NBA Fantasy Trends: Use It or Lose It
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
We’re back with the second edition of Use It or Lose It! In case you missed the introduction to advanced stats, check that out here and you can also check out the first edition right here, too. We’ve seen a lot of guys have some bumps in usage and we’ll get to some different guys, but we just have to lead off with Kobe Bryant.
Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for stats, analysis, Vines and commentary.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Tuesday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7:30pm ET on Tuesday. Here’s the FanDuel link.
He is posting an absolutely absurd usage of 38.9 this season, which would be the highest in a season since Basketball-Reference has been recording the stat (1985-86). He has the record at 38.7 in 2005-06 while Michael Jordan is second at 38.3 in 1986-87. His last game was particularly awesome with 44 points on 34 field goal attempts, 16 free throw attempts and two turnovers in just 31 minutes. That’s a usage rate of 51.8! AH!
Kobe is the first player since at least 1985-86 to take 30 field goals, 15 free throws and play less than 32 minutes. That’s also the highest usage rate with at least 30 shots since … you guess it: Kobe’s 81-point game in 2006 with his 56.8 (at least as far as I can tell based on 10 minutes of research). Yes, it’s no surprise he’s missed more shots than any player ever with a career 31.8 usage rate. By comparison Michael Jordan had a usage of 33.3 in his career. The Black Mamba is a beast and has such a fun player to watch this season. So who else is making noise with usage lately?
Jimmy Butler – There are not many players creating a buzz quite like the Jimmy and he’s actually earning the nickname Jimmy Buckets. In nine-cat leagues, Butler has been a top-10 per-game player on the season and the No. 4 player over the past two weeks for total value! Fourth!
Last season, he wasn’t used much and his inefficiency was by far his biggest weakness. Butler didn’t get enough shots to qualify for field goal percentage, but he would have had the sixth-worst effective field goal percentage among 125 guys. This season he’s increased it more than 10 percent to 54.9.
His usage rate was just 16.9 last season while running at a pace of 92.5 possessions per 48 minutes. This year, it’s up to 21.1 on the season at a pace of 95.3. On top of that, it’s really jumped up without Derrick Rose, posting a usage of 26.3 in his last two Rose-less games.
So the big question is can he keep up this efficiency? Butler probably won’t be this good, but I think he’s fixed a lot of his problems.
The big one is that he’s taking 46.3 percent of his shots from within 10 feet — up from 38.9 last season. He is also shooting a solid 65.2 percent at the rim and that’s up from 57.0. The big bump at the rim isn’t a surprise because several players needed three or four years to get it over 60 percent.
Another interesting thing is that his unassisted buckets have been about the same, which doesn’t really happen with a guy who sees such a big bump in usage. That means he’s move a lot better without the ball and that was highly evident against the Clippers last night. Butler was able to get outstanding position and coach Doc Rivers just didn’t have an answer for him. Butler posted a line of 22 points, six rebounds, eight assists, two steals and one 3-pointer in the big win.
Most of these stats have a lot to do with Rose sitting, but what about when Rose is on the floor? Well, when Rose is on the floor, Butler does only have a 14.2 usage rate — Rose has a 31.6 usage next to Butler. On the bright side, Butler has a ridiculous 70.0 effective field goal percentage next to Rose. Interestingly, most of his passes have come from the bigs with Joakim Noah passing the ball to Butler more than any other player at 8.6 passes per game.
On top of the usage, Jimmy’s assists, blocks, boards, 3-pointers and free throw percentage are all career highs and the breakout is real. He won’t be a top-10 guy, but I think top 30 is a realistic expectation. If you play daily, it’s almost impossible to pass up on Jimmy on nights Rose sits.
Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten – We covered this last week, but let’s take a look at it with MCW now in the lineup because it’s a very hot topic in fantasy. #HotTakes, you guys!
MCW has come flying out of the gates in usage rate at 30.7. He also put up a 38.9 assist percentage in his first three games, so the amount of plays he’s been a part of is at an elite level.
His usage is actually up from last season’s 25.6 and he did only have a 29.2 assist percentage, too. It does make sense for the 76ers to give him more shots because guys like Thaddeus Young are in Minnesota. I’s also worth noting he did have a usage of 26.1 next to Wroten last season.
I think we can probably assume MCW’s usage will be up to around 28 this season. If he gets his minutes up to around 34, keeps his assist percent close to 30 and the 76ers continue to run at a fast pace, MCW is going to fill up the stat sheet. He’ll be great in daily leagues and points formats, but I’m not interested in him in standard leagues because of woeful effective field goal percentage and sub-par foul shooting.
