Every season around Weeks 3-5 there are a handful of players that test preseason expectations vigorously, providing just minor clues to the reasons behind a sudden shift in value.  Usually owners’ attention is focused on their busts, which is a vicious cycle because losing begets desperate decision-making. 

Owners have also moved on from the conservative confines of the small sample size.  They’re ready to stick their foot into the ground to act on assumptions before trends become common knowledge.  Trade activity picks up and fortunes can shift in a click, and Big Wednesday showcased a lot of those guys on a very good night for hoops.  8-of-11 games went down to the wire, and we’re going to hit them all and figure out who you’re going to the mat with. 

For real-time NBA news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $100,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $10,000. Starts at 8pm ET on Thursday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

NARRATIVE! 

 

The NBA schedule makers set the table for last night with a Finals rematch between LeBron and the Spurs, and the resulting Spurs win set up sports radio for at least 24 hours after LeBron fumbled away the final possession and all of the obvious narratives held their ground. 

The wily old Spurs got balanced output from everybody except for Tony Parker (eight points, three assists), and Boris Diaw picked him up with 19 points, six rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and one three in 39 minutes.  You know how things roll with Pop so all of the risk is officially on you, but Diaw is returning late-round value this season and is worth a standard league look during four-game weeks like this. 

Tim Duncan went for 19 and 10 with two steals and two blocks, and Kawhi Leonard posted a quiet 12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four steals in 37 minutes.  Leonard is playing at a top 30-40 level so far this year and has had a few rust games to artificially lower the numbers, and most notably he’s hitting just 43.5 percent of his field goals and 23.3 percent of his 3-point attempts.  With 50 percent and 37 percent career marks from the field and 3-point line, respectively, not only are those numbers going to go up but it doesn’t look like he has scratched the surface of his potential.  The buy low window is still somewhat open, so do what you can to buy him up with any second round asset in standard formats. 

 

YOU LOVE TO HATE IT

 

It would never happen but a lot of media time could be saved on the Cavs by simply saying ‘it’s going to take a while.’  David Blatt will get roasted a little bit for some of his rotational decisions, and the one involving Joe Harris playing most of the second half while Blatt burned through all of his timeouts was the biggie.  LeBron James fumbled away the last possession and that’ll give Skip Bayless a week worth of material, and Kevin Love is still the odd man out when it comes to the Big Three. 

Part of the Love issue is that Anderson Varejao is taking up a lot of his pick-and-pop looks because he’s a good screener and that’s basically his deal.  Varejao went off for 23 and 11 with two blocks and the Cavs will eventually shift that action to Love, but like everything else it will be an ebb-and-flow that happens under the white hot spotlight of early season losses.  I had him pretty high in the Bruski 150 at No. 13/10, which was low enough that I don’t own him anywhere and hopefully that’s the case for you, too. 

I’m not throwing the towel in on that evaluation but he’s getting hit from a lot of angles.  Obviously his shot attempts are down (-5.4 per game from last year) and the rebounds (-2.1 per game from last year) are harder to get playing next to James and Varajeo.  He’s letting his offensive struggles hurt him on defense, so needless to say he’s a mess. 

But even if we look at just the potential for Varejao to get hurt the chance of a big-time bounceback is almost a foregone conclusion.  He’s looking at a probable five-point increase in field goal percentage, and a probable jump of 2-3 field goal attempts per game when the team makes it a point to return his lost value to owners.  And this is before Blatt gets to put any of his offensive stamp on this squad. 

If I had to throw a dart today I’d peg Love’s end-of-year value, health notwithstanding, in the top 15-20 range.  Owners that overdrafted Love may not want to part with their first round pick at a loss, but based on the panic I see out there it’s worth taking a hard look at what Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward and Nikola Vucevic types would look like in a trade for Love.  Heck, you may be able to do better than that.  It’s ballsy stuff, but top 10-20 values don’t grow on trees and those three examples have all played at least a little bit over their heads to start the year. 

 

NEW GUY

 

After a season of getting mostly praise both in the coaching box and on the court, the Hornets are all of a sudden short on chemistry and lacking execution as they lost another one to Indy last night. 

The issues are impacting them up and down the lineup, with the most notable fantasy bummer belonging to Big Al Jefferson.  He had a solid night last night, scoring 28 points on 12-of-22 shooting with eight rebounds, one steal and one block, but is returning just top-80 value on the season. His shooting is down, most notably at the foul line (62.7%, 71.2 percent career), and at just 6.8 rebounds per game the Lance Stephenson effect is definitely hurting him. 

Stephenson returned to his old digs and had a typical line of 10 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and two blocks, but hit just 4-of-12 shots as the shooting woes continue.  9-cat owners desperately need him to make good on his current 37.4 percent mark from the field, as his other deficiencies combined with 2.7 giveaways per game have him at the bottom of the top-200 this season. 

Kemba Walker (12 points, 5-of-15 FGs, two threes, three boards, seven assists, two steals) is in the same boat and has seen the Stephenson effect hit his assists (4.8), too.  The hope for owners of all three players is that this is garden variety get-to-know-you stuff going on and they can smooth out the rough edges. 

