NFL Predictions Week 11: Early Odds, Picks and Projections for Upcoming … – Bleacher Report
A Week 11 headlined by Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck is destined to give bettors a hard time.
That showdown in particular leads the charge of what is a very difficult schedule to navigate for bettors who only wish for things to get easier as the contenders set themselves apart from the pretenders.
Such separation has occurred to a degree, but teams continue to flirt with erratic play. Look at Pittsburgh, which got 12 touchdowns over the course of two weeks from Ben Roethlisberger, only to fall flat last week against the two-win New York Jets.
So it goes this season. In perhaps the most difficult week to date, those who start work on the slate early will stand a chance. With that in mind, the full week and some tips can be found below.
NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread
Matchup | Spread | Pick ATS | Reason |
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13) | MIA -5 | MIA | Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league’s best pass defenses. |
Minnesota at Chicago | CHI -3 | MIN | Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare. |
Houston at Cleveland | CLE -3 | CLE | Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy. |
Seattle at Kansas City | SEA -1 | SEA | See analysis below. |
Atlanta at Carolina | CAR -1.5 | CAR | Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league. |
Cincinnati at New Orleans | NO -7 | NO | Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome. |
Tampa Bay at Washington | WAS -7 | WAS | The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams. |
Denver at St. Louis | DEN -9.5 | DEN | Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete. |
San Francisco at NY Giants | SF -4.5 | SF | New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it. |
Oakland at San Diego | SD -11 | OAK | Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent. |
Philadelphia at Green Bay | GB -5.5 | GB | Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well. |
Detroit at Arizona | ARI -2 | DET | A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit. |
New England at Indianapolis | IND -2.5 | NE | A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire. |
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17) | PIT -5.5 | PIT | See analysis below. |
Source: ESPN, odds via Odds Shark.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of noon ET on Nov. 11.
Week 11 Spreads to Avoid
Seattle (-1) at Kansas City
This week’s spread that is a must-avoid regardless of how the line shifts goes to a cross-conference encounter between the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs.
In fact, naming two more erratic, unpredictable teams this season would be just as difficult as attempting to play this line.
The defending champs are just 6-3 and have actually dropped a game at home. One loss came against three-win St. Louis. Kansas City has been blown out by Buffalo but blew out New England. Both teams seem evenly matched in terms of the running game, too—not just in terms of consistency.
Kansas City is led by a pair of talented backs, one a household name and the other who will soon share that status.
ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | |
Jamaal Charles | 113 | 533 | 4.7 | 6 |
Knile Davis | 106 | 411 | 3.9 | 4 |
ESPN
Seattle is more of a one-man show with Marshawn Lynch, who just last week bruised his way to 140 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He may be able to find some success against a Chiefs defense that ranks 19th against the rush.
Then again, the defending champs have a habit of coming out flat on the road. Should the Seahawks fall behind early, there is going to be little room for Russell Wilson to navigate through the air against the league’s top pass defense.
In a run-first affair, the team that can usually hit on a few key plays through the air emerges the victor. Guess what? Both teams are evenly matched here, too.
Wilson completes roughly 62 percent of his passes and has 11 touchdowns to five interceptions. Alex Smith completes just around 65 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns to four interceptions.
The two teams are not twins, but it sure feels like it. That would explain why this might just be the most difficult line of the year.
Recent performances say to roll with the Seahawks because of Lynch, but the better play is none at all.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Chiefs 14
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Tennessee
Roethlisberger and the Steelers got a slot in the intro for good reason.
Burn bettors once, and they certainly develop trust issues. With this Steelers team, it makes sense. Remember that this is the same Steelers team that also lost in Week 4 to 1-8 Tampa Bay on a last-second touchdown.
So, yes, the 2-7 Tennessee Titans certainly have a shot in Week 11. Especially when one takes into account this nugget provided by Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
#Steelers are now 8-10 against teams with losing records the time they played them since 2012. Blame who you want, but facts are facts.
— Mark Kaboly (@MarkKaboly_Trib) November 9, 2014
With that in mind, it is important to note that the Titans will continue to roll with rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Just last week, the LSU product was ho-hum at best with a 16-of-27 line for 179 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Gail Burton/Associated Press
A stingy Tennessee defense that ranks 11th against the pass may be able to take advantage of an erratic Roethlisberger, too, as he is just one week removed from tossing a pair of ugly interceptions.
The stigma that the Steelers cannot shake iffy turnovers against lowly competition rang true last week, as coach Mike Tomlin told the media.
“There’s nothing mystical about the outcome of that football game,” Tomlin told The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com). “We talked all week about why that team struggled: because they were minus in the turnover ratio. … Well, they weren’t today. They were plus-four.”
Then again, Pittsburgh could come out angry and Roethlisberger could carelessly flick another six touchdown passes.
Prime time has been a torrid affair for bettors this year, and this Monday Night Football showcase is one to avoid at all costs.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Titans 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.
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