Three And Out: Getting Defensive: Week 12
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
You’re still here?
Well, that’s good, because it means you’re likely still in the hunt for your league’s championship. People don’t read this column for fun, do they?
With the fantasy playoffs just two weeks away in most leagues, let’s dive right into what Week 12 has in store for us on the defensive side of the football.
Remember, the following is breakdown of my thoughts on all of the team defenses for the week, but is not my rankings. Instead, it’s best to consider the following as a set of tiers each week, and use them to help you make decisions at team defense.
As always, feel free to shoot me a tweet if you have any specific questions about start/sit dilemmas that I don’t answer here. If that’s not your thing, you can also “like” me on Facebook.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2.5 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 12’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $300,000. Starts Sunday, November 23rd at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
The Usual Suspects
While the Jets have been slightly more competent offensively with Michael Vick under center, you’re licking your chops at this matchup for Buffalo (vs. NY Jets). Seven feet of snow won’t stop this Bills defense from racking up fantasy points in Week 12.
Preferred Plays
Fantasy defenses with a weekly matchup upgrade that are likely owned in your league. There’s no reason to drop these units for a streamer.
1. San Francisco (vs. Washington) – I really want to believe in Robert Griffin, but sadly the former first-rounder keeps giving us reasons to doubt him. The good news is we can continue to take advantage of Washington for fantasy purposes. With rookie Chris Borland playing extremely well, and Aldon Smith back in the mx, the 49ers are locked and loaded this week.
2. Kansas City (at Oakland) – Only the Lions currently yield fewer points per game that the Chiefs, and they face a Raiders offense that currently scores the least fantasy points per game. Easy math.
3. Philadelphia (vs. Tennessee) – We faded the Eagles last week, and for good reason. Fortunately, they go from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Mettenberger. The rookie hasn’t been terrible, but he does make mistakes. The Eagles have shown us time and time again this season that they can capitalize on turnovers.
4. Seattle (vs. Arizona) – The Seahawks are no longer a matchup-proof start, but you’re going to want to roll with them this week. Drew Stanton’s gunslinger mentality means plenty of opportunities for turnovers.
5. New England (vs. Detroit) – The Pats lost arguably their two best defensive players this season in Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones, but they just keep on trucking. They make for a strong play this week at home against a Lions offense that has really struggled recently to put points on the board.
Still Solid
They aren’t elite plays, but you’re not likely to find anything better on the wire.
The Seahawks aren’t exactly the best fantasy matchup, but there’s no reason to go away from Arizona (at Seattle). The blitz-heavy Cards have 10 sacks over their last two games. They’ve also held their previous six opponents to 20-or-fewer points. … Denver (vs. Miami) didn’t quite rack up the fantasy points last week, but they’re still a solid play at home this week against a Dolphins team that gave up five sacks and two turnovers to the Bills last week.
Plug-and-Play
You don’t want to rely on these D/STs on a weekly basis, but their matchup is too juicy to pass up.
1. Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville) – The bye week won’t fix much for this Jags offense. You’re still targeting them every week, so the Colts are a top 5 play this week.
2. Green Bay (at Minnesota) – Ride the wave with the Packers following their Week 11 outburst against Philly. Green Bay faces a Vikings team that seems to have steadied over their last three games, though the Packers racked up six sacks and three takeaways when these teams last faced back in Week 5.
3. San Diego (vs. St. Louis) – Don’t let last week fool you, this Rams offense played well beyond their means against the Broncos. They’re still what we thought they were, and their true colors will show this weekend in San Diego.
4. Chicago (vs. Tampa Bay) – Besides Mike Evans, the Bucs managed 120 yards of total offense and last week. The Bears aren’t a great defense, but they might be better than you think, as Chicago currently sits in the peloton as the No. 19 unit in total defense. They’re a sneaky streamer this week against the bumbling Bucs’ offense.
Middle of the Road
These are fantasy option who will be streamers at times, but it’s best to avoid in this matchup.
