College Football Picks: Week 12 Predictions for Every Game – Bleacher Report Depending on what situation a college football team is in, the 2014 season is either running out of opportunities or can’t end soon enough. Entering the 12th week of the season, 52 schools have reached bowl eligibility, while another 25 are guaranteed to have their years end without an extra game in a far-off locale. The rest in the middle are still battling, either to lock up a shot at a bowl or stave off elimination. For those near the top of the heap, it’s more a matter of getting into (or staying in) position for a major postseason game, possibly a spot in the first ever College Football Playoff. Overall, nearly every game this week has a bearing on one team’s season or another. Take a look at our Week 12 predictions, as well as our experts’ picks on the top games, then give us your thoughts in the comments section. Last week: 38-12 (.760) Season: 491-157 (.758) NOTE: Rankings used for teams are from the College Football Playoff poll. When: Thursday, Nov. 13; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: Cincinnati beat East Carolina, 24-19, in September 2004, when both teams were in Conference USA. What to Watch for East Carolina (6-2, 3-1 American) has dropped out of the rankings and doesn’t appear headed to a New Year’s Day bowl game, but the Pirates can still win the American in their first season if they win out and get some help. The loss at Temple was as much about lack of focus as anything, and with a bye, this veteran team paced by quarterback Shane Carden should be in a much better frame of mind for the stretch run. Cincinnati (5-3, 3-1) has won three straight to right the ship, getting better defensive effort to go with an offense that continues to click, even with its muddy quarterback situation due to Gunner Kiel’s rib issues. The Bearcats’ streak came against teams with a combined 6-20 record, though, and they are 1-3 against opponents with winning records. East Carolina reasserts itself with a big Thursday win to keep a conference title in play. Prediction: East Carolina 31, Cincinnati 24 When: Thursday, Nov. 13; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to Watch for Southern Mississippi (3-7, 1-5 Conference USA) has fallen back into old habits during a three-game losing streak, particularly an inability to make plays on defense. The Golden Eagles allow 36.8 points per game, and 43 per game during their skid, including 63 at home to Marshall last week. UTSA (2-7, 1-4) has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country this season, coming in with high hopes thanks to a senior-laden roster, but outside of a surprising win at Houston to open the year, it has done next to nothing. The Roadrunners offense has been lethargic, averaging only 16.9 points per game. Look for UTSA—the more veteran team—to get this one, though. Prediction: UTSA 27, Southern Mississippi 21 When: Thursday, Nov. 13; 9 p.m. ET Last meeting: USC scored three touchdowns on punt returns, two from Nelson Agholor, in a 62-28 win at California in November 2013. What to Watch for California (5-4, 3-4 Pac-12) needs one more win to get its first bowl bid since 2011, something that didn’t seem possible at the beginning of the season after the Golden Bears went 1-11 last season. Jared Goff (3,119 passing yards, 27 touchdowns) and Daniel Lasco (796 rushing yards, 10 TD) have piloted a high-powered, quick-strike offense that averages 41.9 points per game, but that can only do so much when the defense gets ripped for 39.9 points and 525.9 yards per game. USC (6-3, 5-2) isn’t as explosive on offense, but it has shown consistency and efficiency to the tune of 88.6 percent success in the red zone. The Trojans skill players have thrived in first-year coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense, with Cody Kessler throwing for 2,548 yards and 25 touchdowns and Javorius Allen rushing for 1,124 yards and eight TD. Allen is the Pac-12’s leading rusher in yards per game, something USC hasn’t featured since Ricky Ervins in 1989. And with Cal featuring a run defense that ranks 87th in the country, expect Allen to be the difference-maker in this game. Prediction: USC 38, California 34 When: Friday, Nov. 14; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Alex Singleton scored on a one-yard run in overtime to give Tulsa a 33-27 win over UCF to win the 2012 Conference USA title game. What to Watch for Tulsa (2-7, 2-3 American) ended a seven-game losing streak by outlasting winless SMU at home last week, but overall, it’s been a very disappointing season for the Golden Hurricane. A solid offense has weapons to work with, but it just allowed an opponent that averages 9.6 points per game to score 28. UCF (5-3, 3-1) laid a major egg last time out, losing at Connecticut for its first defeat in conference play in the past two seasons. The Knights defense had its worst performance of the year, negating what’s slowly become a more effective attack behind quarterback Justin Holman. UCF gets back on track with an overmatched opponent that Holman will pick apart. Prediction: UCF 38, Tulsa 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Terrelle Pryor had 277 yards of total offense and accounted for three touchdowns in Ohio State’s 52-10 win at Minnesota in October 2010. The Buckeyes have won eight straight over the Golden Gophers. What to Watch for Ohio State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten) has won seven straight, none bigger than last week’s impressive 49-37 victory at Michigan State. The Buckeyes tore right through MSU’s stout defense to the tune of 568 yards through a balanced attack featuring continually improving quarterback J.T. Barrett and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Barrett has entered the Heisman race after a slow start, shaking off a woeful game in OSU’s puzzling home loss to Virginia Tech to throw 23 touchdown passes against only three interceptions during the win streak. He’s also run for 582 yards, making him the No. 10 rusher in a Big Ten that features four running backs with more than 1,200 yards. Minnesota (7-2, 4-1) is off to one of its best starts ever, and last week’s 51-14 drubbing of Iowa was a great sign of a team rebounding that lost at Illinois the game before. The Golden Gophers haven’t been very flashy, though against Iowa, their passing game woke up thanks to tight end Maxx Williams’ amazing catches. Instead, it’s been a grind-it-out approach led by David Cobb, who has 1,205 yards and eight touchdowns but also has more carries (227) than anyone else in the conference. The Gophers’ biggest test of the season came at TCU, and they were whooped, 30-7. While it held TCU below its season averages in points and yards, Minnesota had no way of keeping up. That appears to be the case here as well, and with OSU’s defensive line picking up steam, that’s going to prevent Minnesota from getting into any flow on offense. Prediction: Ohio State 34, Minnesota 19 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Matt McGloin threw for 318 yards and a touchdown in Penn State’s 24-13 home win over Temple in September 2012, the Nittany Lions’ 30th straight victory over the Owls. What to Watch for Temple (5-4) lost at home to Memphis on a last-second field goal last week, killing the momentum gained from its big win over East Carolina. The Owls defense has been among the best in the country this season, ranking 10th in scoring, but in going 1-3 over the past month, the team has only scored 14.3 points per game. Penn State (5-4) ended a four-game losing streak with a defense-driven 13-7 win at Indiana last week. Bill Belton finally had a big game at running back, with 137 yards, but other than his 92-yard touchdown run, the Nittany Lions only gained 238 yards on their other 65 plays. Defense has carried PSU all season, as it ranks third in yards allowed at 267.6 per game. Expect another low-scoring affair, with the Lions becoming bowl-eligible in the process. Prediction: Penn State 17, Temple 13 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Tajh Boyd threw