We’ve seen Disaster in Denverand the sequel is never better than the original.

In truth, the original last season wasn’t great, either.  Brian Shaw slowed the Nuggets’ trademark pace and clashed with his players early on and all the way until the trade deadline, when Kenneth Faried was kept by the team and given cornerstone status.   

What was remarkable looking back at the Nuggets’ record prior to that deadline was the fact they were either on a winning streak or losing streak with no middle ground.  A list of their streaks reads like this: A three-game losing streak, a seven-game winning streak and then a bad eight-game bender.  From there they rattled off five straight wins, four straight losses, two wins and then a five-game losing streak under the pressure of the deadline. 

They’d go on to lose six straight games after the deadline and finish at 36-46, with most observers pointing to injuries as the culprit.  Injuries certainly set them back, but all of the fissures and frustration of streaky basketball had already been entered into the record. 

Faried started showing big-time signs of life two days before the deadline, perhaps when he got an indication that his future in Denver was secure, and then rattled off 20 and 10s throughout the rest of the year.   

This season’s train wreck wasn’t hard to see.  Shaw certainly didn’t grade out higher than a ‘C’ last season and I wouldn’t argue with anybody that wanted to go lower, and Denver’s front office continued to stockpile redundant parts as if they were a playoff contender and not a rebuilder.  Randy Foye carried the Nuggets through a lot last year and he was rewarded with Arron Afflalo being brought in.  That deal looked great at the time, but perhaps there was a reason unproven Evan Fournier was all Orlando could draw back.  SG Gary Harris was drafted with a high pick and the addition of Nate Robinson was a random pickup the year before. 

Though Ty Lawson was shelved for most of the summer with his ankle issues, his presence necessarily guarantees that this group wasn’t going to be happy with their minutes or touches.

In fact, up and down the rotation you have guys that are bound to be unhappy.  Danilo Gallinari isn’t going to be near the player he will be next year, but neither he nor Wilson Chandler can be happy with a 48-minute bucket at small forward.  The big investment in JaVale McGee warrants court time, another high pick was used on center Jusuf Nurkic, and Timofey Mozgov had been trending upward in discussions between executives around the league. 

Of course, all roads go back to Faried and to a lesser extent the Nugs’ previous leader in Afflalo, as neither guy is getting the consistency that they desire from the coaching box.  Now that’s not to say that Shaw doesn’t have valid criticisms of his players, and Afflalo in particular looks like he has taken a big step back.  But Faried looked like a world beater playing for Team USA and also in the preseason, showing an improved jumper and handle as he trended toward being a nice complementary and sometimes go-to scorer. 

Criticisms or not, the indictment here is that these guys have rolled over on their coach.  Starting in Oklahoma City, and then in a back-to-back set against the Kings, and all the way into last night when they were booed off the court at home – the players aren’t playing hard and they don’t know what the pecking order is. 

The operable question in Denver is whether or not the locker room is salvageable.  I won’t hold my breath waiting for a vote of confidence out of the players.  But I will say this for fantasy owners – things are going to change and change soon.  Either these guys work it out or Shaw will be gone, and much like their streaks of last year there won’t be much middle ground.  Players like Faried, Mozgov, Chandler and Foye profile as winners when that happens.  Plan accordingly. 

For real-time NBA news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $125,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Starts at 8pm ET on Thursday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

BANGIN THE DRUM

 

I did a double-take when I saw Brandon Jennings’ preseason ranking (52/68, 8/9 cat) in my Bruski 150, because I wasn’t overly excited about him and thought I did a good job of tamping expectations.  But that’s where the analysis spit him out and I found myself on the other end of some choice words from some folks when he tripped and fell at the starting line.  It didn’t feel especially great to issue the advice to hold on, as I put it to one follower ‘it could look incredibly dumb in two weeks if you drop him now.” 

Well, after 32 points on 11-of-19 shooting with three treys, three boards, 10 assists and two steals in a duel against John Wall he’s returning top 55-65 value (8/9 cat) and it still feels uneasy but I’ll take it.  The bigger story, though, is Andre Drummond and his struggles with just about everything these days.  After a year of mostly gushing from the Detroit press, they weren’t afraid to call it how it is after last night’s two-point, five-rebound effort including two blocks.  They pointed out how he has been getting called for moving screens a lot so far, a point of emphasis for refs this year, and this smells like garden variety frustration that comes from having a new coach and system in place. 

The great Zach Lowe wrote about it today and I agree – Stan Van Gundy is putting a lot on Drummond’s plate in terms of post touches and it’s overloading the youngster.  Lowe also intimates that SVG’s defense is more prone to sitting back rather than forcing turnovers, and that’s something to watch out for if Drummond’s defensive numbers stay down.   But if you’re looking for answers on that 41.7 percent field goal percentage, it’s because he’s trying to develop a post game rather than being a dunker-only.  This can only be good for him over the long haul, even if it hurts him during the first half of this year.  Either way, this is a prototypical buy low moment and one of the rare chances to seriously move the needle.

