The initial version of my 2014 Dynasty Rookie Rankings was published on May 13 and can be read here. These are my revised rankings just after the halfway point of the 2014 season.

Quarterbacks

Sheer upside is what I foremost seek in a Dynasty rookie quarterback, because opportunity is limited. There are only 32 starters in the league, and teams don’t use more than one at once. (That isn’t the case for running backs, receivers, and to a lesser extent tight ends.) This is also fantasy’s most replaceable position. I either want someone who gives me an extremely high-scoring ceiling every week, or I’m “streaming” and chasing week-to-week matchups at quarterback.

1. Blake Bortles, Jaguars

Bortles has endured a predictably rocky and turnover-filled rookie year, but I think he’s still flashed the necessary attributes to become a top 7-10 fantasy quarterback down the road. Although too often to a fault at this stage of his career, Bortles plays the game with an aggressive mentality and has plus arm strength. Bortles is also a more effective runner than Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. The Jaguars have done a good job of building a promising offensive supporting cast around Bortles.

2. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots

I was admittedly pessimistic on Garoppolo coming out of Eastern Illinois. But the Patriots showed a ton of confidence in him, trading Ryan Mallett for peanuts and rolling with just two quarterbacks on their 53-man roster. A poised, comfortable passer with a quick release, impressive zip on short to intermediate throws, and good athleticism, Garoppolo shined in the preseason and has moved New England’s offense in regular-season spot duty. Even as Tom Brady has re-established himself as an elite NFL quarterback, he will turn 38 before next season and the Pats have a second-round pick invested in Garoppolo. It’s conceivable Garoppolo won’t get an opportunity for another two years. But when he does, I think he will have a chance to be an every-week fantasy QB1.

3. Derek Carr, Raiders

Carr’s on-field performance has tailed off since a relatively fast start, but I think he’s still shown enough for Dynasty owners and Raiders fans to maintain some excitement. He can make frozen-rope throws on the run, and is one of the better athletes in this quarterback class. The biggest reason for worry with Carr is the dysfunctional environment around him. The Raiders are the most poorly-run organization in football. I think they are capable of ruining a good-looking prospect like Carr. If they don’t and begin to stockpile talent around him, Carr could become a borderline fantasy starter by as soon as 2015.

4. Johnny Manziel, Browns

Manziel’s ceiling remains intact — he is a highly aggressive football player with dynamic running ability — but he was overmatched in preseason action and has been held off easily by game-manager journeyman Brian Hoyer. There were loud whispers after the draft that Cleveland’s coaching staff didn’t want any part of Johnny Football, and the decision to pick him came directly from owner Jimmy Haslam. Manziel’s skill set is theoretically on par with Russell Wilson‘s, but there are enough red flags here for significant pause. He is a classic boom-or-bust prospect.

5. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Bridgewater is a smart, composed, timing-and-rhythm passer with talent limitations. He is a good athlete, but whether that athleticism will become a consistent asset for Bridgewater’s fantasy outlook depends entirely on how his coaching staff uses him. Bridgewater is small with small hands, and struggles to throw the football downfield and outside the numbers. My comparison for him coming out of Louisville was to an Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, and that evaluation has not changed. I’m confident Bridgewater will prove a stable NFL starter. I think it’s fair to wonder if he possesses a high enough ceiling to become a legitimate fantasy starter.

6. Logan Thomas, Cardinals

Thomas wasn’t a very good college quarterback and is an NFL long shot. He is also built like Ben Roethlisberger with a hose for an arm and tight end-caliber athleticism. Dynasty owners can only view Thomas as a lottery-ticket QB3/4, but he could theoretically become a Cam Newton type if coached to his maximum. Thomas is in good hands with Bruce Arians in Arizona, and 35-year-old starter Carson Palmer just suffered his second career ACL tear. The odds seem long that Thomas will hit. On the off chance he does, I think he would offer top-eight fantasy quarterback upside.

7. Zach Mettenberger, Titans

The 2014 sample size is too small to draw conclusions on Mettenberger’s fantasy outlook, but thus far he has fared concerningly poorly as a downfield passer for a quarterback prospect whose supposed strength is his vertical arm talent. Mettenberger has no hint of athleticism and a lot of things to learn to become an effective pocket player. I do think it’s within the realm of possibility that Mettenberger develops into a Carson Palmer type, though that would appear to be his absolute ceiling. He needs to be viewed as a limited-upside Dynasty QB3/4 for now.

8. Tom Savage, Texans

Because I expect Ryan Mallett to struggle in his forthcoming chances with the Texans, it would not surprise me if fourth-round rookie Savage made starts later this year. Savage is built ideally for the position and has a strong arm, and he could get an opportunity soon, at which point we should get a stronger evaluation. Savage looked good for the most part this preseason, completing 73% of his 26 throws for 133 yards, a touchdown, and a pick, and leading a game-winning drive in Houston’s third exhibition game. He’s another Dynasty QB3/4, albeit with less upside than Thomas and less opportunity than Mettenberger, at least for now.