Minnesota (vs. Green Bay) took advantage of a strong schedule in the middle of the season, but you want no piece of them against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers this week. … St. Louis (at San Diego) trending in the right direction, but it’s tough to trust them on the road against a Chargers offense that limits opportunities for big defensive plays. … J.J. Watt is fantastic, but even he can’t carry a Houston (vs. Cincinnati) unit that currently ranks No. 30 in total defense. … Surprisingly, the Texans have yet to yield double-digit fantasy points this season. That’s a good reason to fade Cincinnati (at Houston) this week. … Baltimore (at New Orleans) returns from bye and gets a tough matchup against a Saints team that hasn’t yielded double-digit fantasy points to an opposing defenisve since Week 2. … Cleveland (at Atlanta) came back to earth last week against the Texans and now have to go one the road to face a Falcons offense that tends to play much better at home. … Tennessee (at Philadelphia) has only produced one takeaway in their last three games. They’re not an ideal play on the road against an explosive Eagles offense. … While some may look to stream Dallas (at NY Giants) this week, I’m fading the Cowboys. Their lack of a consistent pass rush should give Eli Manning plenty of time to throw the ball. … Tampa Bay (at Chicago) took advantage of an inept Washington offense last week, but they face a much tougher foe in the resurgent Bears.
Matchup Downgrade
They shouldn’t be dropped, but a tough matchup limits the fantasy upside of these units.
1. Miami (at Denver) – You have like Miami next week against the Jets, but not here. Don’t get cute and think that you can get away with starting the Dolphins because Denver is banged up. It’s still the Broncos.
2. Detroit (at New England) – The Lions are arguably the league’s best defense this season, but they’re going to have their hands full on the road in Foxboro. With Vegas favoring New England by seven points, the smart money is on fading Detroit this week.
Bottom of the Barrel
Oakland (vs. Kansas City) remains fantasy’s No. 32 unit. … Despite a decent matchup, it’s tough to trust a NY Jets (at Buffalo) defense that has only produced seven takeaways on the season. … The NY Giants (vs. Dallas) have scored a combined two fantasy points over their last six games. … New Orleans (vs. Baltimore) lacks the punch they showed last season and currently sits 30th in fantasy scoring. … Not only does Jacksonville (at Indianapolis) struggle to score fantasy points, but they also face Andrew Luck and the Colts this week. … Atlanta (vs. Cleveland) is coming off two strong performances against NFC South foes, but they’ve really had a hard time against non-divisional competition this season. … The stars aligned for Washington (at San Francisco) last week and they managed a measly four fantasy points.
Streaming Ahead
Here are some potential streamers with good matchups in the coming weeks.
Week 13 – NY Giants at Jacksonville, Oakland at St. Louis, Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, St. Louis vs. Oakland, Minnesota vs. Carolina, Indianapolis vs. Washington
Week 14 – Houston at Jacksonville, Washington vs. St. Louis, New Orleans vs. Carolina, Minnesota vs. NY Jets, St. Louis at Washington
Week 15 – Baltimore vs. Jacksonville, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay at Carolina, Tennessee vs. NY Jets, NY Giants vs. Washington
Can I Kick it?
Here are my top 12 kickers for Week 12:
1. Adam Vinatieri (vs. JAC)
2. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. DET)
3. Dan Bailey (at NYG)
4. Cody Parkey (vs. TEN)
5. Phil Dawson (vs. WAS)
6. Justin Tucker (at NO)
7. Mason Crosby (at MIN)
8. Matt Bryant (vs. CLE)
9. Nick Novak (vs. STL)
10. Steven Hauschka (vs. ARI)
11. Dan Carpenter (vs. NYJ)
12. Cairo Santos (at OAK)
D/ST Standard Scoring System |
|||||||
Any Touchdown |
6 pts |
0 points allowed |
5 pts |
Under 100 yards allowed |
5 pts |
||
Interception |
2 pts |
1-6 points allowed |
4 pts |
101 to 199 yards allowed |
3 pts |
||
Fumble Recovery |
2 pts |
7-13 points allowed |
3 pts |
200 to 299 yards allowed |
2 pts |
||
Blocked Kick |
2 pts |
14-17 points allowed |
1 pt |
300 to 349 yards allowed |
0 pts |
||
Safety |
2 pts |
18-27 points allowed |
0 pts |
350 to 399 yards allowed |
-1 pts |
||
Sack |
1 pt |
28-34 points allowed |
-1 pts |
400 to 449 yards allowed |
-3 pts |
||
35-45 points allowed |
-3 pts |
450 to 499 yards allowed |
-5 pts |
||||
46+ points allowed |
-5 pts |
500- 549 yards allowed |
-6 pts |
||||
550+ yards allowed |
-7 pts |
You’re still here?
