NFL against the spread picks: Is this a must win for the 49ers? – Yahoo Sports (blog)
Nothing is determined after nine games, unless you’re the Oakland Raiders or Jacksonville Jaguars.
The San Francisco 49ers are 4-4. They could certainly get on a roll and make the playoffs no matter what happens this week, maybe even win the division. But it sure seems like this week at the New Orleans Saints is a make-or-break game for them.
Realistically, where are the 49ers going if they fall to 4-5? You’d be looking at being two losses behind Dallas and Seattle for the final wild-card spot, with a remaining schedule that includes another game against Arizona, two against Seattle and another against San Diego. If the 49ers need to get to 10-6 to make the playoffs, could they weather a loss at New Orleans and then go 6-1 against that schedule the rest of the way? Based on what they showed in the first half, I wouldn’t think so.
The problem is that the Saints morph into the 1989 49ers at home. The Saints are 24-5-1 against the spread in their last 30 games as home favorites, according to OddsShark.com. They’re nearly unbeatable at the Superdome and meh elsewhere, in one of the most extreme splits you’ll find for a team.
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So will the 49ers pull off the upset, or at least cover the five-point spread? I say no to either. And if they don’t win we’re looking at the 49ers possibly having to win six of their last seven to make the playoffs. That would make an already tense atmosphere around the 49ers ratchet up even more.
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 10:
Bengals (-6) over Browns (picked Thursday): Oh, Andy.
Bills (+2) over Chiefs: Two teams that are playing pretty good football. Bills fans are smart, and desperate to make the playoffs. They know what this game means for that. It will be an excellent home crowd, and that swings it in Buffalo’s favor. (A caveat: If Sammy Watkins is inactive this pick changes to the Chiefs.)
Dolphins (+2.5) over Lions: I like the way the Dolphins are playing. Unlike the Saints and Falcons games, I don’t think the Lions can play poorly and wait for the opponent to give the game away.
Jets (+5) over Steelers: When I see a line like this, the only thing I can think is, “Who is betting on the Jets?” The oddsmakers hung this line knowing full well that every casual bettor in the world was taking the red-hot Steelers, right? The line is so obvious I’m going the other way. That’s it. No football angle. Just the belief that if the books are begging you to bet one way, it’s safe to be on their side.
Falcons (-2.5) over Buccaneers: I’d feel bad about myself placing actual money on either of these horrendous teams. But we pick every game here, and I’d feel even worse about myself if I picked Josh McCown.
Cowboys (“off”) over Jaguars: As of this moment, it’s the rare freebie in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick ’em! The line hasn’t been set because we’re not sure of Tony Romo. If a line is set I’ll tweet out my pick, because quite clearly there’s someone in America besides me who cares about the accuracy of my terrible record.
Ravens (-9.5) over Titans: The Ravens have a clear personality. They destroy bad teams and lose to good ones (I’d argue the Steelers were a bad team early in the season when Baltimore beat them, and a good team when they beat the Ravens last week … hey, that sums up the NFL in 2014) , so I’m riding that trend.
Raiders (+11.5) over Broncos: After a couple big games, I’m not sure the Broncos will really be all that fired up for this one. Or, they are hacked off about the Patriots loss and take it out on the Raiders. Could see it either way. (A side note: The old “home underdog” angle has done nothing this year. Home underdogs are just 17-21 against the spread, according to OddsShark.com’s closing numbers. That trend – and most trends – aren’t predictive, just a reminder that it stinks to be riding home dogs this year.)
Cardinals (-7) over Rams: After the Rams beat the Seahawks, they looked horrendous the next week in a 34-7 loss at Kansas City. It would be just like the Jeff Fisher Rams to follow up a win at the 49ers last week with an egg here.
Seahawks (-9) over Giants: I can’t and won’t say Seattle is playing well. The Seahawks haven’t covered in four straight games and really haven’t looked like a championship team since Week 1 (maybe also in that win over Washington in Week 5 … maybe). But I really do think they will be that team at some point. At home against a bad Giants team seems like a great place to start.
Bears (+7) over Packers: The Bears are coming off a bye, they’ll be on a national stage and everyone knows that if they fall to 3-6 it’s practically over. At the very least, you’ll be getting a desperate effort from the Bears in this one.
Eagles (-6.5) over Panthers: #TeamSanchize
Last week: 8-5
Season-to-date: 65-68
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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