 

JOHNNY BE REALLY GOOD

 

The Wizards gutted out a win over the Pistons last night and moved to 6-2 on the year, behind perhaps the quietest fantasy superstar in John Wall, who went for 27 and 11 with three steals, one block and a 13-of-16 mark from the foul line. He’s the No. 8 and No. 21 player in 8- and 9-cat leagues, respectively.  Marcin Gortat pitched in with 14 and 13 to go with one steal and two blocks as he hovers around preseason expectations, as well.

Nene didn’t take long to get dinged up as he suffered a right shoulder injury and is set to be evaluated at some point today.  Kris Humphries, who is enjoying a 24-hour run as the butt of low-hanging jokes once again, is getting great marks from the locals and is worth a short-term look after 12 points, nine boards and two blocks in 25 minutes last night. 

Rasual Butler surprised with 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting in 27 minutes last night and some beat writers think he’ll cut into Otto Porter’s minutes.  That is probably the final nail in the coffin for Porter’s standard league owners, and Butler needs to show much more before he can be taken seriously in most leagues.  Butler also cut into Garrett Temple’s workload a bit, as Temple’s slide continued on a six-point, three-rebound night including one assist, two steals and no threes in 22 minutes.  Temple is still a mid-round value on the year in 32 mpg, so I’m not giving up for any low-end free agents until things get worse.

 

SUBPLOTTING

 

The Jazz traveled to Atlanta for a visit with old pals Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver, and Quin Snyder returned to where he held an assistant’s clipboard last season.  Factor in Derrick Favors as a torch-bearer after Millsap left for the Hawks, and there were a bunch of minor subplots.  In fact, Kyle Korver hit the game-deciding three on a play that he used to work on with Snyder last year. 

Utah saw pretty balanced production from the group with the exception of Gordon Hayward (11 points, 5-of-16 FGs, seven rebounds, two steals, one three), who was slowed down by Thabo Sefolosha.  Favors did his part to play up to Millsap’s level, scoring 20 points on 9-of-11 shooting with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.  He’s cruising at a top-50 level to start the year.

Enes Kanter had a real interesting night with two threes, one steal and one block to go with 16 points and five rebounds.  If he could ever make the defensive stats a regular thing he’d have some serious upside, but he’s still just a low-end value in 12-team leagues until that happens.  Alec Burks got hot for 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting, two rebounds, three assists, one steal and one triple.  The book on him is the same as it has always been – not enough peripheral stats to justify all the preseason hype.  He’s still a good bet to return late-round production and could surprise with a year-long rank by simply staying healthy. 

Trey Burke might have tricked me into jumping the gun on what I would have normally done, which is dismiss him because of the same issues with peripherals that some of his teammates have.  The bumpy ride took a turn for the better as he posted 11 points with three rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and a triple, but still hit just 5-of-15 shots to remind owners there are still problems.  He’s still playing below the cut line in 12-team leagues but owners will want to remember that it’s a long season and young players improve.  That’s all I got. 

Rudy Gobert’s value has dipped a bit as he returns just 14-16 team value in his 15.6 mpg, bolstered by 1.4 blocks per game and favorable percentages.  He’s still an excellent stash for the likelihood his minutes increase as the year goes on, but at least for now he has lost the benefit of being startable in a pinch. 

THE KYLE HIGH CLUB

 

I was trying to figure out which Atlanta big man to use in FanDuel last night, figuring one of them would draw Enes Kanter, and my indecision led me away from both of them. 

I should have gone with the revenge-game theory and started Millsap, who exploded for 30 points on 13-of-23 shooting with four threes, 17 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.  Al Horford, on the other hand, probably killed some folks with just eight points, four rebounds and one block.  As we sit in Week 3 both are returning top 30-60 value and it’s a buy low moment for Horford, with both guys expected to climb the ranks. 

As mentioned, Kyle Korver hit the game-deciding three and finished with 17 points, four threes, 10 boards and six assists as a top 5-10 value (8/9 cat) on the year.  You have to sell that high for any well-situated top-40 play.  His minutes (36.6 mpg) haven’t taken a dip at all, and of course they’re going to come down, but the 27-31 minutes I had him slotted with before draft day appears to be a major misstep. 

We’ve seen Disaster in Denverand the sequel is never better than the original.

In truth, the original last season wasn’t great, either.  Brian Shaw slowed the Nuggets’ trademark pace and clashed with his players early on and all the way until the trade deadline, when Kenneth Faried was kept by the team and given cornerstone status.   