for 340 yards and four touchdowns, setting the ACC career passing TD record in a 55-31 home win over Georgia Tech in November 2013. What to Watch for Neither Clemson nor Georgia Tech is going to win its division in the ACC, unless the teams ahead of them have major collapses down the stretch. Instead, this conference finale for both teams is significant for bowl positioning more than anything, as the likelihood of Florida State making the semifinals means the highest-ranked remaining ACC team gets to play in the Orange Bowl. Clemson (7-2, 6-1) has a slight edge in that department now, sitting just ahead of No. 21 Duke and its opponent Saturday. But with remaining games against 1-9 Georgia State and a down South Carolina team, this is the Tigers’ last chance to beef up their resume. And it will be a major test for their strong defense, facing the No. 3 rushing offense in the country. The Tigers are second overall in yards allowed at 252 per game and give up just 90.9 yards per game on the ground to rank fourth nationally. Georgia Tech (8-2, 5-2) gains 335.6 yards per game through its option attack, with quarterback Justin Thomas leading the way. He’s run for 781 yards and is one of seven players with at least three rushing TD, while he’s also done damage through the air with 14 TD on only 134 attempts. The Yellow Jackets have averaged 38.8 points per game this season, but because of a two-game skid in October—losing to Duke and North Carolina—they can only win the Coastal Division if they take this one and Duke loses twice more. Where this game will turn, though, depends on how effective Clemson quarterback DeShaun Watson is. The freshman was phenomenal after taking over the starting job back in September, but he broke a bone in his throwing hand early in the Oct. 11 win over Louisville. Cole Stoudt has won every game in his place, but Clemson’s offense averaged 22.5 points per game during that stretch compared to 40.4 before Watson’s injury. Watson told reporters he has “no pain at all,” which remains to be seen in a game situation. Still, he’ll be the difference in this one. Prediction: Clemson 38, Georgia Tech 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Duke used four interceptions of Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas to pace a 13-10 upset at Virginia Tech in October 2013. What to Watch for Virginia Tech (4-5, 1-4 ACC) has lost three in a row and is at risk of missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 1992. A mix of injuries on both sides of the ball, breakdowns on defense and mistakes in the passing game are to blame. Michael Brewer has been intercepted 11 times, and when he has a good game, it’s the Hokies defense that gives up points in bunches. Tech allows only 345.1 yards per game, but during the losing streak, that average has risen to 385 per game while allowing 84 points in those last three. Duke (8-1, 4-1) has improved vastly on defense, lowering its scoring average from 26.6 last season to 18.2 this year. That reduction is 12th best in the country, according to CoachingSearch.com. Combined with an efficient offense paced by Anthony Boone at quarterback, the Blue Devils are in control of the Coastal Division and in line to make the ACC title game for a second straight year. Winning at Virginia Tech last year was the start of Duke’s rise, and it will continue with a home win over the Hokies. Prediction: Duke 27, Virginia Tech 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Antonio Andrews’ two-yard touchdown run with 32 seconds left gave Western Kentucky a 21-17 win at Army in November 2013. What to Watch for Army (3-6) kept its faint bowl hopes alive with a hard-fought win over Connecticut last week at Yankee Stadium. The Black Knights ran for 327 yards, upping their season average to 298.3 while also getting a huge defensive play late when Chris Carnegie returned an interception 99 yards for a game-icing touchdown. Western Kentucky (4-5) held off a good UTEP team at home last week to start a three-game homestand that should earn the Hilltoppers bowl eligibility in their first season in Conference USA. Offense hasn’t been a problem for this team, which averages 40.4 points per game and has gotten 3,329 yards and 28 touchdowns from quarterback Brandon Doughty, but the defense allows 527.4 yards per game. Two defenses that struggle to stop each other’s offensive strength will make for a wild one, but Western Kentucky has the better game plan for a victory here. Prediction: Western Kentucky 43, Army 38 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: Matt Eller’s 46-yard field goal with 24 seconds left gave Illinois a 27-24 home win over Iowa in November 2008. What to Watch for Iowa (6-3, 3-2 Big Ten) suffered one of its worst losses of the Kirk Ferentz era, with the 51 points it allowed at Minnesota the most a Hawkeyes team has given up since 1995. Defense had been solid for the Hawkeyes prior to that, but over the past month, they’ve allowed 125 points in four games, and their offense hasn’t been able to keep up. Illinois (4-5, 1-4) is expected to get quarterback Wes Lunt back after he missed four of the previous five games because of injury. Lunt had been the spark on offense the Fighting Illini haven’t had of late, and with him in the backfield, the ability to move the ball increases dramatically. Look for Lunt to be a little rusty at first but then pick up steam and lead Illinois to its first two-win Big Ten season since 2011. Prediction: Illinois 33, Iowa 28 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; noon ET Last meeting: South Carolina rallied from a 14-6 halftime deficit to beat Florida, 19-14, at home in November 2013. What to Watch for South Carolina (4-5, 2-5 SEC) has lost four straight conference games, allowing at least 42 points in the last three, which doesn’t bode well when heading on the road to play a team that’s shown much improvement on offense of late. The Gamecocks rank 110th in total defense, allowing 460.6 yards per game, which in SEC play jumps to 484.3. Florida (5-3, 4-3) looked to be headed for a season that most surely would end with the firing of its coach, but after the Gators romped Georgia, they won at Vanderbilt to virtually guarantee a bowl appearance. An offense that has found its stride has triggered the turnaround, first with the run game against Georgia and then by providing freshman quarterback Treon Harris the protection to throw with ease at Vandy. Now, the Gators get a chance to run and throw against the conference’s worst defense, lock up a bowl bid and amazingly stay in the hunt for the SEC East title. Prediction: Florida 34, South Carolina 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 12:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Ryan Switzer returned a punt 61 yards for a touchdown with 4:46 left to give North Carolina a 34-27 win at Pittsburgh in November 2013. What to Watch for Pittsburgh (4-5, 2-3 ACC) has lost five of six since a 3-0 start, allowing 107 points in its last two games. Running back James Conner has paced a rushing offense that ranks 18th in the country at 247.7 yards per game, but 11 lost fumbles have hampered the Panthers and kept them from playing like they did at the start of the season. North Carolina (4-5, 2-3) was blown out at Miami in its last game, yet again looking horrible on defense. The Tar Heels give up 510.3 yards and 41.9 points per game, numbers that have overshadowed a solid offense led by quarterback Marquise Williams’ 2,727 total yards and 24 combined touchdowns. In the race for bowl eligibility, neither team can afford another loss. Last team to score wins, with a slight advantage to UNC. Prediction: North Carolina 44, Pittsburgh 38 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 1 p.m. ET Last meeting: Saylor Lavallii ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns in Central Michigan’s 21-9 win at Miami (Ohio) in October 2013. What to Watch for Miami (2-8, 2-4 Mid-American) is one of the most improved teams in the country, despite the lack of wins to show for it. The RedHawks are averaging 22 points