 

KING OF THE HILL

 

Solomon Hill appears to be making a home at the small forward position for Frank Vogel and last night he turned a terrible fantasy night into a nice reality one by tipping in the game-winning shot late.  Hill finished with just six points and five rebounds in 38 minutes and he is only playing at a 14-16 team level despite logging 34 mpg on the year.  I don’t see the plan here for owners in standard leagues as guys start to return. 

Chris Copeland (six points, 27 minutes) has even less staying power and he’s a prime example of players in head-to-head leagues overvaluing contributions in one category only to ignore the very real damage that is occurring in others. 

Rodney Stuckey (foot) returned to action and got way more minutes than his recent injury history would have suggested, scoring 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting with not much else, per usual.  Throw C.J. Miles into this bunch whenever he gets on the court and this is a terrible group of fantasy players. 

I’m getting questions about Roy Hibbert (18 points, 11 rebounds, one block, 30 minutes) and his staying power and I’ll say this.  He’ll be hurt if George Hill returns and simply stays healthy, because right now Hibbert is options A, B and C for the Pacers.  He’ll also be hurt whenever David West (ankle) returns, but I think he’ll keep playing at his current level for at least 30-40 more games.  That means owners can expect his current top-40 value to drop into the middle rounds, but I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s disaster anytime soon.  Now after the All Star break when all that running up and down the court starts to get to the big man, that’s where I’d be worried. 

 

APPETIZERS

 

The Clippers flew across country to start a seven-game road trip over the course of 11 days, but they’re also still searching for their identity amidst a new ownership regime and lingering questions about Blake Griffin’s explosiveness.  Those questions weren’t answered as they dispatched an overmatched Magic squad, but at least they got to rest their starters throughout the fourth quarter to kick off their trip.

Chris Paul scored 16 points on 8-of-13 shooting with four rebounds, nine assists and two steals, and Griffin scored 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting but had just four boards and two assists to round out his line.  Griffin is among the more disappointing fantasy selections in this young season, and of course he’s a buy low guy, but the hope for owners has to be that he’s playing his way into game shape still.  If it’s not that then I’d be worried about a nagging injury or some other unforeseen dynamic that has come into play. 

He’s not the only Clipper to have struggled mightily to start the year.  Matt Barnes is going through a divorce but has shown some signs of life as of late, posting 13 points on 4-of-8 shooting with three triples, five boards, two steals and one block in 27 minutes.  If he can do it again he’ll deserve some consideration as a speculative add. 

J.J. Redick on the other hand, is ice-cold and hit just 1-of-6 shots for three points in 21 minutes last night.  He went off five games ago for 30 points and 11-of-13 shooting, so it’s not like he’s incapable of producing, but he’s not a must-own player until he proves he can be the consistent late-round value he needs to be as a low-upside guy. 

 

OH HO HO IT’S MAGIC

 

Tobias Harris must read the Breakdown because the minute I started really riding him for his efficiency he cleaned it up and tapped into all that upside.  He hit 8-of-14 shots last night for 25 points, including a 2-of-2 mark from deep and 7-of-7 mark from the line.  I own him virtually everywhere and because I also own Russell Westbrook everywhere Harris, Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward are saving my ass.  His shooting is going to come back to earth at least a little bit, and he also strikes me as a guy that could go real cold for a stretch, but beyond that none of the numbers propping up top 24-36 value seem ridiculously out of place. 

Evan Fournier suffered a heel contusion on Monday against the Pistons and missed last night’s game, but the AP gamer said he is expected to play on Friday.  Victor Oladipo (seven points, 3-of-13 FGs, four rebounds, four assists, one steal) got the Chris Paul treatment and there’s a wide open window to pluck him from frustrated owners.  Channing Frye kept up his top-75 pace with 10 points, seven boards, one steal, one block and three treys, and Nikola Vucevic went heads up against DeAndre Jordan and still managed 19 and 14 with a steal. 

Vooch is shooting over his head with 3 percent more makes from the field (53.8%) over last year on an increase of 3.1 attempts per game.  He looks great but that’s asking for a lot out of anybody and only the elite can pull it off. 

 

Every season around Weeks 3-5 there are a handful of players that test preseason expectations vigorously, providing just minor clues to the reasons behind a sudden shift in value.  Usually owners’ attention is focused on their busts, which is a vicious cycle because losing begets desperate decision-making. 

Owners have also moved on from the conservative confines of the small sample size.  They’re ready to stick their foot into the ground to act on assumptions before trends become common knowledge.  Trade activity picks up and fortunes can shift in a click, and Big Wednesday showcased a lot of those guys on a very good night for hoops.  8-of-11 games went down to the wire, and we’re going to hit them all and figure out who you’re going to the mat with. 

For real-time NBA news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $100,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $10,000. Starts at 8pm ET on Thursday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

NARRATIVE! 

 

The NBA schedule makers set the table for last night with a Finals rematch between LeBron and the Spurs, and the resulting Spurs win set up sports radio for at least 24 hours after LeBron fumbled away the final possession and all of the obvious narratives held their ground. 

The wily old Spurs got balanced output from everybody except for Tony Parker (eight points, three assists), and Boris Diaw picked him up with 19 points, six rebounds, seven assists, three steals, one block and one three in 39 minutes.  You know how things roll with Pop so all of the risk is officially on you, but Diaw is returning late-round value this season and is worth a standard league look during four-game weeks like this. 

