Palm: CFP committee has a TCU-Baylor issue

Gary Patterson is making TCU’s case to be ranked over Baylor. (USATSI)

When projecting rankings from week-to-week, sometimes a team can win and still move down. That is the case for TCU this week. The Horned Frogs were very impressive in beating Kansas State on Saturday, but they still fell out of the projected final four. That’s because Baylor eviscerated Oklahoma in Norman. Because of that win, Baylor is now the projected favorite in the Big 12.

Both teams figure to be favored in the rest of their games, but a tie for the league title would be broken by the head-to-head result. Baylor handed TCU its only loss. The CFP selection committee may not jump Baylor over TCU this week, but at some point, if both teams keep winning, they will.

Oregon Ducks: Oregon looked like a threat to drop from the rankings as well, but it was Utah who dropped the ball instead. The Ducks pulled away late for a comfortable win and clinched the North Division title and a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.

Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama remarkably survivied at LSU and the Tide is now done with the road portion of their schedule. The SEC West title will go through Tuscaloosa. Mississippi State and Auburn play there before the season is over and either Alabama will win the division title at home or someone will have beat them there to take it from them.

Auburn Tigers: Auburn is no longer a threat to make the playoff though. With a brutal road schedule this season, the last thing the Tigers could afford was a home loss, but that is what happened on Saturday. Texas A&M beat Auburn at Jordan Hare, giving the Tigers their second loss and effectively ending their chances to make the playoffs.

Auburn also fell out of the CFP host bowl projections, replaced by Baylor.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State is the new favorite in the Big Ten race, but seems unlikely to put together a good enough resume to warrant a playoff spot. The Buckeyes non-conference schedule was mediocre, and the league isn’t good enough to help them overcome that. Also, they lost at home to Virginia Tech, easily the worst loss of anyone in consideration.

Final thoughts: Playoff chances also died for Notre Dame and Michigan State, both of whom lost big.

I’m not ready to entirely rule out a two-loss team in the playoff this year. There’s still a lot of football left to play, but the most likely candidate for such a spot would be an 11-2 SEC champion.

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