The Denver Broncos hope to bounce back from a disappointing road loss when they return home for a matchup with the Miami Dolphins Sunday. The Broncos fell 22-7 to the St. Louis Rams last week as eight-point favorites. They have dropped seven of the past 10 meetings with the Dolphins, who have gone 8-2 against the spread in those games.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.6-30.6 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami enjoyed some extra time off following a 22-9 victory against the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night, with the defense stepping up yet again and limiting the opposition to just three field goals. The Dolphins rank second in the NFL in total defense, giving up 302.5 yards per game, and they are fourth in points allowed, surrendering an average of 18.

Denver showed last week that a great defense can beat a great offense, as the Broncos struggled in the loss to the Rams. Miami has limited its last five opponents to 20 points or less and won four of those games. The Dolphins would love their chances to pull off the road upset with another defensive performance like that.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos rarely play two bad games in a row, and last year they followed up each of their three losses during the regular season with a win and cover. They just completed a tough stretch of three straight road games—losing two of them—and have been money at home lately, going 3-0 against the spread in their last three in Denver and winning those games by an average of 20 points.

Quarterback Peyton Manning may need to rely more on his arm with the running game struggling, but anybody who has watched him play during his Hall of Fame career knows that is more than fine with him and not good for his opponents.

Smart Pick

The Broncos feed off their home crowd about as well as any team in the league, which is why playing there right now is exactly what they need. Even though they have a tough divisional matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on deck, they will want to be at their best in that game and get back on track with a big win here first.

While Miami has won three road games this year, none of the opponents—the Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars—had a real home-field advantage like Denver will have in this game.

The Broncos should also be able to pressure Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, forcing him into mistakes that will allow them to win and cover the spread.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Miami’s last six games when playing Denver,
• Denver is 2-5 straight up in its last seven games when playing Miami.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.