9. Aaron Murray, Chiefs

A fifth-round pick, Murray’s window for opportunity took a hit when the Chiefs signed Alex Smith to a new five-year, $76 million contract in late August. Murray should still get a realistic shot to become Smith’s primary backup in 2015. Current Chiefs No. 2 quarterback Chase Daniel is owed a $3.75 million base salary next year and will be a release candidate. Murray is a smallish, mild-armed passer with a quick release but limited athleticism. He’s almost certainly a career NFL backup. I do think Murray could become a functional short-term spot starter in Andy Reid‘s system if something happened to Smith.

10. A.J. McCarron, Bengals

McCarron doesn’t drive the ball downfield and is a below-average athlete. I think the Bengals would be pleased if he developed into a long-term No. 2 quarterback.

Running Backs

Running backs have short shelf lives, so I factor immediate impact into these rankings just as much — and in some cases more — than long-term bankable talent. Regardless of scoring format, I also want running backs who are either already good at catching passes, or have shown some potential to become assets in the passing game. And I typically shy away from running backs I project as situational role players or “scatbacks.” I am targeting potential workhorses.

1. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings

A dynamic athlete with adequate size, McKinnon has flashed true foundation-back traits, averaging 4.96 yards on 90 rookie-year carries and progressing nicely in the passing game despite his college-quarterback background. Adrian Peterson appears likely to return from the Commissioner’s Exempt list in a few weeks, which might close McKinnon’s fantasy window for the rest of 2015. But Peterson turns 30 in March and is owed $13 million between salary and bonuses next year. McKinnon could become a legitimate RB1 and every-down back as a sophomore.

2. Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Hyde is another candidate for year-two RB1 production with Frank Gore finishing up his contract season and going on age 32. The Marcus Lattimore Experiment ended before it started, and Kendall Hunter is a change-of-pace back. Hyde is a chain-moving power runner who’s been as advertised while complementing Gore this year. He is already a functional passing-game contributor and appears plenty capable of eventually handling 20 carries a game. McKinnon offers a superior athletic profile, but Hyde is right there with him as this year’s top Dynasty rookie back.

3. Jeremy Hill, Bengals

Like a smoother version of Eddie Lacy, Hill is an offense sustainer who’s made the most of his rookie-year opportunities, averaging 4.70 YPC with five touchdowns on 86 runs. Also far more versatile than he was billed to be coming out of LSU, Hill has secured 15 of his 18 targets and is a natural receiver out of the backfield. Giovani Bernard is under contract cheaply through 2016, but is best suited to a pass-game and change-up role. Hill may lack McKinnon and Hyde’s RB1 ceiling due to Bernard’s presence, but all signs point to Hill being Cincinnati’s best option in a workhorse role.

4. Bishop Sankey, Titans

Sankey was the subject of heated pre-season debate between the tape and metrics crowds. Sankey ably handled a lot of volume at the University of Washington before shredding the Combine. On paper, he looked like a future NFL star. When you watched him play, Sankey looked more like Vick Ballard. Sankey is a 22-year-old all-purpose back with plenty of untapped potential, but so far he’s been more efficient on limited workloads and disappointed when the Titans have put more on his plate. Tennessee’s anemic offense certainly hasn’t helped his cause. I think the jury is still out on Sankey going forward. I think it’s also very possible that the Titans will never see him as a true foundation back, instead pairing him with a better inside runner next season. Doing so would curb Sankey’s volume and TD upside.

5. Tre Mason, Rams

Mason entered the league extremely raw, especially from a passing-game standpoint. He still errs in pass protection, but has incrementally improved and now appears entrenched as the lead back in St. Louis’ frustrating RBBC. This could be a good time to buy on Mason in Dynasty trades. Abnormally young, Mason didn’t turn 21 until August and was never a good bet to light up the stat sheet during his rookie year. He’s been more productive than I expected and has lots of room for growth. A difficult run-defense schedule down the stretch could further depress Mason’s perceived Dynasty stock. I expect Mason to solidify himself as the Rams’ clear-lead back by 2015.

6. Isaiah Crowell, Browns

Crowell is Cleveland’s most talented runner, but ball-security woes and a three-way RBBC have prevented him from taking off as a rookie. Terrance West has been more reliable, and the Browns have more invested in Ben Tate. Crowell’s ceiling is still easily the highest in Cleveland’s running back corps. If Crowell can work out some of his kinks — and keep his nose clean off the field — his box-score production will take off sooner rather than later. Running back-friendly OC Kyle Shanahan isn’t going anywhere, and Tate will be easy to cut this offseason. Crowell’s running ability is clearly superior to West’s.

7. Charles Sims, Buccaneers

Sims has played in one NFL game after fracturing his ankle in training camp. When healthy, he is poor man’s version of Matt Forte with outstanding versatility and functional inside running skills. The first-year Bucs front office has already turned the page on Doug Martin, and Bobby Rainey is probably a long-term No. 2 back. Although Sims’ talent doesn’t jump off the page, he should get every opportunity to become a useful RB2 in PPR leagues by next season. One factor working against Sims is his age. He’s already 24 years old and probably won’t get a whole lot better.