So what about Mr. Wroten? In the last three games he has a usage of 27.4 and he’s posted averages of 12.7 points, 3.0 boards, 4.3 assists and 1.3 triples. On the downside, he shot just 37.8 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from the line and turned the ball over 4.3 times. Yes, a 1:1 assist:turnover ratio will not help make a case that a player should handle the ball more.
Last season he had a usage of 24.7 next to MCW, which seems about where he’ll be this year. It looks like they’re not going to play together too much, though. They have played together for 12.0 minutes per game with both guys at around 30 minutes per. Wroten has a 26.5 usage with MCW so far, so that looks like it’ll hold.
As mentioned last week, if Wroten is indeed going to start at shooting guard, it’s going to be hard for the 76ers to get someone to handle the ball while both MCW and Wroten are on the bench. Personally, I don’t think they should do it and Wroten should be coming off the bench. It probably won’t hurt his fantasy value overall because his usage will be extremely high in the awful second unit.
There are just too many negatives to use him in nine-cat leagues. As for FanDuel, I wouldn’t touch Wroten until his price comes down to around $5.5K or so.
Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green – Yes, another repeat from last week, but it’s stunning to see two guys with such high usage rates. In fact, among the players logging between 14 and 27 minutes per game not named Russell Westbrook, Green (29.3) and IT3 (28.0) are first and second. It’s pretty obvious those two guys will throw a wrench into the guard rotation. Plus, that is going to really hurt the wings like P.J. Tucker coming off the bench. Although, I wouldn’t be concerned about red-hot Alex Len because he’s not going to need a high usage rate. Len will get his production on efficiency, blocks and boards.
Here are some other guys logging less minutes with higher usage rates:
Alexey Shved – I know. I know. He’s one of the worst players from an efficiency standpoint in recent memory, but he’s posting an impressive 26.7 usage and he’s doing it while shooting 32.8 percent from the field in 17.1 minutes per game.
Amazingly, his minutes haven’t dropped too much since Michael Carter-Williams made his season debut at 14.0 minutes per game and actually only 2.8 of those minutes came in the fourth, so it wasn’t garbage time.
Yes, I know you couldn’t care less about Shved for your fantasy team, but the point I’m trying to make is that there are a lot of opportunities for the 76ers. I don’t know why he’s even on their team unless it’s because they’re trying to lose on purpose. He is just wasting opportunities and they should go to Wroten, K.J. McDaniels and Robert Covington.
Quick aside: The 76ers are putting up plus-minus numbers in unbelievable fashion. Luc Mbah a Moute has a minus-13.8 in just 26.2 minutes per game. Shved is minus-8.1 in 17.1 minutes and JaKarr Sampson is -8.1 in 11.2. Unreal.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – His usage isn’t really that high at just 21.6, but let’s talk about him anyway because he’s going to be in the starting lineup for what looks to be the foreseeable future.
His usage is up quite a bit from the 15.0 in his rookie season, but the big difference has been efficiency. Antetokounmpo only had an eFG% of 46.3 last season and it’s gone up to 53.3 this year. If that can continue and the minutes continue to rise, it could lead to big production. Can it continue, though?
Well, there are some big differences in his scoring. A whopping 73.3 percent of his shots have come from within 10 feet this season —up from 55.6. That’s a very encouraging sign because he really can’t shoot. He’s actually been awful off the dribble, too. Here’s a quick look at his off-the-dribble shots from NBA.com/stats (2014-15 is on top):
The huge difference has been his scoring without a dribble. The frequency is down, but wow that 73.0 eFG% is terrific. He is only catch-and-shooting on 8.9 percent of his attempts this season and has made just 25.0 percent of those. The frequency was at 28.6 last year and he was a little better making 28.9 percent.
As you could imagine, it’s also all about at the rim. He’s making 64.8 percent at the rim this season, which is up from 55.0 last season. It’s pretty clear he’s moving a lot better without the ball and his type of shot has been a huge indicator too:
He’s not a jump shooter and he knows it. Alphabet getting dunks and layups has gone a long way. Teams might cover him a little differently, but there is still a great chance he can put up 50.0 eFG%.
There are going to be some bad games and he might be a headache, but he should be owned everywhere now that it looks like coach Jason Kidd is going to unleash the Greek Freak.
Kanter is shooting the ball very well this season at 54.2 percent and his 0.5 treys give him a 57.0 eFG%. The big difference has been his catch-and-shoot shots, turning in a 59.5 eFG% on his 3.4 attempts per game — 34.6 percent of his shot total. Kanter was at a 39.2 eFG% on catch-and-shoot attempts last year.
Besides that massive difference, most of his numbers are pretty much the same. Even with the huge increase in usage and efficiency, he’s still just the 144th-best player in nine-cat leagues. The upside just isn’t there for year-long leagues. Although, I am interested in using him in daily fantasy in the right matchup.
