“They are who we thought they were!”
Ah. One of my favorite quotes of all time. Better than “Diddly poo.” Better than “Coulda, woulda, shoulda.” Better than “Hello! You play to win the game.” Even better than “Playoffs? Playoffs? You kiddin’ me? Playoffs?”
Now granted, three of the previous four were from the same person, and anyone who spent any time as a Saints fan in the late 1980s and early ’90s knows Jim Mora could come up with some good ones. (He kept it rolling with Indy in the late ’90s.) And Herm Edwards still says you play to win the game. Duh.
But I digress.
Dennis Green was right: The Bears are who we thought they were. The Giants unquestionably are who we thought they were. The Buccaneers are miserable and who we thought they were. The Raiders are trying their young hearts out, but they are who we thought they were. The Panthers are most definitely who we thought they were. (Insert clip on nose here.)
Problem is no one is letting them off the hook. Now, if only your friendly prognosticator can remember this. I actually made a friendly wager with a guy the other day the Raiders will win a game this season. Ugh.
I will make this solemn vow: I will not pick any of these bums until they prove they aren’t who we thought they were. (However, I can’t promise I won’t pick them against the spread. Dang linesmakers keep throwing out the bait, and I keep chomping on that shiny spinning thingy.)
However, we took great strides forward Sunday and had a winning (but unspectacular) week straight up and ATS.
Progress, my friends. Progress.
Let’s keep moving forward.
(Weekly, overall picks results for Jim Derry and top readers listed at bottom. CONGRATS to CHAS BECNEL and ROBERT VOLPE for being the Week 11 winners and to STEVEN RAWLINS, the overall leader among readers for the third consecutive week.)
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WEEK 10 PICKS (home team in bold):
16 points: NO PICK due to byes. Record: 2-1.
15 points: NO PICK due to byes. Record: 4-2.
THE “SURE THINGS”
14 points: SAN DIEGO over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
The Chargers are in a must-win situation, while the Raiders are on the road to the first pick of next year’s NFL draft. Although this is one of the rougher weeks in suicide pool land, I feel safe that San Diego off a bye should be able to win this one going away. This spread has jumped from 8 to 10.5 in two days. A rare case where I’ll give the double digits. Against the spread: San Diego minus-10.5.
Last week: NO PICK due to byes. Record: 5-2.
13 points: DENVER over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon
Interestingly, Peyton Manning showed a human side early in last week’s trouncing of Oakland when it appeared as if the Broncos might prove that “never pick against a home dog in a division game” theory. Then he turned back into Peyton Manning, and the rest was history. While playing at St. Louis has been a trap for some, it would be shocking if Manning fell for what the Rams are selling. Against the spread: Denver minus-9.5.
Last week: Baltimore over Tennessee (W). Record: 7-3. ATS, Ravens -9.5 (W)
FAIRLY SAFE
12 points: GREEN BAY over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
So Mark Sanchez looked fantastic, you say. So the Eagles look like they might be the best team in the NFC, you say. They don’t need no stinkin’ Nick Foles, you say. So the Philly defense is the shiznit, you say. OK, so you have never said “shiznit” in your life. But if you think Philly is good enough to go into Lambeau with temps in the low 20s and a Packers team that has been rejuvenated, you might want to switch your drink over to hot chocolate. Against the spread: Green Bay minus-4.5.
Last week: Denver over Oakland (W). Record: 10-0. ATS, Raiders -11.5 (L)
11 points: NEW ORLEANS over CINCINNATI, Sunday at noon
I promise I won’t bring up the flop or talk about Drew Brees’ turnovers or a defense that allows a receiver to get 20 yards behind its safety. However, what I will talk about is how bad the Bengals have played after opening up the first three weeks as one of the AFC’s best. Cincinnati is about to begin a road tour after spending four of five weeks at home. Sounds like just the sort of medicine the host Saints need in the NFC South chase to see who is the first to get to eight wins. Warning: More than 80 percent of legal wagers have been on New Orleans thus far. Yep, I’m taking that bait, too. Big day for Mark Ingram against the 31st-ranked run defense. Against the spread: New Orleans minus-7.5.
Last week: Seattle over NY Giants (W). Record: 6-4. ATS, Seahawks -9.5 (W)
10 points: SAN FRANCISCO over NY GIANTS, Sunday at noon
Speaking of bad run defenses, the only unit worse than the aforementioned Bengals is the Giants. Of course, the G-men have been pretty poor in just about every category. The 49ers seem bound and determined to quiet the critics, and while it’ll be a while before said critics settle down, expect Jim Harbaugh to pound the football all day long. Not a good week to play against Frank Gore in fantasy football. Against the spread: San Francisco minus-4.5 (the favorite train keeps rolling on).
Last week: Dallas over Jacksonville (W). Record: 7-3. ATS, Jaguars +7.5 (L)
OUT ON A LIMB
9 points: WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
With Robert Griffin III back in the fold, some say the Redskins are the worse for wear. Horse feathers. By no means is this team a world-beater, but they can handle the 29th-ranked overall defense. However, the Skins shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown to anyone, anywhere, and have only covered once in their past six games. The Bucs, meanwhile, have covered three consecutive on the road. Close game, high scoring (in the upper 20s/low 30s). Against the spread: Tampa Bay plus-7.5.