Tim Duncan went for 19 and 10 with two steals and two blocks, and Kawhi Leonard posted a quiet 12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four steals in 37 minutes.  Leonard is playing at a top 30-40 level so far this year and has had a few rust games to artificially lower the numbers, and most notably he’s hitting just 43.5 percent of his field goals and 23.3 percent of his 3-point attempts.  With 50 percent and 37 percent career marks from the field and 3-point line, respectively, not only are those numbers going to go up but it doesn’t look like he has scratched the surface of his potential.  The buy low window is still somewhat open, so do what you can to buy him up with any second round asset in standard formats. 

 

YOU LOVE TO HATE IT

 

It would never happen but a lot of media time could be saved on the Cavs by simply saying ‘it’s going to take a while.’  David Blatt will get roasted a little bit for some of his rotational decisions, and the one involving Joe Harris playing most of the second half while Blatt burned through all of his timeouts was the biggie.  LeBron James fumbled away the last possession and that’ll give Skip Bayless a week worth of material, and Kevin Love is still the odd man out when it comes to the Big Three. 

Part of the Love issue is that Anderson Varejao is taking up a lot of his pick-and-pop looks because he’s a good screener and that’s basically his deal.  Varejao went off for 23 and 11 with two blocks and the Cavs will eventually shift that action to Love, but like everything else it will be an ebb-and-flow that happens under the white hot spotlight of early season losses.  I had him pretty high in the Bruski 150 at No. 13/10, which was low enough that I don’t own him anywhere and hopefully that’s the case for you, too. 

I’m not throwing the towel in on that evaluation but he’s getting hit from a lot of angles.  Obviously his shot attempts are down (-5.4 per game from last year) and the rebounds (-2.1 per game from last year) are harder to get playing next to James and Varajeo.  He’s letting his offensive struggles hurt him on defense, so needless to say he’s a mess. 

But even if we look at just the potential for Varejao to get hurt the chance of a big-time bounceback is almost a foregone conclusion.  He’s looking at a probable five-point increase in field goal percentage, and a probable jump of 2-3 field goal attempts per game when the team makes it a point to return his lost value to owners.  And this is before Blatt gets to put any of his offensive stamp on this squad. 

If I had to throw a dart today I’d peg Love’s end-of-year value, health notwithstanding, in the top 15-20 range.  Owners that overdrafted Love may not want to part with their first round pick at a loss, but based on the panic I see out there it’s worth taking a hard look at what Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward and Nikola Vucevic types would look like in a trade for Love.  Heck, you may be able to do better than that.  It’s ballsy stuff, but top 10-20 values don’t grow on trees and those three examples have all played at least a little bit over their heads to start the year. 

 

NEW GUY

 

After a season of getting mostly praise both in the coaching box and on the court, the Hornets are all of a sudden short on chemistry and lacking execution as they lost another one to Indy last night. 

The issues are impacting them up and down the lineup, with the most notable fantasy bummer belonging to Big Al Jefferson.  He had a solid night last night, scoring 28 points on 12-of-22 shooting with eight rebounds, one steal and one block, but is returning just top-80 value on the season. His shooting is down, most notably at the foul line (62.7%, 71.2 percent career), and at just 6.8 rebounds per game the Lance Stephenson effect is definitely hurting him. 

Stephenson returned to his old digs and had a typical line of 10 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and two blocks, but hit just 4-of-12 shots as the shooting woes continue.  9-cat owners desperately need him to make good on his current 37.4 percent mark from the field, as his other deficiencies combined with 2.7 giveaways per game have him at the bottom of the top-200 this season. 

Kemba Walker (12 points, 5-of-15 FGs, two threes, three boards, seven assists, two steals) is in the same boat and has seen the Stephenson effect hit his assists (4.8), too.  The hope for owners of all three players is that this is garden variety get-to-know-you stuff going on and they can smooth out the rough edges. 

 

KING OF THE HILL

 

Solomon Hill appears to be making a home at the small forward position for Frank Vogel and last night he turned a terrible fantasy night into a nice reality one by tipping in the game-winning shot late.  Hill finished with just six points and five rebounds in 38 minutes and he is only playing at a 14-16 team level despite logging 34 mpg on the year.  I don’t see the plan here for owners in standard leagues as guys start to return. 

Chris Copeland (six points, 27 minutes) has even less staying power and he’s a prime example of players in head-to-head leagues overvaluing contributions in one category only to ignore the very real damage that is occurring in others. 

Rodney Stuckey (foot) returned to action and got way more minutes than his recent injury history would have suggested, scoring 11 points on 5-of-13 shooting with not much else, per usual.  Throw C.J. Miles into this bunch whenever he gets on the court and this is a terrible group of fantasy players. 

I’m getting questions about Roy Hibbert (18 points, 11 rebounds, one block, 30 minutes) and his staying power and I’ll say this.  He’ll be hurt if George Hill returns and simply stays healthy, because right now Hibbert is options A, B and C for the Pacers.  He’ll also be hurt whenever David West (ankle) returns, but I think he’ll keep playing at his current level for at least 30-40 more games.  That means owners can expect his current top-40 value to drop into the middle rounds, but I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s disaster anytime soon.  Now after the All Star break when all that running up and down the court starts to get to the big man, that’s where I’d be worried. 

