There’s one NFL result this season that is so strange, it doesn’t seem like it actually happened this year.
It wasn’t even that close, and the game was in Kansas City. The Titans out-gained the Chiefs 405-245 and led 23-3 early in the fourth quarter. These days, the Titans are fielding questions about whether they’d be better off tanking the rest of the season. They’ve lost seven of eight since that Kansas City win, and the only win was a tight home win over a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars team. The Titans are a bad team, too.
The Chiefs haven’t gotten a ton of attention since Week 1, but it’s clear they are very good. Maybe even better than last year, when a 9-0 start was fueled by an impossibly easy schedule. The Chiefs have been very good to bettors. According to OddsShark.com, the Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread since Week 1. The only loss was a 5-point defeat against San Francisco, when OddsShark’s closing number was San Francisco minus-4.5. The line dropped during the week, so plenty of people had Kansas City at plus-6 or plus-5.5. To them, the Chiefs are a perfect 8-0 against the spread since Week 1. That’s fantastic.
That leads us to one of the most interesting lines of the week: Seattle Seahawks as 2-point underdogs at Kansas City.
The Seahawks (4-5 against the spread) haven’t looked like the 2013 Seahawks very often this season. But the fourth quarter against the Giants last week was one of those times. They looked dominant. Maybe the champs are starting to hit their stride.
That’s what I’m going with this week. I’ll take the Seahawks, believing that their DNA as a championship team is going to show at some point. But I do think the Chiefs are a good team too, and if they win this one, they won’t be under the radar any more.
Here are the rest of the Week 11 picks:
Bills (+4.5) over Dolphins (picked Thursday): There’s a lot to like about the Bills. They need a quarterback though.
Bears (-3) over Vikings: If the Bears can’t show any pride in this one and play hard, after Sunday night’s embarrassment, then heads need to start rolling now.
Browns (-3) over Texans: I think the Browns are a pretty good team. And I’m not a big believer in Ryan Mallett.
Rams (+9.5) over Broncos: I don’t trust these Jeff Fisher Rams. I just can’t bring myself to lay this much with a road favorite.
Bengals (+7) over Saints: I assume the line crept up a bit because of how bad the Bengals looked last Thursday. The Saints didn’t look too hot last week either though.
49ers (-4) over Giants: I don’t think the 49ers are all that good this year. But, I know for sure the Giants aren’t good.
Buccaneers (+7.5) over Redskins: I can’t stomach taking Washington giving more than a touchdown to anyone.
Panthers (pick ‘em) over Falcons: I’m never going to feel good picking an NFC South team this season. But had to pick one in this game, unfortunately.
Chargers (-10) over Raiders: The Raiders had their chance to surprise the Chargers earlier this year, and almost did. Oakland lost that one late in the fourth quarter. San Diego won’t sleep on them this time.
Eagles (+6) over Packers: I think Philadelphia might win this one straight up.
Lions (+1.5) over Cardinals: If Drew Stanton plays well against a heck of a defense like this, maybe we can start to reevaluate where the Cardinals might go from here.
Colts (-3) over Patriots: Great game and a tough call. Just think the Colts’ home-field advantage is a little too much.
Titans (+5.5) over Steelers: I pick all the games, so I have to pick a side here. But if you really think you can predict this Steelers team, you’re fooling yourself.
Last week: 7-6
Season to date: 72-74
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