per game, more than double the 9.8 output of 2013, thanks to Notre Dame transfer quarterback Andrew Hendrix’s 2,693 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. Central Michigan (6-4, 4-2) needed to win three straight to get to six wins at the end of last season, but this year, the Chippewas have gotten bowl eligibility out of the way early with a 4-1 run that included the first win against Northern Illinois by a MAC team in the regular season in several years. They can’t win the division, but they can improve their chances of getting a bowl bid after being snubbed in 2013. Chippewas roll in a high-scoring game. Prediction: Central Michigan 43, Miami 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 2 p.m. ET Last meeting: Cody Fajardo had 470 yards of total offense and accounted for five touchdowns in Nevada’s 45-42 home win over Air Force in September 2013. What to Watch for A big cross-division game between teams having big bounce-back years will be one of the best contests of the weekend—and sadly it won’t be on television. Nevada (6-3, 3-2 Mountain West) has been paced by senior dual-threat quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has remained healthy to contribute 22 touchdowns (including 10 on the ground), with 2,516 yards of total offense. The Wolf Pack have won three straight, including over San Diego State to hold the tiebreaker atop the West Division. Air Force (7-2, 3-2) is too far back in the pack in the much tougher Mountain Division to claim the title, but the Falcons are still having a great season after going 2-10 a year ago. They took back the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy after sweeping Army and Navy and have the only conference win over Boise State on the strength of a balanced offense and an improved defense that allows 18 points per game fewer than in 2013. Nevada’s plus-11 turnover margin is among the tops in the country, and that will be the difference. Prediction: Nevada 30, Air Force 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 2 p.m. ET Last meeting: Ryan Brumfield’s four-yard touchdown run in overtime gave Eastern Michigan a 35-32 home win over Western Michigan in November 2013. What to Watch for Eastern Michigan (2-7, 1-4 Mid-American) has averaged 34 points in its wins and 8.7 in the its losses, never topping 17 points in those defeats. The Eagles have an exciting young player in dual-threat quarterback Reginald Bell Jr., but after suffering a concussion against Central Michigan on Nov. 1, he has yet to be cleared to play. Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1) is worlds apart from last year’s 1-11 team, and it remains in the hunt for the West Division title thanks to an exciting young offense highlighted by FBS rushing touchdown leader Jarvion Franklin. Franklin has run for 1,330 yards and 22 touchdowns, gaining 648 yards and 10 touchdowns during the Broncos’ four-game win streak. Home teams tend to win out in the battle of the directionals, and this one will go chalk in that respect. Prediction: Western Michigan 47, Eastern Michigan 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 2:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Charles Ross ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns as Rice beat visiting Marshall, 41-24, to win the Conference USA title game in December 2013. What to Watch for A rematch of last year’s Conference USA title game will also serve as the first real test for both teams since league play began. Rice (6-3, 4-1) has won six in a row and is playing much like the team that won the conference last season. The Owls have gotten heady play from quarterback Driphus Jackson, while the rushing tandem of Jowan Davis and Darik Dillard has combined for 1,316 yards and 12 touchdowns. Marshall (9-0, 5-0) has yet to be challenged this season, scoring at least 35 points in every game and winning by an average of 31 points. Quarterback Rakeem Cato has thrown a touchdown pass in 41 straight games, and his 2,316 passing yards and 22 TD this season have moved him past 12,000 career yards with 113 TD. The Thundering Herd scored 63 points last week at Southern Mississippi, despite not having leading rusher Devon Johnson available because of a leg injury. He’s run for 1,203 yards and 15 TD and will be available for this chance at revenge. “We felt like we let a game slip by us last year,” Johnson told Grant Traylor of the Herald-Dispatch. “It was a great team last year. We’re not going to let it get the best of us, but we’re going to attack this week with a little more edge.” This could be a preview of another C-USA title game, and if it is, it’s going to represent the first of two solid wins by Marshall that could beef up its chances of getting a major bowl invite. Prediction: Marshall 35, Rice 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3 p.m. ET Last meeting: Tanner Price had 350 yards of total offense and accounted for four touchdowns in Wake Forest’s 28-13 home win over North Carolina State in October 2013. What to Watch for Wake Forest (2-7, 0-5 ACC) has lost five straight but was tied with Clemson at home last week before losing by two touchdowns. The Demon Deacons have fought hard on defense, but that unit wears down when it’s on the field constantly trying to atone for an offense that ranks last in the FBS in rushing (31.4 yards per game). North Carolina State (5-5, 1-5) has lost five of six since a 4-0 start, with its losses coming to teams that are a combined 37-11. The Wolfpack have allowed 15.8 points per game during their last five while giving up 30 or more points in five of six. The Wolfpack have enough to win this one and become bowl-eligible. Prediction: North Carolina State 33, Wake Forest 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3 p.m. ET Last meeting: TCU overcame five turnovers to post a 27-17 home win over Kansas in October 2013. What to Watch for TCU (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) has made its case with impressive wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia and, most recently, Kansas State, and the selection committee liked what it saw. Now TCU can’t afford even the slightest slip-up and has to be hoping those below don’t impress too much. The Horned Frogs’ remaining opponents are a combined 10-18, which won’t help with the strength-of-schedule factor. Instead, they’ll just need to continue looking good while making stops on defense as Trevone Boykin and the offense put up big points. Kansas (3-6, 1-5) is playing out the string, but with its win last week over Iowa State, it’s shown a willingness to play hard for interim coach Clint Bowen. There’s not much talent there, but with a remaining slate against winning teams, the Jayhawks will look to play spoiler. That isn’t a very likely scenario here, not with all that is at stake for TCU. Instead, it could be another game like against Texas Tech, with records being set offensively. Prediction: TCU 51, Kansas 16 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to Watch for Appalachian State (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) has turned around its season with three straight wins, the last of which came thanks to a final-minute field goal to beat Louisiana-Monroe. The Mountaineers have improved their defense immensely, allowing only 14.3 points per game during the win streak. Arkansas State (6-3, 4-1) is bowl-eligible for a fourth straight season and with a fourth different head coach, as Blake Anderson has been able to mirror the success of past Red Wolves coaches Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin. Running back Michael Gordon and quarterback Fredi Knighten have teamed to form the No. 30 rushing offense in the country. Appalachian State’s momentum will be stunted by a superior team. Prediction: Arkansas State 33, Appalachian State 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to Watch for The nation’s top two rushing offenses will clash in a game that could last less than two and a half hours, unless one team decides to uncharacteristically start throwing a lot. Georgia Southern (8-2) has