Week 10 NFL Picks: Lions will end Miami hot streak, Cutler to struggle – CBSSports.com

Matthew Stafford will help stop the Dolphins. (USATSI)

Each week, we’ll take the best — and most clever — odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no impact, what’s the point of watching sports at all?

Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread, and all statistics only include the regular season.

Game One: Lions -3.5 vs. Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-4	Overall: 5-3
Home: 2-2	Home: 2-2
Away: 2-2	Away: 3-1

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 9th	Pass defense: 2nd
Rush offense: 30th	Rush defense: 12th
Pass defense: 5th	Pass offense: 18th
Rush defense: 2nd	Rush offense: 4th

Verdict: Two of the hotter teams in the NFL face off — both are on three-game winning streaks — and if anything, the majority of my CBSSports.com colleagues believe in Miami. Which isn’t surprising, considering the Dolphins are coming off a 37-0 destruction of the Chargers and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming off one of the best games of his career. But here’s why I like the Lions. Their top-notch defense will slow down Miami, and Detroit’s offense has proven it can play at a high level even without the contributions of Calvin Johnson. The fact they’re coming off a bye week leads me to believe the Lions will be ready to take this one.

Game Two: Packers -7.5 vs. Bears
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-3-1	Overall: 3-5
Home: 2-0-1	Home: 0-3
Away: 2-3	Away: 3-2

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 13th	Pass defense: 23rd
Rush offense: 23rd	Rush defense: 13th
Pass defense: 9th	Pass offense: 11th
Rush defense: 31st	Rush offense: 18th

Verdict: Anybody care to take a guess at Bears quarterback Jay Cutler‘s career record vs. the Packers? It’s a robust 1-9 (all but one game in a Chicago uniform) to go with a 56.8 completion percentage, 218.4 passing yards per game, 13 touchdowns, 19 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 67.0. For those who typically don’t trust Cutler, this game is a great example of continuing that mindset. For those who typically do trust Cutler, you might want to avoid watching this contest. Go with the Packers.

Game Three (largest spread of week): Raiders +11.5 vs. Broncos
Monday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

2014 Against The Spread
Overall: 4-4	Overall: 4-4
Home: 1-3	Home: 3-2
Away: 3-1	Away: 1-2

2014 Team Rankings
Pass offense: 22nd	Pass defense: 21st
Rush offense: 31st	Rush defense: 1st
Pass defense: 10th	Pass offense: 2nd
Rush defense: 26th	Rush offense: 26th

Verdict: Like I wrote last week, I’ll usually take a Peyton Manning-led squad to cover whatever point spread the Broncos are facing. It burned me last week — just like I figured it might, even though I still stupidly went with the Broncos to cover vs. the Patriots — but it won’t this week. Even though the Raiders are 0-8, they’ve actually played not so terribly this season with Derek Carr at quarterback. Shouldn’t matter this week. The Broncos, coming off a loss, will dominate the Raiders in Oakland.

Prop bets

Total passing yards Week 10 — Mark Sanchez

Over/Under 250½

For the first time since Week 15 in 2012, Sanchez will get a start at quarterback. And it’ll be in primetime Monday night. Considering Nick Foles has passed for more than 250 yards four times this season (he also had a 248-yard day) and considering the Panthers are below average in passing defense, I’ll go with the over here.

Will Ben Roethlisberger throw 6 or more TD passes Week 10? (Note: Ben Roethlisberger threw for 6 TDs in each of the last two weeks with zero interceptions.)

Yes 20/1

Love, love, love this prop bet. And I desperately need to improve my prop winning percentage. So, I’m, um, going to go with no.

Last week: 2-1 against the spread; 1-1 on prop bets. This season: 15-12 against the spread; 8-13 on prop bets. Last three seasons: 71-75 against the spread; 58-48-1 on prop bets.

See my picks and all the CBSSports.com experts here.

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