One-Week Fantasy: FanDuel Bargain Bin Week 10
Thursday, November 06, 2014
Week 10 is shaping up to be an interesting fantasy week, though aren’t they all by Monday night? I find myself leaning more toward a stars and scrubs style lineup this week, even in cash games. That makes finding the right value plays all the more important. Here you’ll find the cheapest viable plays I like at each position for Week 10.
QB
Derek Carr ($6800): This price is a tad too high for Carr. He has three single digit fantasy point games this season in which he threw for less than 200 yds. In two of those, he didn’t throw a TD. He has a single 300+ yard game and just three multi-TD games. The Raiders are not good, and that’s reflected in their generous +11.5 point spread vs Denver this week. Denver, however, gives up fantasy points to almost anyone. The only really bad performance against them came at the questionable hands of Drew Stanton. I’m not giving the Broncos D credit for that 4.72 fpt game. Even Geno Smith got 15 fpts against them. Oakland’s pass blocking rates in the top 10 per PFF, while Denver’s pass rush is just average. I think Carr is the best value QB for Week 10 in what should be a high scoring, garbage time affair.
Advice: The other starters in our price range for this article would be Josh McCown ($5700), Zach Mettenberger ($6100), Brian Hoyer ($6300), and Blake Bortles ($6300). I’m not using any of them in my lineups. McCown faces the Falcons that decimated him and the Bucs the last time he played. He comes in cold to an offense that was seemingly starting to click with Glennon. I don’t get it. Hoyer is probably safe, but it is a Thursday night game and he’ll face a Bengals offense that should have their passing game back might limit his chances. He’s also without TE Jordan Cameron again on the short week and the Browns’ O line is still poor. Mettenberger might be an okay GPP play. I’m targeting Tennessee receivers a little bit, but I don’t think I’m letting a lineup rest on Mettenberger’s shoulders yet. Bortles is in London vs the Cowboys. He has been solid enough the past four weeks to warrant discount QB consideration for cash games, but the game being overseas vs a very different Cowboys team without Romo is making me think twice. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and others have such good matchups this weekend it’s really hard not to spend at QB for me. Even in the mid-range, you have Matt Ryan and Cam Newton whom I like a lot to bounce back this week.
RB
Jeremy Hill ($6800): He didn’t let us down last week and I consider him an equally good play this week, even at this salary, if you’re playing slates including Thursday. He went for 154 and 2 TDs in Week 9 vs the Jaguars. It’s possible that the Browns are nearly as good of a matchup, ranking in top 10 fpts allowed to RB (ESPN) and rating in the bottom half of the league for run defense per PFF. Hill, on the other hand, is making the most of his limited work thus far in 2014, with 0.65 fpts/touch (PFF). He’s pricier than last week, but should still pay off nicely.
Justin Forsett/Lorenzo Taliaferro ($6500/6300): I’m confident that a Ravens RB will be good this weekend. Which one is harder to predict. The past two weeks, these two have both been involved almost equally in the passing game. Forsett is getting more carries and yards on the ground, while Taliaferro has scored 2 TDs. In terms of fpts/opportunity, Taliaferro blows Forsett away, 0.7 to 0.45, but opportunities are a necessary part of fantasy football. Forsett is the safer play, Taliaferro is the upside play. Going against the weak Tennessee defense, it’s possible they both have value this week.
Advice: It’s tempting to look to TB for the RB facing the Falcons, but that is a messy situation. I’d guess Bobby Rainey ($6700), but Charles Sims might be the sneaky upside play ($4800). Hopefully we’ll have more information by Sunday to take advantage of the plus matchup here. Davonta Freeman and Isaiah Crowell also stand out as guys that could break out this week, but without evidence that they’ll be seeing the ball more, I can’t recommend them. I’m avoiding the cheap plays from Buffalo, St Louis, and Tennessee as well.
WR
James Jones ($5400): For the same reason I like Carr, I like Jones. He’s priced $1000 less than teammate Andre Holmes, but in every other respect they’re the same fantasy WR. Both are averaging 10 fpts/game, both have one great game and a couple 3-5 pt games under their belts. They’ve been playing a similar number of snaps. Holmes has one more TD than Jones on the season, but if you want exposure to this garbage time, I mean game, I can’t see paying up for Holmes.
Justin Hunter ($5400): Last week Hunter had four receptions, one for a TD. It wasn’t a huge fantasy day, but it was a good sign that Mettenberger looked for him 10 times. While expectations on the 6’4″ 200 lb WR have been high all year, he’s gone through three QBs on an offense where scoring happens pretty rarely. That makes it hard to use him for DFS, but on the plus side, the Titans face the Ravens this week. Despite overall having one of the best defenses in the league, Baltimore bleeds fantasy points to opposing WRs. Of the teams playing this week, only TB is worse. The low price tag with the good matchup coming off the Bye is enough for me to buy into Hunter again.