 

APPETIZERS

 

The Clippers flew across country to start a seven-game road trip over the course of 11 days, but they’re also still searching for their identity amidst a new ownership regime and lingering questions about Blake Griffin’s explosiveness.  Those questions weren’t answered as they dispatched an overmatched Magic squad, but at least they got to rest their starters throughout the fourth quarter to kick off their trip.

Chris Paul scored 16 points on 8-of-13 shooting with four rebounds, nine assists and two steals, and Griffin scored 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting but had just four boards and two assists to round out his line.  Griffin is among the more disappointing fantasy selections in this young season, and of course he’s a buy low guy, but the hope for owners has to be that he’s playing his way into game shape still.  If it’s not that then I’d be worried about a nagging injury or some other unforeseen dynamic that has come into play. 

He’s not the only Clipper to have struggled mightily to start the year.  Matt Barnes is going through a divorce but has shown some signs of life as of late, posting 13 points on 4-of-8 shooting with three triples, five boards, two steals and one block in 27 minutes.  If he can do it again he’ll deserve some consideration as a speculative add. 

J.J. Redick on the other hand, is ice-cold and hit just 1-of-6 shots for three points in 21 minutes last night.  He went off five games ago for 30 points and 11-of-13 shooting, so it’s not like he’s incapable of producing, but he’s not a must-own player until he proves he can be the consistent late-round value he needs to be as a low-upside guy. 

 

OH HO HO IT’S MAGIC

 

Tobias Harris must read the Breakdown because the minute I started really riding him for his efficiency he cleaned it up and tapped into all that upside.  He hit 8-of-14 shots last night for 25 points, including a 2-of-2 mark from deep and 7-of-7 mark from the line.  I own him virtually everywhere and because I also own Russell Westbrook everywhere Harris, Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward are saving my ass.  His shooting is going to come back to earth at least a little bit, and he also strikes me as a guy that could go real cold for a stretch, but beyond that none of the numbers propping up top 24-36 value seem ridiculously out of place. 

Evan Fournier suffered a heel contusion on Monday against the Pistons and missed last night’s game, but the AP gamer said he is expected to play on Friday.  Victor Oladipo (seven points, 3-of-13 FGs, four rebounds, four assists, one steal) got the Chris Paul treatment and there’s a wide open window to pluck him from frustrated owners.  Channing Frye kept up his top-75 pace with 10 points, seven boards, one steal, one block and three treys, and Nikola Vucevic went heads up against DeAndre Jordan and still managed 19 and 14 with a steal. 

Vooch is shooting over his head with 3 percent more makes from the field (53.8%) over last year on an increase of 3.1 attempts per game.  He looks great but that’s asking for a lot out of anybody and only the elite can pull it off. 

 

IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILLY

 

The Celtics let the Sixers hang around last night and eventually took care of business, with guys like Brandon Bass (23 points, six rebounds, one steal, one block) and Marcus Thornton (13 points, three treys, three assists, four steals, 20 minutes) getting some extra burn.  Of course, this is meaningless because Sixers. 

I thought at one moment that Jared Sullinger would grab three Sixers and pin them to the ground for noogies and wet willies, but instead he had them running out of the lane for their lives on a 22 and nine night.  He’s playing at a top 40-60 level and still shooting over his head at 50 percent on the year.  If he’s doing it in a week or two it may be time to reassess that. 

Kelly Olynyk owners that weren’t able to sell-high a week or so ago and probably bumming big time, and he has a slow night with nine points, three rebounds, four assists and a steal in 25 foul-plagued minutes.  All in all it seemed like a good spot to get the Sixers and a step forward after getting benched.  Yes, he should still be owned in all standard formats. 

NEW SIXERS SEASON TICKET PLAN

 

Every year I find myself watching inordinate amounts of bad basketball because those are the teams in which we’re mining for random values.  So it’s saying something when I say the Sixers made my eyes hurt last night, even as they kept the game close for at least one half.  They really ought to let fans in for free if they’re truly committed to the plan, because after all they’re banking everything on it. 

This week I took a flier on Robert Covington (14 minutes, six points, one three, one steal) and while he’s shown some versatility he still hasn’t moved the needle as the most recent Sixers lottery ticket.  It’s still early though, and as the No. 1 pick in the D-League he has more pedigree than most of his teammates so I’ll see out another week or so of this experiment in my deeper big money leagues. 

Tony Wroten won’t be denied as one of the team’s best players and he put up 21 points on 7-of-19 shooting, one lucky three, three rebounds, seven assists and a steal.  Michael Carter-Williams (11 points, six rebounds, five assists, one steal, one three, 4-of-13 FGs) is still knocking the rust off and the two should be able to co-exist relatively peacefully, though I do expect Wroten’s value to take a hit.  Nerlens Noel had a solid fantasy outing with 10 points, eight boards, three assists, two steals and one block in 34 minutes.  He looked like he was tugging his shorts a lot and that’s actually a good sign because he should be even more active when he gets his wind back.