8. Andre Williams, Giants

Williams flopped in his four-game audition as the Giants’ starter and has been more effective in a complementary role behind Rashad Jennings. Williams’ pass-game limitations had a noticeably negative impact on New York’s offense, forcing OC Ben McAdoo to play Peyton Hillis more during Jennings’ absence. Parked at 2.94 YPC on 114 totes, Williams has a maddening tendency to run into the backs of his own blockers, and his tape shows very little agility despite impressive Combine measurables. Jennings turns 30 in March and has a lengthy history of knee injuries, so Williams’ opportunity window remains open. But he must improve his vision and polish his all-around game. He’s been a fantasy dud so far.

9. Terrance West, Browns

A good-not-great talent, West has risen atop the Browns’ three-man committee by staying assignment sound and gaining blocked yards. He’s been solid in the passing game, both as a receiver and pass protector. West is already an every-week RB2/flex in fantasy leagues, but his forward-looking outlook is more murky. Isaiah Crowell is the Browns’ best long-term running back prospect.

10. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens

Taliaferro isn’t a flashy runner, but he weighs 230 pounds and is tough to tackle when the blocking gives him a head of steam. He reminds me of a smaller but more versatile version of LeGarrette Blount. Justin Forsett has been an excellent addition to the Ravens’ offense, but is 29 years old and no one’s idea of a long-term solution. My guess is Taliaferro will end up competing with another back for the Ravens’ starting job during 2015 training camp. Taliaferro could take off in OC Gary Kubiak‘s running back-friendly system if he learns to run with lower pad level. He packs power and can pass block.

11. Ka’Deem Carey, Bears

Has been efficient with his chances. Matt Forte turns 29 next month.

12. Damien Williams, Dolphins

UDFA has had some nice moments in spot duty.

13. Alfred Blue, Texans

Shonn Greene-type talent. Sell as soon as possible in Dynasty leagues.

14. Devonta Freeman, Falcons

Will probably always be a committee back.

15. Storm Johnson, Jaguars

Seventh-round pick beaten out decisively by Denard Robinson.

16. James White, Patriots

Another career RBBC type. Has struggled since the preseason.

17. Juwan Thompson, Broncos

Underwhelming UDFA has made some noise on fullback dives.

18. Tyler Gaffney, Patriots

A Jackie Battle type. Missing rookie year with a torn meniscus.

19. Henry Josey, Jaguars

Explosive scatback starred in August. On Jags practice squad.

20. Marion Grice, Cardinals

Good receiving back. Unfortunately, not much of a runner.

The initial version of my 2014 Dynasty Rookie Rankings was published on May 13 and can be read here. These are my revised rankings just after the halfway point of the 2014 season.

Quarterbacks

Sheer upside is what I foremost seek in a Dynasty rookie quarterback, because opportunity is limited. There are only 32 starters in the league, and teams don’t use more than one at once. (That isn’t the case for running backs, receivers, and to a lesser extent tight ends.) This is also fantasy’s most replaceable position. I either want someone who gives me an extremely high-scoring ceiling every week, or I’m “streaming” and chasing week-to-week matchups at quarterback.

1. Blake Bortles, Jaguars

Bortles has endured a predictably rocky and turnover-filled rookie year, but I think he’s still flashed the necessary attributes to become a top 7-10 fantasy quarterback down the road. Although too often to a fault at this stage of his career, Bortles plays the game with an aggressive mentality and has plus arm strength. Bortles is also a more effective runner than Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. The Jaguars have done a good job of building a promising offensive supporting cast around Bortles.

2. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots

I was admittedly pessimistic on Garoppolo coming out of Eastern Illinois. But the Patriots showed a ton of confidence in him, trading Ryan Mallett for peanuts and rolling with just two quarterbacks on their 53-man roster. A poised, comfortable passer with a quick release, impressive zip on short to intermediate throws, and good athleticism, Garoppolo shined in the preseason and has moved New England’s offense in regular-season spot duty. Even as Tom Brady has re-established himself as an elite NFL quarterback, he will turn 38 before next season and the Pats have a second-round pick invested in Garoppolo. It’s conceivable Garoppolo won’t get an opportunity for another two years. But when he does, I think he will have a chance to be an every-week fantasy QB1.

3. Derek Carr, Raiders

Carr’s on-field performance has tailed off since a relatively fast start, but I think he’s still shown enough for Dynasty owners and Raiders fans to maintain some excitement. He can make frozen-rope throws on the run, and is one of the better athletes in this quarterback class. The biggest reason for worry with Carr is the dysfunctional environment around him. The Raiders are the most poorly-run organization in football. I think they are capable of ruining a good-looking prospect like Carr. If they don’t and begin to stockpile talent around him, Carr could become a borderline fantasy starter by as soon as 2015.

