Week 11 NFL Picks: Patriots will knock off Colts, Eagles will cover – CBSSports.com

Can Andrew Luck knock off New England? (USATSI)

Each week, we’ll take the best — and most clever — odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no impact, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread, and all statistics only include the regular season.

Game One: Colts -3.5 vs. Patriots
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 7-2	Overall: 5-4
Home: 3-1	Home: 3-2
Away: 4-1	Away: 2-2

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 1st	Pass defense: 13th
Rush offense: 14th	Rush defense: 22nd
Pass defense: 26th	Pass offense: 8th
Rush defense: 9th	Rush offense: 19th

Verdict: Immediately after seeing this line, I liked the Patriots. Mostly because of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and the fact that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has thrown a combined seven interceptions the two times he’s played New England. But then I saw this tweet.

Against teams with winning records since 2012: Tom Brady is 0-7 on the road, Andrew Luck is 8-1 at home.

— Kyle J. Rodriguez (@ColtsAuth_Kyle) November 14, 2014

Now, I don’t know what to think. Actually, that’s not true. The Patriots have won five straight, and I like them to continue that streak by beating Indianapolis. Go with the Patriots.

Game Two: Packers -6.5 vs. Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-3-1	Overall: 6-3
Home: 3-0-1	Home: 4-1
Away: 2-3	Away: 2-2

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 10th	Pass defense: 21st
Rush offense: 18th	Rush defense: 19th
Pass defense: 9th	Pass offense: 5th
Rush defense: 30th	Rush offense: 13th

Verdict: Out of all my CBSSports.com colleagues, I’m the only one going with the Eagles here. The reason: the Eagles, so far, haven’t experienced a downshift in their play after losing Nick Foles at quarterback and starting Mark Sanchez. The offense, from what we can tell, will continue to succeed with Sanchez running it. The Packers are coming off an enormous victory vs. the Bears last week, but it’ll be tough for Aaron Rodgers to continue his nearly-perfect play when he faces off against a tough Philadelphia pass rush. The Packers probably will win this game, but Philadelphia will cover.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Chargers -10.5 vs. Raiders
Monday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 5-4	Overall: 4-5
Home: 3-1	Home: 1-4
Away: 2-3	Away: 3-1

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 11th	Pass defense: 17th
Rush offense: 29th	Rush defense: 27th
Pass defense: 9th	Pass offense: 24th
Rush defense: 17th	Rush offense: 31st

Verdict: At some point, the Raiders are going to get their first win of the season. Even though they’re 0-9, they actually have talent on the team. But with the Chargers coming off their bye and on a three-game losing streak, this week won’t be the week for Oakland to win. San Diego will play mad and will win this game by two touchdowns, especially if Ryan Mathews returns to action.

Prop bets

Total sacks Week 11 — Aldon Smith

Over ½ (-240, 5/12)

Under ½ (+200, 2/1)

Smith hasn’t played since the end of last season, and it’s a good bet that he won’t participate in his normal number of snaps. He’ll likely be rusty, and since we figure he’ll see limited action, I’d go under.

Total passing yards Week 11 — Ryan Mallett

Over/Under 210½

I don’t have much faith that Mallett will be the savior Texans coach Bill O’Brien likely hopes he can be. I’d go under.

Last week: 3-0 against the spread; 2-0 on prop bets. This season: 18-12 against the spread; 10-13 on prop bets. Last three seasons: 74-75 against the spread; 60-48-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the CBSSports.com experts here.

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