been very impressive in its first season of FBS play, posting the No. 1 rushing offense that averages 385.1 yards per game and is responsible for 49 touchdowns. The Eagles’ worst performance in that area actually came last week, when they had just 227 yards with three TD in a 28-25 win at Texas State. Navy (4-5) is second in rushing at 350.4 yards per game, paced by touchdown-machine Keenan Reynolds at quarterback. He ran for 31 scores last season, and despite missing two games because of injury, he’s run for 11 TD in 2014. The Midshipmen have come up short in a pair of high-profile matchups, failing to hold leads against Ohio State and Notre Dame. The experience of those contests, along with a more entrenched history of success, will give Navy the edge in a very entertaining game for fans of old-school triple-option football. Prediction: Navy 45, Georgia Southern 40 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: T.J. Yeldon ran for 160 yards in Alabama’s 20-7 win at Mississippi State in November 2013. What to Watch for Mississippi State (9-0, 5-0 SEC) now seems to have a stranglehold on the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, with one-loss Oregon sliding ahead of unbeaten Florida State for No. 2. But that advantage only exists as long as the Bulldogs keep winning, and now comes arguably their toughest stretch this season—which is a notable phrase considering they had that run earlier this season playing (and beating) three straight Top 10 teams. Playing in Tuscaloosa is a different story, though. MSU hasn’t won there since 2006, and in the three games there since, it’s lost the “90 Mile Drive” by an average of 25.3 points per game. It’s part of the reason MSU is an underdog in this game, despite being No. 1. “Every article you read, everywhere you look, we’re the big underdog in this game,” coach Dan Mullen said told The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports). “We’ve done that before and we know that role. We’ll be OK with that. Our guys will play with great effort and with a chip on our shoulder that we try to play with every week no matter what the rankings or what everyone else is predicting.” The game plan will be simple and involve a lot of Dak Prescott doing what he’s done all year with his legs and his arm. Prescott, a major Heisman candidate, has 3,010 yards of total offense and has tallied 29 touchdowns. His 779 rushing yards and 11 TD have resulted in frequent comparisons to Tim Tebow, and that is the kind of quarterbacks that Alabama has struggled with over the years. Alabama (8-1, 5-1) had no answer for Johnny Manziel the past two years, with the then-redshirt freshman orchestrating a surprise upset of the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa in 2012. That’s the last time Alabama has lost at home, and since then, it has won 13 straight by an average of 39.1 points, with seven shutouts. The Tide are coming off a huge overtime win at LSU and, despite currently sitting outside the semifinals, are in total control of their own destiny. Win out—which would mean knocking off the No. 1 team, as well as Auburn—and take the SEC title game, and the Tide no doubt will be in the playoffs, possibly even the top seed. Lose here, though, and not only would the West Division be out the window but likely a shot at another title, too. A lot of the stats between the teams are even, except for one: MSU ranks 123rd in the country in pass defense, which means odds are Lane Kiffin will call a bevy of plays to exploit that and knock off the SEC’s last unbeaten team. Prediction: Alabama 30, Mississippi State 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jacob Karam threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns in Memphis’ 37-23 home win over Tulane in November 2012. What to Watch for Memphis (6-3, 4-1 American) has the inside track on the conference title, holding a half-game lead over three teams and facing a final stretch of opponents who are collectively 8-19 this season. After winning at Temple last week, the Tigers are on a three-game win streak, paced by a defense that allows less than 19 points per game. Tulane (3-6, 2-3) pulled off a shocker last week, winning at Houston, but it has struggled to be consistent on offense in 2014. The Green Wave topped 21 points for just the third time this season at Houston and average less than 20 points per game. This won’t be an easy one for Memphis, but it has momentum and should continue to roll toward a championship. Prediction: Memphis 27, Tulane 13 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Montee Ball ran for 202 yards and three touchdowns as Wisconsin blew out Nebraska, 70-31 in the Big Ten title game in December 2012. What to Watch for If there were a way to have this game be just a back-and-forth between two of the nation’s best running backs, Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin, that in itself would make for great viewing. Instead, this is the de facto Big Ten West Division title game while also providing Nebraska with its last shot at proving worthy of being considered a playoff contender. Nebraska (8-1, 4-1 Big Ten) is the lowest-rated one-loss team from a power conference other than Duke, mostly because the Cornhuskers haven’t beaten anyone of significance. Their best win came at home to a Miami team that wasn’t very good at the time, while the remainder of the victories don’t hold much weight. Abdullah has been the offensive star, though how effective he’ll be here depends on the extent of his recovery from a sprained MCL suffered early against Purdue two weeks ago. Coach Bo Pelini told Brian Christopherson of the Lincoln Journal Star, “I don’t know how it’s going to play out” with Abdullah’s health. This will mean more touches for backup Imani Cross and more pressure on quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has had a good season but completed only 46.5 percent of his throws with two interceptions and no touchdowns in the 27-22 loss at Michigan State, Nebraska’s most notable game to date. Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1) has ridden Gordon as much as it can this season, giving the reliable tailback increased carries after limited work early on. Gordon leads the FBS with 1,501 yards and has scored 19 touchdowns, averaging 22 carries per game and 7.6 yards per rush. But the Badgers are more than just Gordon, with an overall run game that averages 325.7 yards per game to rank fifth nationally. And more importantly for this game, the Badgers defense is tops in the country at 251.1 yards allowed per game. Neither team has shown it can beat a quality opponent yet—Wisconsin came up short to LSU and lost at Northwestern—but playing at home gives the Badgers an extra edge. Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Northwestern opened up its last Rose Bowl season with a 17-15 win at Notre Dame in September 1995. What to Watch for Northwestern (3-6) lost an ugly game at home to Michigan last week, falling 10-9 after failing on a two-point conversion in the final moments. This year has been similar to 2013 in how the Wildcats have found different ways to lose, with their offense ranking a lowly 117th in the country. Notre Dame (7-2) is no longer part of the playoff picture, not after getting crushed at Arizona State last week. The Fighting Irish can turn their attention to finishing strong and earning a New Year’s bowl invite, but more than anything, they need to figure out a way to help quarterback Everett Golson cut down on the mistakes. Golson has turned it over 17 times in the last six games, contributing to Notre Dame’s minus-two turnover margin, but coach Brian Kelly can’t bench him because of how productive Golson has been, with 2,757 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. A few mistakes shouldn’t make much of a difference in this one, a game that will be the Irish’s last breather before playing Louisville and USC to finish the regular season. Prediction: Notre Dame 36, Northwestern 16 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Middle Tennessee became bowl-eligible