This is our weekly college football gambling column. It’s called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING.
A 10-9 Week 10 brings me to 87-76, -$730 as we enter Week 11. This week features a lot of interesting games. All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
1. Utah State at Wyoming +7: Utah State beat Hawaii by 21 with a fourth-string QB thanks in large part to turnovers. Wyoming is coming off a nice win against Fresno State and could spring the home upset.
2. Kansas State at TCU -6 (+100): An elimination game for the loser. Look for the Horned Frogs to do a better job defending the pop pass than some have against the Wildcats.
3. Notre Dame at Arizona State Over 59: Both teams want to push tempo, and both have offenses that are better than their defenses. Additionally, while Arizona State’s defense is improved over the last few weeks statistically, it’s important to note that it played three very questionable offenses in Stanford, Washington (in a huge windstorm and without its starting QB, Cyler Miles), and Utah (without its best receiver, Dres Anderson).
4. Ohio State at Michigan State -3 (-115): The Spartans are not playing defense as great this year as they were last, but the offense is much improved. I don’t believe J.T. Barrett will be able to go into East Lansing and get the win for the Buckeyes without a better running performance from the backs.
5. Baylor at Oklahoma -6: Baylor is not a good road team under Art Briles, and the offense is not clicking this year quite like it was a year ago. Oklahoma offers value at under a touchdown, because it lost to Kansas State thanks to two missed kicks and is out of the Playoff conversation. Look for Trevor Knight to run more in this game for the Sooners.
6. Alabama at LSU Under 45: Alabama’s offense has been considerably less potent on the road than it has at home, and the Tide have the bulk up front to stand up to LSU’s run game in a way that Ole Miss did not.
7. Georgia Tech at N.C. State +4: N.C. State’s defense is stronger up front than it is against the pass, and the Yellow Jackets are vulnerable to the pass, having allowed 7.5 or more yards/attempt five times this season.
8. Georgia -10 at Kentucky: Mark Richt’s teams are typically strong on the road, and Georgia, though it is no longer in the division driver’s seat, should come out angry against a Kentucky team that has allowed a lot of rushing yards this year.
9. Iowa at Minnesota +2: Minnesota is off a bye week and the public is absolutely loving the Hawkeyes after they finally put together a complete game on offense and defense last week against Northwestern. I’m not convinced that the separation between the mid-tier Big Ten teams is all that much, and will back the dog at home.
10. West Virginia at Texas +4: Texas continues to play solid defense, and I’m not sure West Virginia will be able to get off the mat after its heartbreaking loss to TCU last week. Look for Tyrone Swoopes to use his legs a lot more in this game.
11. Virginia at Florida State -19: Virginia loves to blitz, which FSU has handled well, and its running game has been pedestrian of late. There is concern here that Florida State could be looking ahead to Miami, but the Seminoles did get two extra days of rest after a Thursday night win at Louisville, and most of FSU’s starters are expected back healthy.
12. UTEP at Western Kentucky -7: The Hilltoppers’ offense had been very consistent this year before bombing against Louisiana Tech last week. I’m expecting a bounceback performance against a UTEP team that was extremely lucky to win by as much as it did against Southern Mississippi (25 points via turnovers).
13. UTSA +10 at Rice: UTSA has had some bad turnover luck the last two times out, and is off a bye. Rice, meanwhile, has had favorable turnover luck of late. If it evens out in both directions, this should be a close game.
14. Florida at Vanderbilt +14.5: Will Florida really be motivated to come out and crush Vanderbilt after its big win over Georgia? The offense for the Commodores has been terrible this year, but QB play has been better of late, and the defense isn’t bad.
15. Michigan at Northwestern +1.5: I bet on Michigan the last three weeks, going 2-1, but now Michigan must go on the road and face a better offense than the Indiana team it crushed last week. Look for Northwestern to have a bounce back game keyed by its defense.
16. Penn State at Indiana Under 45: Indiana’s Zander Diamont has thrown for 35 yards on 23 passes this season after being thrust into the starting role. That’s 1.5 yards/attempt. Penn State’s offense isn’t great, but its defense can stop the run, which is pretty much all Indiana can do. This will go under barring a lot of short fields created by turnovers.
17. UCLA -5 at Washington: Washington is a very public underdog (72 percent of wagers on the Huskies at Bookmaker.eu), and betting against the public when it decides to back an underdog is a winning strategy.
18. Wisconsin at Purdue +17 (-105): This is another play against the public. Wisconsin has been rolling, but now it plays its second road game in as many weeks and with Nebraska on deck, this is a possible lookahead spot.
19. Louisville -3 at Boson College: This is almost certainly a sucker’s bet, but Louisville’s offense is legit with the return of Michael Dyer and DeVante Parker, and Boston College has not played many good offenses this season. I do worry about a hangover for Louisville after the Florida State loss, but they get two extra days to rest up.
20. Iowa State at Kansas +3.5 (-105): Kansas can play some decent defense, and Iowa State really struggles to get stops. With two bad teams, give me the better defense at home catching points.
21. UConn at Army +4.5: UConn benefitted from almost 10 points of turnovers in upsetting UCF last week. Will it be focused off such a big win to come out and dominate Army?
22. Texas A&M at Auburn -21 (-115): Texas A&M looks like a mess, and while Auburn’s defense is not the best, it should be able to get a lead and get some stops against the young Aggies.
23. Air Force at UNLV +5.5 (100): I’ll be taking the points in what could be a shootout in the desert.
24. Idaho +21 at San Diego State: Idaho lost by 16 last weekend at Arkansas State, but 27 points were a result of turnovers, which is a bit deceptive. Look for the Vandals to get a stop or two and to score a bit of their own, losing by a number in the teens.
25. Colorado +17 at Arizona: A pretty crushing loss for Arizona last weekend at UCLA may be tough to recover from. Colorado is playing better defense over the last few weeks.
26. Boise State -18 (+100) at New Mexico: New Mexico has benefited from a ton of turnovers of late, and Boise State is coming off a bye week.
Biggest rooting interest of the weekend: Duke. I have the Blue Devils at +1500 to win the division, and a win at Syracuse would make them 4-1 in the conference. More on how all of my futures are doing in next week’s column.
What are your favorite bets of the weekend?
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.