Well, that’s good, because it means you’re likely still in the hunt for your league’s championship. People don’t read this column for fun, do they?
With the fantasy playoffs just two weeks away in most leagues, let’s dive right into what Week 12 has in store for us on the defensive side of the football.
Remember, the following is breakdown of my thoughts on all of the team defenses for the week, but is not my rankings. Instead, it’s best to consider the following as a set of tiers each week, and use them to help you make decisions at team defense.
As always, feel free to shoot me a tweet if you have any specific questions about start/sit dilemmas that I don’t answer here. If that’s not your thing, you can also “like” me on Facebook.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2.5 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 12’s games. It’s only $25 to join and first prize is $300,000. Starts Sunday, November 23rd at 1pm ET. Here’s the link.
The Usual Suspects
While the Jets have been slightly more competent offensively with Michael Vick under center, you’re licking your chops at this matchup for Buffalo (vs. NY Jets). Seven feet of snow won’t stop this Bills defense from racking up fantasy points in Week 12.
Preferred Plays
Fantasy defenses with a weekly matchup upgrade that are likely owned in your league. There’s no reason to drop these units for a streamer.
1. San Francisco (vs. Washington) – I really want to believe in Robert Griffin, but sadly the former first-rounder keeps giving us reasons to doubt him. The good news is we can continue to take advantage of Washington for fantasy purposes. With rookie Chris Borland playing extremely well, and Aldon Smith back in the mx, the 49ers are locked and loaded this week.
2. Kansas City (at Oakland) – Only the Lions currently yield fewer points per game that the Chiefs, and they face a Raiders offense that currently scores the least fantasy points per game. Easy math.
3. Philadelphia (vs. Tennessee) – We faded the Eagles last week, and for good reason. Fortunately, they go from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Mettenberger. The rookie hasn’t been terrible, but he does make mistakes. The Eagles have shown us time and time again this season that they can capitalize on turnovers.
4. Seattle (vs. Arizona) – The Seahawks are no longer a matchup-proof start, but you’re going to want to roll with them this week. Drew Stanton’s gunslinger mentality means plenty of opportunities for turnovers.
5. New England (vs. Detroit) – The Pats lost arguably their two best defensive players this season in Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones, but they just keep on trucking. They make for a strong play this week at home against a Lions offense that has really struggled recently to put points on the board.
Still Solid
They aren’t elite plays, but you’re not likely to find anything better on the wire.
The Seahawks aren’t exactly the best fantasy matchup, but there’s no reason to go away from Arizona (at Seattle). The blitz-heavy Cards have 10 sacks over their last two games. They’ve also held their previous six opponents to 20-or-fewer points. … Denver (vs. Miami) didn’t quite rack up the fantasy points last week, but they’re still a solid play at home this week against a Dolphins team that gave up five sacks and two turnovers to the Bills last week.
Plug-and-Play
You don’t want to rely on these D/STs on a weekly basis, but their matchup is too juicy to pass up.
1. Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville) – The bye week won’t fix much for this Jags offense. You’re still targeting them every week, so the Colts are a top 5 play this week.
2. Green Bay (at Minnesota) – Ride the wave with the Packers following their Week 11 outburst against Philly. Green Bay faces a Vikings team that seems to have steadied over their last three games, though the Packers racked up six sacks and three takeaways when these teams last faced back in Week 5.
3. San Diego (vs. St. Louis) – Don’t let last week fool you, this Rams offense played well beyond their means against the Broncos. They’re still what we thought they were, and their true colors will show this weekend in San Diego.
4. Chicago (vs. Tampa Bay) – Besides Mike Evans, the Bucs managed 120 yards of total offense and last week. The Bears aren’t a great defense, but they might be better than you think, as Chicago currently sits in the peloton as the No. 19 unit in total defense. They’re a sneaky streamer this week against the bumbling Bucs’ offense.
Middle of the Road
These are fantasy option who will be streamers at times, but it’s best to avoid in this matchup.