with a 48-0 home win over Florida International in November 2013. What to Watch for Middle Tennessee (5-4, 4-1 Conference USA) is 1-3 on the road this season and 4-1 at home, but that lone loss in Murfreesboro came last time out against BYU. The Blue Raiders have fared well in C-USA play, only losing to Marshall, and are on pace for a third consecutive season of bowl eligibility. Florida International (3-7, 2-4) has lost four in a row, as its early-season trend of converting turnovers into points hasn’t materialized of late. The Golden Panthers fell three points shy of their season high in points in a loss at Old Dominion last week, but overall, it’s been a rough season moving the ball, with just 299.6 yards per game. Middle Tennessee is minus-six in the turnover battle in its losses, and it will struggle to win that war here. Prediction: Florida International 26, Middle Tennessee 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Blake Bell threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 38-30 home win over previously unbeaten Texas Tech in October 2013. What to Watch for Oklahoma (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) got blown out at home by Baylor last week, knocking it out of the conference title picture earlier than anyone could have expected. The Sooners also lost quarterback Trevor Knight to an injury, and his status for this game is up in the air. This puts more emphasis on a run game that ranks 27th in the country at 225 yards per game but has been held under 200 in four of the past five outings, including all three losses. Texas Tech (3-6, 1-5) needs to win out or it will end up without a bowl bid for the second time in four years. While the Red Raiders have been able to move the ball, per normal, they haven’t been as dynamic as in the past, with injuries to both Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes forcing walk-on Vincent Testaverde Jr. into action last time out against Texas. More than anything, though, Tech’s problems have been the same as in the past: turnovers and shoddy defense. Tech has not won the turnover battle in 17 straight games, and its minus-12 turnover margin is third worst in the country. That will once again factor into the outcome. Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: None What to Watch for Indiana (3-6, 0-5 Big Ten) would need to win out to make a bowl game, but with a trip to Ohio State after visiting New Jersey, that’s not likely. The Hoosiers defense has been a major weakness all season, and even when they did manage to keep Penn State in check in a low-scoring affair last week, they didn’t get the normal production from running back Tevin Coleman, who was held under 100 yards for the first time in 2014. Rutgers (5-4, 1-4) has listed quarterback Gary Nova as probable for this one, according to Dan Duggan of NJ.com. Nova had to leave each of the past two games—part of a blowout-filled three-game losing streak—because of a knee injury, and without him, the Scarlet Knights offense can’t do much. Nova must avoid mistakes, but he’ll be facing a weak defense. Rutgers’ run-stopping is bad, too, so Coleman should go off, making for a rather high-scoring game that the home team will claim. Prediction: Rutgers 41, Indiana 33 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 3:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Bishop Sankey ran for 161 yards and a touchdown in Washington’s 31-13 home win over Arizona in September 2013. What to Watch for Washington (6-4, 2-4 Pac-12) has only two wins against above-.500 teams this season, with one of those being FCS Eastern Washington. The Huskies have shuffled players from one side of the ball to the other to fill gaps, with linebacker Shaq Thompson starting the last two games at running back and wide receiver/kick returner John Ross moving to cornerback. Coach Chris Petersen has indicated Thompson will move back to defense this week to try to slow down Arizona’s uptempo attack, which means quarterback Cyler Miles will have to create more on his own. He’s thrown for 1,404 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight starts, with the Huskies ranking 110th in passing. Arizona (7-2, 4-2) was 5-4 after nine games in Rich Rodriguez‘s first season in 2012, 6-3 last year and now 7-2. The Wildcats continue to show improvement behind a balanced offense that found its run game last week against Colorado. On defense, they’ve got a massively underrated star in linebacker Scooby Wright. Both teams feature big playmakers on defense, but with Arizona having the complementary offense, it’s the Wildcats who will be in control. Prediction: Arizona 34, Washington 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: Joey DeMartino ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns in Utah State’s 45-10 win at New Mexico in October 2013. What to Watch for New Mexico (3-6, 1-4 Mountain West) continued its rather odd trend of blowing chances at home, dropping to 0-5 in Albuquerque after falling, 60-49, to Boise State despite rushing for more than 500 yards. The Lobos’ sieve of a defense—it ranks 123rd in yards allowed—has prevented them from being able to hold on to leads. Utah State (7-3, 4-1) has stitched together another great year and remains in the hunt for a second straight Mountain Division crown, despite being on its fourth quarterback. Freshman Kent Myers has been masterful since taking over the job, completing 27-of-31 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns in his two starts. New Mexico plays better on the road, but it won’t be able to hang with the Aggies. Prediction: Utah State 38, New Mexico 14 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 4 p.m. ET Last meeting: Joshua Dobbs threw two touchdown passes and ran for another in Tennessee’s 27-14 win at Kentucky in November 2013. What to Watch for Kentucky (5-5, 2-5 SEC) is reeling, loser of four straight and coming off a 63-31 blowout loss at home to Georgia. Despite improvement on offense, it hasn’t been enough to offset a young defense that’s getting torn apart of late. The Wildcats are still well ahead of last year, when they were 2-10, but what looked like a very good shot at a bowl a month ago isn’t so probable anymore. Tennessee (4-5, 1-4) turned its season around when it turned to sophomore quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who has electrified the offense with his mobility and passing accuracy. After finally breaking through with a major comeback at South Carolina, the Volunteers have a shot to win out—or at least get the two wins necessary to lock up a bowl invite. Vols win, but not without a fight from the Wildcats. Prediction: Tennessee 37, Kentucky 33 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 4:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: David Fales threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns in San Jose State’s 37-27 win at Hawaii in October 2013. What to watch for Hawaii (2-8, 1-4 Mountain West) lost its 17th straight road game last week by getting blown out at Colorado State, despite the return of running back Joey Iosefa from injury. The Warriors have averaged only 16 points per game during their four-game losing streak. San Jose State (3-6, 2-3) has dropped three in a row, its defense allowing 39 points per game during that skid. The Spartans have a talented quarterback in Joe Gray, but he’s thrown five interceptions in the past three games. This is a winnable game for Hawaii, but it doesn’t have the weapons to keep up. Prediction: San Jose State 31, Hawaii 23 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 5 p.m. ET Last meeting: Troy beat Idaho 47-7 in October 2004 in Idaho’s previous brief stint as a Sun Belt Conference member. What to watch for Troy (2-8, 2-4 Sun Belt) had a season high in points last week, winning 45-21 over Georgia State thanks to 324 rushing yards as a team. The Trojans have averaged 43 points in their wins but only 14.9 in every other game. Idaho (1-8, 1-5) played relatively well in a 35-21 loss at San Diego State last week, a game that was tied at halftime. The Vandals