K.J. McDaniels is in the doghouse minutes wise these days but he did his job to keep owners’ faith with eight points on 3-of-3 shooting, two triples, two boards and a block in just 11 minutes.  I can’t cut the guy with that sort of stuff going on, but as our blurb said you gotta do what you gotta do if you need a more reliable body.  He’s a top 150-175 value in just 22 mpg on the year.

 

JUST WRIGHT

 

Give it up to Marc Stein of ESPN for compiling this impressive bit of analysis on Dirk Nowitzki’s ankle history.  To sum it up, he has missed just 16 games in his career due to nine different ankle sprains.  So when you saw Dirk leave the game last night and return to finish with 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting, four rebounds, one steal and three triples in 28 minutes it shouldn’t be surprising.  Dirk also sprained his right ankle last week against the Grizzlies, and though he has looked a bit slowed since then, he says the issue isn’t serious and the data itself shows that there is good reason to brush off any real concern. 

Tyson Chandler (five points, 16 rebounds, one steal, three blocks) might be one of the happiest players in the league getting out of New York and into Dallas, but his owners are enjoying life even more with a top 20-30 return from the big man so far.  Throw the numbers out the window and sell this man while he’s healthy, but if you’re looking at just one number there is no way he continues smashing his career-best 73.2 percent mark from the line (09-10 & 10-11) at his current 79.3 percent rate. 

Chandler Parsons (11 points, 4-of-12 FGs, three boards, one assist) on the other hand, is creating all sorts of opportunity by bricking jumpers at an alarming rate.  He’s hitting just 40.1 percent from the field this year and his minutes are down from 37.6 per game last year to 31.7 this season.  He had a stretch from November 6-15 in which he didn’t eclipse the 30 mpg mark, which also happened to coincide with an illness.  The combination of lower minutes and poor shooting has created the impression that he’s struggling everywhere, but that’s not the case as all of his other numbers are either comparable on a per-minute basis or better.  He logged 37 minutes last night and that is the set wave trying to warn you that the big ones are coming. 

I wish I got more aggressive with Brandan Wright’s preseason ranking (129/72, 8/9 cat) because I chickened out based on last year’s injury-plagued letdown.  He turned in another beauty last night with 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting with six rebounds, one steal, one block and a 2-of-2 mark from the charity stripe just to put a bow on it. 

In standard leagues he is racking up top 60-90 value (9/8 cat) in a nice 12-game sample size.  I know he can’t hit 76.1 percent of his shots all year long but with the types of shots he takes there is less potential for major swings, and he’s doing all of this in just under 19 mpg.  Playing behind an older frontcourt and an injury-prone player in Chandler, he should have been owned on Day 1 and you should stop what you’re doing and grab him if he’s not. 

 

RALLY MCBEAL

 

As far as return games go, Bradley Beal did as well as anybody could have hoped for in his season debut last night.  He scored 21 points on 9-of-17 shooting with three treys, three boards and one steal as the Wizards didn’t have enough firepower behind him to fend off Dallas at home.  I don’t like to get too high on Beal because he needs a lot of scoring and 3-point shooting to offset his peripheral stat issues, but he’ll sit on a mid-round upside for the rest of the year. 

Otto Porter (six points, five boards, two threes, one steal, one block, 25 minutes) did a good job showing the blueprint for how he can hold 14-team value, but his low upside should make him dispensable for any late-round value on the wire. Garrett Temple (13 minutes) had a nice run for a little bit there but he’s waiver wire fodder once again. 

 

YOU’RE SO DEFENSIVE

 

We touched on this in a few spots recently and it’s worth mentioning again.  The Milwaukee Bucks are the fourth best defensive squad in the NBA based on defensive efficiency (97.7), and at 7-5 they’re not getting the attention that other upstarts are. 

But now that we’re creeping past small sample size disclaimers, they should be. 

We probably shouldn’t be too surprised about the defense, given the presence of Larry Sanders, Giannis Antetokounmpo and a slew of long, versatile players.  Their only truly solid indicator on the offensive end is an above-average offensive rebounding rate, and as a younger squad it’s certainly not a given that they can continue to defend at a high level.  But it’s possible what looked like a horribly redundant team will make the magical transformation to one with noted depth, which as usual is defined by the win column. 

Brandon Knight has led the charge and he had his fingerprints all over last night’s triple-overtime win, missing a gimme layup that would have won the game in the first overtime.  He would later hit a three to send the game to a third overtime and eventually his free throws would seal the win.  He finished with 18 points on an ugly 5-of-20 shooting, but also knocked in two triples with three boards, eight assists, two steals and a perfect 6-of-6 mark from the line. 

Aside from a relatively nominal jump in some counting stats, and other jumps that are indicative of his enhanced role as leader of this team, his other numbers are practically a facsimile of last year’s marks.  The only exception is his 87.5 percent foul shooting and at this rate I can’t see that falling below last year’s 80 percent mark.  I feel as confident giving the current top 20-50 player (8/9 cat) a top 40-75 floor as I would anybody in the league, barring injury of course. 

