Spread Options: Dr. Saturday’s Week 11 picks against the spread
Oh, the things we would give for back-to-back weeks above .500. After going 5-5 last week, the tally is 42-57-1 on the year.
Iowa at Minnesota (OVER 44), Noon, ET: Before two weeks ago, Minnesota would seem to be the pick here because the Gophers are at home. But after the loss to Illinois, it’s tough to pick Minnesota. Iowa’s offense has also exploded over the last three games, scoring at least 31 points in each. This game is a pick’em for a reason. Take the over.
Georgia at Kentucky (+10), Noon, ET: Raise your hand if you have faith in Georgia after what happened in Jacksonville last week. OK, we see you, Bulldogs fans. Put them down. Kentucky’s only home loss this season was to Mississippi State, a game that was close until those Bulldogs salted it away late. If Georgia is to win and cover, QB Hutson Mason is going to have to throw the ball down the field.
Baylor (+5) at Oklahoma, Noon, ET: Baylor’s plan is to win this game and then root like hell for Kansas State against TCU, knowing that the Bears and Wildcats meet on the final week of the season. We’ll fully admit that the confidence in Baylor winning this game isn’t incredibly high, but it’s hard to see Oklahoma blowing out the Bears. Baylor will not self-destruct with penalties like it did in Morgantown, and QB Bryce Petty and RB Shock Linwood will have good days against Oklahoma’s defense.
Duke (-3.5) at Syracuse, 12:30 ET: We’re going to ride the Duke train as long as we can. The Blue Devils are on track for a rematch with Florida State in the ACC title game and an 11-1 regular season. There’s no derailing that this week. Syracuse is likely down to its third-string QB, Austin Wilson. Terrel Hunt has a broken leg and A.J. Long is having numbness in his throwing arm.
West Virginia (-3) at Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET: While the Mountaineers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to TCU at home, Texas demolished Texas Tech on the road. But Texas Tech was down to a walk-on QB and, well, the Red Raiders simply aren’t good. Texas needs a really good game from QB Tyrone Swoopes to have a chance as the defense won’t be able to shut down West Virginia. The likeliness of Texas’ offense performing well is why we like West Virginia.
Iowa State (-3.5) at Kansas, 3:30 p.m. ET: This is both teams’ best chance for a conference win this season. And it may be a game that decides the fate of both coaches as well. ISU’s Paul Rhoads would find the seat he’s on incredibly toasty if the Cyclones lose to Kansas, and if interim coach Clint Bowen wants a shot at the permanent position in charge of the Jayhawks, he needs to win this game, especially at home. While KU isn’t as brutal as it has been, ISU is the better team.
Washington State at Oregon State (-8), 4 p.m. ET: An intriguing game between quarterbacks Connor Halliday and Sean Mannion is now missing Halliday after the gruesome injury he suffered against USC. While Oregon State has been a shell this season of what it was in the first half of 2013, the 4-4 Beavers absolutely need this game for any hopes of bowl eligibility.
UCLA at Washington (+6.5), 7 p.m. ET: We incorrectly picked Arizona with the points against UCLA last week, but the Bruins isn’t fazing us. This is actually a straight-up upset pick too. Both teams have battled inconsistency this season and since Washington is at home, we’re giving the Huskies the edge.
Kansas State at TCU (-6), 7:30 p.m. ET: We wrote about the battle of turnovers that’s likely to decide the game earlier in the week, and our hunch is that Kansas State commits a costly one. The Wildcats are extremely good at protecting the ball and it would be very Bill Snyder-esque if TCU thoroughly outgains Kansas State and the Wildcats win. But Trevone Boykin is the best player on the field and this will be his Heisman moment.
Ohio State at Michigan State (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET: Ohio State’s reputation is perhaps being unfairly criticized because its lone loss is to Virginia Tech, a team that has played incredibly poorly of late. However, that’s not why we’re picking against OSU here. Michigan State’s offense is better than it was in 2013 thanks to the improvement of Connor Cook, and Ohio State’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2013. While J.T. Barrett will have some success against MSU’s defense, Cook is the difference in a relatively easy win for the Spartans.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