have become a more dynamic offense with mobile quarterback Chad Chalich under center, as he’s run for 160 yards over the last three games. This is the last chance for either team to get a win in this lost season, and Idaho will get its second. Prediction: Idaho 34, Troy 27 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 6 p.m. ET Last meeting: Utah used a late goal-line stand to upset previously unbeaten Stanford 27-21 at home in October 2013. What to watch for Utah (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12) was flying high a few weeks ago after its hard-fought win over USC, but reality has set in via a rough stretch of conference contenders, resulting in back-to-back losses. Losing to Arizona State in overtime was bad enough, but the setback to Oregon was partially Utah’s fault due to the huge momentum swing that came from Kaelin Clay’s drop-the-ball-before-the-end-zone gaffe that changed the game early. Looking deeper, though, the Utes offense is struggling to provide enough production to match the work of the defense. That was evident last week, as Oregon tore up that strong defense, and quarterback Travis Wilson wasn’t able to match scores. Running back Devontae Booker has become vulnerable to stacked boxes too. Stanford (5-4, 3-3) provides an even more rigorous test for that offense with its stout defensive group, which was also wrecked by Oregon last time out. The Cardinal have struggled on offense as well, but their biggest problem has been keeping things going in the red zone. At 64.9 percent, Stanford’s red-zone efficiency is second-worst in the country, with only 43.2 percent of its drives ending with a touchdown. The Cardinal have had a week to regroup, while Utah is amidst a very stressful run without a break. That gives Stanford a distinct edge. Prediction: Stanford 28, Utah 13 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: Kolton Browning threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns in Louisiana-Monroe’s 31-28 win at Louisiana-Lafayette in November 2013. What to watch for Louisiana-Lafayette (6-3, 5-0 Sun Belt) looks to be on pace for another conference title, though because the Ragin’ Cajuns don’t face Georgia Southern this season, they would share the championship if both teams go unbeaten. Since a sluggish 1-3 start, they’ve run off five straight, with running back Elijah McGuire running for 517 yards and six touchdowns over the past three games. Louisiana-Monroe (3-6, 2-3) has dropped five in a row, falling at Appalachian State last week on a last-second field goal. The Warhawks are fifth-worst in the country in rushing at 87.1 yards per game, which has contributed to their meager 18.7 points per game scoring average. Lafayette is rolling, and only a letdown performance will get in the way. But this is a rivalry game, and after losing at home to Monroe last season, the Cajuns will be fired up for a big effort. Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 38, Louisiana-Monroe 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7 p.m. ET Last meeting: Josh Quezada ran for three touchdowns in BYU’s 55-7 home win over UNLV in November 2010. What to watch for UNLV (2-8) has regressed big time since last season’s bowl team, as its young roster hasn’t been able to produce consistently on offense or defend well. The Runnin’ Rebels have averaged 24.8 points per game over their last four but for the season are only at 20 points per game. BYU (5-4) ended a four-game losing streak last time out, winning at Middle Tennessee, and need one more win to lock up a prearranged spot in the Miami Beach Bowl. Quarterback Christian Stewart has slowly improved since replacing the injured Taysom Hill at quarterback, with 983 passing yards and seven touchdowns over his last three starts. BYU can start stocking up on sunscreen for a South Florida vacation. Prediction: BYU 50, UNLV 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7:15 p.m. ET Last meeting: Ricardo Louis caught a tipped pass to score a 73-yard touchdown with 25 seconds left—a play that became known as the “Prayer at Jordan-Hare”—to give Auburn a 43-38 home win over Georgia in November 2013. What to watch for The best cross-divisional game in the SEC has the added value this season of being an elimination bout between a pair of schools with slim-but-still-alive chances of being part of the national championship discussion. Auburn (7-2, 4-2) finally saw luck go against it last week at home against Texas A&M, as the Tigers lost two fumbles in the final three minutes in enemy territory while driving for a game-tying or -winning score. While it may have looked like Cameron Artis-Payne recovered the first loose ball, just short of the goal line, officials didn’t see it that way. The late fumbles were only part of what went wrong in that game for Auburn, as it lost star receiver D’haquille Williams to a knee injury while also playing arguably its worst defense of the season. The Tigers made A&M freshman quarterback Kyle Allen look like a fifth-year senior, then tackled like a junior varsity team. “I think we had 11 [missed tackles] that added up to 114 yards, something of that nature, and that’s a lot of yardage,” defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson told Bleacher Report’s Justin Ferguson. “Of course, you’re going to miss some on great players, but if you eliminate half of that, it will get you off the field quicker, get your offense the ball quicker, helps field position and everything.” Georgia (7-2, 5-2) obliterated Kentucky on the road last week, a huge rebound from its poor effort the week before in the loss to Florida. The Bulldogs sit a game behind Missouri for the East Division lead, with the tiebreaker, but need to win this game and hope Mizzou drops at least one of its final three. The Bulldogs get a huge boost to their run game with the return of Todd Gurley, back from a four-game NCAA suspension for accepting money in exchange for autographs. His production hasn’t been missed much, though, with freshman Nick Chubb averaging 167.8 yards per game in his absence. But Gurley brings an extra dimension with his elusiveness, his power and his speed that translates into the receiving game as well. Georgia’s defense has had its own tackling and breakdown issues of late, allowing more than 400 rushing yards to Florida two weeks ago. Both teams seem like they’ll be able to run at will on the other, so it may come down to which one gets more from its quarterback. Hutson Mason has tossed eight touchdowns with no interceptions over the past four and is starting to gain confidence. Auburn is second-worst in the league in pass defense, and with a likely heavy emphasis on trying to stop Gurley and Chubb, the Tigers will be very susceptible to big plays through the air. Prediction: Georgia 37, Auburn 33 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jason Dann kicked a 42-yard field goal with four seconds left to give Texas State a 33-31 home win over South Alabama in October 2013. What to watch for Texas State (5-4, 3-2 Sun Belt) lost 28-25 at home to Georgia Southern last week, the best anyone in the conference has played against that team this season. The Bobcats shut down the Eagles’ potent run game but made too many mistakes to win, a sign this program is still working toward becoming consistent. South Alabama (5-4, 4-3) has lost two straight, falling to Sun Belt powers Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State in back-to-back games after a 5-2 start. With games at South Carolina and against Navy coming up, this is the Jaguars’ last chance to move up in the conference standings (and secure bowl eligibility). The Jaguars take it in a close one with a late score being the difference. Prediction: South Alabama 29, Texas State 28 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Henry Josey scored on a 57-yard run with 3:34 left to give Missouri a 28-21 home win over Texas A&M to clinch the SEC East title in November 2013. What to watch for Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC) is in control of the East Division with a one-game lead on Georgia, but the Tigers have a rough go of it down the stretch with two road games and a new rivalry with Arkansas. Defense has been their calling card this season, ranking 25th overall by allowing 339.8 yards per game. Shane Ray has 10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss, anchoring a defensive line that’s somehow better than last year’s talented group. Maty Mauk’s play at quarterback has been shoddy the last five games, which has caused Mizzou’s offense to sputter and average only 330.1 yards per game. Texas A&M (7-3, 3-3) resurrected its season with a 41-38 win at Auburn last week, exploding on offense early behind true freshman quarterback Kyle Allen and then rising up late with big plays on special teams and offense. The Aggies can’t win the West Division, but they can play spoiler here and keep building toward a strong finish. Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report wrote that A&M looks set up for a division title run in 2015, particularly on defense, thanks to true freshman defensive end Myles Garrett. “A disruptive force like Garrett is a great foundation for a young Aggie defense, which is loaded with youth,” Sallee wrote. Against an offense that hasn’t been able to show consistency, this is a chance for another leap forward by that A&M defense. The result will be a low-scoring affair that the Aggies claim. Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Missouri 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 7:30 p.m. ET Last meeting: Clint Chelf threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more scores in Oklahoma State’s 38-13 win at Texas in November 2013. What to watch for Texas (5-5, 4-3 Big 12) has begun to assert itself defensively, helping the Longhorns win their last two, including an impressive performance last week against West Virginia. Tied for 11th nationally with 30 sacks, the Longhorns are using that side of the ball to set up their defense with good situations, which has led to 30-plus points in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State (5-4, 3-3) dropped three in a row before a bye week, seeing its offense fall apart with only 33 points scored in those losses. The Cowboys were no match for their three ranked opponents, and everyone left on the schedule has at least a .500 record. What seemed like a lost season early for Texas will now include a bowl, while a once-promising year for OK State continues to spiral. Prediction: Texas 27, Oklahoma State 17 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jameis Winston threw for 325 yards and a touchdown in Florida State’s 41-14 home win over Miami in November 2013. What to watch for Florida State (9-0, 6-0) has won 25 straight games, the longest streak in more than a decade, yet few teams who have gone unbeaten for as long as the Seminoles have been as undervalued. That’s partly due to how they’ve been winning this season, needing to come from behind on numerous occasions rather than dominating from the outset. The formula of late has been that FSU will spot a team a lead, and then Jameis Winston will orchestrate a comeback. But he’s been as much of the problem as anyone recently, throwing 11 interceptions this season after 10 all of last year, with five in the last two games. “That is the downfall with Winston’s approach,” wrote Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel. “He’s lauded for his gunslinger mentality and willingness to stay in the pocket and look for plays downfield; it’s what makes him great. With that comes an increased opportunity for turnovers.” Miami (6-3, 3-2) has forced 19 turnovers, tied for 20th in the country, collecting eight during its three-game win streak. Being able to flip the field has helped the Hurricanes defense continue to improve and has enabled running back Duke Johnson to dominate over the past month. Johnson, who broke his ankle in the FSU game last season to cut short a promising year, is second in the ACC with 1,213 rushing yards and has nine touchdowns. He’s working on a streak of five consecutive 100-yard games, averaging 196 yards over his last three. FSU is holding teams to 3.54 yards per carry on the ground, so Johnson will get tested. That will put freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya in the spotlight, but he’s been particularly good at home with 14 touchdown passes against only three interceptions. Signs point to this being the end of the run for FSU; combined with the drop from second to third in the playoff rankings, that would knock it out of the semifinal race. But it’s hard to bet against the Seminoles right now. Prediction: Florida State 34, Miami 30 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Neal Burcham replaced injured quarterback Garrett Gilbert to help SMU to a 16-6 win at South Florida in November 2013. What to watch for South Florida (3-6, 2-3 American) has only surpassed 17 points in two games this season, averaging 298 yards per game to rank 122nd nationally. Freshman running back Marlon Mack has been the Bulls’ lone offensive bright spot, rushing for 828 yards and eight touchdowns. SMU (0-8, 0-4) is the lone winless team in the nation, but last week the Mustangs were in it for most of the afternoon at Tulsa and are a completely different team offensively with sophomore Matt Davis at quarterback. He threw for 212 yards and a touchdown and ran for 181 yards and two scores in his first start, helping his team rush for more than in any other two games this year. Chances to win are running out for SMU, but it will win this one to end the nation’s longest active losing streak at 10. Prediction: SMU 30, South Florida 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Maryland beat Michigan State 34-7 in October 1950. What to watch for Michigan State (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten) has to refocus its goals after getting beaten handily at home by Ohio State last week, knocking it out of the playoff race and making a conference title game appearance only possible with an OSU collapse. The Spartans have struggled mightily against the two most effective offenses they’ve faced this year, while otherwise looking good. MSU’s offense hasn’t been an issue, and it moved the ball well against Ohio State. Quarterback Connor Cook has been getting better all season, as has running back Jeremy Langford. Fixing holes on defense and not allowing big plays will be a key down the stretch, especially if the Spartans can still sneak into a New Year’s-level bowl game. Maryland (6-3, 3-2) suffered another major injury-related blow this week with the news that top wide receiver Stefon Diggs has a lacerated kidney and could be done for the year. The Terrapins have been snakebitten in this department, and this is the second major injury in as many seasons to knock out Diggs. Still, being bowl-eligible at this point is a positive sign for the Terps, who have a good chance to get eight wins and a good invitation. This would be a huge leap forward for the program to win here, but as it showed in blowout losses to Ohio State and Nebraska, it’s not ready for the top tier in the Big Ten. Prediction: Michigan 37, Maryland 24 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Anthony Jennings came in for injured quarterback Zach Mettenberger and threw a 49-yard touchdown pass to Travin Dural with 1:15 left in LSU’s 31-27 home win over Arkansas in November 2013. What to watch for LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC) took Alabama to overtime—in actuality, the Tigers were taken there by a late Alabama field goal—but couldn’t come through down the stretch. Alabama stifled their run game, and quarterback Anthony Jennings resumed his old struggles. He completed only eight of 26 passes, and freshman Brandon Harris may take some of his reps. Arkansas (4-5, 0-5) continues to look for that breakthrough win, getting oh-so-close against Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State (losing those games by a combined 15 points) but failing to close the deal. The Razorbacks defense is much improved, and their run game has been