The midway point of the season has passed, and the focus has shifted to positioning for the playoffs for many of the NFL‘s top teams as we enter Week 11.

As so many weekend slates do at this time of year, the schedule doesn’t disappoint and features a handful of matchups between the league’s best teams. Whether it’s a showdown we’re likely to see come the postseason or simply a chance for teams to add a much-needed win, the stakes will be undeniably high.

When talking about a parity-driven league, there are no true safe picks—anything can happen on any given Sunday. But with recent momentum and the play of certain personnel, those educated guesses can turn into sound predictions.

Let’s break down predictions against the spread for every Week 11 matchup and take a closer look at the best ones.

Note: Latest odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and last updated Nov. 15 at 4 p.m. ET 

Best Picks

Washington (-9) over Tampa Bay

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Washington Redskins on Sunday in the nation’s capital, and it smells of doom for one of the NFL’s hapless franchises.

For the first time in a while, the Redskins can’t be described as that. They won two of three heading into their Week 10 bye, and quarterback Robert Griffin III has knocked off some of the rust since returning to the field.

More importantly, hard-fought losses against Seattle and Arizona followed up by a win in Dallas has Washington feeling incredibly confident entering the second half of the year. Lake Lewis Jr. of SportsJourney.com noticed the locker room mentality:

Its definitely a calmness & business type approach in #Redskins locker room. I’m looking forward to Sunday for this team. @sportsjourney

— Lake Lewis Jr (@LakeLewis) November 12, 2014

The Redskins offense has remained potent without RG3, ranking sixth in the league in passing offense. With Griffin back and firing on all cylinders, he’s set for a field day against the Bucs’ 31st-ranked passing defense that concedes 277 yards aerially per contest.

Washington’s surging defense will hold a woeful Tampa Bay offense to less than 15 points, and Griffin will connect on a couple of big plays to receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to make for a lopsided victory.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Bucs 13

Cincinnati (+7.5) over New Orleans

Wins are becoming awfully hard to come by for both the Bengals and Saints, and two playoff hopefuls will look to avoid falling further into a hole in a Week 11 showdown in the Superdome.

OK, so they’re playing in the Superdome. Chalk up a resounding Saints victory, right?

Well, maybe not. New Orleans’ dominance at home hit somewhat of a speed bump over the past weekend, when the 49ers overcame the Saints in overtime thanks to another late Drew Brees turnover.

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The Bengals don’t feature the physical dynamos on defense that San Francisco does, but they have a similarly dangerous offense—even with running back Giovani Bernard banged up due to multiple injuries. Quarterback Andy Dalton is coming off one of his worst performances ever (10-of-33 for 86 yards and three interceptions against Cleveland), but things will be much more promising against a 24th-ranked Saints pass defense.

What makes this truly easy to bet on, however, is the massive spread. You don’t even have to convince yourself that the Saints will lose—just that the final score will be by a touchdown or less.

That’s an awfully easy gamble to make when you’re talking about two teams as similarly talented as these two.

Prediction: Saints 31, Bengals 28

Pittsburgh (-7) over Tennessee

It’s not very often that you’ll see a home team playing on Monday Night Football as a touchdown underdog. It’s also not very often that you have a 2-7 team with a rookie quarterback and huge struggles on both sides of the ball playing in prime time.

Alas, this isn’t where most expected the Titans to be—even those who predicted a step back in Ken Whisenhunt’s first year at the helm. And the big, bad Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to town to make things even worse.

ESPN’s promotions for the game say everything you need to know, per 247Sports’ Terry McCormick:

Monday Night Football promo for next week shows Ben Roethlisberger and #Steelers and simply says they are playing the #Titans.

— Terry McCormick (@terrymc13) November 11, 2014

Of course, the Steelers have some recent memory in allowing a hapless foe to end a losing streak—the Jets toppled them 20-13 in Week 10 to end an eight-game skid. But the Titans don’t have Michael Vick; they have Zach Mettenberger, who, as talented as he may be, doesn’t have the tools around him to play winning football just yet.

Le’Veon Bell will run rampant against the Titans’ 29th-ranked run defense, and Ben Roethlisberger will be much more comfortable in the pocket, as Tennessee’s defensive front doesn’t come close to New York’s. 

Down multiple scores in the second half, the Titans will play desperate and Pittsburgh’s defense will continue teeing off en route to a lopsided win.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Titans 17