What to Watch, Week 12: Mississippi State is in a marquee matchup again
It’s difficult to claim one week of the college football season better than another, especially when it gets down to these late, important weeks, but Week 12 will have some serious implications on the College Football Playoff by the time the dust clears.
All eyes are on No. 1 Mississippi State and whether it can pull off yet another top 10 upset this season and knock Alabama out of the playoff running. Or will the Tide best the Bulldogs and throw the entire top four on its head?
As we’ve said all along, the College Football Playoff rankings are a fluid thing and will change every week. Depending on which way that Alabama-Mississippi State game goes, the SEC could go from having three teams in the playoff to just one, opening the door for a slew of other possibilities moving forward.
Here’s what to watch in Week 12:
Game of the week:
No. 1 Mississippi State at No. 5 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET
Alabama and Mississippi State are the only two remaining SEC teams that control their own fate when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and after this weekend’s contest, only one might be left in contention. The Bulldogs ascended to No. 1 in the rankings by virtue of a stretch that saw them beat three consecutive top 10 teams. However, two of those teams have since fallen out of the top 10 and one is barely hanging on. Mississippi State has struggled in its two SEC games against lesser opponents and the Bulldogs head into this contest playing less that stellar football. Alabama is in the complete opposite boat. It’s coming off an overtime win at LSU and while it’s offense has struggled at times this season, it is playing some of the best football of any team in the country. If Alabama quarterback Blake Sims can let loose with the ball, he’s going to find success against Mississippi State’s porous pass defense that allows 300 yards per game. Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott, who has been just OK in the past few games, needs to find that spark that helped his team during that top 10 stretch and use it in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Game to watch:
No. 16 Nebraska at No. 20 Wisconsin, 8 p.m. ET
While this game won’t decide the Big Ten West title, it will start to create clarity. Nebraska and Wisconsin are locked in a three-way tie atop the division with Minnesota, which plays Ohio State this weekend. This is also a chance to watch two of the best running backs in the game. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon has been the Badgers offensive leader by rushing for at least 122 yards in all but one game this season. Similarly, Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah has four 200-yard rushing games, but suffered a knee injury against Rutgers a couple weeks ago, barely played against Purdue last week and might be limited in this contest. If that’s the case, it’s going to be tough for the Huskers to pull this win out since they rely on Abdullah so much. To compound problems, the Huskers have lost four of their last five road games against ranked teams and are 3-8 during coach Bo Pelini’s tenure.
Also check out…
No. 3 Florida State at Miami, 8 p.m. ET
There’s been a lot of hype surrounding this game as the last possible trap for Florida State before it reaches the ACC title game. However, that might be a stretch. While Miami is playing well, it’s definitely made its hay against the lesser competition in the conference. With the exception of its win against Duke, it’s other two conference wins came against opponents with losing records. Still, quarterback Brad Kaaya has been impressive this season with 20 touchdowns and 14.5 yards per completion. His numbers are actually better than those of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston. Also, Miami running back Duke Johnson is one of the most dangerous players in the ACC and could have been a gamechanger during last year’s meeting between these two teams, but suffered a season-ending knee injury. Florida State has won 25 consecutive games and hasn’t lost to Miami since 2009. It is 42-3 in its past 45 games against the Hurricanes.
Don’t waste your time with:
No. 6 Arizona State at Oregon State, 10:45 p.m. ET
#Pac12AfterDark has been a treat all season with lots of close finishes, Hail Mary’s and other crazy stuff to entice even the East Coast college football fan to stay up late. However, this is not that game. Arizona State is in a unique position where if it wins out, it could play in the College Football Playoff, and it’s hard to believe that it would let a team that is 1-5 in conference play derail those plans. The Sun Devils should run away with this game early. Still, it is a #Pac12AfterDark game and stranger things have happened. If you must tune into this one, do so early because it should be over by halftime.
Keep an eye on:
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Gordon has been Mr. Reliable when it’s come to 100-yard games, but he hasn’t faced a rushing defense like Nebraska’s. The Huskers are allowing just 123.8 rushing yards per game. Granted, they haven’t yet faced a running back of Gordon’s skill level except when going against their own Ameer Abdullah in practice. The Badgers need Gordon, who is averaging 166.78 yards per game, to be at his best if they want to win this game and stay atop the Big Ten West. And Gordon needs to have a strong showing if he wants that coveted invitation to the Heisman ceremony.
Upset alert:
Rice (-21) at Marshall, 2:30 p.m. ET
It was slim pickings for upsets this week, but this one seemed as plausible as any. After starting the season 0-3, Rice has rattled off six consecutive wins to achieve bowl eligibility. Of course, the Owls have done that against some of the worst competition in its conference, but they have gained enough confidence to at least keep this game against the Thundering Herd mildly close. Marshall has run over its competition to-date, but perhaps the fact that the Herd is getting no national ranking love will start to wear on them and cause them to slip up. OK, who am I kidding? Marshall is superior to all the competition on its schedule and will probably win this game by 30.
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Graham Watson is the editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter! Follow @YahooDrSaturday
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