Last week: Green Bay over Chicago (W). Record: 7-3. ATS, Packers -7.5 (W)
8 points: ATLANTA over CAROLINA, Sunday at noon
One win on the road doesn’t mean the Falcons are back on track, but all of a sudden 3-6 means they’re back in the NFC South race. One thing for sure is it appears as if Carolina can’t win anywhere. Both teams have poor offensive lines, but the big difference is Matt Ryan and the Atlanta receivers, who will have a field day against this horrendous secondary. Against the spread: Atlanta plus-1.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over NY Jets (L). Record: 5-5. ATS, Jets +4.5 (W)
7 points: HOUSTON over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
It’s so tough to judge the inconsistent Browns, but one fact that jumps off the page is the stat they are 28th against the run, allowing 134 yards per game. Although he might not be fully healthy Arian Foster is expected to play, and that’s bad news for Cleveland, which might have fooled some with a big win over a struggling division rival on the road last week in Cincinnati. Against the spread: Houston plus-3.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over Cleveland (L). Record: 8-2. ATS, Bengals -6.5 (L)
YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN
6 points: PITTSBURGH over TENNESSEE, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
Why is this game on Monday Night Football? Howard Cosell is rolling over in his grave. He wouldn’t have even shown highlights of this game at halftime back in the day. Sigh. OK, back to football. The Steelers are the Jekyll and Hyde of the NFL for sure, and last week wasn’t so hard to see coming. But they’re not going to do it two weeks in a row. (You see how much faith I have here, right? Ha.) I said don’t pick the Steelers in a suicide pool last week, and while I feel more comfortable in them this week than last, I’d probably choose someone else if at all possible. Yeah, I know it’s Week 11 and your choices are highly limited. Against the spread: Pittsburgh minus-5.5.
Last week: New Orleans over San Francisco (L … Can you say flop? Oh wait, I said I wasn’t going to mention that.). Record: 6-4. ATS, Saints -4.5 (L)
5 points: INDIANAPOLIS over NEW ENGLAND, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
This one is going to be fun. So often, marquee matchups end up being letdowns, but I think this is different. The Young Gun against the sure-fire Hall of Famer. Throughout the years, the veteran normally comes out on top, but the NFL has changed, and I just don’t want to bet against Andrew Luck. Not only have the Colts been magnificent most of the season, they have covered seven out of nine times this season. This is the best team they have faced since the opener at Denver, but New England isn’t the same team on the road. Against the spread: Indianapolis minus-2.5.
Last week: Arizona over St. Louis (W). Record: 7-3. ATS, Cardinals -7.5 (W)
4 points: KANSAS CITY over SEATTLE, Sunday at noon
I’ve said it many weeks prior, but it’s obvious something isn’t right with Seattle. (Except Marshawn Lynch, that is. Sheesh, he killed me in fantasy football last week!) Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a steady group led by Alex Smith and Andy Reid. I put very little stock in Seattle’s win last week over a porous Giants team, while I increasingly have more and more faith in KC. Also, the Chiefs have covered seven out of the past eight weeks. Like I said, steady. Against the spread: Kansas City even.
Last week: Kansas City over Buffalo (W). Record: 5-5. ATS, Chiefs -1.5 (W)
3 points: DETROIT over ARIZONA, Sunday at noon
I know I have short-changed the Cardinals in the past, and I think Bruce Arians is the clear-cut leader for Coach of the Year honors. But Arizona is going to have such a tough time against this defense, and with Calvin Johnson back, that swings the pendulum back toward the Lions. If they want to be one of the big boys, they have to win TOUGH games on the road. Doesn’t get much tougher. Against the spread: Detroit plus-1.5.
Last week: Tampa Bay over Atlanta (L). Record: 8-2. ATS, Bucs even (L)
2 points: MIAMI over BUFFALO, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
I’m not 100-percent sure I made this choice because I have been dogging on Miami or because I think I’m too high on Buffalo. Whatever the case, I don’t hold much confidence in this pick, but I am giving a slight nod to the Dolphins defense. One thing I love is the under-42. Obviously, this is a big game in the chase for a wild-card spot in the AFC. Against the spread: Buffalo plus-4.5.
Last week: Carolina over Philadelphia (L). Record: 5-5. ATS, Panthers +6.5 (L)
1 point: MINNESOTA over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
Although they clearly have more talent, how can a sane person pick the Bears against anyone right now? Sure, their backs are up against the wall and they’re in a must-win, but I don’t think that matters. With all the talent he possesses, Jay Cutler isn’t more than a head case. And I’m sticking to my word – I’m not picking the Bears until they show signs of life. Against the spread: Vikings plus-3.5.
Last week: Detroit over Miami (W). Record: 6-4. ATS, Lions -2.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Tuesday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 8-5. Season: 98-49 (.667).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 7-6. Season: 60-55 (.522). (Didn’t start ATS picks until Week 3.)
POINT TOTALS
Week 10: 65/91 possible points. Weekly rank: T31 out of 75. Overall: 799/1,161. Overall rank: 11 of 183.
Week 10 READERS leader: Chas Becnel and Robert Volpe, 74/91.
Overall READERS leader: Steven Rawlins, 847/1,161.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 10: 8-5 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 5-8 ATS
Week 8: 11-4 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 7: 10-5 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 6: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 5: 13-2 straight up, 7-8 ATS
Week 4: 10-3 straight up, 10-3 ATS
Week 3: 10-6 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 2: 11-5 straight up, no picks ATS
Week 1: 10-6 straight up, no picks ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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