Advice: Another cheap play I like is Stevie Johnson ($5500). This should be a high scoring and close game in NO. He’s been very efficient with his limited targets so far, averaging 8.5 fpts/game with 3TDs. He’s a cheap way to get in on this game. It’s nice to see Mike Evans‘ price shot up, sort of. He’s been one of my favorites for this space, but at $6600, I’m not buying with Josh McCown under center. Davante Adams, another fave, is very much in play at $5200. I alluded to my Rodgers love earlier. Again, Adams is a dirt cheap way to access some of that GB power.
TE
Larry Donnell ($5300): Here’s hoping he sneaks into Preston Parker‘s jersey and steals some of those wasted targets from Monday night. Donnell did catch a TD in that game, and now gets Seattle, the league’s 4th most generous defense to TE. They’ve given up 10 TDs, just one fewer than the Jets. Larry Donnell can catch 3 TDs in a single game, lest you forget. I’m not expecting that, but one or two is not out of the question here.
Lance Kendricks ($4700): This is purely the matchup with Arizona driving me. Austin Davis has struggled but when they get in the red zone, he seems to look to Kendricks often. He has 4 TDs so far, on just 17 receptions! This is by no means a volume play, just a bet that if the Rams score, it’ll be at the hands of Kendricks. Jared Cook ($4800) probably makes the better volume play, but where TDs are king, I’m using Kendricks.
Advice: I have Donnell in a few lineups so far. Jimmy Graham is the TE you want to spend on if you can do it. It’s hard to trust anyone in the second tier either, so I’m fine with punting TE this week. Another interesting option is Mychal Rivera, who has 15 receptions and 2TDs in his last two games ($5700). All the Raiders. Oh dear.
Defense
Carolina ($4500): They will take on the Mark Sanchez led Eagles. The end. They’re truly a punt, minimum salary option. Which is funny, because as recently as 3-4 weeks ago, they were still FanDuel’s top priced D. I can’t say much good about the Panthers’ actual defensive prowess, except that their 16 takeaways are tied for 5th in the league. Which brings me back to Sanchez and his generosity when it comes to giveaways…
Advice: Some people will be on Atlanta after they exploded against TB the last time these teams met, but probably not I. Of course, it’s a little ironic that that was the last time we saw McCown, but I’d be shocked by a repeat performance from the Falcons D. The Ravens are a decent play at home vs Tennessee, and the Bills might be a nice mid-range option. Home vs the Chiefs in the lowest projected scoring game of the week. They have double digit fantasy points in 4/5 last weeks (the bad one was NE).
Week 10 is shaping up to be an interesting fantasy week, though aren’t they all by Monday night? I find myself leaning more toward a stars and scrubs style lineup this week, even in cash games. That makes finding the right value plays all the more important. Here you’ll find the cheapest viable plays I like at each position for Week 10.
QB
Derek Carr ($6800): This price is a tad too high for Carr. He has three single digit fantasy point games this season in which he threw for less than 200 yds. In two of those, he didn’t throw a TD. He has a single 300+ yard game and just three multi-TD games. The Raiders are not good, and that’s reflected in their generous +11.5 point spread vs Denver this week. Denver, however, gives up fantasy points to almost anyone. The only really bad performance against them came at the questionable hands of Drew Stanton. I’m not giving the Broncos D credit for that 4.72 fpt game. Even Geno Smith got 15 fpts against them. Oakland’s pass blocking rates in the top 10 per PFF, while Denver’s pass rush is just average. I think Carr is the best value QB for Week 10 in what should be a high scoring, garbage time affair.
Advice: The other starters in our price range for this article would be Josh McCown ($5700), Zach Mettenberger ($6100), Brian Hoyer ($6300), and Blake Bortles ($6300). I’m not using any of them in my lineups. McCown faces the Falcons that decimated him and the Bucs the last time he played. He comes in cold to an offense that was seemingly starting to click with Glennon. I don’t get it. Hoyer is probably safe, but it is a Thursday night game and he’ll face a Bengals offense that should have their passing game back might limit his chances. He’s also without TE Jordan Cameron again on the short week and the Browns’ O line is still poor. Mettenberger might be an okay GPP play. I’m targeting Tennessee receivers a little bit, but I don’t think I’m letting a lineup rest on Mettenberger’s shoulders yet. Bortles is in London vs the Cowboys. He has been solid enough the past four weeks to warrant discount QB consideration for cash games, but the game being overseas vs a very different Cowboys team without Romo is making me think twice. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and others have such good matchups this weekend it’s really hard not to spend at QB for me. Even in the mid-range, you have Matt Ryan and Cam Newton whom I like a lot to bounce back this week.
RB
Jeremy Hill ($6800): He didn’t let us down last week and I consider him an equally good play this week, even at this salary, if you’re playing slates including Thursday. He went for 154 and 2 TDs in Week 9 vs the Jaguars. It’s possible that the Browns are nearly as good of a matchup, ranking in top 10 fpts allowed to RB (ESPN) and rating in the bottom half of the league for run defense per PFF. Hill, on the other hand, is making the most of his limited work thus far in 2014, with 0.65 fpts/touch (PFF). He’s pricier than last week, but should still pay off nicely.
