NFL Picks: Week 11 Against the Spread – Bleacher Report In my column last week, I pulled a George Costanza—and it worked to near perfection. Yes, like George, when it has come to predicting outcomes of football games this season, nearly every instinct I’ve had has been wrong. So after pooping the proverbial bed and going 1-7 the prior two weeks, I decided to find the games I had the most confidence in—you know, those can’t-lose, no-brainer (I believe the pros call them “locks of the week”) picks…and then promptly went in the opposite direction. The result? A 3-1 week, vaulting me ahead of pro bettor and founder of Big Time Sharps Bill Davis. Davis, a math professor by trade, has his elaborate formula, comprised of meticulous algorithmic equations based on thousands of hours of research. Now I have mine: Stick with Seinfeldisms and go bizarro! Without further ado, let’s see if I can remain “master of my domain” and retain my “bizarro” lead (lines courtesy of ESPN). Last Week Davis: 1-3 Glauser: 3-1 Total Davis: 3-9 Glauser: 4-8 “These two teams have underperformed so far this season and yet are not out of the hunt behind the division-leading 4-5 Saints. The mediocrity of the NFC South is exacerbated by the total point differential: Atlanta has scored 219 points yet given up 238, while Carolina is at 198 points for and 281 points against.” Pick against the spread: “The Davis Equation has the Falcons as the better mediocre team and beating the Panthers in Carolina.” The Giants have lost their last four games by an average of 34-15. The injury-ravaged Niners had a nice character win last week in overtime against the Saints and, at 5-4, remain in the thick of the NFC playoff race. Pick against the spread: The “bizarro equation” has the Giants covering—and likely winning by a score of 34-15. “These two ball-control offenses couldn’t be more similar. Russell Wilson has 1,841 yards passing; Alex Smith has 1869. Both teams have more rushing touchdowns than passing. Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver yet this year, and Russell Wilson has thrown only four. However, Seattle has given up a touchdown more per game than has Kansas City over the past three games.” Pick against the spread: “The Davis equation has the Chiefs defeating the Seahawks at home.” After a 5-1 start, the battery life seems to be dying for the free-falling Chargers, losers of three in a row, including being outscored 72-21 in their last two. True, the winless Raiders may struggle to beat a powder puff team right now, but five of their seven losses have been by 10 points or less. Pick against the spread: San Diego will win going away, most likely by 72-21. “Tampa Bay benched Mike Glennon for Josh McCown last game. Although McCown has a better completion percentage this year (63.1 versus Glennon’s 57.6), Glennon has been much more secure with the ball with a 5-3 touchdown-interception ratio compared to McCown’s 2-3. Neither has been stellar, and it’s not going to get any better.” Pick against the spread: “The Davis Equation has the Redskins winning and covering the spread.” These two offensive juggernauts scored a combined 100 points in their respective games last week and have the potential to cover the over all by themselves in any given contest. Both average north of 30 a game and have secondaries prone to giving up the big play. Pick against the spread: Expect a methodical, defensive affair. Naturally. “Is Aaron Rodgers going to throw for six touchdowns every time he steps on the field this season from here on out? Is Mark Sanchez reborn into a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in the Chip Kelly offensive system? The answer to both questions is probably not. “Both teams have performed well in recent weeks, but I give the edge to Green Bay—not only because of the obvious advantage at quarterback but also to turnover margin: Green Bay has a plus-1.1 turnover margin per game while Philly has a minus-0.6.” Pick against the spread: “The Davis Equation has the Packers defeating the Eagles by at least six points.” The Titans are not very good. After going Opposite Costanza in Week 1 with an impressive victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, they have won just one other game—a squeaker over Division 1-AA foe Jacksonville University Dolphins. (Wait, that was the Jags? Close enough.) Meanwhile, the Steelers had their streak of three impressive wins broken last week in a clunker against the Jets and look to bounce back. Pick against the spread: Watch the Titans win outright. Just because that’s how it works in Bizarro World. All quotes from Bill Davis acquired firsthand.
A Titans victory over the Steelers? Anything’s possible in Bizarro World.
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