We’re back with the second edition of Use It or Lose It! In case you missed the introduction to advanced stats, check that out here and you can also check out the first edition right here, too. We’ve seen a lot of guys have some bumps in usage and we’ll get to some different guys, but we just have to lead off with Kobe Bryant.
Follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for stats, analysis, Vines and commentary.
Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Tuesday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7:30pm ET on Tuesday. Here’s the FanDuel link.
He is posting an absolutely absurd usage of 38.9 this season, which would be the highest in a season since Basketball-Reference has been recording the stat (1985-86). He has the record at 38.7 in 2005-06 while Michael Jordan is second at 38.3 in 1986-87. His last game was particularly awesome with 44 points on 34 field goal attempts, 16 free throw attempts and two turnovers in just 31 minutes. That’s a usage rate of 51.8! AH!
Kobe is the first player since at least 1985-86 to take 30 field goals, 15 free throws and play less than 32 minutes. That’s also the highest usage rate with at least 30 shots since … you guess it: Kobe’s 81-point game in 2006 with his 56.8 (at least as far as I can tell based on 10 minutes of research). Yes, it’s no surprise he’s missed more shots than any player ever with a career 31.8 usage rate. By comparison Michael Jordan had a usage of 33.3 in his career. The Black Mamba is a beast and has such a fun player to watch this season. So who else is making noise with usage lately?
Jimmy Butler – There are not many players creating a buzz quite like the Jimmy and he’s actually earning the nickname Jimmy Buckets. In nine-cat leagues, Butler has been a top-10 per-game player on the season and the No. 4 player over the past two weeks for total value! Fourth!
Last season, he wasn’t used much and his inefficiency was by far his biggest weakness. Butler didn’t get enough shots to qualify for field goal percentage, but he would have had the sixth-worst effective field goal percentage among 125 guys. This season he’s increased it more than 10 percent to 54.9.
His usage rate was just 16.9 last season while running at a pace of 92.5 possessions per 48 minutes. This year, it’s up to 21.1 on the season at a pace of 95.3. On top of that, it’s really jumped up without Derrick Rose, posting a usage of 26.3 in his last two Rose-less games.
So the big question is can he keep up this efficiency? Butler probably won’t be this good, but I think he’s fixed a lot of his problems.
The big one is that he’s taking 46.3 percent of his shots from within 10 feet — up from 38.9 last season. He is also shooting a solid 65.2 percent at the rim and that’s up from 57.0. The big bump at the rim isn’t a surprise because several players needed three or four years to get it over 60 percent.
Another interesting thing is that his unassisted buckets have been about the same, which doesn’t really happen with a guy who sees such a big bump in usage. That means he’s move a lot better without the ball and that was highly evident against the Clippers last night. Butler was able to get outstanding position and coach Doc Rivers just didn’t have an answer for him. Butler posted a line of 22 points, six rebounds, eight assists, two steals and one 3-pointer in the big win.
Most of these stats have a lot to do with Rose sitting, but what about when Rose is on the floor? Well, when Rose is on the floor, Butler does only have a 14.2 usage rate — Rose has a 31.6 usage next to Butler. On the bright side, Butler has a ridiculous 70.0 effective field goal percentage next to Rose. Interestingly, most of his passes have come from the bigs with Joakim Noah passing the ball to Butler more than any other player at 8.6 passes per game.
On top of the usage, Jimmy’s assists, blocks, boards, 3-pointers and free throw percentage are all career highs and the breakout is real. He won’t be a top-10 guy, but I think top 30 is a realistic expectation. If you play daily, it’s almost impossible to pass up on Jimmy on nights Rose sits.
Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten – We covered this last week, but let’s take a look at it with MCW now in the lineup because it’s a very hot topic in fantasy. #HotTakes, you guys!
MCW has come flying out of the gates in usage rate at 30.7. He also put up a 38.9 assist percentage in his first three games, so the amount of plays he’s been a part of is at an elite level.
His usage is actually up from last season’s 25.6 and he did only have a 29.2 assist percentage, too. It does make sense for the 76ers to give him more shots because guys like Thaddeus Young are in Minnesota. I’s also worth noting he did have a usage of 26.1 next to Wroten last season.
I think we can probably assume MCW’s usage will be up to around 28 this season. If he gets his minutes up to around 34, keeps his assist percent close to 30 and the 76ers continue to run at a fast pace, MCW is going to fill up the stat sheet. He’ll be great in daily leagues and points formats, but I’m not interested in him in standard leagues because of woeful effective field goal percentage and sub-par foul shooting.
