Matchups: Silva’s Week 13 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Washington @ Indianapolis

Skins-Colts has a 51-point over-under, third highest among Sunday’s games. As the Colts are 9.5-point favorites, their Vegas team total is just over 30 points. Indianapolis’ offense disappointed in Week 12 versus Jacksonville’s underrated pass rush, but is a good bet to rebound in a major way against Washington’s sieve-ish secondary. The Redskins rank second-to-last in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA and have allowed opposing passers to compile a 21:4 TD-to-INT ratio against them. With Peyton Manning trekking to Arrowhead and Aaron Rodgers facing the Patriots at Lambeau, Andrew Luck is this week’s top fantasy quarterback play inside domed Lucas Oil Stadium. … The Luck-T.Y. Hilton “stack” remains in play after Hilton shredded the Jaguars for 137 total yards and a score in last week’s victory. I used similar stats in last week’s Matchups column and they’re still relevant: Hilton has averaged 84.8 yards with 12 touchdowns across 27 career games indoors or beneath a retractable roof. This contest will be played indoors. Hilton’s average is 50.1 yards in outdoor games with just four TDs in a 15-game sample size. Over the course of his career, Hilton’s TD rate is 44.4% beneath a dome or in an environment with a retractable roof. His TD rate is 26.7% outdoors. Hilton is a high-ceiling WR1 play against Washington’s sham of a pass defense. … The Redskins allow the 15th most fantasy points to tight ends, creating a middling matchup for whomever Indy trots out at the position this week. Dwayne Allen (ankle) is shaping up as a game-time decision. Coby Fleener (2-28-0) was among Week 12’s biggest duds. If Allen does not play against Washington, however, Fleener would remain a top 10-12 start at fantasy football’s weakest position.

Friday Update: Allen has been ruled out for Week 13. With Allen out of the lineup last week, Fleener’s snap rate climbed from 60% over his previous two games to 75% against the Jags. Fleener disappointed along with the rest of the non-Hilton Colts, but I think this is a solid bounce-back spot. And at his $5,800 FanDuel cost, Fleener warrants a long look as a tournament play.

Reggie Wayne has been a frustrating player to try to project on a weekly basis. He’s lost several steps at age 36 and therefore requires heavy volume to pay fantasy dividends. And Wayne has still come up short in some games when he’s been peppered with targets. He’s just a WR3 option against the Redskins, although the plus matchup makes Wayne an attractive PPR option. All of the Skins’ defensive backs are vulnerable in coverage. … The Colts may quietly be transitioning away from dead-legged Hakeem Nicks and toward big, physical, explosive rookie Donte Moncrief as their No. 3 receiver. Moncrief out-snapped Nicks 30 to 28 in Week 12 and caught 4-of-4 targets for 38 yards, adding a four-yard rushing attempt. Nicks was targeted just once. Moncrief isn’t quite reliable enough for season-long WR3 treatment yet, but he’s an intriguing dart-throw at near-minimum price on FanDuel. He has enough talent and a favorable enough matchup to explode indoors against Washington’s weak back end. … The Colts transitioned to a two-back timeshare with Ahmad Bradshaw going on I.R. last week. Dan Herron got the start, played 45% of Indy’s offensive snaps, and parlayed 17 touches into 96 yards. Trent Richardson got more playing time (54%), but fewer touches (13). He did execute a one-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. Coming off a five-catch game, Herron looks like the slightly better option in PPR leagues, while T-Rich is the favorite for scoring-position carries and therefore holds more non-PPR value. One of the reasons I like Luck so much this week is the Redskins play stout run defense, limiting enemy running backs to 3.64 YPC. The Colts are going to have to air it out to generate consistent ball movement. Herron and Richardson are low-ceiling flex plays.

The Redskins’ benching of Robert Griffin III is a blow to Alfred Morris‘ Week 13 outlook. Even if it had increasingly become theoretical, the mere threat of RG3 running put stress on defenses that was borne out in Morris’ production with Griffin under center. Since both entered the league in 2012, Morris has 622 carries for 3,042 yards (4.89 YPC) and 22 touchdowns in RG3’s 33 career starts. Morris has rushed 182 times for 672 yards (3.69 YPC) and just five scores in his 10 career games where Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy has started. The Colts are vulnerable to power runners, as Jonas Gray showed a few weeks ago. They’ll also surely sell out to stop Morris. I liked Morris as a borderline RB1 when it looked like RG3 was going to start early in the week. With McCoy at the controls, I’d downgrade Morris to a mid-range to higher-end RB2. … McCoy has appeared in two games this year, engineering a game-winning drive against the Titans in Week 7 and leading a Week 8 road upset of Dallas. Although McCoy’s talent is painfully limited, he clearly has a good feel for coach Jay Gruden‘s offense, having completed 85.7% of his throws with a 10.2 YPA, one touchdown, and one pick. This game’s indoor environment and high over-under put McCoy on the two-quarterback-league map. I wouldn’t be opposed to considering McCoy as a QB1 streamer in 14- and 16-team leagues. McCoy’s insertion over struggling Griffin also makes the Colts’ fantasy defense a less attractive Week 13 play.

Griffin’s benching was very much earned. According to PFF’s Mike Clay, the Redskins’ offense is averaging 1.5 touchdowns per game with Griffin at quarterback this year. As a team, the Jaguars are dead last in the league at 1.6 touchdowns per game. The Redskins are averaging 2.6 touchdowns per game without RG3. … McCoy’s target distribution on the season: Jordan Reed 11; Pierre Garcon 8; DeSean Jackson 7; Andre Roberts 6; Niles Paul 4; Roy Helu 3; Darrel Young 2. … As McCoy has peppered his tight ends with targets during his time under center, Reed is an enticing TE1 play at Indianapolis. McCoy is a between-the-numbers passer, which is where Reed runs the majority of his routes. Indy allows the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends. … McCoy playing also gives D-Jax some hope. The duo hooked up six times for 136 yards in Washington’s Week 8 upset of Dallas, and Jackson runs most of his patterns at left cornerbacks. He should avoid Colts RCB Vontae Davis for the majority of this game, instead squaring off with LCB Greg Toler. Jackson is an upside WR2/3 in Indy. … Garcon posted a 4-47-0 line in McCoy’s start against the Cowboys. Targeted six or fewer times in eight consecutive games and on pace for 67 receptions one year after catching 113, Garcon has been reduced to a WR4 in Gruden’s system. He’ll tangle with Davis more often than not in this game.

Score Prediction: Colts 33, Redskins 23

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Tennessee @ Houston

Most of his production has come with Tennessee playing from behind, but you could still make a good argument that Zach Mettenberger has been the best rookie quarterback in this year’s class. Through four starts, Mettenberger is 78-of-131 passing (59.5%) for 1,086 yards (8.29 YPA) with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. Mettenberger had box-score success against this same Texans defense in late October, throwing for 299 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while completing 65.9 percent of his throws. With multiple TD passes and 260-plus passing yards in three of his last four games, Mettenberger has earned a two-QB-league start beneath the Reliant Stadium dome. Beyond desperation scenarios, it would still be a bit of a stretch to view a sixth-round rookie quarterback as a viable QB1 streamer. … Mettenberger’s target distribution on the year: Kendall Wright 28; Justin Hunter 27; Delanie Walker 23; Nate Washington 17; Bishop Sankey 11; Dexter McCluster 9; Chase Coffman 7; Leon Washington 6; Derek Hagan 3. … The targets have been there for Wright, but the production hasn’t been with Mettenberger at the helm. Wright’s stat lines in Mettenberger starts are 3-53-0, 4-53-0, 4-70-0, and 1-28-0. Wright has settled in as a fantasy WR4. … Although Walker missed about six quarters with a concussion, adversely affecting his target totals, he’s looked like Mettenberger’s favorite and most reliable pass option in the actual games. Coming off a 5-155 shredding of Philadelphia, Walker is back in the TE1 mix, even against a Texans defense that permits the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Recent No. 1 receiver stat lines allowed by Houston: 6-158-2 (Jeremy Maclin); 9-112-1 (James Jones); 5-107-1 (Victor Cruz); 4-30-1 (Sammy Watkins); 9-85-1 (Dez Bryant); 9-223-1 (T.Y. Hilton); 9-90 (Antonio Brown); 4-31-1 (Justin Hunter); 6-97-1 (Andrew Hawkins); 12-121 (A.J. Green). I suppose it’s debatable whether Hunter is Tennessee’s “No. 1” wideout, but he is certainly the team’s top vertical threat and scored a 12-yard touchdown in garbage time of these clubs’ Week 8 meeting, finishing with ten targets. The outlook for Hunter hasn’t changed all year. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 option with a limited skill set who will hurt you if he isn’t involved in a given week. More often than not this season, Hunter hasn’t been involved. … The Texans rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and allow 4.27 yards per carry to running backs. This would normally be an above-average matchup for Bishop Sankey, but the Titans’ losses of LT Taylor Lewan (high ankle sprain) and C Brian Schwenke (knee) bode poorly for the outlook of Tennessee’s run-game unit. When these teams played earlier this season, Sankey managed 60 scoreless yards on ten touches. Averaging 3.86 YPC on 112 rushing attempts, Sankey has revealed himself to be a sub-par NFL feature back as a rookie. He also lost a pair of red-zone scores to Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster last week. Sankey is a low-ceiling flex option at Houston.