4. Johnny Manziel, Browns

Manziel’s ceiling remains intact — he is a highly aggressive football player with dynamic running ability — but he was overmatched in preseason action and has been held off easily by game-manager journeyman Brian Hoyer. There were loud whispers after the draft that Cleveland’s coaching staff didn’t want any part of Johnny Football, and the decision to pick him came directly from owner Jimmy Haslam. Manziel’s skill set is theoretically on par with Russell Wilson‘s, but there are enough red flags here for significant pause. He is a classic boom-or-bust prospect.

5. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Bridgewater is a smart, composed, timing-and-rhythm passer with talent limitations. He is a good athlete, but whether that athleticism will become a consistent asset for Bridgewater’s fantasy outlook depends entirely on how his coaching staff uses him. Bridgewater is small with small hands, and struggles to throw the football downfield and outside the numbers. My comparison for him coming out of Louisville was to an Alex Smith or Andy Dalton, and that evaluation has not changed. I’m confident Bridgewater will prove a stable NFL starter. I think it’s fair to wonder if he possesses a high enough ceiling to become a legitimate fantasy starter.

6. Logan Thomas, Cardinals

Thomas wasn’t a very good college quarterback and is an NFL long shot. He is also built like Ben Roethlisberger with a hose for an arm and tight end-caliber athleticism. Dynasty owners can only view Thomas as a lottery-ticket QB3/4, but he could theoretically become a Cam Newton type if coached to his maximum. Thomas is in good hands with Bruce Arians in Arizona, and 35-year-old starter Carson Palmer just suffered his second career ACL tear. The odds seem long that Thomas will hit. On the off chance he does, I think he would offer top-eight fantasy quarterback upside.

7. Zach Mettenberger, Titans

The 2014 sample size is too small to draw conclusions on Mettenberger’s fantasy outlook, but thus far he has fared concerningly poorly as a downfield passer for a quarterback prospect whose supposed strength is his vertical arm talent. Mettenberger has no hint of athleticism and a lot of things to learn to become an effective pocket player. I do think it’s within the realm of possibility that Mettenberger develops into a Carson Palmer type, though that would appear to be his absolute ceiling. He needs to be viewed as a limited-upside Dynasty QB3/4 for now.

8. Tom Savage, Texans

Because I expect Ryan Mallett to struggle in his forthcoming chances with the Texans, it would not surprise me if fourth-round rookie Savage made starts later this year. Savage is built ideally for the position and has a strong arm, and he could get an opportunity soon, at which point we should get a stronger evaluation. Savage looked good for the most part this preseason, completing 73% of his 26 throws for 133 yards, a touchdown, and a pick, and leading a game-winning drive in Houston’s third exhibition game. He’s another Dynasty QB3/4, albeit with less upside than Thomas and less opportunity than Mettenberger, at least for now.

9. Aaron Murray, Chiefs

A fifth-round pick, Murray’s window for opportunity took a hit when the Chiefs signed Alex Smith to a new five-year, $76 million contract in late August. Murray should still get a realistic shot to become Smith’s primary backup in 2015. Current Chiefs No. 2 quarterback Chase Daniel is owed a $3.75 million base salary next year and will be a release candidate. Murray is a smallish, mild-armed passer with a quick release but limited athleticism. He’s almost certainly a career NFL backup. I do think Murray could become a functional short-term spot starter in Andy Reid‘s system if something happened to Smith.

10. A.J. McCarron, Bengals

McCarron doesn’t drive the ball downfield and is a below-average athlete. I think the Bengals would be pleased if he developed into a long-term No. 2 quarterback.

Running Backs

Running backs have short shelf lives, so I factor immediate impact into these rankings just as much — and in some cases more — than long-term bankable talent. Regardless of scoring format, I also want running backs who are either already good at catching passes, or have shown some potential to become assets in the passing game. And I typically shy away from running backs I project as situational role players or “scatbacks.” I am targeting potential workhorses.

1. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings

A dynamic athlete with adequate size, McKinnon has flashed true foundation-back traits, averaging 4.96 yards on 90 rookie-year carries and progressing nicely in the passing game despite his college-quarterback background. Adrian Peterson appears likely to return from the Commissioner’s Exempt list in a few weeks, which might close McKinnon’s fantasy window for the rest of 2015. But Peterson turns 30 in March and is owed $13 million between salary and bonuses next year. McKinnon could become a legitimate RB1 and every-down back as a sophomore.

2. Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Hyde is another candidate for year-two RB1 production with Frank Gore finishing up his contract season and going on age 32. The Marcus Lattimore Experiment ended before it started, and Kendall Hunter is a change-of-pace back. Hyde is a chain-moving power runner who’s been as advertised while complementing Gore this year. He is already a functional passing-game contributor and appears plenty capable of eventually handling 20 carries a game. McKinnon offers a superior athletic profile, but Hyde is right there with him as this year’s top Dynasty rookie back.