What was remarkable looking back at the Nuggets’ record prior to that deadline was the fact they were either on a winning streak or losing streak with no middle ground.  A list of their streaks reads like this: A three-game losing streak, a seven-game winning streak and then a bad eight-game bender.  From there they rattled off five straight wins, four straight losses, two wins and then a five-game losing streak under the pressure of the deadline. 

They’d go on to lose six straight games after the deadline and finish at 36-46, with most observers pointing to injuries as the culprit.  Injuries certainly set them back, but all of the fissures and frustration of streaky basketball had already been entered into the record. 

Faried started showing big-time signs of life two days before the deadline, perhaps when he got an indication that his future in Denver was secure, and then rattled off 20 and 10s throughout the rest of the year.   

This season’s train wreck wasn’t hard to see.  Shaw certainly didn’t grade out higher than a ‘C’ last season and I wouldn’t argue with anybody that wanted to go lower, and Denver’s front office continued to stockpile redundant parts as if they were a playoff contender and not a rebuilder.  Randy Foye carried the Nuggets through a lot last year and he was rewarded with Arron Afflalo being brought in.  That deal looked great at the time, but perhaps there was a reason unproven Evan Fournier was all Orlando could draw back.  SG Gary Harris was drafted with a high pick and the addition of Nate Robinson was a random pickup the year before. 

Though Ty Lawson was shelved for most of the summer with his ankle issues, his presence necessarily guarantees that this group wasn’t going to be happy with their minutes or touches.

In fact, up and down the rotation you have guys that are bound to be unhappy.  Danilo Gallinari isn’t going to be near the player he will be next year, but neither he nor Wilson Chandler can be happy with a 48-minute bucket at small forward.  The big investment in JaVale McGee warrants court time, another high pick was used on center Jusuf Nurkic, and Timofey Mozgov had been trending upward in discussions between executives around the league. 

Of course, all roads go back to Faried and to a lesser extent the Nugs’ previous leader in Afflalo, as neither guy is getting the consistency that they desire from the coaching box.  Now that’s not to say that Shaw doesn’t have valid criticisms of his players, and Afflalo in particular looks like he has taken a big step back.  But Faried looked like a world beater playing for Team USA and also in the preseason, showing an improved jumper and handle as he trended toward being a nice complementary and sometimes go-to scorer. 

Criticisms or not, the indictment here is that these guys have rolled over on their coach.  Starting in Oklahoma City, and then in a back-to-back set against the Kings, and all the way into last night when they were booed off the court at home – the players aren’t playing hard and they don’t know what the pecking order is. 

The operable question in Denver is whether or not the locker room is salvageable.  I won’t hold my breath waiting for a vote of confidence out of the players.  But I will say this for fantasy owners – things are going to change and change soon.  Either these guys work it out or Shaw will be gone, and much like their streaks of last year there won’t be much middle ground.  Players like Faried, Mozgov, Chandler and Foye profile as winners when that happens.  Plan accordingly. 

For real-time NBA news and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.

Editor’s Note: Rotoworld’s partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $125,000 Fantasy Basketball league for Thursday’s NBA games. It’s $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Starts at 8pm ET on Thursday. Here’s the FanDuel link.

BANGIN THE DRUM

 

I did a double-take when I saw Brandon Jennings’ preseason ranking (52/68, 8/9 cat) in my Bruski 150, because I wasn’t overly excited about him and thought I did a good job of tamping expectations.  But that’s where the analysis spit him out and I found myself on the other end of some choice words from some folks when he tripped and fell at the starting line.  It didn’t feel especially great to issue the advice to hold on, as I put it to one follower ‘it could look incredibly dumb in two weeks if you drop him now.” 

Well, after 32 points on 11-of-19 shooting with three treys, three boards, 10 assists and two steals in a duel against John Wall he’s returning top 55-65 value (8/9 cat) and it still feels uneasy but I’ll take it.  The bigger story, though, is Andre Drummond and his struggles with just about everything these days.  After a year of mostly gushing from the Detroit press, they weren’t afraid to call it how it is after last night’s two-point, five-rebound effort including two blocks.  They pointed out how he has been getting called for moving screens a lot so far, a point of emphasis for refs this year, and this smells like garden variety frustration that comes from having a new coach and system in place. 

The great Zach Lowe wrote about it today and I agree – Stan Van Gundy is putting a lot on Drummond’s plate in terms of post touches and it’s overloading the youngster.  Lowe also intimates that SVG’s defense is more prone to sitting back rather than forcing turnovers, and that’s something to watch out for if Drummond’s defensive numbers stay down.   But if you’re looking for answers on that 41.7 percent field goal percentage, it’s because he’s trying to develop a post game rather than being a dunker-only.  This can only be good for him over the long haul, even if it hurts him during the first half of this year.  Either way, this is a prototypical buy low moment and one of the rare chances to seriously move the needle.