Regardless of who lines up at running back for the Texans on Sunday, expect a ground-based approach from coach Bill O’Brien. Reinstalled as Houston’s starter due to Ryan Mallett‘s year-ending pectoral tear, Ryan Fitzpatrick was freelancing in the Texans’ passing game too much for O’Brien’s liking before going down, and refusing to make throws that were there. The 5-6 Texans are still in the Wild Card hunt, and almost certainly won’t put their playoff chances on Fitzpatrick’s back. Over their last four games, the Titans have served up 717 yards and seven rushing TDs on 134 carries (5.35 YPC) to opposing running backs. Alfred Blue is a quality RB2 if he gets the nod. Arian Foster is a top-shelf RB1 if his balky groin allows him to play. … Fitzpatrick’s target distribution on the season: Andre Johnson 87; DeAndre Hopkins 64; Foster 42; Damaris Johnson 24; Garrett Graham 18; Blue 7. … The Texans and Titans squared off in late October. Johnson emerged with seven catches for 55 yards on a team-high 12 targets, while Hopkins went 5-95 on 11 looks. Both Houston wideouts are fantasy WR3s. Based on his consistent target volume with Fitzpatrick at the helm, Johnson would appear to be the stronger PPR option. Hopkins has demonstrated quite a bit more big-play ability this year. Lean toward “Nuk” as a non-PPR start. … I briefly considered Fitzpatrick as a FanDuel tournament punt. His cost is near-minimum at $5,000, and he is capable of random productive box-score games. But this game has a forbidding 43-point over-under, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Fitzpatrick finished with fewer than 25 pass attempts. I’d view him as a low-ceiling and low-floor two-quarterback-league play. Rookie Tom Savage is waiting in the wings should Fitzpatrick struggle.

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Titans 20

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Cleveland @ Buffalo

Browns-Bills has a 41-point over-under, lowest of all Sunday and Monday’s games. Aside from usual suspects, avoid getting cute trying to start players in this one. … Josh Gordon, of course, is one of those usual suspects. Good to go as an elite fantasy WR1, look for Gordon to build on last week’s 69% snap rate in his second game off suspension. Brian Hoyer targeted Gordon on a whopping 40% of his Week 12 throws. Defensive back matchups don’t matter for Gordon, but Buffalo’s aren’t worrisome. Gordon faced a similar-looking Bills defense in Week 5 last season and went 4-86-1 with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. … Another usual suspect is Isaiah Crowell, who has earned every-week RB2 treatment. He’s played 63% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps the past two games, handling 28 touches and averaging 5.73 YPC. Terrance West has played 26%, touching the football 20 times with a 3.89 yards-per-carry clip. West did out-touch Crowell 15 to 12 in last week’s win over Atlanta, but Crowell got more playing time. Crowell also stands to benefit from the eventual return of Jordan Cameron (concussion), a seam-stretching tight end who along with Gordon will ensure opponents can’t stack the box with eight defenders. Buffalo’s once-stout run defense has softened recently, coughing up 484 yards and four rushing TDs on 98 carries (4.94 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last five games. Lock in Crowell as an upside RB2. West would be a lower-ceiling flex.

Hoyer’s target distribution in Gordon’s first game back: Gordon 16; Miles Austin 8; Andrew Hawkins 5; Gary Barnidge 3; Travis Benjamin and Taylor Gabriel 2; Jim Dray and West 1. … Hawkins went 5-93 in Gordon’s return, but his targets took a big hit (5) and may sink further if Cameron plays against the Bills. “Baby Hawk” is a tough sell as more than a low-end WR3 in PPR leagues. … The wide receiver snap rates with Gordon back against Atlanta were as follows: Gordon 69%; Austin 62%; Hawkins 59%; Gabriel 28%; Benjamin 27%. The Browns’ three-wideout base has Gordon at “X,” Austin at “Z,” and Hawkins in the slot, with Benjamin and Gabriel functioning as sub-package receivers. … The Bills have surrendered the 11th most receptions (53) to tight ends, but are 25th in receiving yards (467) and 28th in fantasy points allowed. Still, a healthy Cameron is at very worst a low-end TE1 in a year where Coby Fleener and Heath Miller, and rotational players Zach Ertz and Tim Wright have all been top-15 tight end scorers. As opposed to knee and ankle injuries, players coming back from concussions aren’t typically “limited” when they’re fully cleared to play. Assuming he gets the green light, Cameron should be a full-time player at Buffalo.

Saturday Update: Cameron was formally ruled out for Week 13 on Saturday. He will miss his fifth straight game. Cameron does seem to be close to returning and should be rostered by tight end-needy owners for the stretch run. Cameron will be a top-12 option if he’s available during the fantasy playoffs.

Kyle Orton successfully dinked and dunked the Bills to a Week 12 blowout win over the Jets. Orton is taking care of the football and for the most part avoiding sacks, but Buffalo’s passing game lacks an explosive element with Orton failing to challenge defenses outside the numbers, and this game’s anemic over-under renders Orton a low-end two-QB-league play. Difficult to throw on this season, Cleveland boasts a top-seven pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and has limited opposing quarterbacks to a combined 75.4 passer rating, the stingiest clip in the AFC. The Browns don’t get a lot of pass rush, but they do force takeaways. Cleveland leads the AFC in interceptions (15). … Orton’s target distribution through seven starts: Sammy Watkins 47; Robert Woods 46; Scott Chandler 35; Chris Hogan 34; Fred Jackson 27; Bryce Brown 20; Chris Gragg 8; Anthony Dixon 7; Marquise Goodwin 4; Mike Williams 3. … It may feel like chasing last week’s points, but Woods has another nice matchup against the Browns. Joe Haden will likely chase Watkins all over the field, leaving Woods to work against burnable Buster Skrine and UDFA rookie slot corner K’Waun Williams. Woods has seen 24 targets over the past three weeks, playing 82% of Buffalo’s snaps during that span. He’s worth a serious look for PPR leaguers in WR3 binds.

Orton’s refusal to attack outside the numbers is killing Watkins. Woods has seen more targets than Watkins (22) the past three weeks, and Watkins has now gone three straight games without clearing 40 yards. He seems like a poor bet to bounce back in Haden’s coverage. Watkins is a boom-or-bust WR3 at this point. … Slot man Hogan is in a similar boat to Woods, only he’s coming off a slower game. As Orton’s checkdown tendencies have increased, Hogan’s opportunities have risen. The Bills’ receiver corps has become quite difficult to forecast on a weekly basis. … Chandler scored a 19-yard touchdown in last week’s romp over the Jets, but was held under 40 receiving yards for the ninth time in 11 games. There are better streamer options out there. Cleveland allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … With Fred Jackson back from his groin injury, the Bills indeed employed a three-back timeshare in last Monday night’s date with New York. F-Jax played 49% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, handling 13 touches and scoring from five yards out in the third quarter. Anthony Dixon played 30% of the downs, finishing with 13 touches and a 30-yard garbage-time TD. Bryce Brown had a 22% snap rate and six carries. Jackson is the only reliable flex play in the Bills’ backfield. The Browns’ defensive weakness is on the ground, where they permit a crisp 4.36 YPC average to running backs and rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA.