I covered Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker’s solid nights in today’s Dose, and to round out the Milwaukee field O.J. Mayo picked it up right as I essentially pulled the plug on his upside yesterday.  He scored 21 points on 7-of-17 shooting with seven rebounds, two assists, one steal and three treys in 39 minutes off the bench.  Yes, the minutes were aided by three overtimes, but upping his value into the late rounds with the surge he’s a solid speculative add.  The hope is that owners can ride the long-play in 12-team leagues and still live with low-end returns, while hoping that something in the rotation pops and he gets tapped for more responsibilities down the road. 

 

BRASS MONKEY

 

You can bet the Nets’ brass kicked a few things around the office after Jason Kidd came into Brooklyn, talked some trash on Brooklyn ownership before the game, and then pulled out a big win with his squad picked to go nowhere.  Expectations have been lowered in Brooklyn but they’re expected to compete for a playoff spot, and with five straight losses under their belt this team is searching for answers. 

Luckily for fantasy owners the puzzle isn’t too complicated, and for Brook Lopez’s owners they finally got a big line to ease some of the pain.  He scored 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting with seven rebounds, one steal, three blocks and seven turnovers just to keep folks on their toes.  The effort pushed him up to a top-60 return in his nine games this season. 

Joe Johnson logged an insane 52 minutes and aside from some questionable shot selection against Giannis Antetokounmpo, he continued to carry a lot of load with 18 points, five rebounds, eight assists and a three.  Johnson’s shooting numbers have leveled out to a normal zone and he’s otherwise enjoying a big jump in utilization, which is fun because Deron Williams is enjoying success at the same time. 

If you want to fade Johnson a little bit I can certainly get behind that given his age and mileage, but his role isn’t in question and another year of experience playing next to a healthier D-Will has probably created some hidden value.  Williams hit 7-of-14 shots for 18 points, five boards, seven assists, two steals and a three and I’m liking my preseason optimism so far. 

Bojan Bogdanovic saw a career-high 47 minutes, scoring 19 points with four triples and seven boards as he pushed up over the cut line in standard 12-team formats.  I can’t get behind him as anything but a 14-team guy, but he can certainly be a fall-back option in 12-team leagues when the Nets have a four-game week.  I used the same logic with Jarrett Jack this week and I might have found myself a longer-term asset.  He hit 5-of-9 shots for 14 points, nine rebounds, four assists and a steal in 35 minutes, and he pushed himself up to a solid late-round value on the year. 

 

THREE’S A CROWD

 

The Suns took their oft-frustrating fantasy squad into a most empty arena in Detroit last night and pulled out a late win behind Eric Bledsoe’s team-leading 18 points.  He hit a key bucket late and chipped in with six rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block as he has taken the lead in front of the team’s other two point guards.  That’s not to say the news is all good, as he and Goran Dragic (12 points, three boards, four assists) continue to hover at the bottom of the top-100 as they trade big games. 

Isaiah Thomas is in a pretty brutal cold streak, hitting just 29 percent of his shots over the last five games.  Thomas got hit on his surgically-repaired shooting wrist early in the year and he hasn’t really been the same since his grandfather passed, which also coincided with a quiet game against his old Kings squad.  As long as there’s nothing to the wrist (I haven’t heard anything), he’ll get back on track as one of the league’s most consistent shooters over the last three years. 

P.J. Tucker has been a mess off the court but last night he showed how he will force his way into minutes on the court, scoring 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting with two threes, seven boards and one assist while playing up to his reputation on defense.  He and Gerald Green (12 points, three boards, four assists, one steal, one block) are going to finish with late-round value but be inconsistent from night to night, so owners need to go into that endeavor with the long-play in mind.  Otherwise you’re just chasing.  

 

BANGIN ON DRUMMOND

 

We called Andre Drummond the fantasy bust of the year in the blurbs and it’s been covered in detail – the guy just can’t buy a bucket down low and Stan Van Gundy is forcing the action to him.  He hit just 2-of-10 shots for four points, 13 rebounds and no steals or blocks in 25 foul-plagued minutes.  He’s in the self-inflicted cycle of letting his offense get to his defense and owners are appropriately wondering if this is a long-term thing. 

So here are some things for owners to hang their suddenly in-fashion top hats on.  Drummond’s block numbers are actually better on a per-minute basis than last year, his free throw attempts are down by an attempt per game (a good thing), and his rebounding numbers are only down because his minutes are down.  With his steals cut in third over last year’s 1.2 per game, there is a nice mix of indicators showing that there isn’t a massive problem in his core areas and the steals stand a decent chance of regressing toward a solid return. 

While it’s harder with each passing day to unequivocally say his shooting is going to return to days of 60 percent lore, there is no possible way he continues to shoot 39.4 percent from the field.  He could trip, fall and increase that number to 45 percent.  Seeing a 10 percent drop to something below 50 percent would also be fairly unprecedented. 

Whether you’re approaching this from the buy low or sell high angle, what appears to be a massively fluid evaluation is actually working with some pretty solid controls.  If he can stop fouling, the increase in minutes will supplement an already strong fantasy core.  We’re really just talking about his shooting, and I don’t think SVG is going to let him suffer through a 40 percent season.  He’ll scale back the post attempts and go back to high percentage looks if the development plan includes too much collateral damage, and though he may not reach preseason projections he’s still one of the better buy low plays in the league.   