Justin Forsett/Lorenzo Taliaferro ($6500/6300): I’m confident that a Ravens RB will be good this weekend. Which one is harder to predict. The past two weeks, these two have both been involved almost equally in the passing game. Forsett is getting more carries and yards on the ground, while Taliaferro has scored 2 TDs. In terms of fpts/opportunity, Taliaferro blows Forsett away, 0.7 to 0.45, but opportunities are a necessary part of fantasy football. Forsett is the safer play, Taliaferro is the upside play. Going against the weak Tennessee defense, it’s possible they both have value this week.
Advice: It’s tempting to look to TB for the RB facing the Falcons, but that is a messy situation. I’d guess Bobby Rainey ($6700), but Charles Sims might be the sneaky upside play ($4800). Hopefully we’ll have more information by Sunday to take advantage of the plus matchup here. Davonta Freeman and Isaiah Crowell also stand out as guys that could break out this week, but without evidence that they’ll be seeing the ball more, I can’t recommend them. I’m avoiding the cheap plays from Buffalo, St Louis, and Tennessee as well.
WR
James Jones ($5400): For the same reason I like Carr, I like Jones. He’s priced $1000 less than teammate Andre Holmes, but in every other respect they’re the same fantasy WR. Both are averaging 10 fpts/game, both have one great game and a couple 3-5 pt games under their belts. They’ve been playing a similar number of snaps. Holmes has one more TD than Jones on the season, but if you want exposure to this garbage time, I mean game, I can’t see paying up for Holmes.
Justin Hunter ($5400): Last week Hunter had four receptions, one for a TD. It wasn’t a huge fantasy day, but it was a good sign that Mettenberger looked for him 10 times. While expectations on the 6’4″ 200 lb WR have been high all year, he’s gone through three QBs on an offense where scoring happens pretty rarely. That makes it hard to use him for DFS, but on the plus side, the Titans face the Ravens this week. Despite overall having one of the best defenses in the league, Baltimore bleeds fantasy points to opposing WRs. Of the teams playing this week, only TB is worse. The low price tag with the good matchup coming off the Bye is enough for me to buy into Hunter again.
Advice: Another cheap play I like is Stevie Johnson ($5500). This should be a high scoring and close game in NO. He’s been very efficient with his limited targets so far, averaging 8.5 fpts/game with 3TDs. He’s a cheap way to get in on this game. It’s nice to see Mike Evans‘ price shot up, sort of. He’s been one of my favorites for this space, but at $6600, I’m not buying with Josh McCown under center. Davante Adams, another fave, is very much in play at $5200. I alluded to my Rodgers love earlier. Again, Adams is a dirt cheap way to access some of that GB power.
TE
Larry Donnell ($5300): Here’s hoping he sneaks into Preston Parker‘s jersey and steals some of those wasted targets from Monday night. Donnell did catch a TD in that game, and now gets Seattle, the league’s 4th most generous defense to TE. They’ve given up 10 TDs, just one fewer than the Jets. Larry Donnell can catch 3 TDs in a single game, lest you forget. I’m not expecting that, but one or two is not out of the question here.
Lance Kendricks ($4700): This is purely the matchup with Arizona driving me. Austin Davis has struggled but when they get in the red zone, he seems to look to Kendricks often. He has 4 TDs so far, on just 17 receptions! This is by no means a volume play, just a bet that if the Rams score, it’ll be at the hands of Kendricks. Jared Cook ($4800) probably makes the better volume play, but where TDs are king, I’m using Kendricks.
Advice: I have Donnell in a few lineups so far. Jimmy Graham is the TE you want to spend on if you can do it. It’s hard to trust anyone in the second tier either, so I’m fine with punting TE this week. Another interesting option is Mychal Rivera, who has 15 receptions and 2TDs in his last two games ($5700). All the Raiders. Oh dear.
Defense
Carolina ($4500): They will take on the Mark Sanchez led Eagles. The end. They’re truly a punt, minimum salary option. Which is funny, because as recently as 3-4 weeks ago, they were still FanDuel’s top priced D. I can’t say much good about the Panthers’ actual defensive prowess, except that their 16 takeaways are tied for 5th in the league. Which brings me back to Sanchez and his generosity when it comes to giveaways…
Advice: Some people will be on Atlanta after they exploded against TB the last time these teams met, but probably not I. Of course, it’s a little ironic that that was the last time we saw McCown, but I’d be shocked by a repeat performance from the Falcons D. The Ravens are a decent play at home vs Tennessee, and the Bills might be a nice mid-range option. Home vs the Chiefs in the lowest projected scoring game of the week. They have double digit fantasy points in 4/5 last weeks (the bad one was NE).
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