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Bills 17

1:00PM ET Games

Washington @ Indianapolis

Score Prediction: Colts 33, Redskins 23

Tennessee @ Houston

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Titans 20

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Bills 17

San Diego @ Baltimore

The Chargers’ response to offensive line woes and a playing-hurt Philip Rivers in Week 12 against the Rams was to shorten up everything Rivers did. He got rid of the football quickly and consistently, locking onto Keenan Allen and slot man Eddie Royal to move the sticks. The approach was effective enough to tough out a 27-24 win over St. Louis, but putting a bunch of fantasy points on the Ravens in Baltimore would be a far more difficult task. Rivers still has a 2:4 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games, and currently San Diego appears to lack the capability of truly exploiting Ravens perimeter corners Anthony Levine and Danny Gorrer. Facing a Baltimore defense that ranks eighth in sacks (29) and 23rd in touchdown passes allowed (17), Rivers is a fringe fantasy QB1. … Rivers’ target distribution the past three games: Allen 31; Malcom Floyd 16; Antonio Gates and Royal 10; Branden Oliver 9; Donald Brown and Ladarius Green 6; Ryan Mathews 3. … Allen was the focal point of San Diego’s sped-up passing attack, parlaying a team-high nine targets into 6-104-1 against St. Louis. Allen showed open-field explosiveness and YAC ability en route to his best fantasy performance of the season. He has 14 catches in two games since the Chargers’ Week 10 bye and should be a staple in fantasy lineups against Baltimore’s paper-thin secondary. … Predictably slowing down over the course of his age-34 season, Gates is scoreless in each of his last three games, registering consecutive stat lines of 3-28-0, 3-32-0, and 2-14-0. He’s a low-end, touchdown-dependent TE1 against a Ravens defense that ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Royal’s usage increased in last week’s win over the Rams, but it’s not necessarily a sign of things to come. He’s still a limited-snap third receiver who hasn’t topped 50 receiving yards in a game since September. Royal is a WR4/5 in fantasy. … If the Chargers are going to draw up shot plays to attack vulnerable outside CBs Gorrer and Levine, Floyd would be the wideout with which they’d do it. As usual, Floyd is a fringe WR3/4 whose fantasy viability is dependent upon either scoring a touchdown and/or hitting a big play on a low-percentage route. Floyd hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game all season. This matchup is good enough for Floyd to be taken seriously as a WR3 play in non-PPR leagues. … Ryan Mathews was sensational against St. Louis, dropping 113 total yards and a touchdown on what to-that-point had been a stout Rams run defense. The Ravens are also stout, ranking No. 5 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and holding opposing running backs to 3.49 YPC. No team in the NFL has permitted fewer fantasy points to running backs than Baltimore. Mathews probably isn’t going to win you your fantasy week, but he’s still in play as an RB2/flex based purely on how well he’s running. He’s piled up 175 yards and a score on 28 carries (6.25 YPC) since returning from an MCL sprain two weeks ago. … Staying involved as a change-of-pace and third-down back, Oliver finished the Rams game with 40 yards on ten touches. Against Baltimore, Oliver is an unattractive flex option in PPR leagues.

Bolts-Ravens has a 46-point over-under with Baltimore favored by six. Thus, the Ravens’ team total is 26 compared to the Chargers’ 20. This is an above-average setup for Baltimore skill-position players across the board. The hottest Raven is Justin Forsett, who’s surged to No. 7 in fantasy running back scoring after dusting the Saints for a 22-182-2 rushing line last Monday night. Forsett has earned RB1 treatment in a Week 13 date with San Diego’s No. 15 run defense. … San Diego is leakiest in the air, where Football Outsiders grades them with a bottom-five pass defense. OLB Dwight Freeney has predictably slowed down over the course of his age-34 season, and losing promising rookie CB Jason Verrett to season-ending shoulder surgery still stings. Combine limited pass rush with a suspect secondary and quarterbacks tend to eat. Joe Flacco is a solid two-QB-league start against the Chargers and is worth a look as a QB1 streamer for fantasy owners in late-season binds.

Flacco’s 2014 target distribution in games where Owen Daniels has served as Baltimore’s primary tight end: Steve Smith Sr. 49; Daniels 43; Torrey Smith 42; Forsett 23; Kyle Juszczyk 16; Marlon Brown 11; Kamar Aiken 8; Crockett Gillmore 6; Lorenzo Taliaferro 5. … Showing springy legs and his same old feistiness coming off a Week 11 bye, Smith Sr. dusted the Saints for 4-89-1 on six targets last Monday night. Smith Sr. moves around so much that his defensive back matchups can be difficult to peg, but he’s a solid WR3 option against San Diego. … 26th among wideouts in fantasy scoring and 12th in touchdown catches (6), Torrey is creeping back toward WR2 stock in non-PPR leagues. He has 90-plus yards or a touchdown in six of his last eight games. I like Torrey’s chances of getting behind burnable Chargers RCB Shareece Wright for a big play in this game. Whereas LCB Brandon Flowers is a top-four cover corner in PFF’s grades, Wright is 106th among 112 qualifiers. … Keyed by FS Eric Weddle‘s ubiquitous pass coverage, the Chargers allow the fourth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. I do think the Ravens should have enough passing success to keep Daniels viable, but realistically he’s a low-upside, fringe TE1 option in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Chargers 20

NY Giants @ Jacksonville

NFL Films’ Greg Cosell mentioned on the Week 12 Fantasy Guru podcast that the game tape showed the Giants’ offense was progressing on schedule despite Eli Manning‘s five-interception Week 11 game. It surprised me when I heard it. It seemed borne out last Sunday night, however, as Eli consistently moved New York’s offense against Dallas, posting his second highest yardage total (338) of the season and throwing three touchdown passes in a 31-28 defeat. Eli obviously owed a lot to Odell Beckham‘s circus catches, but the Giants’ quarterback was sharp beyond a red-zone interception late in the game. Jacksonville’s underrated pass rush is a concern — DC Gus Bradley‘s unit ranks third in the NFL with 33 sacks and harassed Andrew Luck without relent last week — but this is also a defense against whom opposing passers have a 19:5 TD-to-INT ratio and 99.1 QB rating, the league’s sixth worst clip. Manning should be fired up confidently in two-quarterback leagues and taken seriously as a QB1 streamer. … Eli’s target distribution since Rashad Jennings returned from his MCL sprain two games ago: Beckham 24; Rueben Randle 18; Jennings 17; Larry Donnell 10; Preston Parker 5; Daniel Fells and Andre Williams 4. … Beckham has solidified himself as a legitimate WR1 with a touchdown and/or 90-plus yards in six of his first seven NFL games. His target totals are 11, 10, 13, and 11 the past four weeks. Top receiver stats against the Jags over their last three games: 4-122-1 (T.Y. Hilton); 6-158-2 (Dez Bryant); 3-44-1 (A.J. Green).

Whereas Beckham will deal with burnable Jaguars LCB Dwayne Gratz for most of this game, No. 2 wideout Randle will take on steady RCB Demetrius McCray. Despite immense opportunity — he’s 13th among all NFL wideouts in targets — Randle has settled in as a low-ceiling fantasy WR3/4. … No. 8 in fantasy tight end scoring, Donnell is a low-end TE1 against a Jaguars defense permitting the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. Donnell’s targets have taken a hit with Beckham dominating. … Jennings’ snap rate dipped from 84% in Week 11 to 63% in last Sunday night’s loss to Dallas, and he had a three-yard TD vultured by Andre Williams late in the first half. Jennings was in the game on New York’s final red-zone possession, however, and is still very much in the mix for scoring-position work. On the season, Jacksonville ranks 21st in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs, including a league-high 73 receptions. This is a plus matchup for all-purpose back Jennings, who managed 52 scoreless yards on 19 carries against the Cowboys, but caught eight passes. Jennings is a borderline RB1 in PPR leagues. He’s more of a mid-range RB2 in non-PPR. … Williams finished Week 12 with 11 touches, but continued to scuffle as a ball carrier. The Giants do seem intent on incorporating two backs, but Williams is unlikely to pay off as a standalone flex option unless he scores at the goal line.

Executing a run-based game plan has been easier said than done for the one-win Jaguars, but it’s an approach they certainly ought to take against New York. Over their last six games, the Giants have coughed up 921 yards and six TDs on 167 carries (5.51 YPC) to running backs. New York’s run defense has collapsed since losing MLB Jon Beason to a year-ending toe injury. Assuming the Jags can keep this game competitive for long enough to lean on Denard Robinson, “Shoelace” should be set up for a bounce-back week after last Sunday’s clunker against the Colts. … The snap rates in Jacksonville’s backfield in the loss to Indy were as follows: Robinson 65%; Toby Gerhart 22%; Jordan Todman 13%. Gerhart (4-31) emerged as the Jaguars’ leading rusher, but was stuffed repeatedly in short-yardage situations and likely didn’t earn a bigger role. … Perhaps the biggest disappointment in this year’s rookie QB class, Blake Bortles has amassed 16 turnovers compared to eight touchdown passes through eight starts (nine appearances). Rather than assert himself as a QB1 streamer, Bortles has become a quarterback to attack with streamer defenses. At this stage of his career, Bortles is a panicked, out-of-control passer who’s seemingly lost confidence the more he’s played. I was all for the Jaguars playing Bortles over Chad Henne early in the season. Hopefully it doesn’t work against his long-term outlook. … Bortles’ target distribution in his first game off the Jags’ Week 11 bye: Shoelace and Marqise Lee 5; Allen Hurns and Gerhart 4; Cecil Shorts, Todman, and Marcedes Lewis 3. … I could try analyzing matchups against the Giants’ secondary in this space, but I’m not optimistic Bortles is capable of delivering the football consistently to any pass catchers. You’re entirely on your own trying to start Jacksonville wideouts and tight ends this week.