So what about Mr. Wroten? In the last three games he has a usage of 27.4 and he’s posted averages of 12.7 points, 3.0 boards, 4.3 assists and 1.3 triples. On the downside, he shot just 37.8 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from the line and turned the ball over 4.3 times. Yes, a 1:1 assist:turnover ratio will not help make a case that a player should handle the ball more.
Last season he had a usage of 24.7 next to MCW, which seems about where he’ll be this year. It looks like they’re not going to play together too much, though. They have played together for 12.0 minutes per game with both guys at around 30 minutes per. Wroten has a 26.5 usage with MCW so far, so that looks like it’ll hold.
As mentioned last week, if Wroten is indeed going to start at shooting guard, it’s going to be hard for the 76ers to get someone to handle the ball while both MCW and Wroten are on the bench. Personally, I don’t think they should do it and Wroten should be coming off the bench. It probably won’t hurt his fantasy value overall because his usage will be extremely high in the awful second unit.
There are just too many negatives to use him in nine-cat leagues. As for FanDuel, I wouldn’t touch Wroten until his price comes down to around $5.5K or so.
Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green – Yes, another repeat from last week, but it’s stunning to see two guys with such high usage rates. In fact, among the players logging between 14 and 27 minutes per game not named Russell Westbrook, Green (29.3) and IT3 (28.0) are first and second. It’s pretty obvious those two guys will throw a wrench into the guard rotation. Plus, that is going to really hurt the wings like P.J. Tucker coming off the bench. Although, I wouldn’t be concerned about red-hot Alex Len because he’s not going to need a high usage rate. Len will get his production on efficiency, blocks and boards.
Here are some other guys logging less minutes with higher usage rates:
Alexey Shved – I know. I know. He’s one of the worst players from an efficiency standpoint in recent memory, but he’s posting an impressive 26.7 usage and he’s doing it while shooting 32.8 percent from the field in 17.1 minutes per game.
Amazingly, his minutes haven’t dropped too much since Michael Carter-Williams made his season debut at 14.0 minutes per game and actually only 2.8 of those minutes came in the fourth, so it wasn’t garbage time.
Yes, I know you couldn’t care less about Shved for your fantasy team, but the point I’m trying to make is that there are a lot of opportunities for the 76ers. I don’t know why he’s even on their team unless it’s because they’re trying to lose on purpose. He is just wasting opportunities and they should go to Wroten, K.J. McDaniels and Robert Covington.
Quick aside: The 76ers are putting up plus-minus numbers in unbelievable fashion. Luc Mbah a Moute has a minus-13.8 in just 26.2 minutes per game. Shved is minus-8.1 in 17.1 minutes and JaKarr Sampson is -8.1 in 11.2. Unreal.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – His usage isn’t really that high at just 21.6, but let’s talk about him anyway because he’s going to be in the starting lineup for what looks to be the foreseeable future.
His usage is up quite a bit from the 15.0 in his rookie season, but the big difference has been efficiency. Antetokounmpo only had an eFG% of 46.3 last season and it’s gone up to 53.3 this year. If that can continue and the minutes continue to rise, it could lead to big production. Can it continue, though?
Well, there are some big differences in his scoring. A whopping 73.3 percent of his shots have come from within 10 feet this season —up from 55.6. That’s a very encouraging sign because he really can’t shoot. He’s actually been awful off the dribble, too. Here’s a quick look at his off-the-dribble shots from NBA.com/stats (2014-15 is on top):
The huge difference has been his scoring without a dribble. The frequency is down, but wow that 73.0 eFG% is terrific. He is only catch-and-shooting on 8.9 percent of his attempts this season and has made just 25.0 percent of those. The frequency was at 28.6 last year and he was a little better making 28.9 percent.
As you could imagine, it’s also all about at the rim. He’s making 64.8 percent at the rim this season, which is up from 55.0 last season. It’s pretty clear he’s moving a lot better without the ball and his type of shot has been a huge indicator too:
He’s not a jump shooter and he knows it. Alphabet getting dunks and layups has gone a long way. Teams might cover him a little differently, but there is still a great chance he can put up 50.0 eFG%.
There are going to be some bad games and he might be a headache, but he should be owned everywhere now that it looks like coach Jason Kidd is going to unleash the Greek Freak.
Kanter is shooting the ball very well this season at 54.2 percent and his 0.5 treys give him a 57.0 eFG%. The big difference has been his catch-and-shoot shots, turning in a 59.5 eFG% on his 3.4 attempts per game — 34.6 percent of his shot total. Kanter was at a 39.2 eFG% on catch-and-shoot attempts last year.
Besides that massive difference, most of his numbers are pretty much the same. Even with the huge increase in usage and efficiency, he’s still just the 144th-best player in nine-cat leagues. The upside just isn’t there for year-long leagues. Although, I am interested in using him in daily fantasy in the right matchup.
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