Minnesota (vs. Green Bay) took advantage of a strong schedule in the middle of the season, but you want no piece of them against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers this week. … St. Louis (at San Diego) trending in the right direction, but it’s tough to trust them on the road against a Chargers offense that limits opportunities for big defensive plays. … J.J. Watt is fantastic, but even he can’t carry a Houston (vs. Cincinnati) unit that currently ranks No. 30 in total defense. … Surprisingly, the Texans have yet to yield double-digit fantasy points this season. That’s a good reason to fade Cincinnati (at Houston) this week. … Baltimore (at New Orleans) returns from bye and gets a tough matchup against a Saints team that hasn’t yielded double-digit fantasy points to an opposing defenisve since Week 2. … Cleveland (at Atlanta) came back to earth last week against the Texans and now have to go one the road to face a Falcons offense that tends to play much better at home. … Tennessee (at Philadelphia) has only produced one takeaway in their last three games. They’re not an ideal play on the road against an explosive Eagles offense. … While some may look to stream Dallas (at NY Giants) this week, I’m fading the Cowboys. Their lack of a consistent pass rush should give Eli Manning plenty of time to throw the ball. … Tampa Bay (at Chicago) took advantage of an inept Washington offense last week, but they face a much tougher foe in the resurgent Bears.
Matchup Downgrade
They shouldn’t be dropped, but a tough matchup limits the fantasy upside of these units.
1. Miami (at Denver) – You have like Miami next week against the Jets, but not here. Don’t get cute and think that you can get away with starting the Dolphins because Denver is banged up. It’s still the Broncos.
2. Detroit (at New England) – The Lions are arguably the league’s best defense this season, but they’re going to have their hands full on the road in Foxboro. With Vegas favoring New England by seven points, the smart money is on fading Detroit this week.
Bottom of the Barrel
Oakland (vs. Kansas City) remains fantasy’s No. 32 unit. … Despite a decent matchup, it’s tough to trust a NY Jets (at Buffalo) defense that has only produced seven takeaways on the season. … The NY Giants (vs. Dallas) have scored a combined two fantasy points over their last six games. … New Orleans (vs. Baltimore) lacks the punch they showed last season and currently sits 30th in fantasy scoring. … Not only does Jacksonville (at Indianapolis) struggle to score fantasy points, but they also face Andrew Luck and the Colts this week. … Atlanta (vs. Cleveland) is coming off two strong performances against NFC South foes, but they’ve really had a hard time against non-divisional competition this season. … The stars aligned for Washington (at San Francisco) last week and they managed a measly four fantasy points.
Streaming Ahead
Here are some potential streamers with good matchups in the coming weeks.
Week 13 – NY Giants at Jacksonville, Oakland at St. Louis, Cincinnati at Tampa Bay, St. Louis vs. Oakland, Minnesota vs. Carolina, Indianapolis vs. Washington
Week 14 – Houston at Jacksonville, Washington vs. St. Louis, New Orleans vs. Carolina, Minnesota vs. NY Jets, St. Louis at Washington
Week 15 – Baltimore vs. Jacksonville, Carolina vs. Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay at Carolina, Tennessee vs. NY Jets, NY Giants vs. Washington
Can I Kick it?
Here are my top 12 kickers for Week 12:
1. Adam Vinatieri (vs. JAC)
2. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. DET)
3. Dan Bailey (at NYG)
4. Cody Parkey (vs. TEN)
5. Phil Dawson (vs. WAS)
6. Justin Tucker (at NO)
7. Mason Crosby (at MIN)
8. Matt Bryant (vs. CLE)
9. Nick Novak (vs. STL)
10. Steven Hauschka (vs. ARI)
11. Dan Carpenter (vs. NYJ)
12. Cairo Santos (at OAK)
D/ST Standard Scoring System |
|||||||
Any Touchdown |
6 pts |
0 points allowed |
5 pts |
Under 100 yards allowed |
5 pts |
||
Interception |
2 pts |
1-6 points allowed |
4 pts |
101 to 199 yards allowed |
3 pts |
||
Fumble Recovery |
2 pts |
7-13 points allowed |
3 pts |
200 to 299 yards allowed |
2 pts |
||
Blocked Kick |
2 pts |
14-17 points allowed |
1 pt |
300 to 349 yards allowed |
0 pts |
||
Safety |
2 pts |
18-27 points allowed |
0 pts |
350 to 399 yards allowed |
-1 pts |
||
Sack |
1 pt |
28-34 points allowed |
-1 pts |
400 to 449 yards allowed |
-3 pts |
||
35-45 points allowed |
-3 pts |
450 to 499 yards allowed |
-5 pts |
||||
46+ points allowed |
-5 pts |
500- 549 yards allowed |
-6 pts |
||||
550+ yards allowed |
-7 pts |
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