Score Prediction: Giants 24, Jaguars 17

Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay

The sample size keeps getting bigger, and Jeremy Hill keeps on looking better than Giovani Bernard. In Bernard’s Week 12 return from hip and shoulder injuries, the second-year scatback handled 63% of the snaps and 19 touches, but managed 67 scoreless yards and averaged 2.65 yards per carry. His YPC average stands at 3.90 on the season. Despite playing just 37% of the downs, Hill exploded for 96 yards and a touchdown on the same number of touches (19) and averaged 4.83 YPC, placing his season average at 4.91. Hill also has a top-five pass-blocking grade on the season per Pro Football Focus. Hill is outplaying Bernard in every facet of football, but is still only an RB2 because of the Bengals’ insistence on using Gio. Hill does offer RB1 upside against a mediocre Bucs run defense that’s yielded 305 yards and three TDs on 74 carries (4.11 YPC) to Falcons, Redskins, and Bears running backs the past three weeks. Hill is currently the No. 13 overall running back in non-PPR leagues, and No. 16 overall in PPR. … Bernard is getting enough usage to be viewed as a low-upside RB2/flex against the Bucs. Perhaps the most worrisome Week 12 development for Bernard owners was the Bengals’ consistent usage of Hill in scoring position. Bernard’s goal-line back duties appear to have been stripped. Working in Gio’s favor is the Bucs’ allowance of the second most receptions (67) in the league to running backs.

The Buccaneers have played solid enough pass defense recently that Andy Dalton probably shouldn’t be viewed as a great QB1 streamer. Over the past three weeks, Tampa has held Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, and Jay Cutler to 60-of-90 passing for 556 yards (6.18 YPA), only three combined touchdowns, and two interceptions with ten sacks absorbed. Utilized as a game manager all year, Dalton is ideally just a two-quarterback-league play at Tampa. … Dalton’s target distribution in the seven 2014 games A.J. Green has played significant snaps: Green 65; Mohamed Sanu 50; Jermaine Gresham 31; Gio 19; Hill 9. … After shredding the Texans for a career-high dozen catches in last week’s win, Green declared his previously balky toe 100% healed. Sure looks like it. Since the Thursday night disaster versus Cleveland, Green has logged consecutive receiving lines of 6-127-1 and 12-121. Dominating in the short to intermediate sections, nine of Green’s Week 12 catches went for first downs. From a wide receiver standpoint, there’s nothing to fear about the Tampa defense. … Sanu got back on track at Houston, catching a red-zone TD and moving the chains underneath. He’s a solid but low-ceiling WR3 option against the Buccaneers. Playing more slot receiver now with Green healthy, Sanu will deal with old Bears castoff Isaiah Frey between the numbers. It’s a fine matchup for Sanu. … The Bucs give up a lot of stats to tight ends, but Gresham isn’t worth your time. He’s gone over 50 yards once in 11 games. I’d be surprised if Gresham didn’t spend much of this game helping fill-in RT Marshall Newhouse block after the Bengals lost Andre Smith for the year.

Since regaining his starting job from Mike Glennon three weeks ago, Josh McCown has thrown for five touchdowns and averaged 310 passing yards per game. He’s been productive enough to be viewed as a QB1 streamer in favorable matchups. This isn’t a favorable matchup. Cincinnati’s TD-to-INT ratio allowed on the year is a stingy 11:11, and only the Browns and 49ers have a lower passer rating against (76.2). McCown’s respectable box-score production has kept Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans afloat, but when evaluated independently McCown is a low-end two-quarterback-league play this week. … McCown’s target distribution over his last three starts: Evans 29; Jackson 26; Austin Seferian-Jenkins 14; Louis Murphy 13; Bobby Rainey 12; Charles Sims 10. … Evans’ defensive back matchups are difficult to peg because he plays X, Z, and even slot receiver. He moves around a ton. Regardless of opponent, Evans has earned low-end WR1 treatment with eight touchdowns over his last seven games. … V-Jax is also moving around a lot. He made two long catches against Bears slot CB Demontre Hurst last week. Jackson’s stat lines in McCown’s last three starts are 8-75, 3-43, and 5-117. He’s a respectable WR3 play against the Bengals.

The Bucs dusted off slot man Murphy for a 6-113 number at Soldier Field. Is it a sign of things to come? Here’s guessing no. Murphy entered Week 12 coming off a goose egg, and with under 20 yards in four consecutive weeks. … Although Seferian-Jenkins has flashed promise in spurts this season, he has for the most part played poorly on the field. He left last week’s game with a back injury and didn’t return. Despite a favorable matchup with the Bengals, “ASJ” should be written off as a Week 13 TE1 streamer. Tight end desperados may want to know Brandon Myers is Seferian-Jenkins’ backup. Cincinnati allows the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends, including the sixth most receptions (59). … Getting healthier in the front seven, Cincinnati’s run defense has stiffened up since a worrisome start. The Bengals have limited Browns, Saints, and Texans running backs to 298 yards on 90 carries (3.31 YPC) over their last three games. The Buccaneers’ backfield should safely be avoided in Week 13 fantasy-lineup decisions. Here was last week’s snap distribution with Doug Martin reentering the mix: Martin 35%, Sims 33%, Rainey 32%. It’s a three-way timeshare to the fullest. And it’s probably time to give up the fantasy ghost on Sims.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Bucs 17

Oakland @ St. Louis

Shaun Hill has filled the role of game manager since retaking St. Louis’ quarterback reins two weeks ago, combining to complete 38-of-64 throws (59.4%) for 418 yards (6.53 YPA), two touchdowns, and two picks. They obviously aren’t flashy numbers, but he’s been an effective enough distributor to help orchestrate a Week 11 upset of Denver and Week 12 near-upset of San Diego on the road. As the Rams have committed to Tre Mason as their clear-feature back, all Mason needs is St. Louis to stay competitive on the scoreboard to pile up rushing attempts. The Rams are 6.5-point home favorites in this one, so game flow should work in Mason’s favor. With 17-plus touches in five of his last six games, Mason is an underrated and high-ceiling RB2 against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points in the league to running backs. I think this could be Mason’s blowup game. … Entrenched as a change-of-pace back behind Mason, Benny Cunningham has seen seven or fewer touches in each of the last six weeks. He swipes some third-down work from Mason, but carries no standalone fantasy value.

Hill’s target distribution since reentering the starting lineup two games ago: Jared Cook 14; Kenny Britt 13; Stedman Bailey 12; Cunningham 8; Tavon Austin 7; Lance Kendricks 5; Mason 4. … Despite his relatively lofty target totals, Cook’s stat lines through two Hill starts are 3-19-0 and 3-27-0. He’s a weak streamer option against a Raiders defense that ranks 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. … Britt’s stat lines with Hill at the controls are his 4-128-1 tease in Week 11, and last week’s 2-37-0 number against the Chargers. San Diego gave Britt one of the best matchups he’ll get all year. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 option versus Oakland. … Bumped to 67% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last week in San Diego, Bailey logged career highs in targets (9), catches (7), and yards (89), scoring a fourth-quarter touchdown from seven yards out. I’d need to see more consistent usage and involvement from Bailey to deem him a worthwhile re-draft play, but he’s definitely worth owning in Dynasty leagues. He’s a better long-term prospect than more-ballyhooed Tavon Austin.

Raiders-Rams has a 42.5-point over-under, among the lowest of Week 13. As Oakland is a 6.5-point dog, the Raiders’ team total is a putrid 18 points. Don’t get cute trying to start Oakland wide receivers and tight ends. Do start the Rams’ fantasy defense. … The lone Raiders skill-position player worth a serious look is Latavius Murray, who has averaged nearly 12 yards per carry on 14 rushing attempts this season, and broke out with a pair of touchdowns in last Thursday night’s upset of Kansas City. Murray is huge and fast, and easily Oakland’s top running back talent. The Rams played stout run defense in their previous three games, but sprung some leaks in last week’s loss to San Diego as Ryan Mathews, Branden Oliver, and Donald Brown combined for 129 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries (6.79 YPC). Murray is a boom-or-bust flex option in this game. … Darren McFadden has three touchdowns over his last 15 games. He’s handled 182 touches during that span and is averaging 3.16 yards per carry. Particularly with Murray on the come, McFadden is safe to ignore in fantasy leagues of all sizes.