 

JOHNNY BE REALLY GOOD

 

The Wizards gutted out a win over the Pistons last night and moved to 6-2 on the year, behind perhaps the quietest fantasy superstar in John Wall, who went for 27 and 11 with three steals, one block and a 13-of-16 mark from the foul line. He’s the No. 8 and No. 21 player in 8- and 9-cat leagues, respectively.  Marcin Gortat pitched in with 14 and 13 to go with one steal and two blocks as he hovers around preseason expectations, as well.

Nene didn’t take long to get dinged up as he suffered a right shoulder injury and is set to be evaluated at some point today.  Kris Humphries, who is enjoying a 24-hour run as the butt of low-hanging jokes once again, is getting great marks from the locals and is worth a short-term look after 12 points, nine boards and two blocks in 25 minutes last night. 

Rasual Butler surprised with 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting in 27 minutes last night and some beat writers think he’ll cut into Otto Porter’s minutes.  That is probably the final nail in the coffin for Porter’s standard league owners, and Butler needs to show much more before he can be taken seriously in most leagues.  Butler also cut into Garrett Temple’s workload a bit, as Temple’s slide continued on a six-point, three-rebound night including one assist, two steals and no threes in 22 minutes.  Temple is still a mid-round value on the year in 32 mpg, so I’m not giving up for any low-end free agents until things get worse.

 

SUBPLOTTING

 

The Jazz traveled to Atlanta for a visit with old pals Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver, and Quin Snyder returned to where he held an assistant’s clipboard last season.  Factor in Derrick Favors as a torch-bearer after Millsap left for the Hawks, and there were a bunch of minor subplots.  In fact, Kyle Korver hit the game-deciding three on a play that he used to work on with Snyder last year. 

Utah saw pretty balanced production from the group with the exception of Gordon Hayward (11 points, 5-of-16 FGs, seven rebounds, two steals, one three), who was slowed down by Thabo Sefolosha.  Favors did his part to play up to Millsap’s level, scoring 20 points on 9-of-11 shooting with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.  He’s cruising at a top-50 level to start the year.

Enes Kanter had a real interesting night with two threes, one steal and one block to go with 16 points and five rebounds.  If he could ever make the defensive stats a regular thing he’d have some serious upside, but he’s still just a low-end value in 12-team leagues until that happens.  Alec Burks got hot for 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting, two rebounds, three assists, one steal and one triple.  The book on him is the same as it has always been – not enough peripheral stats to justify all the preseason hype.  He’s still a good bet to return late-round production and could surprise with a year-long rank by simply staying healthy. 

Trey Burke might have tricked me into jumping the gun on what I would have normally done, which is dismiss him because of the same issues with peripherals that some of his teammates have.  The bumpy ride took a turn for the better as he posted 11 points with three rebounds, 11 assists, three steals and a triple, but still hit just 5-of-15 shots to remind owners there are still problems.  He’s still playing below the cut line in 12-team leagues but owners will want to remember that it’s a long season and young players improve.  That’s all I got. 

Rudy Gobert’s value has dipped a bit as he returns just 14-16 team value in his 15.6 mpg, bolstered by 1.4 blocks per game and favorable percentages.  He’s still an excellent stash for the likelihood his minutes increase as the year goes on, but at least for now he has lost the benefit of being startable in a pinch. 

THE KYLE HIGH CLUB

 

I was trying to figure out which Atlanta big man to use in FanDuel last night, figuring one of them would draw Enes Kanter, and my indecision led me away from both of them. 

I should have gone with the revenge-game theory and started Millsap, who exploded for 30 points on 13-of-23 shooting with four threes, 17 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks.  Al Horford, on the other hand, probably killed some folks with just eight points, four rebounds and one block.  As we sit in Week 3 both are returning top 30-60 value and it’s a buy low moment for Horford, with both guys expected to climb the ranks. 

As mentioned, Kyle Korver hit the game-deciding three and finished with 17 points, four threes, 10 boards and six assists as a top 5-10 value (8/9 cat) on the year.  You have to sell that high for any well-situated top-40 play.  His minutes (36.6 mpg) haven’t taken a dip at all, and of course they’re going to come down, but the 27-31 minutes I had him slotted with before draft day appears to be a major misstep. 

PRAISE SCOTT BROOKS (RESPONSIBLY)

 

For a team whose box score you could almost write in before the game started, the Thunder are a fascinating watch and I’m going to both praise Scott Brooks and also warn about the impending overreaction set to occur when these guys go 9-13 over a 24-game span before the cavalry returns (no update on you know who and you know who).  In that span, which includes a 2-1 start, OKC will play just four games against teams that made the playoffs last year. 