3. Jeremy Hill, Bengals

Like a smoother version of Eddie Lacy, Hill is an offense sustainer who’s made the most of his rookie-year opportunities, averaging 4.70 YPC with five touchdowns on 86 runs. Also far more versatile than he was billed to be coming out of LSU, Hill has secured 15 of his 18 targets and is a natural receiver out of the backfield. Giovani Bernard is under contract cheaply through 2016, but is best suited to a pass-game and change-up role. Hill may lack McKinnon and Hyde’s RB1 ceiling due to Bernard’s presence, but all signs point to Hill being Cincinnati’s best option in a workhorse role.

4. Bishop Sankey, Titans

Sankey was the subject of heated pre-season debate between the tape and metrics crowds. Sankey ably handled a lot of volume at the University of Washington before shredding the Combine. On paper, he looked like a future NFL star. When you watched him play, Sankey looked more like Vick Ballard. Sankey is a 22-year-old all-purpose back with plenty of untapped potential, but so far he’s been more efficient on limited workloads and disappointed when the Titans have put more on his plate. Tennessee’s anemic offense certainly hasn’t helped his cause. I think the jury is still out on Sankey going forward. I think it’s also very possible that the Titans will never see him as a true foundation back, instead pairing him with a better inside runner next season. Doing so would curb Sankey’s volume and TD upside.

5. Tre Mason, Rams

Mason entered the league extremely raw, especially from a passing-game standpoint. He still errs in pass protection, but has incrementally improved and now appears entrenched as the lead back in St. Louis’ frustrating RBBC. This could be a good time to buy on Mason in Dynasty trades. Abnormally young, Mason didn’t turn 21 until August and was never a good bet to light up the stat sheet during his rookie year. He’s been more productive than I expected and has lots of room for growth. A difficult run-defense schedule down the stretch could further depress Mason’s perceived Dynasty stock. I expect Mason to solidify himself as the Rams’ clear-lead back by 2015.

6. Isaiah Crowell, Browns

Crowell is Cleveland’s most talented runner, but ball-security woes and a three-way RBBC have prevented him from taking off as a rookie. Terrance West has been more reliable, and the Browns have more invested in Ben Tate. Crowell’s ceiling is still easily the highest in Cleveland’s running back corps. If Crowell can work out some of his kinks — and keep his nose clean off the field — his box-score production will take off sooner rather than later. Running back-friendly OC Kyle Shanahan isn’t going anywhere, and Tate will be easy to cut this offseason. Crowell’s running ability is clearly superior to West’s.

7. Charles Sims, Buccaneers

Sims has played in one NFL game after fracturing his ankle in training camp. When healthy, he is poor man’s version of Matt Forte with outstanding versatility and functional inside running skills. The first-year Bucs front office has already turned the page on Doug Martin, and Bobby Rainey is probably a long-term No. 2 back. Although Sims’ talent doesn’t jump off the page, he should get every opportunity to become a useful RB2 in PPR leagues by next season. One factor working against Sims is his age. He’s already 24 years old and probably won’t get a whole lot better.

8. Andre Williams, Giants

Williams flopped in his four-game audition as the Giants’ starter and has been more effective in a complementary role behind Rashad Jennings. Williams’ pass-game limitations had a noticeably negative impact on New York’s offense, forcing OC Ben McAdoo to play Peyton Hillis more during Jennings’ absence. Parked at 2.94 YPC on 114 totes, Williams has a maddening tendency to run into the backs of his own blockers, and his tape shows very little agility despite impressive Combine measurables. Jennings turns 30 in March and has a lengthy history of knee injuries, so Williams’ opportunity window remains open. But he must improve his vision and polish his all-around game. He’s been a fantasy dud so far.

9. Terrance West, Browns

A good-not-great talent, West has risen atop the Browns’ three-man committee by staying assignment sound and gaining blocked yards. He’s been solid in the passing game, both as a receiver and pass protector. West is already an every-week RB2/flex in fantasy leagues, but his forward-looking outlook is more murky. Isaiah Crowell is the Browns’ best long-term running back prospect.

10. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens

Taliaferro isn’t a flashy runner, but he weighs 230 pounds and is tough to tackle when the blocking gives him a head of steam. He reminds me of a smaller but more versatile version of LeGarrette Blount. Justin Forsett has been an excellent addition to the Ravens’ offense, but is 29 years old and no one’s idea of a long-term solution. My guess is Taliaferro will end up competing with another back for the Ravens’ starting job during 2015 training camp. Taliaferro could take off in OC Gary Kubiak‘s running back-friendly system if he learns to run with lower pad level. He packs power and can pass block.

11. Ka’Deem Carey, Bears

Has been efficient with his chances. Matt Forte turns 29 next month.

12. Damien Williams, Dolphins

UDFA has had some nice moments in spot duty.

13. Alfred Blue, Texans

Shonn Greene-type talent. Sell as soon as possible in Dynasty leagues.

14. Devonta Freeman, Falcons

Will probably always be a committee back.

15. Storm Johnson, Jaguars

Seventh-round pick beaten out decisively by Denard Robinson.

16. James White, Patriots

Another career RBBC type. Has struggled since the preseason.