Friday Update: On Friday, Latavius Murray failed his final concussion test and was ruled out for Week 13. Upgrade the Rams’ fantasy defense. The Raiders figure to turn to a three-way timeshare of Darren McFadden, Marcel Reece, and Maurice Jones-Drew at St. Louis. It’s a situation to avoid. If you’re desperate, I think Reece would be the best hail-mary flex option in the bunch.

Over the past month, St. Louis has sacked Colin Kaepernick eight times, slowed down Carson Palmer, essentially shut down Peyton Manning, and held Philip Rivers in check. The Rams have combined for 16 sacks during that four-game span. They’re also getting back LE Chris Long (ankle) from I.R./recall this week. This matchup sets up poorly for Derek Carr & Co. … Carr’s target distribution over his last five games: James Jones 39; Mychal Rivera 37; Andre Holmes 29; McFadden 23; Marcel Reece 19; Kenbrell Thompkins and Brice Butler 14; Vincent Brown 10; Murray 7; Denarius Moore and Maurice Jones -Drew 5. … Having topped 55 receiving yards once in his last six games, Holmes has settled in as a fantasy WR4. I’m skeptical Carr will have enough time to execute downfield passing plays Sunday against the Rams’ explosive pass rush. Holmes needs intermediate and vertical connections to pay fantasy dividends. … The highest-floor Oakland pass catcher has proven to be slot man Jones, who also has the best matchup among Raiders wideouts in Week 13. St. Louis’ slot defender is diminutive rookie Lamarcus Joyner, PFF’s No. 88 cover cornerback among 112 qualifiers. … As Rivera is a limited talent whose Weeks 8-10 production was heavily impacted by garbage time, those numbers never projected as sustainable. Rivera has a Week 13 matchup to avoid against a St. Louis defense allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Rams 21, Raiders 17

New Orleans @ Pittsburgh

Fresh off a bye, Le’Veon Bell is the premier running back start of Week 13 against a Saints defense that is playing on a short week, got gashed by Baltimore’s run game last Monday night, and lost NT Brodrick Bunkley to a year-ending quadriceps tear in the process. LeGarrette Blount stole seven touches per game from Blount over the first ten weeks of the season. In Blount’s first game off the roster, Le’Veon established season highs in carries (33), rushing yards (204), and all-purpose touches (35) in a Week 11 win over Tennessee. Expect another voluminous workload against a Saints defense that’s hemorrhaged 501 yards and four touchdowns on 87 carries (5.76 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last three games. … This game’s shootout possibilities keep Ben Roethlisberger squarely in mid-range to higher-end QB1 discussion. The 54-point over-under is second highest among Sunday and Monday’s games, and over the past two weeks New Orleans has been carved up by previously-struggling Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco for 34-of-46 passing (73.9%), 463 yards (10.1 YPA) and a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Fantasy football’s No. 4 overall quarterback behind only Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers, Roethlisberger should be started with excitement against the collapsing Saints.

Roethlisberger’s target distribution the past five weeks: Antonio Brown 62; Le’Veon 35; Martavis Bryant 29; Markus Wheaton 23; Heath Miller 19; Lance Moore 9. … The Saints don’t have anyone capable of slowing down Brown. LCB Keenan Lewis is the kind of corner who can shut down long, lanky wideouts, not 5-foot-10, 186-pound movement-Zs like Brown. Expect Antonio to eat. … Lewis would make more sense as an adversary of Bryant, who stands 6-foot-4, 211 and is coming off his slowest box score of the year (2-11-0) in a Week 11 win over the Titans. Bryant played only 46% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps in that game and still hasn’t cleared the 60% mark in a game this season. Albeit with plenty of upside, he’s a boom-or-bust WR3 against the Saints. … Also a limited-snap receiver in OC Todd Haley‘s offense, Wheaton is on pace for a 53-643-3 receiving line this season. He’s a fantasy WR4/5. … Despite their year-long defensive struggles, the Saints have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, and held Owen Daniels to seven yards on five targets last week. Expect Miller to spend most of this game on the line blocking for Le’Veon.

Back on the road to Pittsburgh, Drew Brees‘ Saints at least made strides in the passing game in their demoralizing Week 12 loss to Baltimore. Protection breakdowns and an utter inability to run the football caused New Orleans too many problems to overcome from a win-loss standpoint, but Brees set a season high with 420 passing yards and tied his season high in touchdown passes (3) against the Ravens. Losing trench battles on both sides of the ball is really what did in the Saints. Although Brees has long had more success at the Superdome than on the road in cold weather, he’s worth firing up as a mid-level QB1 at Heinz Field. The Steelers can’t rush the quarterback — they’re 25th in the league in sacks (20) — and their cornerback play is among the NFL’s worst, even with Ike Taylor back. Pittsburgh has a 19:8 TD-to-INT ratio against. … Brees’ target distribution last week, with Brandin Cooks out of the mix: Jimmy Graham 10; Kenny Stills 9; Pierre Thomas 8; Nick Toon 5; Marques Colston 4; Travaris Cadet, Mark Ingram, and Josh Hill 2; Joe Morgan 1. … The primary beneficiary of Cooks’ absence was Stills, who will continue to run his fair share of intermediate routes, but has inherited Cooks’ role underneath. Stills caught three passes behind the line of scrimmage against the Ravens and has added bubble screens to his repertoire. With 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last six games, Stills has graduated to every-week fantasy WR3 stock. He’s absolute robbery at his $5,100 FanDuel price. … The Steelers allow the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends, setting up Graham for another big week. Graham is on pace for 95 catches and just over 13 touchdowns. Only Rob Gronkowski is a superior Week 13 tight end start.

The good news for Colston is he logged an efficient 4-82-1 line against the Ravens and showed some playmaking ability on a 26-yard touchdown on a second-quarter seam route. The bad news is Colston’s passing-game role remains a question mark. He’s seen five or fewer targets in four of New Orleans’ last five games, and even with Cooks out was the intended recipient on only four of Brees’ 45 pass attempts. Matchups, good or bad, haven’t been predictive for Colston this year. He’s a fringe WR3/4. … Stills was the most notable fantasy beneficiary of Cooks’ loss in Week 12, but Toon (59% snap rate) and Morgan (26%) both benefited the most in terms of playing time. They’re worth putting on watch lists. … Pierre Thomas‘ return gave the Saints a lift in their horizontal passing game. Thomas handled 53% of the snaps in his first game back from a four-week rib/shoulder injury, totaling 56 yards on 11 touches. Although his ceiling is typically capped, Thomas is at least back on the flex radar in PPR leagues. … Ingram’s snap rates were 80%, 66%, 58%, and 75% in the four games Thomas missed. Game flow had something to do with it, but Ingram’s playing-time percentage plummeted to 35% with Thomas back against Baltimore. Is Ingram beginning to run out of gas? He’s failed to clear 3.5 yards per carry in three of his last four games, and is scoreless in his last three. He has 94 yards on 34 runs (2.76 YPC) the past two weeks. On a brighter note, Pittsburgh ranks 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and permits a crisp 4.33 YPC average to opposing running backs. Ingram may not be the RB1 he appeared to be around midseason, but he’s surely still worth an RB2 start in fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Steelers 28, Saints 24

Carolina @ Minnesota

Cam Newton has never played against a Mike Zimmer defense before. He did face old Zimmer assistant Paul Guenther‘s unit in Week 6 of this season, shredding the Bengals for 391 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. Zimmer’s 2014 Vikings have squared off once with a true dual-threat quarterback and played host to Robert Griffin III‘s year-best game in Week 9. Although Cam has been a shaky and ultimately disappointing QB1 option all season, he is now coming off a bye and never lost his upside. Over the past three weeks, RG3, Jay Cutler, and Aaron Rodgers have combined to complete 68-of-100 passes (68.0%) against Minnesota for 790 yards (7.90 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio. … Cam’s target distribution on the year: Kelvin Benjamin 97; Greg Olsen 76; Jerricho Cotchery 59; Jonathan Stewart 18; Brenton Bersin 15; Philly Brown 14; DeAngelo Williams 6. … Zimmer runs a game-plan defense that adjusts to its opponent. My guess is Zimmer will focus on trying to keep Newton confined to the pocket in this game, and give up one-on-one opportunities to Benjamin on the perimeter. As Benjamin runs most of his routes at right cornerbacks, expect him to deal early and often with RCB Xavier Rhodes, who’s come on very strong after an inconsistent start to the season. Behind only Darrelle Revis and Johnathan Joseph, Rhodes is a top-three corner at Pro Football Focus over the past two weeks. Rhodes played a leading role in holding Jordy Nelson to 68 yards on eight catches in Week 12. Benjamin is an every-week WR2 based on target volume and touchdown potential, but he’ll have his hands full in this one.