I do like what Brooks is doing by alternating zone and man defense, primarily because it gives his tired squad a breather and acts as a gimmicky change-up.  But not even narrowing the focus to Brooks the fawning in situations like this is almost guaranteed, as if folks have never seen an injured team fielding a skeleton unit of backups playing like their pants are on fire.  The last coach that happened to was … wait for it … in Denver. 

Of course, none of this matters in relation to years of terrible playoff decision-making, but I’m putting everybody on notice that I’m keeping an open mind to these Thunder and their coach.  People learn, they improve, and in this case I am intrigued by the perfect storm that is brewing allowing an intriguing set of backups to get key minutes and experience.  I also like a certain shooting guard from Georgia Tech. 

Nevertheless, the Big Two couldn’t have picked a better time to get injured and it’s going to be funny watching the top-4 seeds in the West jockeying to avoid the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.    

Reggie Jackson continued his assault on the box score with 28 points in last night’s win over the Celtics, but the fantasy story of the night belonged to Anthony Morrow, who torched all sorts of folks including Rajon Rondo to the tune of 28 points, himself.  I said in yesterday’s Dose that I thought he’d play in the 20-25 minute range and I didn’t expect him to get unleashed like this.  Beat writer Anthony Slater intimated a similar minute range in his post-game report, but living in the now Morrow is a must-own player after last night.  He could easily rip off mid-round value in the next week or two and settle into a late-round floor as guys get back. 

Some other odds and ends from Slater’s report included the belief that Andre Roberson would continue to start when he returns and that Jeremy Lamb will be the odd man out when Roberson and Perry Jones return.  No surprises there. 

 

GREEN MACHINE

 

The Celtics lost last night’s game against the Thunder because they couldn’t get stops and they lost the battle at the foul line, but in general there were some good fantasy outputs.  Rajon Rondo just missed a triple-double with 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (including four threes) with nine rebounds, 12 assists and two steals.  Yowza.  He’s still crushing his ADP. 

Kelly Olynyk got things moving in the right direction with 14 points, four assists, one steal, two blocks and one three but just two rebounds.  He’s in the running for most surprising early round value and an easy must-own player.  The chapter in which Jeff Green returns to Earth is well underway after he hit just 4-of-14 shots for 14 points, five rebounds, a three and that’s pretty much it.  I had him as a top-100 guy in the Bruski 150 and I don’t want to vary too much off of that path, even if I like the way he’s shooting the three with more confidence. 

Jared Sullinger had a solid outing with 14 points, 11 rebounds and six assists but did not land a peripheral stat.  I’ve been pretty down on him and he’s suddenly posting early-to-mid round value (9/8 cat), but a quick review of his numbers shows that he’s either poised to take a big step forward shooting and taking care of the ball or in for a big regression the wrong way.  Still, he got my attention with this week’s surge. 

REVENGE OF HIBBERT

 

The Pacers limped back into Miami for a game that undoubtedly looked a lot better to executives a few months ago.  Of course, that meant it was high time for the Heat to fall asleep and the Pacers to come alive behind Roy Hibbert and his 16 points, 15 rebounds and three blocks.  I’ve been as hard on Hibbert as anybody but it sure does seem like there is a perfect storm brewing for him as one of the few Pacers that can create a mismatch.  Returning top-25 value right now he is also playing way over his head in multiple categories, so owners should be able to get a tidy return on a sell-high deal. 

Donald Sloan continued to fill the void in the backcourt with 15 points, six boards, three assists, three treys and a steal, but his poor fantasy peripherals have him stuck in a late-round value with no relief in sight.  Chris Copeland has the same type of problem but he turned in a solid night, with 17 points on 7-of-17 shooting, five rebounds, three triples, one steal, one block and three turnovers.  Despite logging a whopping 32 mpg this year, he is sitting right on the cut-line in 12-team, 8-cat leagues and he’s unusable in most standard 9-cat leagues unless you’re punting multiple deficient categories. 

You can add Solomon Hill (nine points, 1-of-12 FGs, 10 boards, one steal, one three, 42 minutes) to the group while you’re at it.  Sloan is the only must-own player here and it’s worth noting that C.J. Miles and Rodney Stuckey could both be back on Friday. 

 

LIKE A BOSH?

 

The Heat got outrebounded by the Pacers 53-28 and that was the rub in their loss.  Of course, getting just nine points and two rebounds out of Chris Bosh didn’t help, nor did a 2-of-10 shooting night out of Luol Deng (five points, seven rebounds, two steals, one block, one three).  The fact they only lost by six points was a minor miracle, but then again, the Pacers need a lot to go right to win these days. 

Dwyane Wade tweaked a hamstring last night but stayed in the game, and after 20 points on 8-of-16 shooting with a full stat line it certainly doesn’t seem like an issue.  As usual, stay alert. 