 

DOWN WITH THE SICKNESS

 

The Grizzlies went with the theory that it’s better for everybody to get sick all at once as Courtney Lee, Tony Allen, Beno Udrih, Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos all missed the game with the flu.  Predictably, the big guns stepped up and didn’t have enough for a win on the road in Toronto.  Zach Randolph went for 18 and 18 with two steals, Marc Gasol went for 22 and 12 with two steals and a block, and Mike Conley scored 19 points with 10 rebounds, five assists, one steal and a 3-pointer in the loss. 

 

CHUCK WAGON

 

The Raptors are among the more predictable rotations in the league, even if after Kyle Lowry (18 points, seven assists, two threes, two steals) and DeMar DeRozan (21 points, 10-of-22 FGs, five boards, four assists, two steals) you don’t know what you’re getting from everybody else. 

Jonas Valanciunas (10 points, five boards, two blocks) was benched for Chuck Hayes (10 minutes) down the stretch, and it’s fair to wonder if that proverbial step forward is coming before or after the All Star break, or possibly not at all.  He’s a buy low candidate only in the sense that things can’t get any worse and owners are probably stocked up on remorse. 

Amir Johnson has stayed on the floor and strung together eight points, nine rebounds, five assists and two blocks, but Patrick Patterson stumbled to just seven points, four rebounds, one block and one three in 21 minutes.  Patterson is still worth holding in 12-team leagues and like Johnson he gets a nice bump in 9-cat leagues, and both guys are worth starting consideration even if it can get ugly from night to night. Terrence Ross is enjoying life without James Johnson (ankle), who isn’t yet day-to-day, as he put up 16 points with three treys, a steal and a block in 34 minutes.  He should be in most lineups. 

 

DOIN THE SHUMP PART DEUX

 

Aside from having a deficient roster and an organization in change, the Knicks appear to believe they can coast on defense and that’s going to make for some ugly basketball.  They ran into a Wolves team tired of losing and the box score certainly showed it.  If there was a silver lining it was that Carmelo Anthony’s knee was not a topic of conversation last night and he put up 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting with four threes, four boards and a steal.  He only got to the line once (2-of-2 FTs) and that indicates a lack of aggression, but for now owners can take the threat level down a handful of notches. 

I had Iman Shumpert on the Dose cover yesterday and he rewarded me with a 1-of-11 shooting night, three points, four boards, one assist, one steal and a three.  Yes, Jose Calderon could be nearing a return, but he’s done enough good this season that I think he’s still a good bet for a late-round floor.  And as attrition inevitably hits this bad roster, if he can stay on the right end of that he’s well-positioned to tap into his upside. 

 

OLD DOGS

 

Anecdotally, I feel like Kevin Martin was getting dropped after some recent duds, and I truly hope that’s not the case as he’s a bloody top-25 value in fantasy leagues this year.  He went off for a season-high 37 points on 14-of-20 shooting with seven threes, four boards and two steals.  He hit just 2-of-6 free throws but is hitting 87.5 percent on the season on a whopping 5.3 attempts per game, which is his calling card when things are going well.  He’s not going to hit 48.3 percent of his field goals all season, and along with his injury risk this is an easy sell-high call.  Getting any well-situated early round value in return is a win. 

The other big story out of Minny last night was Mo Williams’ triumphant return to the starting lineup, as he posted 14 points, three boards, 13 assists and two threes in 31 minutes.  Zach LaVine was essentially an experiment brought about by Williams’ tenuous health, and though he did well given his lack of experience he can’t do what a healthy Williams can do for the team.  There is a big window here with Ricky Rubio out at least another month and then some, so Williams is a must-own player, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaVine get another crack at big minutes when Williams gets dinged up.  Still, there’s not enough meat to the bone for LaVine to be held in 12-14 team leagues. 

Also very noteworthy was the news on Nikola Pekovic, whose ankles are acting up and along with wrist and personal issues he’s out for the next few games at a minimum.  I sure hope you guys didn’t drop Gorgui Dieng, who had an up-and-down game and still finished with eight points, seven boards, four assists, five steals and a block. 

Shabazz Muhammad finally got a real chance to show off the gains he made this summer, starting for Thaddeus Young (personal) and putting up 17 points, eight boards and a block in 32 minutes.  He needs some injury help and a trade of Corey Brewer (14 points, six steals, 29 minutes) would be a boon, but for now he’s only on the deep league radar outside of daily leagues.  Andrew Wiggins continued to spurn owners with 12 points, four boards, one steal and one three in 29 minutes, and as we’ve covered all year I just don’t think a long-term hold is going to be worth the squeeze. 

 

GETTING CROWDED

 

The Thunder has finally settled into a pattern and unfortunately for them that has resulted in four straight losses.  We know that Reggie Jackson is going to dominate the ball, Serge Ibaka is going to be spread too thin, and their wings are going to be inconsistent until the cavalry returns. 

That wing position got a bit more crowded with the return of Scott Brooks favorite Andre Roberson, who logged seven minutes and put up three points and a trey.  He appeared to be as interesting as any of the potential beneficiaries when Thunder players started dropping like flies, probably because he wasn’t going for the insane FAAB amounts that Perry Jones was drawing.  But that doesn’t matter now, as Jones will eventually return and the outlooks for Jeremy Lamb (eight points, 2-of-5 FGs, two threes, 21 minutes) and Anthony Morrow (10 points, no threes, 28 minutes) obviously get dimmer.  As I said in the Dose, Morrow will probably scorn everybody that drops him with a big one the next time out, but both he and Lamb can be dropped for any solid late-round values. 