Cotchery has the better matchup with beleaguered Vikings LCB Josh Robinson. Unfortunately, Cotchery has come up empty in plus draws all year. Devoid of separation skills at this stage of his career, Cotchery would be a low-upside dart throw in Minnesota. … The Vikings are 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but Olsen has consistently produced in unfavorable matchups throughout the season. He’s the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end on the year. … The Panthers have continued to insist on a two-back timeshare despite Stewart’s superior production to Williams’. Add in the return of Mike Tolbert from I.R./recall, and you have a fantasy situation to avoid entirely, even against Minnesota’s soft run defense. Stewart would be your best option if for whatever reason you’re dying to start a Carolina back. Stewart has out-snapped Williams in three consecutive games and the Vikings permit 4.53 yards per carry to running backs.

The Vikings appear unwilling to give Jerick McKinnon the keys to their backfield. Even with Matt Asiata (concussion) inactive last week, Minnesota turned to Joe Banyard as an RBBC complement. Playing 30 snaps to McKinnon’s 39, Banyard piled up 45 yards on eight touches while McKinnon managed 63 scoreless yards on 18 touches. Waivers acquisition Ben Tate didn’t play a down. Although it was disappointing that McKinnon remained a timeshare back, the good news is his workload remained voluminous, and in Week 13 he takes on a Panthers team that ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. The bad news is there is some reason to believe Banyard may have earned more work, and Asiata is due back this week. McKinnon is a boom-or-bust flex option against Carolina. … Teddy Bridgewater finally showed some semblance of ball-moving ability in last week’s loss to Green Bay. He continues to appear extremely limited in terms of his overall passing skill set, unable to generate any an intermediate or vertical threat. Bridgewater has now gone six consecutive games averaging under 6.50 yards per pass attempt. Even against Carolina’s leaky pass defense, Teddy is a low-end two-quarterback-league play. His job won’t be made easier by Minnesota’s year-ending loss of RT Phil Loadholt (torn pectoral).

Friday Update: McKinnon (back) is listed as doubtful after not practicing all week. He told reporters Friday he won’t play against the Panthers. Not even the Vikings’ beat writers seem to know how carries will be distributed. Asiata is listed as probable, and the Vikings may want to see what they have in Tate. Banyard outplayed McKinnon last week and arguably deserves more touches. Asiata does seem like the safest bet for playing time. I think Banyard offers the highest ceiling in the group.

Teddy’s target distribution since the Vikings’ Week 10 bye: Charles Johnson 18; McKinnon 10; Greg Jennings 8; Rhett Ellison, Kyle Rudolph, Asiata, and Cordarrelle Patterson 5; Chase Ford and Banyard 3; Jarius Wright 2. … Churning consecutive stat lines of 6-87-0 and 3-52-1, Johnson has emerged as a late-season WR3 option and the Vikings’ new No. 1 receiver. He played 97% of Minnesota’s Week 12 snaps, pushing Patterson out of the starting lineup. Bridgewater’s passing limitations may affect Johnson’s ceiling, but he has a gorgeous Week 13 matchup against Carolina’s oft-burnt cornerback corps. … Demoted to the Vikings’ No. 3 receiver, Patterson has exceeded 40 yards from scrimmage once in his last eight games. He’s safe to drop in 16-team leagues. … Jennings is the Vikings’ other full-time wideout. He’s managed 42 receiving yards among eight targets the past two weeks and has offered scant upside all season. … After laying a goose egg as a part-time tight end in Week 11, Rudolph rebounded to play 88% of Minnesota’s Week 12 offensive snaps and catch 3-of-5 targets for 50 yards. The Panthers have allowed the 11th most receptions (53) in the league to tight ends, and the 12th most yards (621). A healthy Rudolph is back in the TE1 discussion.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Vikings 20

4:05PM ET Game

Arizona @ Atlanta

The Falcons’ passing attack will run into a buzzsaw Sunday as it takes on a Cardinals defense with which it matches up poorly. Arizona’s defensive personnel is perfectly designed to shut down Atlanta’s offense. The Cardinals can play man coverage with Patrick Peterson on Roddy White and Antonio Cromartie on Julio Jones, and blitz Matt Ryan relentlessly behind a porous Falcons offensive line. Opposing quarterbacks have an abysmal 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio against the Cardinals over the last seven games, and blitz-heavy Arizona has 17 sacks the past three weeks. DC Todd Bowles‘ defense sacked Russell Wilson seven times last Sunday. Ryan has been much better at home than on the road this year, but I’m not sure it will matter in this matchup. He isn’t worth trusting as a fantasy QB1. … Ryan’s target distribution since Atlanta’s Week 9 bye: Julio 35; Roddy 28; Devin Hester 13; Harry Douglas 10; Jacquizz Rodgers 9; Steven Jackson 8; Levine Toilolo 7; Devonta Freeman 2. … The Falcons are one of the NFL’s few remaining teams that still plays its wide receivers on specific sides. “X” receiver Jones will run almost all of his Week 13 pass routes at RCB Cromartie, who is PFF’s No. 3 cover corner behind only Denver’s Chris Harr is and Indy’s Vontae Davis. Julio is very much capable of beating Cromartie for catches and perhaps a touchdown, particularly if OC Dirk Koetter effectively draws up bubble screens and forces Cromartie to tackle. But Cromartie has the requisite size and speed to run with Jones on isolation routes. He’s still a WR1, but I don’t think this projects as a monster game for Julio.

Roddy has been absolutely terrific over his last five games, securing 37 of the 49 balls (75.5%) thrown in his direction with 90-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four of those five weeks. Per Pro Football Focus, however, red-hot LCB Peterson has allowed just 10 of his 25 targeted passes (40%) to be complete for 105 yards (4.20 YPA) over the last month. Roddy owners can try to hang their hats on Peterson allowing two TD passes during that span, and Peterson’s allowance of a league-high seven touchdowns over the course of the season. Especially after missing practice all week with an ankle injury, I still see Roddy as more of a WR3 this week than the WR2 he’s produced as recently. … Slot receiver Douglas has turned in stat lines of 0-0, 4-46, and 2-14-0 since Atlanta’s Week 9 bye. Battling foot and hamstring injuries all year, Douglas has cleared 50 yards in just 1-of-7 appearances. … Perhaps the best news for Julio and Roddy is that the Falcons will have to throw the ball a ton Sunday to generate offense. The Cardinals rank No. 3 against the run and No. 3 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA metric, and have held running backs to 3.44 yards per carry on the season. Steven Jackson, Devonta Freeman, and Jacquizz Rodgers are safe to avoid in this matchup. The hope for Roddy and Julio owners is that both will end up with double-digit targets.

Predictably, the more Drew Stanton has played, the more his play has slipped. Stanton hasn’t led a touchdown drive in seven quarters, a span during which Arizona has scored three points. The Falcons have played poor pass defense throughout the season, but expecting fireworks from the Cardinals’ passing game would be a severe stretch at this point. Stanton has a 53.5% completion rate, five touchdowns, and three interceptions through six appearances (five starts). He’s a low-end two-quarterback-play, even in a plus matchup beneath the Georgia Dome. … Stanton’s target distribution on the season: John Brown 31; Larry Fitzgerald 28; Michael Floyd 27; Andre Ellington 25; John Carlson 17; Jaron Brown 9; Ted Ginn and Rob Housler 4. … Fitzgerald (MCL sprain) is expected to miss at least one more game. From a size standpoint, it would make the most sense for Atlanta to match top cornerback Desmond Trufant (6’0/190) on Floyd (6’3/220) while John Brown (5’10/179) goes to work against LCB Robert McClain (5’9/195) and slot corner Josh Wilson (5’9/182). Coming off a goose egg in Seattle, Floyd is no better than a dart-throw WR3 play. 4.34 speedster Brown is more attractive on a fast track in what should be a favorable matchup. I like John Brown as an upside WR3 play and FanDuel start at Atlanta. The Falcons have surrendered wideout lines of 3-81-1 (Torrey Smith), 5-136 (Alshon Jeffery), 6-113 (Brandon Marshall), 7-151-1 (Golden Tate), 7-125-1 (Mike Evans), 9-109-1 (Kelvin Benjamin), 8-120 (Josh Gordon), and 5-93 (Andrew Hawkins) over their last six games.