The point guard situation in Miami continues to be a sore spot for fantasy owners.  Norris Cole (nine points, 4-of-7 FGs, four rebounds, seven assists, one block, 27 minutes) had a serviceable night but combo guard Mario Chalmers continued to fade into the background, scoring just seven points on 3-of-8 shooting with two rebounds, one assist and two steals in 27 minutes. 

Shabazz Napier played 14 minutes but did manage three points, three boards and four assists, and though Chalmers is playing below the cut line in standard leagues he’s still the guy I’ll hang my hat on out of the trio.  Erik Spoelstra sounds committed to this rotation, though, and Chalmers is only ahead of the other two because he at least has a history of carrying value.  Building an argument to stash Chalmers, who at one point had a mid-round upside, is getting harder by the game.   

Josh McRoberts (23 minutes, four points, one rebound, two steals) is coming along painfully slow, but got a lot of praise from Spoelstra last night and using some fairly flawed logic here this is a situation where if you own him you’ve already made it this far.  Assuming he doesn’t suffer a setback, the expected minutes should lead to a late-round floor at a minimum, and in 9-cat leagues he gets a one-round bump up in my projections. 

 

EVAN ALMIGHTY

 

I picked the Magic to make the playoffs and a date with the Knicks helped nudge the ball forward there, as they scratched and clawed their way to a win behind Evan Fournier’s career-high 28 points.  He hit 8-of-14 shots (2-of-4 3PTs, 10-of-14 FTs) with four steals in 37 minutes to push himself up to a top-90 value this year.  As I covered in the Dose, he’s a guy owners will want to walk all the way to the edge of the cliff as Victor Oladipo (face) returns.

It certainly doesn’t hurt that Elfrid Payton (23 minutes, zero points, eight assists) is hurting the team on offense because of his toothless jumper.  If Payton doesn’t turn it around fast, Fournier could get enough backup point guard minutes to keep him on rosters beyond Oladipo’s return. 

Tobias Harris (12 points, five boards, one three, 4-of-11 FGs) is on almost all of my rosters and it would seem on the surface that I’m winning big there.  He’s in a contract year and his agent is working to create a market for him this summer with various media leaks about interest in New York and vice-versa.  So far it hasn’t impacted his play in an overtly negative way, but his shot selection could end up becoming an issue and more accurately right now, his ability to make the looks he’s capable of getting is the issue.  Sporting a 42.9 percent mark from the field and 3.0 turnovers per game, he’s sitting at just a top 75-115 value despite the solid numbers elsewhere.  If he can get the efficiency figured out and hang onto most of the usage he has top-50 upside. 

 

LAYIN THE PIPE

 

Read into Kobe Bryant rumors all you want, the Knicks are more than likely bound to their current predicament for at least the near future and probably much longer.  Last night they added a dose of J.R. Smith criticism after he took a less-than-desirable shot at the buzzer instead of letting Carmelo Anthony have a go at it.  Neither Melo nor Derek Fisher was happy about it, but stopped short of criticizing it outright. 

Anthony kept pushing back up the rankings with 27 points on 10-of-17 shooting, two threes, five boards, one steal, one block and a 5-of-6 mark from the line.  Sunk by 41 percent shooting on the year and a late-round return so far, this is as good as it gets in a buy low moment.  I did have Melo lower than many because a bad offense can do this to the best of scorers, but nowhere near low enough that owners shouldn’t be falling all over themselves to get a crack at him. 

There were signs of life from Samuel Dalembert, who put together seven rebounds, four assists and five blocks in 27 minutes.  Now let’s see him do it again. And again.  Shane Larkin is still a non-factor after a 17-minute start with just nine points and two assists.  Iman Shumpert, on the other hand, is right where owners want him to be after logging 26 minutes with 10 points, eight rebounds and three assists before fouling out.  No, the line isn’t paying the bills, but recent pickups that can display they have a workable floor are passing a significant test. 

 

KOBE AND SWAGGY TAKE NEWPORT BEACH

 

I agree that it’s entertaining watching Kobe Bryant chuck up shots, but it’s a terrible strategy and completely unimaginative.  Even if Kobe could theoretically up his efficiency at this usage, the rest of the team is a stagnant mess.  As pointed out by Bourbon Street Shots after the Lakers’ loss to the Pelicans, Kobe and Jeremy Lin ran pick-and-roll eight times with Kobe as the screener.  Each time Lin would pitch the ball back to Kobe at 21 feet so he could hold the ball and wait for a clear-out. 

Yes, Kobe had five assists and while we’re at it he hit 10-of-28 shots for 33 points, four rebounds, five threes, a steal and an 8-of-8 mark from the line.  But the Lakers need Jeremy Lin and Ed Davis to bend the defense, even if they’re inconsistent in doing so, because teams are basically running an unofficial Box-and-1 against Kobe and are totally fine with him getting his. 

Because nobody else is getting theirs. 