As for Jackson (16 points, 5-of-20 FGs, seven boards, nine assists, two steals, 6-of-6 FTs), he continues to be the target of ire in OKC.  Brooks didn’t use his name but essentially called out his defense, and Jackson’s indefensible chucker-three late in the fourth had writers openly questioning his motives yet again.  Ibaka got his game going in the right direction with 22 points, 9-of-15 FGs, two threes and 13 boards, but he did not record a steal or block and the return of the All-Pros can’t come soon enough. 

 

BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL

 

Denver has stopped the bleeding with a couple of wins and their rotation appears to have settled in, as it never ceases to amaze when consistency trumps tinkering.  Still, though, after ESPN’s management-side report saying Kenneth Faried had frenemies in the organization, it’s all still very awkward with Faried putting up tepid numbers.  He hit just 3-of-7 shots for eight points, 10 boards and a steal in 30 minutes, and saw Darrell Arthur (18 minutes, nine points, four boards, two steals, one block, one three) get crunch time minutes over him in last night’s win over the Thunder. 

I was as high on Faried as anybody, looking at his Team USA and preseason work as indicators of a big jump.  To add to the incorrect usage of the word irony, Faried was presented with a portrait of himself at halftime to commemorate his gold medal this summer.  With the Nuggets winning and others getting on track, it seems all of the arrows are pointing at Faried, making this a blue light buy-low special.  In the good news section, Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post debunked any locker room issues for Faried.  For the record, I’m still hopeful that Faried can return early round value this season. 

Timofey Mozgov (17 points, seven boards, three blocks, 36 minutes) and Wilson Chandler (21 points, three treys, nine boards, one block, 27 minutes) are surging.  If Mozgov can eclipse the 30-minute barrier I like him to have a mid-round upside, while Chandler needs to stay on top of the usage equation and hold struggling Danilo Gallinari down.  He gets a late-round evaluation if he can do that and stay healthy.  Ty Lawson continues to turn the corner and put up a 15 and 15 night in the win. 

 

SWAGGY DOES IT

 

We’ve touched on it a lot here and as funny as it sounds Nick Young was yet again the calming influence in the Lakers’ offense, taking the burden off of Kobe Bryant on a 16-point night.  He hit just 6-of-15 shots but chipped in with two threes, four boards and two steals in 28 minutes off the bench in the Lakers’ second-straight win.  If you started Young in the Lakers’ four-game week that’s already a win after two productive games and my sense is that you’re sitting on a solid late-round value for the rest of the year.  Like I said yesterday, too, if anything happens to Kobe in his advanced age you’re sitting on a gold mine. 

Kobe wasn’t nearly as efficient as he was last night with 10-of-28 makes from the field, but owners can live with this when he’s pumping out 29 points, five rebounds, seven assists, a steal, a block and an 8-of-10 mark from the line.  Carlos Boozer had a second straight protein-style double-double, scoring 12 points with 13 rebounds and no other bread to truly call it a burger. 

Jeremy Lin (three points, 1-of-5 FGs, one three, four rebounds, one steal, one block) got the Patrick Beverley treatment, which is worse since Beverley knows all of his moves from their time as teammates, as Lin continues to be one of the more mercurial players in fantasy leagues.  Ed Davis logged just 19 minutes but racked up six points, 11 rebounds and a block.  Just stay the course as he’s providing late-round value while playing at a likely floor.

I saw an interesting article in the L.A. Times reminding us that Jordan Hill admittedly cut back on the booze this year, intimating that it’s one of the reasons behind his minutes spike.  Good for him and he had another big points (16) and boards (10) line, with a steal and block to boost a solid night from the field.  If he can put it all together and the drinking really was holding him back, perhaps he can work his way into a consistent mid-round asset. 

 

THE DWIGHT STUFF

 

Dwight Howard’s absence due to a knee injury while a previous child abuse story has hit the radar once again and Kobe Bryant came to town drew some raised eyebrows around the league.  None of the reliable folks have tied the former issue to last night’s absence but it all felt a bit strange, particularly when he didn’t sit on the bench during the game.  As I said in the Dose, I’m not going to speculate on any of that and until we hear of a reason to think his injury is anything but day-to-day that’s where I have him. 

Terrence Jones (leg) is “slowly healing” according to Kevin McHale, and the likelihood that this frontcourt is back sooner rather than later takes a lot of steam out of Kostas Papanikolaou’s night.  He scored a season-high 19 points on 6-of-10 shooting with four treys, six boards, two assists and a steal in 34 minutes off the bench, and flashes good versatility in the threes, steals and blocks category.  Most of his shots are of the deep variety and he’s hitting just 33.8 percent from the field this season, but if a path to long-term minutes ever opens up owners should know the framework for fantasy value is there. 

Patrick Beverley (15 points, three triples, four rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks) has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury.  He could easily be floating on your wire and that’s not right for a top 85-100 player when on the floor this year.