Friday Update: Fitzgerald returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and will be a game-time decision against the Falcons. He now seems to be trending toward playing. Coming off a severe, Grade 2 MCL sprain, I’d want to see Fitzgerald play effectively in at least one game before starting him in a fantasy league. If Fitzgerald does play, it would be a blow to the fantasy outlooks of Michael Floyd and John Brown.

Getting the nod as Arizona’s No. 3 receiver last week, Jaron Brown went 3-24-0 on six targets and dropped an easy first-half touchdown pass. He will go back to fourth-receiver duties whenever Fitzgerald returns. … Ellington has cleared 4.0 YPC just once over his last nine games, and is averaging 1.89 yards per rushing attempt over his last three. The Cardinals’ recent attempt to claim Ben Tate off waivers and subsequent signing of street free agent Michael Bush are clear indications the team is concerned with the health of its rushing attack. It’ll be an enormous red flag if Ellington can’t produce against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to running backs. … “We need a guy who’s gonna pound it in there and close out games for us,” were coach Bruce Arians‘ words when asked to explain the Bush signing on Sirius XM Radio this week. The Cardinals are desperate for a “closer” and short-yardage replacement for 5-foot-9, 199-pound Ellington, who’s worn down badly as the season has progressed. Bush is worth a look in 14- and 16-team leagues, but isn’t going to get a full workload anytime soon, and plays in an offense that’s currently stuck in mud. Perhaps that changes this week against the Falcons’ barely-there defense, but I wouldn’t count on it considering Arizona’s recent performance. Bush is going to be a drain on Ellington’s touches. Just probably not this week.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Falcons 17

4:25PM ET Game

New England @ Green Bay

Sunday’s Patriots-Packers showdown has a week-high 58.5-point over-under that feels like a bit of a trap. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers lighting up Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, and it’s entirely possible New England attacks Green Bay with a power-rushing attack, slowing down the game. I’d bet the under. … Rodgers’ target distribution since Green Bay’s Week 9 bye: Jordy Nelson 28; Randall Cobb 24; Eddie Lacy 12; Andrew Quarless 10; Davante Adams 8; Richard Rodgers 6; James Starks 4. … Bill Belichick has assigned Browner to Calvin Johnson and Coby Fleener the past two weeks, leaving Revis on Golden Tate and Reggie Wayne. If the Patriots continue those trends, we’ll see Revis stick to Cobb for much of this game, and Browner get safety help over the top while dealing with Nelson. Jordy is the No. 3 receiver in all of fantasy, and Cobb has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-11 games. You’re not benching either, but neither Nelson nor Cobb stands out as having a favorable Week 13 matchup. … The Packers leaned on two-tight end sets as opposed to three-receiver formations in Weeks 10-11, curbing Adams’ involvement. He reemerged as a 71% player in last week’s win over Minnesota, seeing four targets. Still, the fact that Green Bay’s offense has been increasingly “multiple” and ultimately made light use of its second-round rookie bodes poorly for Adams’ fantasy reliability. He’s a WR3 shot in the dark in this game.

Despite increased playing time, rookie TE Richard Rodgers has seen target totals of 3, 2, and 1 the past three weeks. He isn’t a streamer option against the Patriots. … In-line TE Quarless’ target totals are 5, 2, and 3 over that same stretch. Although both Rodgers and Quarless are capable of randomly catching red-zone TDs, neither is involved enough in Green Bay’s passing game to be viewed as a viable TE1 streamer. … Red-hot Eddie Lacy has nine touchdowns over his last eight games and 100-plus total yards in four straight. He’s averaging 5.06 YPC since the month of September. Lacy is an every-week RB1, but there are reasons to both dislike and like his Week 13 matchup. Over their last three games, the Patriots have held Broncos, Colts, and Lions running backs to 104 yards and a single touchdown on 50 carries (2.08 YPC). It is worth noting, however, that the Patriots allow the fifth most receptions in the league (65) to opposing running backs. And Bill Belichick has a history of “playing coverage” against elite passers like Rodgers, essentially conceding the run for extended stretches in order to slow down an opposing passing game. My guess is Belichick won’t do that on Sunday, but I wouldn’t rule it out. Either way, Fat Eddie is a good bet for a voluminous workload and to hit pay dirt at Lambeau Field.

The Patriots enter Sunday’s game with point totals of 43, 37, 27, 51, 43, 42, and 34 over their last seven games. They shredded Detroit last week, arguably the NFL’s premier defense. How will Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels attack the Packers? Seeing as Green Bay’s weakness is run defense and strength is defending the pass, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if this is a LeGarrette Blount game. The Packers rank No. 22 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and permit a crisp 4.25 YPC average to opposing running backs. Blount is volatile because Jonas Gray could reappear at any moment — and the game may also not play out as predicted — but going in I think Blount is a good bet for 15-plus carries and a goal-line plunge. He’s an intriguing RB2/flex in non-PPR leagues. … If forced to choose between Rodgers and Tom Brady in this game, I’d go with Rodgers, who hasn’t thrown an interception at Lambeau Field since December 2 of 2012. But I don’t pretend to be smarter than the Vegas sharps, who foresee this game as a shootout. And although the Packers’ defensive strength is in the air, Brady would be in line for a big passing day if this game indeed turns high scoring and/or pass heavy. … Another conceivable scenario is New England attacking Green Bay in an up-tempo offense in an attempt to tire out the Packers’ thin defensive line, which lost B.J. Raji and promising rookie Khiry Thornton before the season, and only makes consistent use of four players up front. That approach would benefit Shane Vereen.

Brady’s target distribution over his last seven games: Julian Edelman 66; Rob Gronkowski 64; Brandon LaFell 55; Vereen 42; Tim Wright 21; Danny Amendola 12; James Develin 6; Brian Tyms 4. … The Packers have allowed the eighth most receptions (55) and sixth most yards (675) in the league to tight ends. This game sets up nicely for Gronk, who was vultured twice on red-zone scores by Wright last week and is “due” for some TD regression. Gronkowski has 135.2 non-PPR fantasy points on the season, 14.2 more than second-place TE Jimmy Graham. … Running most of his routes at left and slot cornerbacks this season, Edelman projects to square off early and often with Packers LCB Tramon Williams and slot CB Casey Hayward. Hayward poses a stiff test, but Williams has been Green Bay’s weakest secondary link this season. He coughed up touchdowns to Charles Johnson and Greg Jennings in Week 12. … LaFell will see more of RCB Sam Shields, who is the Packers’ top cover corner. I’m still not betting against LaFell as an every-week WR3. He’s shown a high floor with a touchdown and/or 60-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games, and six of his last eight. This game’s high-scoring projection works in LaFell’s favor. … Wright entered Week 12 with snap rates of 29%, 14%, and 14% over his previous three games. He proceeded to play a season-high 75% of the downs against the Lions as the Packers went all in on a spread attack, using Wright at tight end, slot receiver, and out wide. He finished with six targets, securing five and two for scores. I have no idea whether New England will play that same way at Lambeau, but Wright has earned more field time. He’s worth a serious look as a TE1 streamer.

Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Packers 24

Sunday Night Football

Denver @ Kansas City

The Broncos played tone-setting offense in their Week 12 win over the Dolphins, gashing Miami’s normally stout front on zone runs and staying committed to their ground game throughout. Since the Broncos lost Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball, C.J. Anderson has started two games. His snap rates in them are 93% and 90%, the two highest posted by any Denver back all season. With Anderson’s yards-per-carry average up to 5.58, the Broncos’ new workhorse should be locked into fantasy lineups as an every-week RB1. In Week 13, expect Anderson to feast on a Chiefs defense that allows 5.18 yards per carry to running backs and will sorely miss SS Eric Berry (lymphoma). If Anderson keeps running like he is now, Hillman (foot) and Ball (groin) will be lucky to have any role at all when they return. … Peyton Manning faced Chiefs DC Bob Sutton‘s defense twice last year, lighting up Kansas City for 726 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions in a pair of late-season Denver victories. The Chiefs’ pass rush was riddled by injuries then, and the matchup is tougher this time around. Still, Peyton has consistently shown a floor of about 275 yards and three TD passes throughout this season. I like Andrew Luck as the premier quarterback play of Week 13, but Manning is a staple in the top three.