Carlos Boozer scored 16 points with six rebounds, two assists and some truly embarrassing defense but what else is new.  He’s clinging to the bottom of the top-150 and owners can do much, much better.  Wes Johnson (10 points, three boards, two blocks, one three, 33 minutes) is below the cut line in 12-team, 8-cat leagues, but he’s a solid late-round value in 9-cat leagues with nowhere to go but up. 

Jordan Hill did not have a steal or block but managed 10 points and eight boards in a terrible matchup against Anthony Davis and Omer Asik.  He’s still humming at a mid-round value but I’d have him permanently on my trading block as he pushes into the red at 30 mpg. 

Jeremy Lin is still playing well below my lofty expectations (B150: 45/63, 8/9 cat) but last night was another step in the right direction, as he scored 15 points with four rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block.  So much of his value is tied up in the lack of depth on the Lakers’ roster so I’m behind a buy low play, especially when you consider how many injury risks there are on this squad. 

Ed Davis had a nice game off the bench and put up eight points, 11 boards, two blocks and hit both of his throws.  A top 75-100 value in 24 mpg already, as I said in the Dose the head coach is going to run out of excuses to keep this guy off the floor.  I’m calling him a must-own player for his current production and his upside. 

Burying the lede here, Nick Young (thumb) sounds like he could play next week.  I had him around No. 135 in the B150 and that assumed he played 70 games this season.  The games played seem right and I was pretty conservative with Young’s projections, but there was a little piece of me that wanted to project Young in a supreme No. 2 role with the Lakers begging him to bring the offense.  As I said in the Dose, I think there is enough upside here that somebody in your league should own the guy and maybe you. 

 

LET’S GET THIS GUY A BETTER NICKNAME PEOPLE

 

While I’d love to spend time on Anthony Davis (25 points, 12 boards, 12-of-16 FGs, one steal, six blocks) overtaking Stephen Curry for the top spot in both 8- and 9-cat leagues, there’s other fun stuff going on in New Orleans besides the Unibromber.  For starters, Monty Williams is running a tight rotation.  Bravo.  The jury is still out on whether or not he can push the right buttons after years of questionable calls and a standoffish nature with his teams, but I’m open to a turnaround. 

The most pleasant surprise for the Pellies has been the 3-point shooting of Tyreke Evans, a career 27.6 percent shooter from distance who has hit half of his attempts while making 1.6 per game.  He has also pushed Eric Gordon (seven points, five assists) off the ball, and though it hasn’t translated to big value (top 80-110, 8/9 cat) he has a lot of upward mobility when he improves his current 38.3 percent field goal shooting and 68.2 percent mark from the line. 

Jrue Holiday continued a quiet assault on his ADP with 17 points, five assists, one steal, one block and one three.  You wouldn’t know it by the lack of headlines but he’s a second-to-third round value right now and none of his numbers are out of place.  It stands to reason that life can be easier when playing for a talented and well-balanced squad.    

 

EARLY TOFURKEY DAY

 

The Blazers were the most recent team to feast on the Nuggets, which meant that Damian Lillard got to lay his foot down hard on the gas pedal en route to 27 points (10-of-16 FGs) with five threes, five boards, nine assists and two steals.  God I hope you didn’t panic.  LaMarcus Aldridge took a huge swipe at my now perennially low Bruski 150 ranking (36/26), but it wasn’t the 12 points and seven boards that did it – it was the six blocks.  He’s now right in line with those rankings and it’s a testament to what a block party can do to increase morale. 

If you’re looking for the Nicolas Batum (knee) beneficiary look no further than Steve Blake (six points, two threes, five boards, five assists, 28 minutes), who fits perfectly in Batum’s 3-point/passing role.  I don’t know if he can provide late-round value in a spot-start but he certainly gives the desperate owner a puncher’s chance. 

 

SHARING IS CARING

 

Joe Johnson took to criticizing his teammates for selfish play after their last loss, and it appeared to send the right message as the Nets took a commanding early lead against the Suns.  But the offense disintegrated and there was Iso-Joe, trying to do everything on his own while the ship slowly sank. 

The good news is that Johnson has been on a nice run, producing top-48 value with averages of 20.0 points, 2.0 threes, 5.7 boards and 3.7 assists while hitting 47.3 percent of his shots.  The bad news is that there is no way he is going to continue hitting two percentage points better than last year while attempting three more shots per contest.  In fact, the only number that isn’t higher than it realistically should be is his 76.9 percent foul shooting.  A safer player in terms of role, there should be durability concerns as he approaches 1,000 games played and 36.3 mpg over that span.  It’s a classic sell-high position. 