17. Juwan Thompson, Broncos

Underwhelming UDFA has made some noise on fullback dives.

18. Tyler Gaffney, Patriots

A Jackie Battle type. Missing rookie year with a torn meniscus.

19. Henry Josey, Jaguars

Explosive scatback starred in August. On Jags practice squad.

20. Marion Grice, Cardinals

Good receiving back. Unfortunately, not much of a runner.

Wide Receivers

I like fantasy receivers who score touchdowns. I prefer them big and fast. The NFL is increasingly a man-coverage league, where pass catchers constantly have to deal with defensive backs in their “hip pocket.” I want wideouts who win 50:50 balls and in the red zone. I downgrade receivers I believe are one-trick-pony deep threats, and project as complementary pieces. I like volume. I also bank on forward-looking talent at receiver more than situation and perceived opportunity.

1. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Evans was the No. 1 receiver in my first set of Dynasty rankings, published shortly after May’s draft. He’s done nothing to temper my enthusiasm. Evans has plus speed for his size, is deceptively quick, and is already winning in the air. He’s scored five touchdowns over his last five games. Keep in mind Evans didn’t begin playing football until his senior year in high school, left college after his redshirt sophomore year, and is already dominating NFL defensive backs at age 21. The upside on this player is seemingly limitless. He’s a first-round pick in a Dynasty start-up draft. Turning 32 in January, don’t expect Vincent Jackson to return to the Bucs at his scheduled 2015 salary of $9.8 million.

2. Sammy Watkins, Bills

Quarterback woes have affected Watkins’ consistency, but I’d say he’s been about as good as anyone could have hoped. My comparison for Watkins coming out of Clemson was a cross between the best of Torrey Smith and the best of Pierre Garcon. I’m standing by that. His ceiling isn’t as high as Evans, but I expect Watkins to spend his career as a borderline fantasy WR1. Currently, the Bills don’t have a single pass catcher that can be viewed as a serious “threat” to Watkins’ target dominance.

3. Donte Moncrief, Colts

This ranking may seem aggressive because the NFL sample size is still small on Moncrief, but I think he’s worth aggressively pursuing in Dynasty trades while his perceived stock is still relatively low. He is a freakish NFL specimen who will likely blow up when the Colts’ coaching staff commits to making him a bigger part of the offense. That could happen as soon as this year’s stretch run, and no later than 2015. Both Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks‘ contracts are up after this year. Everything Moncrief has shown as a rookie suggests he has future superstar potential. He’s Andrew Luck‘s long-term “X” receiver with T.Y. Hilton at Z. You could make an argument that the ceiling on Moncrief is higher than it is on Watkins.

4. Jordan Matthews, Eagles

In terms of playing style, Matthews is a cross between Michael Crabtree and Marques Colston in his prime. His rookie-year progression has been smooth and steady, and Matthews has become a featured receiver since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback. Matthews is a route technician with better athleticism than you’d think, and necessary size to win contested catches, particularly in the red zone. He’s going to keep getting better. Jeremy Maclin is a free agent in 2015, and Riley Cooper‘s “five-year,” $22.5 million deal isn’t really a long-term commitment.

5. Allen Robinson, Jaguars

Robinson’s development was on a torrid pace before he unfortunately suffered a year-ending stress fracture in his foot earlier this month. I would have ranked him among the top-three receivers on this list if not for the injury. The bad news is that foot fractures are among the most worrisome injuries wide receivers can suffer. The good news is Robinson’s occurred early enough this season that he *should* be 100-percent recovered by 2015 training camp. Robinson is an unusually young prospect with some Demaryius Thomas to his game. He flashed big-time playmaking potential across ten rookie-year games, in addition to an ability to win at all three levels of the field.

6. Odell Beckham, Giants

Beckham is the talk of the NFL right now, and deservedly so, but the savviest Dynasty leaguers are unfazed by recency bias. I’m still a bit skeptical Beckham will develop into a true yearly WR1 in fantasy leagues. My pre- and post-draft comparison for him was a cross between Antonio Brown and Greg Jennings in his prime, and ultimately I expect Beckham to settle in as a mid-range to high-end fantasy WR2. Beckham has absurd quickness, catches everything, and is already one of the most difficult receivers in the league to cover. He’s also sub-6-foot and sub-200 pounds, and although there are outliers and exceptions, the odds are against players of that physical profile becoming prolific TD scorers.

7. Davante Adams, Packers

Adams hasn’t yet lit up the stat sheet, but he’s been solid on the field since passing Jarrett Boykin as Green Bay’s No. 3 receiver in September. Jordy Nelson is locked up long term, but will be 30 years old next season. Randall Cobb is an impending free agent, and the Packers still have nothing at tight end. I suspect Adams will finish this season fast and have a realistic shot to be Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 2 pass option by 2015.

8. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers

Benjamin has proven a year-one fantasy steal based on his August ADP, but there are reasons to believe this is a good time to sell him high. An abnormally old rookie, it’s fair to wonder if Benjamin has already maxed out from a skills standpoint. Per PFF’s Pete Damilatis, four of Benjamin’s seven touchdowns this year have occurred with the Panthers trailing by 24-plus points in the fourth quarter. He’s a garbage-time monster, racking up stats against soft coverage. Benjamin does not create much separation and I’d say his ability to win contested catches is inconsistent. His hands are below average and his routes are sloppy. In 2014, Benjamin has benefited from having very little competition for targets. Expect GM Dave Gettleman to prioritize upgrading Cam Newton‘s pass-catching corps this offseason. Carolina’s offense desperately needs more speed.

9. Martavis Bryant, Steelers

The insertion of Bryant into Pittsburgh’s offense four games ago added an entirely new dimension to Ben Roethlisberger‘s arsenal. Bryant has proceeded to produce at a prolific clip despite playing limited snaps and not being force fed a high volume of targets. His otherworldly efficiency is a very, very good sign. Bryant is still a fourth-round pick delivering in relatively small sample sizes. He wasn’t a stat machine at Clemson, and three of his four NFL games have coincided with three of the best regular season games of Roethlisberger’s career. It’s entirely possible that we’ll look back at this ranking in a year or two and see that Bryant was far too low. I’m taking a conservative stance on Bryant while acknowledging the upside here is immense. He checks a lot of boxes. I just want to see more.

10. John Brown, Cardinals

Brown drew T.Y. Hilton and Mike Wallace comparisons coming out of Pittsburg State, and Cardinals coach Bruce Arians most recently likened him to Marvin Harrison. In a normal receiver class, Brown would probably be a top-five wideout prospect. He runs 4.34 and is similarly “field fast,” demonstrating game-breaking ability on intermediate and vertical routes, and leading Arizona in touchdown catches (5). Larry Fitzgerald will turn 32 before next season and is owed $16 million in 2015. I’d give Brown a 75 percent chance of taking over as a starter in his sophomore year, lining up across from Michael Floyd.

11. Brandin Cooks, Saints

Keep in mind this is an insanely loaded wide receiver class, and Cooks’ rookie year has met expectations. I think his fantasy value is stronger in PPR than non-PPR. Based on his size and skill set, I do wonder if he will ever become a big-time touchdown scorer, or a wideout who makes many vertical plays. Cooks could get a big 2015 boost if the Saints cut ties with Marques Colston, who turns 32 in June and is owed $7 million in salary and bonuses. Eventually, I expect Cooks to become a 90-100 catch guy. He’s on pace for 86 this year.

12. Cody Latimer, Broncos

Latimer is another size-speed specimen whose perceived Dynasty stock may be depressed due to the fact that he’s barely played as a rookie. He’s a good buy-low target. Wes Welker won’t be back in 2015, and there is chatter that the Broncos might let contract-year TE Julius Thomas walk, as well.

13. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins

Landry will likely always be a possession receiver, but he is already a weekly WR3 in PPR, and has eased concerns about his measurable athleticism by excelling on kickoff and punt returns. I think the Hines Ward pre-draft comparisons were on point and Landry will always be a bankable starter in leagues that award a point per reception. He’d probably be a top-seven or eight wideout prospect in a normal receiver class.

14. Jeff Janis, Packers

Janis is currently buried on Green Bay’s wide receiver depth chart, but he profiles similarly to teammate Jordy Nelson and could become Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 3 receiver by 2015 if GM Ted Thompson lets Randall Cobb walk.

15. Marqise Lee, Jaguars

A first-year disappointment, Lee has now battled injuries in back-to-back football seasons. I still think he’s a good bet to make PPR noise in 2015, when Cecil Shorts figures to leave in free agency. Allen Robinson is the Jaguars’ “X” receiver of the future, with Lee as the “Z” and Allen Hurns in the slot.

16. Allen Hurns, Jaguars

Hurns played for Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch at the University of Miami, so it’s no surprise that he proved a quick study in Fisch’s offense. From a forward-thinking standpoint, Hurns is an inferior prospect to both Robinson and Lee. Hurns’ outlook could become gloomier if the Jags sign a high-priced tight end in free agency, and/or bring back Justin Blackmon. In Dynasty leagues, Hurns is a recommended sell high.

17. Jaron Brown, Cardinals

Sneaky Dynasty stash would become Arizona’s No. 3 wideout in 2015 if Larry Fitzgerald moves on.

18. Paul Richardson, Seahawks

No reason to believe he’ll ever become more than a situational deep threat and return specialist.

19. Albert Wilson, Chiefs

Deserves more snaps. Kansas City’s slot receiver of the future.

20. Josh Huff, Eagles

Chip Kelly‘s buddy from Oregon. Could become a factor if Jeremy Maclin leaves in 2015.

21. Devin Street, Cowboys

Dallas’ No. 4 receiver behind Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, and Cole Beasley.

22. Taylor Gabriel, Browns

Explosive slot receiver on currently run-dominated Browns team.

23. Robert Herron, Buccaneers

Bucs’ slot receiver prospect has been in and out of the lineup.