Berry’s injury could cause a major shakeup in Kansas City’s secondary, with LCB Ron Parker likely moving back to safety and perhaps Marcus Cooper reentering the starting lineup at left cornerback. Peyton has picked on Cooper relentlessly in the past, most notably with Emmanuel Sanders (8-108) in Week 2 and Eric Decker (8-174-4) in Week 13 of last season. Last week was a Demaryius Thomas game. This week, I expect a Sanders and Anderson game. … Peyton is legitimately ignoring Wes Welker at this point. It was noticeable in Week 12 that Manning had Welker open for solid gains on at least two occasions but chose to go elsewhere with the ball. Now held under 40 receiving yards in five consecutive games, Welker is barely a WR4. He’s a bit player and there is zero urgency to involve him in the offense. … I didn’t know as of this writing whether Julius Thomas (ankle) would play Sunday night at Arrowhead. We may not know until close to game time. Julius is an obvious must-start if it begins to look like he’ll play, particularly with Berry on the shelf. … Jacob Tamme‘s stat lines in Thomas’ three missed games the past two seasons are 5-47-1, 1-3-0, and last week’s one catch for minus-one yard debacle. Even with Thomas inactive against Miami, Tamme played 30% of Denver’s offensive snaps. Peyton is going to throw to “his guys,” it appears. It appears Tamme and Welker are not “his guys.”

Friday Update: Julius was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday and is listed as questionable for Week 13. I still don’t expect to know whether or not he will play until Sunday morning at the earliest. Tamme has shown he is not a reliable fill-in TE1 for Julius’ fantasy owners.

Alex Smith has faced Jack Del Rio‘s Broncos defense three times since the Chiefs acquired him for draft picks two offseasons ago, combining to complete 73-of-129 throws (56.6%) for 778 yards (6.03 YPA) with a 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 140 yards on 14 scrambles. The numbers are as mediocre as Smith is a quarterback. This game’s shootout potential does give Smith QB1 streamer appeal, even coming off a rough Week 12 game against the Raiders. Back home after its loss in The Black Hole, this is a prime bounce-back spot for Kansas City. Smith’s unwillingness to pull the trigger on intermediate and vertical passes always caps his theoretical upside, but there could be a healthy dose of points scored in this game. The over-under is 50. … Smith’s target distribution since the Chiefs’ Week 6 bye: Dwayne Bowe 44; Travis Kelce 27; Jamaal Charles 25; De’Anthony Thomas 15; Anthony Fasano 11; Anthony Sherman and Junior Hemingway 8; Frankie Hammond 6; Knile Davis and Albert Wilson 4. … Bowe’s stat lines in the three aforementioned Chiefs-Broncos games are 4-57-1, 3-56-0, and 3-40-0. Bowe gets a tough Week 13 draw against LCB Aqib Talib. As Smith has yet to throw a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver this season, Bowe can only be viewed as a fringe fantasy WR3. … No. 2 wideout Donnie Avery will return after missing two months due to sports hernia surgery. Even at 100% health, Avery is never more than a fantasy WR5.

Kelce has led Kansas City in receiving in back-to-back games, but has scoreless stat lines of 3-37 and 4-67 to show for it. The good news is Kelce’s snap rates are up to 88% and 94% the past two weeks. The bad news is Smith’s passing limitations have had a limiting effect on Kelce’s box-score production. Kelce is still the No. 10 overall fantasy tight end on the season, and this game’s shootout potential raises his ceiling. Kelce is an upside TE1 against a Broncos defense allowing the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends. It’s no secret that I’m a Kelce supporter, but I love his chances of posting one of his season-best games versus Denver. If the Chiefs are going to have any modicum of passing success Sunday night, Kelce will have to be Smith’s go-to guy with Talib on Bowe. … Jamaal Charles has returned No. 1 fantasy pick value and then some since returning from his early-season high ankle sprain, scoring 11 all-purpose TDs over the eight-game stretch and averaging 5.24 yards per carry. A clash with Denver’s top-two run defense may remove Charles from FanDuel consideration, but he’s still a no-brainer RB1. Over his last four games against top-ten run defenses, Charles has piled up 415 yards and four TDs on 70 carries (5.93 YPC). He’s actually played better against stout defensive fronts than soft ones. … Strictly a handcuff in the Carlos Hyde zone, Knile Davis‘ touch totals over his last four games are 3, 5, 6, and 2. He isn’t a viable flex.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21

Monday Night Football

Miami @ NY Jets

Ryan Tannehill is a recommended QB1 streamer on Monday night against a Jets defense that has allowed a league-high 27 touchdown passes and 109.4 passer rating to enemy quarterbacks. Catching fire in his first year of rookie OC Bill Lazor‘s offense, Tannehill has a 70.6 completion rate and 16:6 TD-to-INT ratio over his last eight games. Raising both Tannehill’s floor and ceiling, he’s averaged over 32 rushing yards per game during that span. Tannehill also makes sense as a Week 13 FanDuel start. The Dolphins will likely have to move the ball through the air because running on Rex Ryan‘s defense is such a difficult task. … Tannehill’s target distribution since Miami’s Week 5 bye: Mike Wallace 49; Jarvis Landry 48; Charles Clay 36; Brian Hartline 23; Lamar Miller 16; Brandon Gibson 16; Dion Sims 13; Damien Williams 12; Daniel Thomas 7. … Shuffling bodies at cornerback all season, the Jets have allowed 12 touchdown passes to wide receivers through 11 games. Wallace leads Miami in red-zone targets on the season and is a quality WR2 play against New York. … Now playing more snaps than Hartline, Landry has emerged as Tannehill’s new favorite receiver. Tannehill struggles to hit wideouts deep, but can be lethal in the short to intermediate range, which is where rookie slot man Landry runs his routes. Landry actually has more targets (26) than Wallace (20) over Miami’s last three games. Landry is approaching WR2 value in PPR leagues. With four TDs over his last four games, Landry is a quality WR3 in non-PPR.

Hartline has one touchdown through 11 weeks and five TDs over his last 39 games. Losing snaps to Landry, Hartline is safe to avoid in Week 13 fantasy-lineup decisions. … Banged up and ineffective all season, Clay missed Week 12 with knee and hamstring injuries. His expected return on Monday night bodes well for Tannehill’s outlook, but fantasy owners should probably seek healthier TE1 streamers. … Lamar Miller is a low-end RB2 for the second straight week, taking on a Jets run defense that ranks No. 8 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and is holding enemy running backs to 3.48 yards per carry. The good news is Miller appeared fully healthy in last week’s loss to Denver, after previously battling shoulder and knee injuries. The bad news is this is a really difficult matchup, and Miller was vultured near the goal line last week as Daniel Thomas scored a three-yard touchdown. The snap rates in Miami’s backfield against the Broncos were Miller 65%, Thomas 24%, and Damien Williams 5%. Miller remains the clear-feature back, but he’s probably not going to go off on Monday night. One upgrade to Miller’s Week 13 matchup is the absence of Jets RE Muhammad Wilkerson, who is out with a toe injury.

Saturday Update: Clay was downgraded to a missed practice on Friday and listed as doubtful on Saturday’s final injury report. Look for usual in-line blocker Dion Sims to start in Clay’s place. As Clay’s replacement in Week 12, Sims managed 31 scoreless yards on five targets. I do think Sims is a sneaky TE1 streamer this week. He stands 6-foot-5, 262 with above-average athleticism and the Jets permit the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.

Ostensibly against their coaches’ wishes, the Jets have reinstalled Geno Smith at quarterback. Across nine games this season (eight starts), Geno has a 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio with two fumbles lost. Prior to facing Peyton Manning last week in Denver, the Dolphins held opposing quarterbacks to a 57.6 completion rate, 6.01 YPA, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions with 15 sacks over their previous five games. Even including the Peyton game, Miami hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season. Fire up the Fins’ fantasy defense. … Smith’s target distribution off the bench last week: Jeremy Kerley 3; Eric Decker, Chris Johnson, Jeff Cumberland, and Chris Ivory 2; Percy Harvin 1. … I’m not sure what to write at this point about the Jets’ dumpster-fire passing offense. Geno is reportedly only playing on GM John Idzik‘s accord, and the matchup is unfriendly against a Dolphins defense that can generate a ton of heat with its front four and gets above-average to strong secondary play. Again, avoid Jets pass catchers and start the Dolphins’ fantasy defense. … The Dolphins could not stop C.J. Anderson (27-167-1) in Denver last week, but had a long week to recuperate and are still a top-13 team in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Opposing running backs have a combined 4.09 YPC average against Miami. The Jets’ backfield seems to have devolved into a two-way timeshare after Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory each handled ten touches in last week’s loss to Buffalo. Johnson played 58% of the snaps to Ivory’s 40%, although those numbers were skewed by a large game-long deficit, and Johnson was the Jets’ passing-down back with Bilal Powell inactive due to an illness. Powell is back this week. Good luck if you’re starting Jets skill-position players in Week 13. You’ll need it.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 13

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