efficient all year, but without a consistent pass game they’ve been too one-dimensional. This could be the time, though, with LSU again looking unsettled on offense and very cold weather threatening. Bleacher Report’s Carter Bryant writes that projected temperatures in the 30s will make warm-weather LSU “feel like playing in Antarctica.” The cold just means more running for both teams, which was already going to be the case. Arkansas has been trying to get tricky with its passing of late, and it will pull out some Les Miles-like plays to get the win. Prediction: Arkansas 23, LSU 19 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 10 p.m. ET Last meeting: Brandin Byrd ran for 202 yards and two touchdowns in North Texas’ 41-7 home win over UTEP in November 2013. What to watch for North Texas (3-6, 1-4 Conference USA) ended a four-game losing streak last week by beating Florida Atlantic, but the Mean Green are still a shell of the team they were last season. They rank 113th in total offense, which has kept a good defense from being able to shine. UTEP (5-4, 3-2) is a game away from being bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010, but not having leading rusher Aaron Jones last week hurt in a 35-27 loss at Western Kentucky. Bret Bloomquist of the El Paso Times reported Jones should be back from a knee injury, which could make the Miners a more balanced offense. The Miners can start making bowl plans after this one. Prediction: UTEP 27, North Texas 20 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 10:15 p.m. ET Last meeting: Colin Lockett caught a 10-yard touchdown pass from Quinn Kaehler in overtime to give San Diego State a 34-31 home win over Boise State in November 2013. What to watch for Another huge cross-division game in the Mountain West Conference will have a major impact on which teams play in the league title game next month. San Diego State (5-4, 3-2) is tied for first with Nevada in the West Division but loses out if things remain tied because the Aztecs lost to the Wolf Pack. That’s their only loss in the past month, a stretch where the offense is slowly getting back to form as quarterback Quinn Kaehler returns to full strength after missing time with a shoulder injury. Boise State (7-2, 4-1) is tied for second in the Mountain Division, a half-game behind Colorado State, but the Broncos own the tiebreaker thanks to an early-season win over the Rams. A four-game win streak has seen Boise average 50.8 points per game, including 60 last week at New Mexico. The tandem of quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi has been on a roll of late, and they’ll be the difference for Boise. Prediction: Boise State 37, San Diego State 21 When: Saturday, Nov. 15; 10:45 p.m. ET Last meeting: Marion Grice ran for 118 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona State’s 30-17 home win over Oregon State in November 2013. What to watch for Arizona State (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) made another big leap in the College Football Playoff standings, now sitting as the second runner-up for a semifinal spot where it can hope teams above it falter. The Sun Devils have a relatively light load the next two weeks, with this game and a visit from 3-7 Washington State next week, but with the selection committee watching they’ll need to continue to win impressively. Last week’s game was as much a product of capitalizing on Notre Dame’s mistakes as ASU’s offensive prowess, though quarterback Taylor Kelly continues to get back into form after missing three games with a broken foot. Oregon State (4-5, 1-5) has dropped five of six. The Beavers hit a low last week, losing at home to a Washington State team that featured an untested backup quarterback at the helm. Quarterback Sean Mannion is now the Pac-12’s career passing leader with 12,873 yards, but this season he’s averaging 270.8 yards per game compared to 358.6 per game last season. OSU’s offense just hasn’t gotten into gear, and without being able to keep up with ASU it has no shot here. The atmosphere for a trap game is possible, but the Beavers haven’t played well enough of late to make that realistic. Prediction: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 17 When: Tuesday, Nov. 18; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Matthew Sims kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired as Northern Illinois rallied from a 20-0 deficit to beat Ohio 23-20 in the Mid-American title game in December 2011. What to watch for Northern Illinois (8-2, 5-1 Mid-American) forced a tie atop the West Division with Toledo after knocking off the Rockets at home last week, giving them a chance at a fifth straight division title. Winners of four straight, the Huskies are 12th in the country in rushing at 261.7 yards per game. Ohio (5-5, 3-3) has won two of three to get in line for a sixth straight bowl-eligible season. The Bobcats are 4-1 at home, but haven’t beat NIU since 2009. NIU has been the gold standard in the MAC for quite some time, and will set up a season-ending showdown with Western Michigan next week for the division crown. Prediction: Northern Illinois 37, Ohio 27 When: Tuesday, Nov. 18; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Jawon Chisholm caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Kyle Pohl with 9:49 left to give Akron a 14-13 win at Massachusetts in November 2013. What to watch for Massachusetts (3-7, 3-3) has tripled its win total from a year ago, and now has more victories this season than in its previous two at the FBS level. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel has been the catalyst to the Minutemen’s offense, throwing for 3,345 yards including back-to-back 400-yard games. Akron (4-6, 2-3) won at Pittsburgh earlier this season, but over the last month things have gone south for the Zips. Losers of four straight, they must win out to avoid a ninth straight losing record. Akron can still hit .500, and its remaining games are winnable. Faced with that scenario, it comes through this time. Prediction: Akron 37, Massachusetts 30 When: Wednesday, Nov. 19; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Alonzo Russell’s 11-yard touchdown catch from Terrell Owens with 1:22 left gave Toledo a 28-25 win at Bowling Green in October 2013. What to watch for Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1 Mid-American) locked up the East Division title on Wednesday night against Kent State, and now will get a shot to claim a second consecutive conference title next month. Before then, though, the Falcons can factor into who they’ll see in that championship since Toledo is fighting for the West lead. Toledo (6-4, 5-1) lost at home to Northern Illinois to drop into a tie for the top spot, but its problems go deeper than that. Injuries at the quarterback position forced the Rockets to turn to wide receiver Dwight Macon to play the position last time out. He brought a different dimension to their offense, something that Bowling Green might not be able to gameplan for. The Rockets tend to play better at the Glass Bowl than on the road. Prediction: Toledo 31, Bowling Green 24 When: Wednesday, Nov. 19; 8 p.m. ET Last meeting: Branden Oliver ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns in Buffalo’s 41-21 win at Kent State in October 2013. What to watch for Kent State (1-9, 0-6 Mid-American) was in the MAC title game two years ago, now, it’s headed for its worst season since going 1-10 in 2005. The Golden Flashes have played better of late, but still lost to both Toledo and Bowling Green by 10 points. Buffalo (4-6, 2-4) blew out Akron 55-24 last time out, its first win since firing coach Jeff Quinn in mid-October. The Bulls have good offensive weapons in quarterback Joe Licata and running back Anthone Taylor, but no defense to go with those performers. Buffalo can still get to bowl-eligibility, and now that it’s won for interim coach Alex Wood it will become contagious. Prediction: Buffalo 40, Kent State 23 Statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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