24. Michael Campanaro, Ravens

Has flashed Welkerian ability in limited doses. Currently injured.

25. Bruce Ellington, 49ers
26. Shaq Evans, Jets
27. Ryan Grant, Redskins
28. T.J. Jones, Lions
29. Kevin Norwood, Seahawks
30. Jared Abbrederis, Packers

Tight Ends

My criteria for tight ends are similar to wide receivers. I want big tight ends who can run. I do weigh situation into tight end Dynasty rookie outlooks more so than for wideouts, however, because some NFL coaches use tight ends in the passing game more than others.

1. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers

Seferian-Jenkins has struggled in the box score and on the field for much of 2014, but that is expected from a rookie tight end. He projects as a red-zone dominator once he reaches his peak and has flashed that kind of ability in his first NFL season. Vincent Jackson is likely in his final year with Tampa Bay, and his expected departure would free up targets for “ASJ.” One of the primary concerns for Seferian-Jenkins coming out of the University of Washington was a foot injury. He dealt with foot problems early in his rookie year, but seems to have put them behind him now. Long term, I think Seferian-Jenkins has top-five TE1 potential.

2. Eric Ebron, Lions

It’s been a slow, injury-riddled rookie year for Ebron, whose on-field performance has also underwhelmed. That means it’s a good time to put in a buy-low offer to Ebron’s Dynasty owner. Ebron has played so little and been used so sparingly that it’s difficult to say anything definitive about his 2014 play. We do know Ebron is a great athlete, and the Lions want to run a Saints-like offense that features the tight end up the seam. He will be a prime breakout candidate in 2015.

3. Jace Amaro, Jets

Amaro is a big possession tight end whose passing-game role has dwindled since the Jets acquired Percy Harvin. Still on pace for 55 receptions, Amaro’s rookie year has been relatively promising from a production standpoint. I’m not sure Amaro is physically talented enough to ever become a top-shelf, every-week TE1, but I wouldn’t rule it out, either. It would be nice if the Jets put together a functional offense for once. Amaro might then take off.

4. Crockett Gillmore, Ravens

Gillmore has spent most of this season blocking behind Owen Daniels. His athleticism is better than you might guess, and he’s a huge target in the middle of the field. Keep in mind Daniels is 32 years old and in a contract year. Dennis Pitta has fractured and dislocated the same hip twice, and may never play again. Quietly, Gillmore is in a really nice spot. Tight end-friendly Ravens OC Gary Kubiak isn’t going anywhere.

5. C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans

Fiedorowicz has spent his rookie season blocking in a year where the Texans could really use more passing-game contributions from a non-wide receiver position. He’s been targeted four times all season. Fiedorowicz is a TE4 in Dynasty.

6. Richard Rodgers, Packers

Rodgers has had a lot of opportunity, but has done little with it. I’m not a fan.

7. Troy Niklas, Cardinals

I liked Niklas in college, but he couldn’t have gone to a worse landing spot. Bruce Arians‘ usage of tight ends in the passing game has always been light.

Overall Dynasty Rookie Top 50

I value wide receivers more than any position in Dynasty. I think you should build around them. They have longer shelf lives and can be weekly plug-and-play starters for a decade when they hit. The same can’t be said for running backs, and this particular quarterback class doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Tight ends tend to be more dependent on offensive scheme.

1. Mike Evans, Buccaneers
2. Sammy Watkins, Bills
3. Donte Moncrief, Colts
4. Jordan Matthews, Eagles
5. Allen Robinson, Jaguars
6. Odell Beckham, Giants
7. Davante Adams, Packers
8. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers
9. Martavis Bryant, Steelers
10. John Brown, Cardinals

11. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers
12. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings
13. Brandin Cooks, Saints
14. Carlos Hyde, 49ers
15. Cody Latimer, Broncos
16. Eric Ebron, Lions
17. Jeremy Hill, Bengals
18. Bishop Sankey, Titans
19. Tre Mason, Rams
20. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins

21. Isaiah Crowell, Browns
22. Blake Bortles, Jaguars
24. Charles Sims, Buccaneers
25. Andre Williams, Giants
26. Terrance West, Browns
27. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots
28. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens
29. Derek Carr, Raiders
30. Johnny Manziel, Browns

31. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
32. Jeff Janis, Packers
33. Marqise Lee, Jaguars
34. Jace Amaro, Jets
35. Damien Williams, Dolphins
36. Alfred Blue, Texans
37. Ka’Deem Carey, Bears
38. Crockett Gillmore, Ravens
39. Jaron Brown, Cardinals
40. Allen Hurns, Jaguars

41. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
42. Paul Richardson, Seahawks
43. Storm Johnson, Jaguars
44. James White, Patriots
45. Richard Rodgers, Packers
46. Logan Thomas, Cardinals
47. Zach Mettenberger, Titans
48. Albert Wilson, Chiefs
49. Tom Savage, Texans
50. Josh Huff, Eagles