Power Rankings: Kevin Harvick leads us into Homestead
Our Power Rankings are far from a scientific formula. In fact, it’s the perfect blend of analytics and bias against your favorite driver. And you think we dislike your favorite driver, so it makes sense, right? Direct all your complaints to us at [email protected].
1. Kevin Harvick (LW: 5): Is it us, or is Harvick’s performance at Phoenix not getting enough clutchiness run as Brad Keselowski’s win at Talladega? Our theory is because Talladega can be such a crapshoot while Harvick was expected to run well at Phoenix given the way he’s dominatd the track recently. And boy, was his run on Sunday a piece of domination. Harvick will likely have one of the two fastest cars among the four title contenders on Sunday, it’s now a matter of if something will go wrong given the craziness that’s happened to Harvick this year. And if Harvick is fast and does have an issue, Homestead will incredibly overshadow the awesomeness of Phoenix.
2. Joey Logano (LW: 1): Logano, much like Denny Hamlin, had a pit road issue that knocked him back in the pack. And they both were incredibly fluky. In Logano’s case, he left his pit stall while the gas can was still engaged and it skidded across the line of his pit stall and into another one. Logano was penalized for equipment leaving his pit stall. He eventually went a lap down but got it back and fought back to finish sixth. No worse than second-favorite at Homestead, right?
3. Denny Hamlin (LW: 3): Hamlin’s issue was even higher up the fluky scale from Logano’s. After a pit stop early in the race, Hamlin had to come back in after a rear tire was completely falt. He restarted at the end of the field and was stuck in traffic, falling a lap down as well. He spent more time than Logano a lap down, but he ended up finishing a place better on the track in fifth. If you’re a Hamlin fan, we don’t blame you for having dejá vu thoughts about Phoenix 2010 before Hamlin made his way back to the lead lap.
4. Ryan Newman (LW: 4): A pass for 11th place has gotten Newman to this point, and it’s going to be looked at as a pass that possibly sets the standard for a title. Will one of the four drivers be willing to do that to each other to get the title in the late laps on Sunday? And before you think what Newman did was similar to Carl Edwards on Jimmie Johnson in 2008 at Kansas, remember that Edwards was the one bouncing off the wall. Bouncing yourself off the wall going for a win is different than bouncing another driver off the wall.
But bottom line, and something we’ll probably extrapolate on later in the week: If you’re going to blame something for what Newman did Sunday in passing Kyle Larson, blame the environment. Don’t blame Newman.
5. Jeff Gordon (LW: 4): Had Jeff Gordon led a lap on Sunday he would have avoided his fate. Well, it’s not that simple. There’s a chance that Newman plays defense a lot more against Marcos Ambrose and Larson knowing he needs to finish 10th. And while it may seem hard to fathom that Gordon finished second twice in three races and missed the final cut, remember, it’s simply how the points system is structured.
6. Brad Keselowski (LW: 6): Keselowski finished third and fourth in the third round and suffered the same fate as Gordon. And as Keselowski sits on six wins, the only chance of the winningest driver winning the title is if Logano wins the race on Sunday. It’s common knowledge that there have been numerous NASCAR champions who didn’t win the most races in a season. It just seems incredibly incongruous that a driver with fewer top fives than Keselowski has wins is racing for the title in a season in which winning was supposed to take on such great importance.
7. Matt Kenseth (LW: 7): Kenseth and Gordon can commiserate about how bad Texas was to their Chase chances. And while Kenseth would have made the final four without a win (unless he won Phoenix), it’s our guess he wouldn’t be viewed the way Newman’s candidacy for the title is being viewed. Kenseth is fourth in the series in top fives and third in top 10s. Newman is tied for 15th and tied for 11th.
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (LW: 8): Our eighth-place driver stays in eighth after finishing eighth. In the No. 88 car. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THAT HAPPENING? (They aren’t calculable because these rankings are incredibly arbitrary) If we were going to bet on two non-Chase teams going for the strategy play late in the race to grab a win, we’d choose Earnhardt Jr. and Steve Letarte and the No. 14 team and Tony Stewart. If Stewart doesn’t win at Homestead, it’ll be the first Cup season of his career that he hasn’t won in.
9. Carl Edwards (LW: 9): You quickly become an afterthought if you struggle. Edwards was just not fast through the three races of the third round. This comment by Edwards summed up Phoenix nicely:
“Yeah, we tried every trick that we could,” Edwards said. “We just didn’t have a lot of speed all weekend. The car actually drove pretty decently at the end, so I thought Jimmy did a great job with it. We just didn’t have enough speed, so that’s how it goes.”
10. Kyle Larson (LW: 12): Want to know what Larson thought about Newman’s move? Here’s what he said in a statement to MRN:
“Coming to the finish, there were a lot of cars racing really hard. I knew (Newman) was right around me and knew he needed to gain some spots to keep from getting eliminated from the Chase.
“It’s a little upsetting he pushed me up to the wall, but I completely understand the situation he was in and can’t fault him for being aggressive there. I think a lot of drivers out here would have done something similar if they were in that position.”
11. Kyle Busch (LW: 10): We’re dropping Busch a spot after his spin and then shearing by Clint Bowyer’s car. Bowyer simply hit him at a perfect angle to rip the front end off Busch’s car. Busch finished 34th. And thanks to NASCAR resetting all Chase-eliminated drivers back to the same points system, Busch is ahead of Edwards even despite the bad Phoenix finish.
12. Jimmie Johnson (LW: 9): Phoenix is a yo-yo for Jimmie Johnson. In 2010, he took advantage of Denny Hamlin’s fuel strategy, stretched his fuel and won. In 2012, he lost a tire and hit the wall, paving the way for Brad Keselowski to win the title. In 2013, Matt Kenseth struggled, which made Johnson’s Homestead race a coronation. In 2014? Well, Johnson was in the wall again, a week after winning at Texas.
Lucky Dog: Was Sunday the final time Marcos Ambrose finishes in the top 10 in the Cup Series?
The DNF: Austin Dillon completed 283 of 312 laps. It’s the smallest percentage of laps Dillon has completed in a race all season.
Dropped out: None
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
