baylor | TBD | Baylor |
Dec. 6 | 8 p.m. | ABC | No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech | Florida State (-3.5) | Georgia Tech |
Dec. 6 | 8:17 p.m. | Fox | No. 14 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Ohio State | Wisconsin (-3) | Ohio State |
Dec. 6 | 10 p.m. | CBS | Fresno State at No. 23 Boise State | Boise State (-19.5) | Boise State |
ESPN.com, OddsShark.com, *neutral location
Note: odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Monday, Dec. 1, at 4 a.m. ET.
Game of the Week: No. 14 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Ohio State
A late injury to a major star, huge playoff implications and a star running back make the Big Ten Championship Game—to be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis—between Ohio State and Wisconsin the can’t-miss event of Week 15.
Wisconsin clinched a spot in the Big Ten title match with a 34-24 Week 14 win over Minnesota. The Buckeyes had already earned a berth, but they have a new challenge to deal with coming into the biggest game of the season.
Ohio State’s dreams of a spot in the College Football Playoff took a major hit when freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season after suffering a broken ankle in the Buckeyes’ 42-28 win over rival Michigan on Saturday, per ESPN.com’s Austin Ward.
Barrett, who had set the Big Ten record for total touchdowns in a season earlier in that contest, was instrumental in turning Ohio State into one of the more potent offenses in college. The Buckeyes currently rank fifth in points per game (44.1) and 11th in total offense with 503.4 yards per game.
When star quarterback Braxton Miller was lost for the season with a shoulder injury back in summer, few could have foreseen Barrett taking the team so close to the top.
Now, it’s Cardale Jones’ turn.
GAIL BURTON/Associated Press
The sophomore third-stringer will play a huge role in determining whether or not the Buckeyes can pip TCU and stave off Baylor and Mississippi State for the final playoff spot (assuming Oregon, Alabama and Florida State don’t implode and hold their places).
Jones has attempted just 19 passes in his collegiate career, but coach Urban Meyer has implied the playbook will be open to Jones on Saturday.
“It’s his show,” he said, via Fox Sports Ohio’s Zac Jackson. “He’s got the keys to the car. He’s already been in studying film and getting ready to go.”
Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch also provided this nugget of insight from Meyer:
Meyer on Cardale vs. Barrett: Said Jones is bigger, faster and has better arm. “He has a cannon for an arm.”
— Bill Rabinowitz (@brdispatch) November 30, 2014
Of course, if his athleticism was so important, he would have beaten out Barrett this summer. Jones couldn’t really have much of a tougher test for his first start at the big show. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 16.8 points per game this season. However, Cleveland.com’s Ari Wasserman believes the Buckeyes can produce enough points to win with Jones running the show:
That means relying a little more on Ezekiel Elliott to run the ball, more jet sweeps to Jalin Marshall, short slants to Michael Thomas. The Buckeyes have the playmakers to move the football without relying on Jones to do too much.
And because Jones is a 6-foot-6, 250-pounds, maybe a few quarterbacks runs to the right and left.
Herman has made three quarterbacks look great in his system – Braxton Miller, Kenny Guiton and Barrett. Maybe outside of Barrett’s start vs. Virginia Tech, none of them have had a truly bad performance.
Wisconsin’s own offense should prove to be a tough test for the Buckeyes defenders. Quarterback Joel Stave has done well in his game manager role in recent weeks, and the team puts up 334.3 rushing yards per game, most of them coming from the imperial Melvin Gordon.
The rampaging running back, who looks like a Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson at times, has 2,260 yards and 29 total touchdowns on the season. He is closing out a historic campaign and making a run through the record books, per SportsCenter:
Melvin Gordon has 2,260 rush yards on year, 4th most in FBS history behind Marcus Allen, Kevin Smith & Barry Sanders. pic.twitter.com/jx3eYwPTRY
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 30, 2014
The Buckeyes have a fairly soft run defense, so don’t expect them to shut down Gordon. What they can do, is try to force Stave into making mistakes when the Badgers do opt to pass the ball. They’ve forced 25 turnovers this season and will need all the extra possessions they can get in this one.
However, Badgers coach Gary Andersen feels his signal-caller is settling into a groove with seven starts under his belt in 2014.
“I really believe that he feels comfortable with his protection now,” he said, via Fox Sports Wisconsin’s Jesse Temple. “Probably as comfortable, I believe, as he’s been since we’ve all been here together. If this gets blocked up, I am going to have a chance to throw the ball. He is seeing the field very, very well.”
Who will win the Big Ten Championship?
Who will win the Big Ten Championship?
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Ohio State
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Wisconsin
Ohio State should win this game, but Jones won’t be able to deliver a big enough win for the Buckeyes to make the College Football Playoff.
That spot should go to TCU, who has a big opportunity to shine against a lowly Iowa State squad. If the scoreline is as lopsided as the spread indicates, the Horned Frogs will catch the eyes of those on the playoff committee and join the Seminoles, Crimson Tide and Ducks.
Prediction: Ohio State 24-21 Wisconsin
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