Brook Lopez continued to struggle with just three rebounds to go with 16 points, two steals and one block in 26 minutes.  He continues to get yanked in the fourth quarter and his confidence is clearly not high as he tries to get back on track, which he is all-but certain to do assuming he stays healthy.  Kevin Garnett double-doubled with 12 points and 10 boards but no defensive stats, and he still profiles as a 14-team stopgap.  The same thing can be said for Bojan  Bogdanovic (14 points, two threes, one steal, 33 minutes), who offers similar value in a more durable package. 

The Mason Plumlee disappearance is pretty jarring and it’s safe to say that Coach K has a different evaluation than Lionel Hollins right now.  The fantasy metrics are there for Plumlee, so be ready to pounce if he gets back into the mix.  Deron Williams (14 points, four rebounds, five assists, two threes, one steal) is returning top 25-30 value and though I wasn’t able to draft him it’s nice to know my higher expectations are being met.  The ankle surgery worked. 

 

GOING GREEN

 

I covered Gerald Green in the Dose and after his 28-point night including three treys, 11-of-12 makes from the foul line and a full stat line by his standards, I think owners have all of the data they need to support a pickup in 12-team formats.  If you don’t like his upside being held in check feel free to pass on what I project to be late-round value, but consider that Eric Bledsoe is an injury risk and Green has played well most of this year.  He and Isaiah Thomas (21 points, 23 minutes) are not just contributing to wins, but they’re leading the Suns to them. 

P.J. Tucker (six points, three boards, one steal, 24 minutes) had a down night but is still returning top-100 value in his five games, and burying a big storyline the starting backcourt is lost in fantasy leagues.  Both Goran Dragic (18 points, three treys, three rebounds, six assists) and Bledsoe (11 points, four rebounds, three assists, one steal, seven turnovers) are hanging around the bottom of the top-100, alternating big nights with duds and in Bledsoe’s case he has an extreme turnover issue right now.  I felt like I downgraded them this season enough to have folks avoid drafting them, but with the bench outplaying them on many nights it’s fair to ask how low can they go. 

 

¡VIVA MEXICO!

 

The NBA went for Round 2 on its Mexico City game, pitting the surging Rockets against the Wolves sans Ricky Rubio, and unlike last year the game actually occurred.  Dwight Howard (illness) rolled into an easy 22 and 10 night with four blocks, and James Harden shook off an ankle tweak to finish with 23 points, four rebounds, 10 assists and three steals.  The beard is still rocking top 3-4 value despite hitting just 38.7 percent of his shots. 

Trevor Ariza also continued his torrid pace with 19 points on 7-of-12 shooting with three treys, five boards and two steals, and as a top-15 play with plenty of injury history owners have to be thinking about selling high here.  Donatas Motiejunas picked up the start for injured Terrence Jones (leg), scoring eight points with seven rebounds, four assists, one steal and two blocks, but he’s still a risk as a spot-start and has no long-term value unless Jones’ situation somehow turns bad.  Isaiah Canaan flamed out with just five points, two rebounds and one assist in 26 minutes, which helps to take the little man out of the heads of Patrick Beverley’s owners. 

 

HE’S GOT THE MOVES LIKE JAGGER

 

The ankle injury to Ricky Rubio certainly spawned interest in fantasy circles because both beneficiaries, Zach LaVine and Mo Williams, carry some intrigue but not enough to make owners dive head first.  Williams has been on a minute-limit this season and his struggles continued last night in a two-point, six-assist effort in 14 minutes.  He’s hitting just 32.7 percent of his shots this season and news of an injury wouldn’t be surprising. 

Meanwhile, LaVine is as raw as they come and there hasn’t been any consensus on his ability to handle the point guard position at the NBA level.  Thrust into a starting role after playing just 13 minutes on the season, and frankly, after being a relative unknown as a complimentary piece in UCLA’s attack the year before – any projection would be guesswork. 

The good news is that some things have become a bit clearer after two games.  After averaging 30 mpg in the two contests, getting good reviews from Flip Saunders last night, and given Williams’ downward trend owners can feel good about his chances of getting more run rather than less run.  His shooting is a mess at 28.6 percent with just one three and one steal in that span, but he has averaged 4.5 boards and 6.5 assists to show the framework of his upside.  He’s already a borderline value in 12-16 team leagues (8/9 cat) in the small sample size, but the only direction to go is up here.  With Rubio sitting on a 7-8 week timetable, I’m calling him a must-add player because if anything clicks he has mid-round upside with key metrics at an absolute floor. 

As a general update, there’s still no way you’ll find me parting with Gorgui Dieng, who is returning top 85-115 value (9/8 cat) in just 18 mpg.  Playing behind injury risk Nikola Pekovic, dropping that guy is just plain crazy.  As for Andrew Wiggins (15 points, one three, one rebound, one block, 32 minutes), I just don’t think he has the stat-set to support a long-term, must-own position.  I like him as a player and he’ll be unleashed at some point but owners have to ask themselves if the juice is worth the squeeze.